Experts Say Penn State Good, But Not Good Enough
(H/T to the Fanposts for this one.)
Penn State is getting more and more talk about the National Title after our impressive first half of the season. The so-called "experts" at CNNSI have put together their bowl projects and Penn State gets a lot of love.
BCS projections
Mandel:
National title: Texas vs. Penn State
Rose: USC vs. Florida
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Sugar: Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Orange: Wake Forest vs. Boise StateStaples:
National title: USC vs. Penn State
Rose: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Fiesta: Texas vs. BYU
Sugar: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Wake Forest vs. South FloridaMcCartney:
National title: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. BYU
Sugar: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. PittsburghWinn:
National title: USC vs. Penn State
Rose: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta: Texas vs. BYU
Sugar: Florida vs. Boise State
Orange: Wake Forest vs. CincinnatiMarkazi:
National title: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: USC vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Penn State
Sugar: Florida vs. BYU
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. CincinnatiTrocchi:
National title: USC vs. Penn State
Rose: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Fiesta: Missouri vs. BYU
Sugar: Florida vs. Texas
Orange: Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh
Wow. Four out of six pick our Nittany Lions to play for the National Championship. And how do those guys see the national title game going for us?
Mandel: Texas. The 'Horns will lose once but get in with their impressive résumé. Their swarming defensive front will spoil JoePa's retirement sendoff.
Is this the same swarming defense that gave up 35 points to Oklahoma?
Staples: USC. Unfortunately for the SEC and Big 12, the conferences are so deep that it seems unlikely the champs will escape with one or zero losses. By December, USC's loss at Oregon State will be forgotten, and the Trojans will beat a previously undefeated Penn State.Winn: USC. Thanks to Big 12 and SEC attrition, the Trojans will creep back up to No. 2 by season's end -- and then shut down the Spread HD in the title game.
Trocchi: USC. Pete Carroll adds to his trophy case and sends JoePa into retirement with an almost-perfect season.
I see. Everyone will forget USC's loss to Oregon State. I guess these guys have already forgotten what happened to Oregon State in Beaver Stadium.
Filice: Alabama. By containing Florida's electric playmakers in the SEC title game and taming Penn State's Spread HD in Miami, the Crimson Tide will prove once again that national titles are won in the trenches.
Indeed. The trenches.
| Alabama | Penn State | |
| Rushing Offense | 226.3 (15) | 235.1 (12) |
| Sacks Allowed/Game | 1.5 (43) | .86 (12) |
| Rushing Defense | 50.8 (2) | 89.9 (11) |
| Sacks/Game | 1.7 (68) | 2.7 (17) |
Man. We suck.
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One game at a time
We’ll see who’s talking in January.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 16, 2008 4:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
But since they are talking about it I think it’s fair game to respond to their flawed logic. This just underscores the fact that nobody is taking us seriously yet. I’m sure these writers think we’re only going to the title game because we play in a weak conference and have no business being there.
I’m just giving Jay Paterno something to print out and show to the team. LOL
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Oct 16, 2008 4:51 PM EDT
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Alabama's rush defense
is admittedly pretty good, and not sure how the other matchups look like (especially pass defense) but I would say we at least match up well against them. Plus they’ve looked soft against some easy teams, while our worst win (so far) was a 14 point victory, away, that was narrowed due to field conditions.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 16, 2008 4:52 PM EDT 0 recs
Some other numbers
Passing offense – 152 (104)
Total offense – 378 (52)
Pass Defense – 211 (66)
Total Defense – 262 (10)
Their schedule the rest of the way has just LSU and Auburn, but then they probably meet Florida in the SEC championship game. I can’t wait to hear Urban Meyer complaining that a one loss SEC team should go in ahead of any Big Ten team.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Oct 16, 2008 4:57 PM EDT
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To be fair.....
The Alabama DL has not gone against a top notch OL unit this year and I really don’t forsee them having to face one in the remainder of their SEC schedule. UGA was young ( pretty much all SO and FR…. and their C, the most important OL position is a true Freshman) before the season started and then lost their best OL (Sturdivant (sp?)) to injury before the season even began. I personally would love to see how our experienced line matched up with Bama. I also think Bama’s OL though big could not match up with the speed of our DL (ala Wisconsin)!
