Important Things To Remember About These, The Latest BCS Standings

by Kevin HD on Oct 26, 2008 9:54 PM EDT in Football Comment 49 comments

It's no surprise to see Penn State, even after such a big win, remain a distant #3 in the BCS Standings. The win did, however, fix the "Oregon State Bug" that had Penn State ranked #7 in the computers behind Ohio State (#5), who was somehow ahead of USC (#10). This week Penn State moves up to #3 in the computers, USC is at #6.

Penn State is #3 in both human polls as well as all but one computer ranking. Richard Billingsley is the exception, putting PSU at #2, however because the highest and lowest ranking are thrown out in the average, the computers align perfectly with both human polls in spots 1-3.

There is an awful lot of noise about the merit of Penn State's MNC hopes; Rivals and the LA Times released stories in less than 24 hours. It probably would have been sooner except that they had to do a search/replace, taking out OSU and putting in PSU, in what were probably stories written right after the week three OSU@USC game.

Guess what? It doesn't matter.

Penn State sits at #3 in the BCS standings and if they win out, there is no way a one loss team will jump them. Not. Gonna. Happen. A Texas or Bama loss puts an undefeated Nittany Lion team in the championship game. Period. No amount of whining from journalists with failed logic is going to stop it. This is a great Penn State team and I'm very excited about the things they will be given a chance to do.

Update: While I still maintain that the above linked arguments are a futile effort, Graham at The Rivalry, Esq. writes a nice rebuttal worthy of a read.

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Penn State’s not exactly a “distant” third. They’re about a quarter-point (0.242) behind Alabama. That’s actually narrower than the distance between 2nd and 3rd (which is 0.400).

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Penn State leap Alabama in the statistical rankings, as the margin in most cases is easily small enough that depending on how Penn State’s future (and past) opponents do, they could easily slip ahead.

And because of the quirk of the BCS that uses the order ranking rather than a weighted value, Penn State slipping ahead narrowly in the statistical rankings would actually put Penn State at 0.939, and Alabama at 0.936. Poll inertia is not a death knell to Penn State – both Alabama and Penn State could win out, and Penn State could still pull ahead.

Also, I would once again like to remind people that Billingsley is insane. The fact that Penn State is ranked highly by Billingsley does not make his ranking system “not insane.”

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 26, 2008 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2 things

1) I do find it interesting that they use the rank value for the computer polls, but the “weighted” value for the human polls. Perhaps because the computer polls get averaged, and if their values are on different scales and distributions it might diminish the values of some polls? I figure some statistician could figure it out pretty easy, though.

2) Billingsley’s system is slightly less insane though. His “insane/not insane” ratio is directly correlated with how high he has Penn State ranked. Unfortunately the ratio can never go past 0.1 since, well, his system is clearly insane. ;-)

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The gap is as close as it'll get...

There is simply no way Penn State can finish ahead of Alabama should the Tide stay unbeaten. The human voters simply would not allow it.

It seems pretty simple…if Penn State wins out, and there is only one unbeaten team, they’re off to Miami. If all things remain the same, and it never ever does, and won’t this year, Penn State heads to the Rose Bowl, so undefeated Texas and Alabama can battle for the title.

The only scenario which doesn’t spell out a clear NC game is if Texas TECH, Alabama, and Penn State all remain undefeated.
It doesn’t seem a very likely scenario, but it exists.

My initial reaction is that Texas Tech would be left out, but even that is hard to say with certainty given the national respect for the Big 12 (where defense is optional), and the TTU would earn over the next two months by going undefeated through it.

by NittanyBadger on Oct 26, 2008 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The human voters simply would not allow it.

The human voters don’t need to allow it. If the human polls stay where they are (and they would, assuming that Penn State wins big and Alabama’s opponents start looking weak), the statistical polls make the difference. If they all put Penn State second (and, again, given the degeneracy in the statistics, it’s entirely possible), Penn State moves ahead of Alabama.

You’re simply wrong that there’s no way that Penn State can’t move ahead of Alabama without Alabama losing. It’s just math, and it’s not that hard. Look at the polls – Penn State’s already very close to Alabama.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 26, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

manipulation

I’d put money on someone, perhaps a voting member of the Harris Poll, figuring that out in late November and starting a petition to rank Alabama #1, Texas #2 and thus manipulate the BCS formula into outputting the desired title game matchup.

by gumbercules on Oct 27, 2008 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only way that Penn State ends up that close to Alabama in the polls is if plenty of people already think of Penn State as better than Alabama (or even Texas).

