Vegas Knows Best: Who You Are Rooting For This Week

by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2008 9:09 AM EDT in Big Ten Conference Comment 43 comments

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While I normally am not one for bye weeks, I have to say that for the first time since I can remember I'm rather looking forward to this one. Maybe it was the high strung nature of Saturday's game, or maybe I just like knowing that nothing bad can happen. This doesn't mean, however, that we can't get worked up about something this weekend.

Now that Penn State's #3 ranking has been solidified, we need to figure out how to remedy the problem of not being in the top two. So in this week's episode we'll look at what conference teams we want to win, and the chances of them doing it. Playing ranked teams down the road will help Penn State's perception in the human polls, and make sure to check out In Defense Of Statistics (One and Two), written by the excellent reader Bleed Blue 'n White, for an understanding of how this might help the team's status in the computers.

Within the conference, there are three general goals:

Keep the eight teams we play in the big ten winning, aka root against Minnesota and Northwestern.
Keep the "good" teams good, aka don't root for the teams that have already proven themselves poor.
Root especially hard for the two quality teams left on the schedule, Iowa and Michigan State.

After the jump we'll look at the match-ups, then point out in the 'Verdict' the colors we would be wearing to that game:

Central Michigan at Indiana
Line: Indiana -2.5

This one is an easy pick, even if it might not be an easy win. Indiana was looking rather terrible, with five straight losses, before somehow knocking off a ranked Northwestern. Central Michigan, on the other hand, is actually pretty good. If these are two BCS teams I have to think it's a pick.

Verdict: Cream and Crimson
Chances Of Success: Average at best.

Wisconsin at (21) Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -4.5

I'm still not really sure what happened to Wisconsin. I knew they probably weren't as good as advertised over the summer, new QB, average defense, ect...but I didn't expect them to fall off the map quite like they did. They had a win over Illinois last week, but without knowing which Illinois team that was it's hard to tell if this was a good performance or simply a typical one. What's also unfortunate is that, after Ohio State stole all the glory with their last minute drive in Madison, the Penn State blowout was dismissed as a win against a team that had "mailed it in". These are the logic trains we are trying to conduct. I think the pick is pretty clear here, Michigan State needs to continue to win and Penn State would love it if they could come to Happy Valley in the Top 15.

Verdict: Green and White
Chances Of Success: Optimistically probable.

Northwestern at Minnesota(17)
Line: Minnesota -7

So there is this game on Saturday between the fourth and fifth place Big Ten teams...and those teams are Minnesota and Northwestern...weird. This is the one situation in which Rule One doesn't apply, so don't worry about that. They are both "good", although maybe not, and they are, of course, not Iowa or Michigan State. From here we have to look at the transient property. By this I mean we want the quality teams we beat to look good, and they look better if the teams they beat remain highly regarded. In this instance I think we have to root for Minnesota. Ohio State could use a win against a ranked team, even if it is the Gophers.

Verdict: Maroon and Gold
Chances Of Success: Good to quite good.

Michigan at Purdue
Line: Purdue -2

This game simply doesn't matter. I mean not in the slightest. Both of these teams were major disappointments, although for different reasons and accomplished different ways. Michigan has been simply inept. They weren't suppose suck quite so bad because they had a defense; well the defense turned out to be sub-par and the offense has been downright embarrassing (and a turnover machine to boot!). Purdue got to 2-6 the other way, but playing the defense we all knew they couldn't but then having a Heisman hopeful quarterback play like a rookie. I'd be lying if I said we should care about this game.

Verdict: Belligerence and Debauchery
Chances Of Success: Money in the bank.