Wow….what a throw back NC game would that be …..PSU bama in Miami. Maybe it will be fate’s way of giving JoePa a chance to make up for the Sugar Bowl loss when Guman got stopped (or did he???) at the goal line.
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?
by pic15 on
Oct 17, 2008 10:18 AM EDT
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He did...
I coach with a former player from that Bama team…he has the pictures of all the goaline stops at his house…he rubs it in all the time…but at the same time he respects what JoePa said about that decision that if you can’t score from there you don’t deserve to win.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on
Oct 17, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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Yup
Bama LB Barry Krause hit Guman so hard he popped a rivet on his helmet.
A naked bootleg would have waltzed in to score. Especially on the 3rd down play.
Sigh. Just a stubborn coaching mistake.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on
Oct 18, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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I realized the problem
These idiots just read the head-lines and blurbs and don’t watch our games. They read that we have this ‘spread-HD’ offense, and that we’re winning by an average of 30 points.
They assume we’re a pass-happy offense like Hawaii of last year, who has no lines, and no rushing game. Therefore a decent defense will shut us down because we can’t win in the trenches.
I love NCAAF analysts — they spend 99% of their time fellating USC, Georgia, and Oklahoma and have to scramble for something to write about when those teams are locks for the NC game.
by millzners on Oct 16, 2008 4:58 PM EDT 0 recs
Hawaii last year had a decent running game. They just didn’t have an offensive line, which showed up quite often in the season, and hey, again in the bowl game.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on
Oct 16, 2008 6:55 PM EDT
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Hawaii sucked last year.....
They did not play quality opponents and hence got their assed whooped by the Dawgs in NO! Hopefully that debacle from last year will keep the Utah, BYU’s and TCU’s of the world out of the BCS this year!
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?
by pic15 on
Oct 17, 2008 10:20 AM EDT
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I disagree about letting previous years' performance
affect future teams…especially when it isn’t even a team from the same school.
Example: Hopefully that debacle of an OSU team from the last 2 years in the National Championship game will keep the Penn States, Ohio States, and Michigan States out of the National Championship game this year!
by The JuggerNitt on
Oct 17, 2008 10:39 AM EDT
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On that level....I agree....
But if you are a mid-major and don’t play quality or even average opponents all year….why should you get to play in the BCS.
Also even if OSU wins out and a one loss team makes it to the NC game… they will not be the team this year after their last two flops. You can take that to the bank!
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?
by pic15 on
Oct 17, 2008 11:51 AM EDT
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This is F'n killing me...
Why the F@#K to the so called “experts” forget that there are three phases to a football game and three units to a squad????
The BIGF’N12 doesn’t play 2 of the 3; defense or special teams…
i’ll give credit where credit is due… SEC is probably the best conference interms of being top heavy and haveing well rounded teams (offence, defense & special teams). BUT that number of well round teams in SEC doesn’t mean shittonpitt when considering a match-up with between Bama and PSU… or PSU and anyone else in the SEC…
drives me nuts..WTF
by WETSU on Oct 16, 2008 5:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Lots of football between now and then. Patience, grasshopper.
No one has yet to win a title because a writer decided it would be so in mid-October.
They don’t play the games on the interweb.
by Tailgate Shogun on Oct 16, 2008 5:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Aren’t Penn State’s numbers a little better than Alabama’s because their schedule is a lot worse? I finally got to see the Nittany Lions play on Saturday night, and wow, you should have been starting Darryl Clark all along, but Wisconsin is pretty bad. I know you’re about to scream “OREGON STATE” at me, but the Beavers have started slow the last few years and probably played a little better at home on a Thursday night game than an afternoon game across the country.
I’m not predicting who would win a Penn State/Alabama game – and I would love to see it – but to claim disrespect because of schedule-skewed numbers seems unnecessary.
http://www.rakesofmallow.com
by CW on Oct 16, 2008 6:35 PM EDT 0 recs
You're right
The one claim to Alabama winning against Penn State in the trenches could be very true.
However, even though they have two different strength of schedules, Penn State still has some decent stats.
Some stats are better than Alabama’s and some aren’t, but the fact that the stats are even close says that Alabama may not completely dominate (in the trenches) as much as people may think.
by GreatScawt on
Oct 16, 2008 7:26 PM EDT
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More Trench Talk
As a Tuscaloosa resident (who can see the Tide practice when I look out my living room window) and a lifelong Penn State fan, I’d be remiss if I didn’t chime in on this.