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 27, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On Texas Tech...

I have to say, I love my Nittany Lions as much as every other die hard fan, but if Texas Tech runs the table and beats (1)Texas, (9)Oklahoma State, and (4)Oklahoma in the next 3 week stretch and wins the Big 12 Championship game and STILL gets left out of the NC game. I couldn’t be mad at them for wanting someones head on a platter. That would be ridiculous. Whether we go undefeated or not, that’s just wouldn’t be right in my opinion.

"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees

by kajpsu on Oct 27, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course that's if Bama and PSU are the other 2 undefeated teams.

"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees

by kajpsu on Oct 27, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They wouldn’t be. They’d be ranked #1 in the statistical rankings with a vengeance, and it’s unlikely that they wouldn’t be competing for #1 in the human polls, or at least #2 – either would guarantee them a spot. The only way a #1 team in the statistical polls could be left out would be for them to be ranked #3 and #1/#2 be roughly tied in the human polls (and tied for #2/#3 in the statistical rankings).

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 27, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else gonna be a Tx Tech supporter this week?

by deihlba on Oct 26, 2008 11:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's a mistake to equate OSU to PSU in Bowl games

Just look at Penn State’s bowl record under Paterno. Give Joe 3 weeks to prepare for an opponent and he can beat anyone. Just ask Jimmy Johnson. Jimmy still hasn’t figured out how Miami lost to PSU in 86’.

by ageing lion on Oct 26, 2008 11:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is nice to see:

http://www.rivalryesq.com/2008/10/26/647114/rivals-com-skewers-penn-st#comments

Over at the Rivalry, Esq. they responded to the Rivals article and posted it up. What respect. I’m glad it’s not just us who feels insulted.

by GreatScawt on Oct 26, 2008 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dude, that was awesome

Nice to see someone else taking up for us. That Dienhart guy really did piss me off.

If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.

by TheMightyErik on Oct 27, 2008 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I congratulate PSU on a very good game. They deserved the win. Joe with his 80 something years has it figured out better than Jim Tressel does.

Focus on winning out Lions, or none of your “poll arguments” will matter.

I would love to see a PSU/Bama matchup, and I will be one HUGE Buckeye fan pulling for the Lions. It’s time we Big Ten(11) fans stuck together, aka, SEC fans.

by buckeyedude1 on Oct 27, 2008 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the compliment

Now that we got past this weekend, I’ll be rooting for the Bucks from here on out (after my Lions of course).

Best of luck the rest of the way.

"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees

by kajpsu on Oct 27, 2008 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you for your support from here on out. Hopefully we'll bring it all home and give a bounce

to the conference. Best of luck the remainder of the season.

Trounce Michigan.

by Ab4PSU on Oct 27, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, Lions fans, now you know how we Buckeye fans feel as far as the disrespect goes. Hopefully yous guys can do more than we did in the last few big games.

by buckeyedude1 on Oct 27, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really mean no disrespect in this

especially since any team could win or lose any game, by pretty much any score, and I do believe OSU was a really good/great team last year and especially in 2006, and may have just had coincidental bad games against Florida and LSU having good games. I also think that the Big 10’s large layoff between the regular season and BCS games doesn’t help much. But if we get left out of the MNC picture because we’re in the “Big 10, and the Big 10 doesn’t deserve to be in the game because they got blown out of the last 2 MNC games”…well it isn’t quite the same thing as the disrespect OSU gets, since technically OSU “earned” that disrespect, while this year’s Penn State team has done nothing but beat other teams (on an admittedly weak schedule).

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Buckeyes have no idea what disrespect is

See the 5 years we got ripped off as an undefeated team. A co-worker just asked if I’d rather be left out, go to the Rosebowl and win or go to the MNC game. I said, I already lived the 1st scenario – see 1994. I’d rather go to the MNC and prove it on the field than leave it for some idiot sportswriters to decide it for us.

by PSU Jen on Oct 27, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

let me add

go to the MNC game and lose….

by PSU Jen on Oct 27, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's my sentiment as well

though I would rather not go to the MNC game if we get blown out. A loss I could handle, a blowout loss would just guarantee no big 10 team is considered for the MNC game for quite some time

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not me.