Iowa at Illinois
Line: Illinois -2.5

Iowa won this game last year at home by shutting down Mendenhall and intercepting an Eddie McGee pass with about one minute left to seal the deal. This year's total is set at 50, quite a bit higher than last year's results and the second highest of the Big Ten games being played this week (only Central Michigan at Indiana is higher, set at 55.5). With Iowa now using Greene as the offensive driver, and Illinois ranked 9th in the Big Ten in rush defense (76th nationally), you can count on him getting the ball a couple of times. The tricky part is figuring out which Juice Williams is going to show up. Iowa has Penn State after this one, and while a win doesn't get the Hawkeyes ranked, it does lend to the idea that they are "surging" (whatever that means) and defenetally helps the computer SOS.

Verdict: Black and Old Gold

Chances Of Success: Possible to hopeful.

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Comments

How about Texas Tech vs. Texas?

For whom do I root in that game?

by PSU Mudder on Oct 30, 2008 9:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

UT-TTU

You root for the Air Force to conduct a Nuclear Device Test over Lubbock.

by shadowfax on Oct 30, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen West Texas?

It looks like it already has been blasted into wasteland.

by Cairo on Oct 30, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say root for Texas Tech

If someone is going to beat Texas, I think this is the only possible game left where it could happen. They’re just too good of a team, but I do believe Tech could hang 45-50 on them and MAYBE hold Texas to 42 points (which is tough to do with no defense).

On the other hand, while Tech has a good offense, I do not think they are a good TEAM. They still have to face Oklahoma State and OU, and they could very well lose 1 or both of those games.

So, I think it’d be best to root for Tech this weekend, and then against them for the rest of the season. But then again…what do I know? Well, I know I like beer, and that’s about all!

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 30, 2008 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

Texas Tech would probably fare worse in the Big 12 championship game. It just looks like overall TT has 3 more losable games, while Texas would only really have one more after this weekend.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you have to go TT

If for no other reason than being able to laugh at the fact that TT is the best team in the state.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MI @ Purdue

I have to disagree about being TOTALLY disinterested in the outcome of this game. Doesn’t a Purdue win guarantee MI is bowl ineligible? Not that I think MI has a chance at becoming bowl eligible anyway, but I’d rather see their hopes be dashed as soon as possible than allow there to be any hope of the fluke of winning out the rest of their games.

Go Boilermakers! (who from here on I believe I will just refer to as BMs)

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Oct 30, 2008 10:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

You are right, sorta. The problem for Michigan is that being bowl eligible doesn’t mean you go to a bowl. With the way everyone is loading up on cupcakes now, 6-6 doesn’t cut it, you need seven wins. Northwestern got left out last year at 6-6.

Although, Iowa did get in at 6-6 the year before that, so who knows. I doubt seriously that UM will be able to get past OSU on the road even if they win their next three, but if you are the kind of guy that doesn’t like to leave things to chance, then of course you don’t want them to win this game.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ll still flip through this one, its just that there is no way I’ll be able to trick myself into caring who wins.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its Michigan....

if they are bowl eligible….they are going to a bowl.

Just the same as Notre Dame.

by Stately NOVA Lion on Oct 30, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I care because I want to make sure Michigan has a losing record.

Right now, I believe, they have had 41 consecutive non-losing seasons. I want to make sure they don’t approach our record of 50 from 1938-1987. Some of you youngsters might not remember Notre Dame beating us in the final game of 1988 to give us our first losing record in 50 years. Given that the streak started pre-Rip Engle and continued through Joe Paterno, I think it is pretty impressive & would like to keep the record.

by Elihu on Oct 30, 2008 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember it CLEARLY

My dad was so disappointed over it and it killed me to keep hearing the ’casters mention it

If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.

by TheMightyErik on Oct 30, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

being michigan, they'd be bowl eligible at 6-6

plus, wouldn’t they have to go to the Motor City Bowl? You figure they’d LOVE to have Michigan there (they might even have some people actually attend!)

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well even the motor city bowl

is still a bowl and Wooferines could still cling to the fact that their bowl string was still intact. I’d just prefer to have them not have anything to cling to and I would like to see all hopes of having even that to cling to dashed as quickly (and as inhumanely) possible.

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Oct 30, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But don't you think scUM fans

would be too “proud” to go to the Motor City bowl to watch a terrible Michigan team?

