Blogpoll Draft Ballot

by BSD on Nov 26, 2007 3:44 PM EST in Football

Here it is.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Missouri	2
2	Ohio State	2
3	West Virginia	2
4	LSU	3
5	Georgia	1
6	Oklahoma	2
7	Kansas	5
8	Virginia Tech	2
9	Southern Cal	2
10	Florida	2
11	Boston College	3
12	Arizona State	5
13	Illinois	2
14	Tennessee	9
15	Clemson	2
16	Auburn	2
17	Hawaii	2
18	Texas	5
19	Oregon	10
20	Wisconsin	--
21	Texas Tech	--
22	Virginia	6
23	Cincinnati	3
24	South Florida	2
25	Brigham Young	1

Dropped Out: Connecticut (#22), Boise State (#25).

We're coming up on the part of the season where anything outside of the top five really doesn't matter. So I put most of my effort into evaluating those teams. How do you separate three teams all with one loss? Charts? Charts.

Looking at the wins for the top three there isn't one in there that really stands out from the rest. So ranking them on the quality of their losses I think Oklahoma > Illinois > South Florida. Hence the ranking.

It's really tempting to keep LSU in the top two based on the quality of their wins, but it seems like they peaked pretty early this season and they've looked pretty human lately even in their wins. Right now I'm not convinced they are one of the top two teams in the country.

Anyway, there's the ballot. Pick it apart. Like I said I really don't care after the top 5, but if there is something obviously out of whack I'll fix it.

**Top Five Comparison**
Rank	Team	Record	Best Wins	Losses
1	Missouri	11 - 1	Illinois, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Kansas	Oklahoma
2	Ohio State	11 - 1	Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan	Illinois
3	West Virginia	10 - 1	Rutgers, Cincinnati, UConn	South Florida
4	LSU	10 - 2	VA Tech, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, Alabama	Kentucky, Arkansas
5	Georgia	10 - 2	Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky	Tennessee, South Carolina

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Maybe it's just me...

...but does anyone else think that Arizona State is really no different than the last two year's versions of Notre Dame (their BCS years)? Beat the teams you should, get blown out by the good teams, sneak into the BCS because your overall strength of schedule is pretty weak. Odds are they'll get snapped up by the Fiesta Bowl (proximity), instead of (in my opinion) a more deserving Illinois team which only has one more loss because they played a damn close game on the road against the #1 team in the country.

Just my opinion...

by Cpiritual27 on Nov 26, 2007 7:40 PM EST reply actions

Illinois

If Ohio State can sneak into the championship game I could see the Rose Bowl taking Illinois. They like to preserve the Big Ten vs. PAC-10 matchup whenever they can.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

Hail to the Lion!

by BSD on Nov 26, 2007 8:28 PM EST reply actions

Missouri's best wins?

How is Illinois not a better win than Nebraska or Texas Tech? (Nitpicking, I know, since you already have them #1. But that ought to remove all doubt.)

And I think a case could be made for VT over Georgia. Their losses are certainly much better (BC and LSU), and I'm not convinced there's a big difference in good wins either. (For that matter, OU's close - and if they beat Missouri again they definitely belong in front of Georgia, "when you lost" be damned.) But barring the Doomsday Scenario (OU wins and Pitt pulls a shocker), that's not going to matter.

Also, Illinois might get in the BCS even if OSU doesn't get bumped up into the title game. If USC and Arizona win (limiting the Pac-10 to one slot) and VT beats BC (limiting the ACC to one), it's pretty much automatic - the Big East is only getting one as well, so in order to pull 10 teams they'll have to take Hawaii and two each from the SEC, Big XII, and Big Ten.

by SpartanDan on Nov 26, 2007 8:54 PM EST reply actions

Good point about Illinois

Just an oversight on my part, though they were lucky to knock Juice out of the game in the first quarter.

I already have Illinois ranked #1 so I guess the point is moot.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

Hail to the Lion!

by BSD on Nov 26, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Turnovers

If WVU doesn't turn the ball over they'll beat anyone they play, especially with their speed on the turf inside the Superdome.

by Joe 96alum on Nov 26, 2007 10:27 PM EST reply actions

Here's one

Auburn drops Seven Spots for winning the Iron Bowl? That seems harsh.

