Michigan Preview: Revenge Is Best Served Now
Photo courtesy of RA, from DefinitelyRA's Flickr photostream.
Who Shot Who In The What Now? Michigan (2-4, 1-1) at Penn State (7-0, 3-0). Kickoff at 4:30 p.m. Eastern at THANK YOU, CORPORATE SPONSORS Stadium.
Kicking Television: ESPN matinee, baby. Your announcers are Professional Announcer Sean McDonough, the grating Chris Spielman, and Rob Stone. If you're aimlessly driving around the mid-Atlantic, here are your radio affiliates.
A Fool And His Money: Penn State is a 24.5 point favorite. Against Michigan. The over/under is 47.5.
Legendary Statistical Achievements: MGoBlog ran a fun piece about Chris Stassen earlier this week. Stassen's a Godfather-figure when it comes to college football and The Internets. Remember newsgroups? If you're a nerd and over the age of 35, you just said "yeah!". If not, exactly. Stassen's database is an essential for practically any college football research, and those of us who wasted way too much time in the mid-1990's arguing about football on a slow dial-up connection are just happy to know he doesn't have some sort of terminal carpal tunnel injury by now. Even if he's a Buckeye.
Anyway, Stassen's Michigan analysis:
By Sagarin-predictor pointspreads, Michigan is an underdog of more than a touchdown in every remaining game:
+8 at Purdue,
+9 against Northwestern,
+15 against Michigan State,
+16 at Minnesota,
+21 at Ohio State, and
+34 at Penn State
Using these numbers, the composite odds for Michigan's final six games of the regular season are:
6 wins = 0.0% (8-4)
5 wins = 0.0% (7-5)
4 wins = 0.4% (6-6)
3 wins = 3.9% (5-7)
2 wins = 18.7% (4-8)
1 wins = 41.8% (3-9)
0 wins = 35.2% (2-10)
By that calculation, Michigan is more than 75% likely to finish either 3-9 (one win in their remaining games) or 2-10 (no wins), with 3-9 being a bit more likely than 2-10.
They're a 22-to-1 longshot to exceed 4-8, and about a 250-to-1 longshot to be marginally bowl eligible at 6-6.
Weather: Let's just say you'll be tired of the phrase "football weather" by gametime. Low 50's, dipping into the high 40's by the end of the night, and clear.
Ouch, Babe: The usual suspects are hurt, along with Brent Carter (ACL tear). Brett Brackett is listed as "possible" with a concussion.
You Know What The Recruiting Process Needs? More Stalking. Impossible to condone, impossible to stop. Those were my two thoughts after reading this Washington Post article with a heavy Penn State lede about an overzealous Penn State student:
And when it comes to football recruiting, Meyer believes Penn State is everything any top high school prospect could want, too. That's why Meyer reaches out to some of those recruits via online social networks such as Facebook and MySpace. Maybe, he reasons, if a recruit sees that students from a certain school who aren't associated with the athletic department take the time to initiate a relationship, it might influence that recruit's decision on where to attend.
"When you follow recruiting, you wish you were the coaches going into the houses and telling kids about the tradition," Meyer said. If coaches can't recruit through social networks, he added, "students can do it."
It's not all evil for Penn State. Page three of the article references the PSU administration stepping in and shutting down a Facebook group to avoid any taint from the Terrelle Pryor frenzy last winter. Good read.
What An Iowa Fan Would Be Without All The Dick Jokes: Mark Hasty's Pickin' On The Big Ten senses a theme.
They're 6 and 1. They've lost to the only good team they've played. Their signature win thus far is over a team that, in retrospect, may not really be that good. They're solid on one side of the ball but they have issues on the other. Quick, which 6-1 Big Ten team am I talking about?
Answer? All of them.
And if you need help picking a college major, he can help with that as well.
Lest We Forget: I sincerely hate it when fans preach to other fans, "don't look ahead, we have to take it one game at a time." No, we don't. Not our problem. We can look ahead to 2010 if we want. Still, this painful reminder of the importance of "one game at a time."
2005: Michigan-27 Penn State-25 (via WolverineHistorian)
Of course, 2008 Michigan isn't quite 2005 Michigan. But still.
In Scores From Other Games: At the risk of overloading you with embedded video, here's the CBS preview.
Smoke Signals From Enemy Territory: Maize 'N Brew, bless his heart, still believes.
Now do I think Michigan's going to repeat it's 2005 performance? Probably not. There are too many things that have gone wrong this year. And frankly, the coaching hasn't been that good. But Michigan's shown the ability to string together quarters of competency before. And if this just happens to be the game they do it for four of them, well, then you never know.
...
Bad or not, never take a talented team lightly. Michigan may be bad right now, but I'd have to believe the Kool-Aid is spiked with some kind of hallucinogen if anyone's going to claim this team doesn't have talent.
Of course, given the past nine meetings between these teams, why shouldn't he believe?
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30 comments
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Comments
i hope they do close ups of a lot of sad, frustrated, and angry michigan fans…
by hawaiipennstatefan on Oct 16, 2008 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whoa
That box with the predicted odds and spreads of their remaining schedule is mind blowing. I most sincerely hope we never have to dip down again and have to feel that kind of pain midway through the season. (for the record: I would love to see tOSU do it in the future, though!)
If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.
by TheMightyErik on Oct 16, 2008 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I got a feeling they'll be more insulted losing to us than they were
losing to Appalachian State, Utah, or Toledo. Jesse was right: After we win, we should just act like it’s no big deal, like we just be Purdue. Don’t give them the satisfaction of having us act like they are important: They’re not. They’re program is almost as overhyped and overrated as Notre Dame’s.
by Ab4PSU on Oct 17, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That td catch
ranks behind only game 6 of this years stanley cup finals and the ‘99 Minnesota game in the worst sports moments of my life. It was so bad it knocked Francisco Cabrera’s 92 NLCS hit out of the top 3.
by PSU4ever31 on Oct 17, 2008 1:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just slightly behind Scott Norwood and the Music City Miraculously Illegal Forward Lateral (bitter!), just ahead of Game 6 last year, and the 6-4 Iowa game for me. Blargh.
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Oct 17, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ohhhh, not for me
I remember weeping uncontrollably in my living room after the Francisco Cabrera single and resulting Barry Bonds water balloon toss toward the general direction of home plate. You’d have to put that damn TD catch right up there somewhere though….
by jimbo2psu on Oct 17, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was at PSU at the time
and the worst part was the cheering coming from all over East Halls. I couldn’t believe how all of a sudden the Braves had so many bandwagon fans.
Years later it occurred to me. They were all from Philly.
by PSU Mudder on Oct 17, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daaammmn.
Even in PSU’s darkest, darkest hours, I don’t think we were ever facing 21 and 34 point spreads. I mean, the one year we didn’t let anyone score over 21 points…. even though we still ended up with like 3 wins.
Rough days in Ann Arbor. Indeed.
by Tailgate Shogun on Oct 17, 2008 6:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love the taste of my sour grapes
But after watching that video, I found yet ANOTHER thing that pisses me off about that game. On Breaston’s last return, look at the obvious block in the back on #89 of UM (6:42 mark). Don’t get me wrong, it was terrible strategy to kick to the guy, but still…a flag has to be thrown there. I’ll consider this the 4th biggest thing about this game that pisses me off, right behind…
3) Mike Hart’s fumble that never got reviewed.
2) The catch that was out of bounds that never got reviewed.
1) The Magnificent One whining and getting 2 more seconds.
Man, what a terrible way to start my Friday!!
"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."
-Tony Hunt
by Cpiritual27 on Oct 17, 2008 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FINALLY SOMEONE BRINGS UP THE HART FUMBLE
I was at the game so I never saw an instant replay/review of this, but didn’t Hart fumble on a scoring drive in the 4th quarter around midfield? And didn’t we recover? I remember immediately after the game thinking that THAT was what pissed me off the most, more than :02 and the catch.
by The IC Lion on Oct 17, 2008 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I don’t remember exactly when in the game that it happened, but it’s just amazing to me that it slipped through the cracks, and seemingly no one remembers it. Like I stated above, it’s right there with Avant’s “catch” as far as I’m concerned. I was watching that game on TV, and just sat there screaming for like 30 seconds straight. Ridiculous.
"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."
-Tony Hunt
by Cpiritual27 on Oct 17, 2008 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've settled down a bit over Avant's catch
since it was a catch by rule (he gained posession in the air, and then he came down and his toe touched in bounds just a microsecond before his heel went out of bounds, which would result in a catch, a microsecond “run after catch” and then going out of bounds.
What I am still pissed off about that play, though, is that they didn’t even bother to review it (though perhaps the review guy got a good enough look on the first time or 2 he saw it and didn’t need to stop play…the way review works in the Big 10 is that EVERY play is reviewed upstairs, and the questionable ones get called down to the field for play stoppage to give further review).
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 17, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
YES!
Thankfully I’m not the only one that remembers that garbage. I always cringed afterwards whenever some announcer would mention that Hart was known for holding onto the ball.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
by 06Lion on Oct 17, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
Do we happen to know the birthplace/undergraduate institutions of the refs this year, in particular the replay official?
"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."
-Tony Hunt
by Cpiritual27 on Oct 17, 2008 8:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't matter
Our closest game has been 14 points and we such as hell better not let Michigan stay that close!
JoePa in '09
by JGuiher on Oct 17, 2008 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Idea
A firend of mine had a great idea – the student section should show up in the second quarter, a’la Buffalo, Coastal Carolina, etc.
by Spats on Oct 17, 2008 8:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
HILARIOUS.
That’s comedy gold!
by Tailgate Shogun on Oct 17, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It could happen
Aafter 6+ hours of tailgating, it may take them until the 2nd quarter to even find the stadium.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on Oct 18, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Has anyone heard anything more...
about the Student section learning “hail to the victors” to sing after the game?
Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno
by carolinaeasy on Oct 17, 2008 8:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the first I heard of it
…but I kinda like the concept.
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Oct 17, 2008 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt it's "hail to the victors"
When someone said that in a post earlier this week, I thought they meant learning the alternate words to the song.
by The IC Lion on Oct 17, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blue band
should play that in the 4th if we are up big
by SweepTheLeg on Oct 17, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Generally speaking I’m against book burnings.
But if there is a way to burn youtube videos and digital photos of that last play, I can see myself turning a blind eye.
That was a long drive home, and it didn’t help that I was sitting next to the worst Michigan fan in the stadium.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
by Kevin HD on Oct 17, 2008 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
THE GOAL
Since JoePa started coaching football (1950), the worst loss that Michigan has suffered was a 37 point loss at Purdue in 1962.
The worst loss in Michigan history? A 44-0 drubbing by the Cornell Big Red in 1892
by Cairo on Oct 17, 2008 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ooooohh.....
me likey.
Nice find. I will soooo be rooting for a 52-7 victory!!! I will plead to whatever god will listen for additional points late in the game!
You hear that various gods? You need a new convert, you just deliver a couple pick-6’s in the 4th quarter for me, and I’ll sign on the dotted line for your religion.
by Tailgate Shogun on Oct 17, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope....
that there is two seconds left and D.C. throws a hail mary for a touchdown to make the final score 72-0. Usually i’m against this kinda thing…but not this week baby.
by blt on Oct 17, 2008 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PSU-Michigan
I’ve been through as much as the rest of you in this series ups and downs. From being stuffed on the goal line in ‘93 to the Snow Bowl of ’95 to Ahmad Collins blocked punt to pretty much seal our “Last Win” against scUM. Oh not to mention 2005 which I’d rather not mention. And the thought of letting a true freshman beat us in last year surely we all hold a BAD taste in our mouth. I just hope our team is focused and ready for this game so we can move toward their “ultimate” goal and not just to break a streakl against scUM.
by lionsbluewhite on Oct 17, 2008 11:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't scheme to hide your true emotions - let them out
As a Michigan fan, you guys can celebrate anyway you want if you win. (short of violence, of course.) The casual talk doesn’t have anyone fooled. The youtube videos of Penn State fans going nuts after Michigan lost to Appalachian State say it all. Would Michigan fans have been going nuts if Penn State had lost to Appalachian State? No. A nine game losing streak to a team can create an obsession in a fan base. It would not be an unreasonable thing for goalposts to fall.
Frankly, if Michigan can just have a turnover free game and 15+ first downs, I will be satisfied that progress is being made.
by Oak Park Dave on Oct 18, 2008 3:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeez, Dave
You reasonable UM folks are OK.
The App State game? It was like watching a horrible wreck that we couldn’t turn away from. We went crazy ‘cause we figured if THEY beat you, we DEFINITELY would. How’d THAT work out for us?
The Toledo game didn’t get the same reaction because we’ve been there too.
You guys still own us. At least til the final whistle today.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on Oct 18, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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