I’m so pissed off and bitter about the slights of ‘68-’69-‘73-’94 that no matter what, I’d rather play on the field and lose (cleanly, not having the refs add time to the clock or anything like that) than be shafted again. If you lose, then you know the other team was better, or that you gave the game away (in which case you have no one but yourself to blame). Let us decide our own destiny. I can live with a blowout loss on the field in the championship game rather than being undefeated at the end and winning the Rose Bowl.

by Ab4PSU on Oct 27, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my consolation with the Rose Bowl

if we get sleighted again, is I feel that would have to at least push us closer towards a playoff system.

Also, a loss would give Bowden one more chance at catching back up to/passing JoePa, if the ’Noles win out.

Those 2 things puts that Rose Bowl win scenario over a blowout loss in the MNC (though we might actually have a harder time in the Rose Bowl against USC, who I think is just as tough if not tougher than Texas, and Alabama)…so maybe I don’t want the Rose Bowl afterall, though I think I’d prefer a Rose Bowl Win than a MNC blowout loss :-p

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Championship Game

Would be nice to have the Joseph Paterno National Championship game every year.

by Dutchman1350 on Oct 27, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Penn State

rarely gets blown out. It just doesn’t happen that often, even when we’re bad and the opponent is good, and Joe has a penchant for getting the team up in big games. Yes, OSU had their way with us last year, Notre Dame sorta did in ‘06, Michigan State sorta did in ’03, OSU in 2001, etc. There were semi-blowouts in the dark years, but those weren’t MNC games, let alone bowl games. When’s the last time we got “blown out” in a bowl game? Clemson beat us 35-10 in 1987. Thats pretty much it since Joe has been head coach. No way would Texas/Bama/USC/Florida/Texas Tech(rofl)/Oklahoma/Georgia blow out this Penn State team in a national championship game. I’d like our chances against any one of them. USC is the only one of those teams that does anything more on defense than just throw out 11 guys because they have to by rule.

by blogue20 on Oct 30, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was never implying that we would get blown out

or that it was more than a remote possibility. I’m just saying that, if after the MNC game, if we did get blown out, and I had a “rewind” button, but that if I pushed it we wouldn’t go to the MNC, and instead would have played in the Rose Bowl, but would be guaranteed a win…well I think I would be leaning towards that button. As it stands now, I’d take an “any team, any time” attitude with the team we have this year.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

I’d rather us get our shot at a national title anyday regardless of outcome over a Rose Bowl victory over Oregon State

by blogue20 on Oct 30, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

forgive me but what does the M in "MNC" stand for?

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Oct 27, 2008 12:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mythical. It’s from a quote from Bo Schembechler.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 27, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "Oregon State" bug

Oh, and Kevin:

The “Oregon State” bug, where Ohio State was ahead of USC, makes perfect sense. Ohio State and USC both lost once. The team that USC lost to was worse than the team that Ohio State lost to. Therefore, all else being equal, Ohio State would be the better team.

The fact that Ohio State lost to USC is somewhat immaterial. You’re ranking the seasons against each other, not the teams against each other – and Ohio State, up until last week, had a better season than USC did.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 27, 2008 4:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You’re ranking the seasons against each other

At this point I’m sure you’ve seen the resume ranking method used by many bloggers, in which losses are ignored and two teams’ sets of wins are compared against each other. In that method, Ohio State does not have a win on its schedule anywhere near the value of USC’s blowout win over OSU, and many bloggers were inclined to rank USC higher the past few weeks. Intuitively, it feels like a glass half-full/half-empty argument — if you look at the wins, USC is having a better year; if you look at the losses, OSU is having a better year. Is there any appropriate way to value each side of the coin?

by gumbercules on Oct 27, 2008 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

um...

look at the wins and losses?

just sayin’

Also, as far as “resume ranking” goes, I don’t think there is a direct way people do it, and I wouldn’t say that “just looking at the wins” is what most of them do. I think that the resume rankers do look at both sides, and try to evaluate the season as it has unfolded. The way this differs from a lot of the ways people do their rankings is that typically (especially early season) people try to “guess” which teams are better than other teams based on the talent on the field, who is coaching, “tradition”, whether or not they are in the SEC, etc. As the season progresses, and there is actual game data to look at, most voters seem to go towards the resume way, but there’s always the people who just have biases towards/against certain teams/conferences

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While it may not be representative of the population as a whole, this kind of thinking is what I was referring to, and Matt Hinton’s opinions do carry some weight in these circles. You’re right, losses are never ignored (unfortunate word choice above), but in my mind the question remains as to how to decide which games contain the most information about a team.

by gumbercules on Oct 27, 2008 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The bug