For the Glory National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,

by jesse. on Nov 27, 2007 11:03 AM EST reply actions

Excellent point

It's been fixed. That's why we post these ballots: to catch glaring mistakes like that. Imagine the writers out there who don't have people looking over their shoulder when they put their ballot together. You can bet they have some pretty serious oversights.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

Hail to the Lion!

by BSD on Nov 27, 2007 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

Ohio State

Here they go again, trying to get them in the National Title game. Now my point is, they are always screaming about wins that don't help you am I correct? Now OSU beat Michigan and that win shouldn't count for much. Because, Michigan lost to App State, which lost 2 games this year, and they lost to Oregon which has 2 losses now and lost to UCLA which lost to Notre Dame. How the hell does there out of conference MAC wins count as a good win, they beat PSU which just lost to a 6-5 MSU team and lost to Michigan which starts that whole cycle over. They beat Wisconsin, who beat MSU which beat PSU. They have no quality wins, they didn't get taxed hard enough for losing to Illinois. This whole thing is pretty biased to only big schools in major conferences. Someone made an excellent point, they want to credit a team like OSU for winning weak non conference games and skating through with a loss or maybe two and still give them BCS berths, but in the same breath show nothing to Hawaii who plays the schedule they are given. Considering a few teams ducked them, i.e. Michigan State and the "ol mighty" Texas. Another thing is, the Big Ten should have to play the last two weeks like everyone else, that's a bunch of crap. Because they can sit around and let other teams eliminate each other and keep moving up based on their final standings. If OSU had to still play, it would be alot better and more fair to other teams like Mizzou and Kansas that still are playing their ways basically out of the Title game.

WE ARE, PENN STATE!

by LinebackerU on Nov 27, 2007 11:39 AM EST reply actions

It cuts both ways

Let's not forget last year that Florida jumped over Michigan, in no small part because Michigan was idle for the last two weeks.

Besides, it's not like anyone else has done much better this year. A normal year, OSU should not be in contention - but when there are three other one-loss BCS teams (I'll get to Hawaii later), and one of them has a far, far worse schedule, guess where you end up? Sitting at #3. And don't bother with transitive analysis, that makes everyone look pretty bad - Missouri's best win is over a team who hasn't played anyone else, and their next is over a team that lost to Colorado who lost to Iowa State. West Virginia's best wins are over a team that needed a horribly blown call to beat Temple and over a team that lost to Pitt. So apparently no one deserves to be anywhere near the top.

(Frankly, I don't care at all for Hawaii's complaints about scheduling - maybe if their refs weren't the most blatant homers in history against NW and MSU in 2004 [when, it should be noted, they had to win both games to make a bowl at all], and maybe if their players didn't take cheap shots at the opponent when they're getting blown out like they did in Lansing in 2005, they wouldn't have such problems. Yes, the fact that beating them brings no glory and losing to them brings only ignominy has something to do with it. But they get no sympathy from me, because of the aforementioned incidents. And their schedule isn't just bad, it's abominable - three dozen 1-AA teams have played tougher slates. Every other good non-BCS team has managed to do better than that, most by a wide margin. Give them a BCS game if they beat Washington, but they do not belong in the title game when their second-toughest game on the season is against a Pac-10 bottom-dweller. Might even be the toughest, seeing as said Pac-10 bottom-dweller beat their next-toughest opponent. I could name 40 teams that would probably be unbeaten against that schedule.)

by SpartanDan on Nov 27, 2007 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