Alabama is just plain nasty in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. No way around that.
But let’s not just capitulate to those stats being skewed because of Penn State’s “easy” schedule. Alabama blew up Georgia, and that remains arguably the best win any team has had this season. Outside of that, they’ve pounded a mediocre Clemson team (honestly, is Clemson better than Oregon State? Um, hell no.), a lousy Arkansas outfit, and the mighty Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. They also strugled to the end with Tulane and an admittedly underrated Kentucky team.
That’s three bad teams, two okay teams, and one excellent team they’ve beaten. Plenty of room for the Tide to inflate stats, too.
by tuscaloosalion on
Oct 16, 2008 8:01 PM EDT
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And with Georgia
They fell behind big early so I wouldn’t be surprised if they did very little running in the second half.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Oct 16, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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While I don't live in Tuscaloosa,
I do go to alot of southern football games….I went to georgia vs South Carolina and Alabama vs Clemson, and will be travelling to the swamp nov 15 to see florida and South Carolina…I have also watched every single PSU game this year…I agree with you to an extent about Alabama’s oline (I am an offensive line coach myself so I pay particular attention to the lines). But PSU has a pretty darn good set of lines…the offensive line for PSU is a group that plays with a chip on its shoulder and knows how to finish their blocks…further more the defensive line for PSU is argueably deeper and more athletic than Alabama’s…
Bottom line is both teams are pretty good up front and it would be a great game to watch…I just don’t know if Alabama has the pass rushers to put consistant pressure on the PSU front 5 without bringing someone from the second level to blitz…and while that may work for awhile you gotta believe with the number of weapons PSU has that the Lions could find something to attack…this team is just WAY to balanced on offense..they aren’t a one-trick pony.
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on
Oct 17, 2008 9:04 AM EDT
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Agreed
I totally agree. I was just suggesting that, yes, Alabama’s lines are really good, but we shouldn’t sell PSU’s short because of a “soft schedule,” especially when that schedule isn’t in total much softer than Alabama’s.
And living in Tuscaloosa give me no special insight into anything other than the Saban mania that exists here — plus, I like to mention that I can watch Bama’s practices from my living room.
by tuscaloosalion on
Oct 17, 2008 9:48 AM EDT
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Well watching practice..
has to count for something…your opinion should carry a little more weight than someone who has watched 1 game…
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on
Oct 17, 2008 10:11 AM EDT
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Watching practice
If Penn State plays Alabama in the NC game you should invite Joe over for dinner while Alabama is practicing.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Oct 17, 2008 11:34 AM EDT
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Better Yet
Better yet, if Alabama has a shot of running the table and keeping Penn State out of the title game … I could just see of Tommy Tuberville wants to sub-let.
Of course, that’s getting ahead of things a bit.
by tuscaloosalion on
Oct 17, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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Wrong again...
The reason that the teams that we’ve played have worse records than the teams that have played Texas and Alabama is that the teams that we have played have had harder schedules than have the teams that have played Texas and Alabama.
Don’t believe me?
Read ’em and weep:
TEXAS
Opps Opps’ Opponents
1-5 6-0 1-6 6-1 6-1 2-4 3-2
3-3 2-4 6-0 3-2 2-4 2-4 2-4
3-3 1-6 3-4 5-1 6-0 0-6 6-0
3-3 4-2 1-5 6-0 6-0 5-1 3-3
3-3 3-3 2-4 2-4 4-1 6-0 5-1
5-1 1-6 1-5 0-5 6-1 3-3 6-0
Opponents’ win-loss
18-18
Opponents’ Opponents’ win-loss
17-21 14-24 22-13 30-7 18-18 25-10 = 126-93 win% 57.5
=================
ALABAMA
Opps Opps’ Opponents
3-3 6-0 3-3 2-4 5-2 4-2 4-1
2-4 6-0 3-3 1-5 1-6 2-4 3-3
2-5 2-4 4-3 6-0 3-4 4-2 5-1 7-0
3-3 4-2 1-5 6-0 6-0 5-1 3-3
5-1 3-3 4-2 5-2 4-2 6-0 2-4
4-2 3-2 2-4 2-4 2-5 6-0 5-2
Opponents’ win-loss
19-18
Opponents’ Opponents’ win-loss
24-11 17-20 22-15 21-19 27-9 22-14 7-0 = 140-88 win% 61.4
=================
PENN STATE
Opps Opps’ Opponents
3-4 7-0 4-2 4-3 3-4 2-5 6-0 3-3
3-3 4-3 7-0 3-3 4-1 7-0 1-6
1-5 5-1 3-3 7-0 2-4 4-1 4-2
2-5 2-4 5-1 2-4 7-0 6-1 1-5 4-2
3-3 5-1 2-4 3-3 7-0 2-4 6-1
2-4 1-4 5-2 4-2 4-2 7-0 6-1
3-3 3-4 3-3 4-2 2-4 6-1 7-0
Opponents’ win-loss
17-27
Opponents’ Opponents’ win-loss
27-17 29-15 27-17 29-15 34-12 31-15 7-5 = 184-96 win% 65.7
by PSUSEYOURHEAD on
Oct 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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We all know that the pre-season rankings were bunk. They’ve shown themselves to be thus far, and the only way that one could argue otherwise is if things swing all of the way around and somehow return the pre-season darlings to the top before the end of the season.