I still think the computers were incapable of handling that situation. I understand the logic of OSU>USC, but a one loss OSU should not have been ahead of PSU, who had similar wins and no losses at all.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Oct 27, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Texas Tech runs it, they're in over us, period

Let’s be serious, an undefeated Tech team, having played what will be the hardest schedule in the nation will finish the season #1. I suspect in fact, that they’ll move to #1 if they win this week. That said, I expect them to drop one of their games vs. the Oklahomas, meaning that for me, they are still clearly the team to root for this week vs. UT.

by boston_zenos on Oct 27, 2008 7:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas Tech

You may be right about Tech finishing over us if they run the table, but I don’t think they will win out. I have them beating Texas, but they will lose against Oklahoma St. or Oklahoma.

by PABroncofan on Oct 27, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Even if they do win out

it is moot. They will be #1, and the 2nd spot will be a battle between PSU and Bama

by simon psu on Oct 27, 2008 9:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It might just be me

I have the feeling if TT beats UT, but loses to OU (leaving three one loss Big 12 schools that cannibalized each other) one of them would end up jumping us somehow. It’s not exactly a good hunch, but I can’t shake the feeling that it’d happen.

John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Oct 27, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Two other factors in this that people have failed to mention:

First, JoePa, due to age, health, and contract status, may get a little “Tom Osbourne” love if the writers feel this could be his last year. Remember how Osbourne announced his retirement in the middle of the season and the one poll immediately shot the Cornfuckers to # 1. Also, look how quickly we shot from 12 to 3. Those were two huge weekends. Just as with beating Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State (in Columbus), it looks like this could be the year for Joe to settle ALL scores before he walks away.

Secondly, let’s be real here. Money drives this thing. Period. End of story. No argument. Who in the hell do you think the networks want in the Orange Bowl if there’s a three way tie with undefeated teams, and one of those three includes Texas Tech? Texas Tech does not have a national following, is not going to draw the fans to Miami the way we would, and would not bring in the television ratings the way we would, especially giving the networks time to amp up the Joe Paterno farewell act. There is entirely too much money to be made off us to let us sit at home. Granted, I don’t think we’ll jump an undefeated Texas or Alabama, but Texas Tech won’t get the nod over us if we win out. Just remember how many BCS bowls undeserving Notre Dame teams get because of money, drawing power at the game, and television ratings.

by Ab4PSU on Oct 27, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

big difference

the MNC game selection is based off of rankings, while the bowls have a little bit of leeway on who they invite. I think PSU would get some benefit in the human polls over an undefeated Texas Tech team, but I also think that any undefeated team coming out of the Big 12 or SEC probably should get a chance to play for the national championship, because they would definitely have more wins over impressive teams than Penn State this year. With that said, I still hate any system where a team can go undefeated, and not have at least a CHANCE at the MNC (yes, that even includes non-BCS conference teams).

As much as I want a playoff, or some other systems, I would settle for some NCAA rule that mandates that play continues until there are no more than 1 undefeated team (and preferrably until there were no more than 1 team with whatever the least number of losses is that year). Sure, you could argue that that would lead to an easier path for teams like Boise St. to capture a national championship, but if they are able to beat whatever other undefeated teams out there, then perhaps they do deserve it. Besides, it isn’t like Penn State this year could dismiss someone for having a weak strength of schedule or weak conference.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 27, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depending on how the game goes this weekend

texas tech could leap frog us in the human polls sooner rather than later (ala ut after their win over ou).

by PSUgirl on Oct 27, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think a one loss team could jump PSU in the BCS Rankings

but I think that its only Florida and no one else.

If Florida won out, they would have two huge wins, Georgia and Alabama. And a win over Florida State, who could be a one loss team at that point. That would give them a massive boost in the computer polls and the SEC Championship.

Florida plays at Georgia this weekend. Georgia is ahead of Florida in all the computer polls. A win will give Florida a huge jump in the computer polls. They could end up solidifying 4th in all the polls.

Then a Florida win over #2 Bama in the SEC Championship could split human voters and put Florida and Penn State close in those polls while the computers could favor Florida.

I think that is the only situation that would keep an undefeated Penn State out of the BCS NC. I do not think that Georgia winning out would have the same effect since they have already lost to Bama. And even this scenario is highly unlikely because the difference between Florida and Penn State would have to be the same as the difference between Bama and Penn State right now in the human polls.

So I think I will have to agree with Kevin. A Texas or Bama loss should put PSU into the BCS NC.

by DrDetroit on Oct 27, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs