Like you said, there are many UM fans that are level-headed about this game. And I highly respect that. However there are those few that say “Michigan a lock for the upset”. It just makes me lawl.

Obviously I can only speak for myself, but I fully realize the two teams are at very different points in their development. Michigan absolutely will not move the ball on offense, and will need to play their best game of the season on D (3rd down and red zone being the keys) to keep PSU below 30 points. I’d put the odds of Michigan winning at between 0 and 10%, probably closer to 0.

That said, I’ll be at Beaver Stadium cheering for Michigan, taking abuse from frustrated PSU fans (incl. the wife).
  
Go Blue.

We weren’t married in 02, but I get the point. And I graduated from UM, so yes, outside of work you have a 50% change of seeing me in Michigan clothing.

I’m always surprised at the level of hatred towards UM among the average PSU fan, given the relatively short rivalry. I guess 9 in a row will do that.

Michigan more than any other team then Pitt. We went there last year, and almost every person that saw us with PSU stuff in treated us like absolute shit. That said, DO NOT treat them like shit this year. We’re PSU we’re better than that. Even though, theyre fans love to come here and push us around. Regardless, Michigan is a mind battle for us, and I hope we’re not underestimating what this game could turn into.

where I’d concur with this suggestion… but this is DEFINITELY one of them. Rodriguez deserves it. Shaw deserves it. Michigan’s fans absolutely deserve it. The streak’s gonna end and end violently at that! Let’s hang up as many points as we possibly can!

Go Lions!!!!

The premise of this post is silly. Of course there are a few U-M fans who’ve suggested our school has a chance Saturday, just as there are a few lunatics running sites like firejtressel.com. Need we start a thread discussing why firing Tressel is absurd? So why start this one?

Strawmen aside, I’m expecting a replay of OSU-PSU ‘94. We Michigan fans know what we’re in for. We know we have it coming.

Stating that "sorry Michigan, you don’t stand a chance" is sillier than saying "if it doesn’t happen this year, it will never happen." Come on! You said that same thing last year! A scant year latter, you’re declaring this year’s game as unloozable. You should know better.

Michigan has a chance. And its more than an Appy St v. UM chance, or “so you’re saying there’s a chance” chance. And even though I would place the odds of PSU winning by more than 27.5 points at around 50%, I still say that UM’s chance of emerging with an actual ‘W’ are higher than slim.

Exhibit "A" 2007 Michigan 27 Illinois 17
Michigan isn’t scoring 27 against PSU sat. Even though they played this game without Hart, and without Henne for a large part, Jake Long’s not walking through that door. Mario Manningham’s not walking through that door. Even Adam Kraus isn’t walking through that door. I reference this game because of the defensive performance. Illinois had Juice, a monster back in Mendenhall, and the spread which had killed UM all season (more so than 2008). Illinois was playing at home, at night, and they were dying to knock UM down.

Exhibit "B" 2008 PSU 20 Purdue 6
PSU’s offense has been very impressive this season, unquestionably. But three weeks ago, they only managed 20 against Purdue. Was Purdue some sort of an explainable aberration? PSU didn’t turn it over and had only 4 penalties for 30 yards so its not like they shot themselves in the foot all day long. They moved the ball but just didn’t score it. PSU is not the ‘96 Cornhuskers people. As good as their "O" has been halfway in they are not immune from an off day.

UM’s defense is extremely talented. Agreed? They have been haunted by big breakdowns in every game they’ve played, and continue to be plagued by problems against the "spread". They have key weak links on that side of the ball which they have not overcome, and which will keep the season ending results below what their overall talent suggests. They are not a great defense and therefore shouldn’t be counted on to play great on sat. Still, with the amount of veteran talent on that side of the ball I fully expect that there will be one or two anomalies this season in which they play great. Games where they manage to cover up their weakness and/or the opposition fails to fully exploit them. Will sat be one of those days?

Don’t put me in the "Michigan’s defense will keep them in the game camp." But don’t give me the "You can’t stop them. You can only choose which guy you are going to let beat you" line when PSU was stopped by Purdue a few weeks ago and no sane person would say that Purdue’s defense is better on paper or on the field than UM’s.

I set the baseline for UM victory at 20 PSU pts. I don’t expect UM to hold PSU to 20 and I don’t predict them to. But IMO it is well within the realm of possibility in the event that UM’s D plays good and PSU’S O plays okay, or PSU’s O plays good and UM’s D plays great.

So can UM’s offense score 21?

I think this is where the "you’re stupid if you even dare think that UM has a slim chance to win the game" ‘tude comes from. UM’s offense has been historically dreadful. They lead the nation in turnovers. More staggering, 50% of their offensive plays go for negative yardage or no gain! PSU has a good swarming defense and will play in UM’s backfield all day. The UM O – PSU D inequity is the main reason why PSU is a 4 touchdown favorite.

But look at it this way. Going against a swarming defense that plays in its backfield all day and holds half the plays to no gain or negative yardage is the norm for UM. They’re used to it. Yet somehow, anyone who has watched UM play this year knows that in every game they’ve gone on between 2-5 inexplicably good, long, drives. They have very few good plays per game, but somehow they manage to put most of those plays together in the same drives. I see no reason why this will not continue against PSU. The question is whether they will score on these drives, or toss pick 6s into the endzone. If they get a couple tudders?

As PSU fans, I’m sure you’re intimately familiar with some variation on this quote, "Yes, that kid from FIU ran for 200 yards on 25 carries against our defense. But a 125 of those yards came on 2 touchdown runs of 50 and 75 yards. So if you take those two carries away, we held him to 3.2 yards per carry. Which is actually pretty good."

This is a maddening quote because, yes, YOU DID allow those two runs. Your rush defense is not good. And this post is just like one of those quotes. Its built on ifs and maybes. But not THAT many ifs and maybes.

The fact is, Michigan is not a good team. Penn State is a good team. If Michigan beats PSU on sat, that will not mean UM is a good football team or that PSU is a bad football team. PSU has the superior football team this season, but the gap is not wide enough to prevent UM from winning if it gets couple more big plays and a couple more lucky breaks (or absence of bad breaks) on each side of the ball than they’ve had so far this season.

I didn’t watch the game, but the box score shows 420 in offense and no turnovers. I think Royster had over 170 on the ground and Clark 220 in the air. I don’t know if they limited their offense, but they moved the shit out of the ball regardless. To have that many yards of offense with no TOs and only score 20, you are not capitalizing crossing the 50 and/or their punter is having a hell of a day.

My main point is that this was not even a bad game for PSU. It just looks like one of those days we’ve all seen as a college football fan where it seems like you are dominating the game but not getting the points to show for it.