No

first off you missed my point about Hawaii, I'm not saying they should be in the BCS title game. I'm just saying that nobody wants to play them and if they beat that joke named the Huskies, they should get a BCS game. Speaking of events that happened two or 3 years gao is really irrelevant to playing the 2007 Hawaii Warriors. Being that most of those kids might not even be on the team. MSU wouldn't win that game,that's the only reason they didn't schedule them. It might be a shootout, but I can assure you this hawaii's offense with brennan in is vastly different from the past, and they'd spank that ass when it comes to Northwetern, they(MSU and NU) both don't play defense if you forgot. Oh you probably left out that they offered to go to the states to play some of these schools, get your facts straight first. EVERYBODY knows their schedule is weak, it's ranked 119th. They finally get to play Florida and USC(again) I believe next year, but after the trio of recievers and brennan will be gone.... with the combination of wide receivers and and Brennan(who is one of the few QB's in college football who actually makes reads, like Harrell) gets no credit because he's in a "system" which is another topic, would spank the hell out of MSU. Not to many teams would want to get embarassed by losing to a "system" team, but the truth is Big Ten teams can't handle the spread for crap and that team would just sling the ball all over MSU, THAT'S why the didn't play them If Hawaii played both, it'd probably be a shootout, but it'd just be another embarassing loss for the "MIGHTY" Big ten, after having your preseason Top 5 team loses to a 1-AA Team, hey at least Hawaii beats their 1-AA opponents right?? You can talk about the past all you want, but people who actually seen both play this year would know, besides the fact that MSU blows games regardless or struggles against elite teams such as Northwestern, Pitt, Iowa, or that MAC juggernat Bowling Green..., just to name a few.

As for using who beats who, the analysts do it with everybody except OSU. As for you getting wise about "nobody belongs near the top then" well if you'd like to see another blowout BCS championship let them go. The truth is they always use that argument, and with that being the case a Michigan win shouldn't count for much. And they should have to play these last two weeks of the season like everyone else, oh wait they'd probably schedule some more rough and tough Ohio teams. Oh speaking of UConn, who did get by on the refs against temple(and a few other games, weak arguement), they beat akron by 34 and ohio state struggled against the zips, if you want to bring UConn in to this, and I think another average team(like OSU). Maybe you think Ohio State is such a juggernaut because they man handle the Spartans? Or because they give them points on turnovers? And MSU still can't win... Regardless of schedules this year(which can always be an arguement each and every year) OSU would get blown up by West Virginia, Mizzou, Oklahoma, and Florida would probably blow them out again this year. Hell SEC teams could line up for that one. OSU is a fairly average team when you look around the country. They might be considered a juggernaut considering they beat up on those tough tough tough Ohio teams from the MAC, or is it because they won 20 games in a row in the Big Ten? You know for them, playing Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue and MSU are pretty much gimme games. There just riding the name of their university to stay in the national title talk, because anybody who has seen a vast array of college football this year, knows OSU wouldn't win any serious non conference games. If they had the balls to schedule them. Just like their buddies in maize n blue who got just what they deserve, trying to schedule a 1-AA team and giving them some odd million thinking they'd take home an easy W.

WE ARE, PENN STATE!

by LinebackerU on Nov 27, 2007 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

OSU

I am by no means an OSU school, but they do schedule out of conference games such as Texas (two years ago) and USC next two years.

How about this simple explanation. There aren't any great teams this year. USC right now is the best team in the nation, but they had several key injuries in the early part of the season and lost two games. Beyond USC, there are a bunch of above average teams.

by Nick7 on Nov 27, 2007 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

USC

I agree their isn't any great teams, but the great team search usually comes within a decade of football. Just my personal opinion, greatness is a very high level of play offensive and defensive. USC is definately a top tier team, if they would've had cj gable and stefon johnson both healthy for that stanford game they would've won. It almost seems like Carroll thinks he to good to do a rb by commitee thing. Also the Oregon game they where driving to tie then threw a pick. The defense is off the wall, Big Rey and LB's over pursue a bit out of aggressiveness, but that D has so many 1st round picks it's not even funny.

WE ARE, PENN STATE!

by LinebackerU on Nov 27, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions

OSU

>> It might be a shootout, but I can assure you this hawaii's offense with brennan in is vastly different from the past

You mean what they had under Timmy Chang, who also threw for eleventy billion touchdowns a season when they got destroyed in Lansing two years ago?

I'm not scared by a team that needs overtime to beat Louisiana Tech and San Jose State.

(And for all the trash talk about MSU, you might want to remember who won a week and a half ago.)

As for the OSU argument, you're still cherry-picking your data points. You're taking OSU's opponents' worst games and everyone else's best. Of course OSU is going to come off looking worse. I think WV would beat OSU ... but you're simply not making a fair comparison.

by SpartanDan on Nov 27, 2007 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

I think

comparing Chang and Brennan is like compare apples and oranges honestly. Chang set the record for picks, Brennan is no where near that. Brennan is extremely efficient,I wish they would play MSU this year. I'd bet you any amount of money they'd win that game. I'm sure they would kill MSU, like I said no Big 10 team handles a spread offense well and I'm sure MSU is no elite team, especially in the Big 10.

And talking about you won the game a week and a half ago, get over it. Your team danced around like a bunch of women after beating a team who is fairly average, with a overated secondary(that gets carved up by anyone who has a decent receiver) so by you guys throwing the ball to only 2 people and PSU not being able to cover that is almost as sad as the way MSU celebrated after the game. MSU is a joke, you had a shootout with NORTHWESTERN!!! Minnesota and Nevada had shootouts with Northwestern.....

As for OSU, my point has been proven, you just believe OSU is this great team because they hand you the business every time. That's funny. No one is taking "OSU's worst opponents" and "everyone else's best" I'm simply tking the meat of their schedule. I named about every team they played, mac Ohio teams, and those gimme Big 10 games, I didn't name Michigan and PSU and that's about it....OSU hands PSU the business quite often, but the reality is OSU isn't that good. Just face the music like the rest of us, we get beat up on by an average team from the national standpoint.

Another thing, if you don't think those 4 teams I named, wouldn't blow OSU out if both brought their A Game, your crazy. If you haven't been watching Big Ten football for the last some odd years, you'd know we can't compete with speed in the open. And all of those teams have great speed in the open.

WE ARE, PENN STATE!

by LinebackerU on Nov 27, 2007 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Like it or not

I think if you objectively compare Ohio State's best wins (Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan) to West Virginia's (Rutgers, Cincinnati, UConn) then compare their losses South Florida versus Illinois, it is really hard to make an argument that WVU is more deserving than OSU. That is without considering OSU got killed by Florida in the title game last year, and I don't like Ohio State.

Keep in mind that Ohio State lost late in the season and started ranked behind WVU in the preseason polls. So it's not like Ohio State started #1, then lost and dropped only a few spots like LSU. They started in the mid-teens, won their way up to number one, got killed after their loss, then got lucky and the teams in front of them lost.

Conversely, WVU started in the top ten, lost to a three loss USF team (their toughest road game) dropped off the face of the earth for a month while they got their best wins against what amount to top three finishers in mid-major conferences, and then appeared ranked number two. Seriously, Rutgers, Cincy and UConn are their best three wins, and an undefeated Hawaii team can't even get a sniff at the National Title game? That's absurd.

Do you honestly think that...
UConn could come to State College and beat Penn State?
That Rutgers could go to Madison and beat Wisconsin?
That Michigan wouldn't beat Cincinnati by three score on the dark side of the moon?

If anybody has benefited from a soft league schedule and a year where everybody has lost, it's West Virginia. Hawaii's best three wins are against Nevada, Boise State and Fresno State, with no losses on the ledger, I find that resume at least as impressive as WVU's

For the Glory National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,

by jesse. on Nov 27, 2007 12:21 PM EST reply actions

I know I'm kicking a dead horse

here, and that Michigan did win a National Championship in '97 and Ohio State won a National Championship in '02, but I will not root for a Big Ten team to win a national championship until we win another one. That was a joke the way we absolutely pummeled OSU in '94 (63-14, in case anybody forgot), then their beat writers go home and vote Nebraska #1. And that was even after they were talking shit about that they were going to beat us. Can anybody remember the last time a #1 team won that big, and then dropped? I don't care. I'm rooting for Mizzou and WVU this weekend. #$*! the Buckeyes!!!

by Ab4PSU on Nov 27, 2007 3:03 PM EST reply actions