Keeping in mind the fact that the Big Ten teams have pretty much played one game more than all of their Big 12 and SEC counterparts, you Big 12 and SEC fans might want to take a look at the following and then ask yourself what seems to be out of place.
-BIG 12-
Oklahoma State #8 2-0 6-0
Texas #1 2-0 6-0
Texas Tech #7 2-0 6-0
Oklahoma #4 1-1 5-1 // Lost to 6-0 Texas
Kansas #16 2-0 5-1 // Lost to 5-1 South Florida
Missouri #11 1-1 5-1 // Lost to 6-0 Oklahoma State
-SEC-
Alabama #2 3-0 6-0
Florida #5 3-1 5-1 // Lost to 3-3 Mississippi
Vanderbilt #22 3-1 5-1 // Lost to 2-4 Mississippi State
Georgia #10 2-1 5-1 // Lost to 6-0 Alabama
LSU #13 2-1 4-1 // Lost to 5-1 Florida
-BIG TEN-
Penn State #3 3-0 7-0
Ohio State #12 3-0 6-1 // Lost to 4-1 USC
Michigan State #20 3-0 6-1 // Lost to 4-1 Cal
Minnesota 2-1 6-1 // Lost to 6-1 Ohio State
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 // Lost to 5-1 Michigan State
No rankings for Minnesota and Northwestern?
Can you imagine a 6-1 or 5-1 Big 12 or SEC team that had lost only one game to a 6-1 or 5-1 team being unranked?
Of course you can’t…
It all started with people’s perceptions of the teams based upon pre-season rankings. Had the Big Ten started their seasons a week later, the Big 12 and SEC teams would have been keeping pace with the number of losses dealt to them, and as a result, would have been playing even lower-ranked conference opponents, which would have made each victory just a little less impressive.
Just as you guys can’t take any of your conference games as a gimme, I won’t take any of PSU’s upcoming games for granted. If, however, PSU runs the Big Ten gauntlet and emerges unbeaten, we will be taking home the NC trophy.
Bank on it.
by PSUSEYOURHEAD on
Oct 18, 2008 1:51 PM EDT
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I'll
put our half -a-million dollar a year coach against their forty-million dollar coach anytime.
Give JoePa 4+ weeks to prepare for a bowl game, and well, you know what reults usually take place.
It’s kinda like 1986, when everyone said (the Media) we didn’t “deserve” to be on the same field as Miami. We all know how that worked out for the ’canes!!!!
1 game at a time. Take care of business wekk in and week out.
WE ARE……
by SHKNBKE60 on Oct 16, 2008 7:50 PM EDT 0 recs
Actually Mike
My coworker sent me the link that I set the fanpost up with. He’s also a USC fan who believes USC would destroy Penn State. I had to remind him that Illinois was overrated last year, Ohio State was overrated this year, and that Penn State is probably the most balanced team out there.
Glad to give BSD some material to talk about.
by cmdpsu15 on Oct 16, 2008 9:52 PM EDT 0 recs
Why in the hell are we worrying about teams we aren't scheduled to play yet?!?!
This is where seasons get ruined. Worry about the assholes from Ann Arbor, and then go from there.
by Ab4PSU on Oct 16, 2008 9:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Amen.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
by jesse. on
Oct 17, 2008 9:18 AM EDT
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