Personally, I’d like to see scUM lose the rest of their games. I hate Michigan!

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 30, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be proud

requires having something to be proud of. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch!

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Oct 30, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention

a 2-win season will definitely kill their recruiting for next year.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 30, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind, though

NCAA rules force a bowl to select a 7-5 team before a 6-6 team, regardless of conference record.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't been keeping close track

but I thought the Big 10 was in danger of not filling their bowl requirements. Would a bowl be forced to pick a 7-5 team from another conference over a 6-6 team with a bowl tie in?

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bowl selection

Bowls are required to follow their conference tie-ins. A bowl must choose a 7-5 team in a conference over a 6-6 team were that to be the choice. But if only 6-6 teams are available to fill in a berth, those teams will fill the contracted spots. If no 6-6 teams are available, then that spot goes unfilled by a conference and becomes an at large spot.

If a bowl has an at large spot, it must fill the spot with a team with a winning record (i.e. 7-5 or better) over a team with a 6-6 record. A 6-6 team can only be chosen if there are no teams with winning records available.

Basic point being that Michigan at 6-6 is likely to take one of the Big Ten’s contracted bowl spots. So, let’s hope they lose at least one more game (which I don’t think is an issue).

by Laaaaazzz on Oct 30, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Big Ten

will fill all its slots. There are 6 bowls with Big Ten tie-ins. Lets say there are two Big Ten teams in BCS bowls (PSU & Ohio State or Minnesota) that would leave the 3-8 teams in the standings to fill the slots. As it is right now, Michigan, Purdue and Indiana are all likely missing bowls. Wisconsin is 4-4, as is Illinois. Both could easily get to 7-5. Along with them, Northwestern, Iowa and Michigan State are almost certainly making a bowl barring a huge slip up. If only Penn State gets to a BCS bowl then there may even be an eligible Big Ten team left out.

by blogue20 on Oct 30, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Minnesota in a BCS Bowl?

[in Corso voice] – No so fast, my friend.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 30, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know.

Richard Rodriguez could definitely pull in some spread-savvy recruits this year. All it takes is for one player who looks at reputation instead of record, and becomes a cheerleader for other recruits to bring back the program to prominence for Michigan to be successful in the offseason.

I think that person for us was Derrick Williams. Don’t forget that the critical 2005 class of Clark, Jerome Hayes, Justin King, Lydell Sargeant, Sean Lee, Anthony Scirrotto, and Derrick Williams (all 3-5 star recruits) came after two deplorable seasons of Penn State football. This is one of the many reasons why I will probably give Derrick Williams my personal “Penn State player of the Decade” award in 2009.

by Cairo on Oct 30, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Recruiting

I guess Penn State fans don’t follow recruiting.

Roughly 80% of recruiting is done. There will be some last minute changes and some kids haven’t committed, but teams already have most of their classes lined up. Well, good teams have their recruits lined up. Shit teams like Purdue and Indiana have basically no recruits line up.

Penn State has 18 kids who are verbals. I doubt any will drop. They will also probably add 7 more. Ohio State has 25 verbals and they will probably stay that way. Neither adding or losing any kids. USC is also loaded with 4 5 Star players among their 20some odd recruits.

Michigan has lost several verbals already this year, but they still have 16 kids comitted. Including two of the biggest dual threat QB prospects in the nation, Shavodrick Beaver and Tate Forcier. They lost two huge recruits, one to Penn State (Fera the kicker) and one who is now uncomitted (WR Bryce McNeal), but their overall class is very good. If Rich Rod can add a few more kids to get the total up to the 20s, Michigan has a really good chance of having a top 10 class.

by DrDetroit on Oct 30, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

didn't Kevin Newsome decommit as well?

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He did

Also lost a 5 star DT/OT, William Campbell, but expectations are that he will end up at Michigan in the end.

by Wlvrn99 on Oct 30, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he qualifies

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Oct 30, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ZING!!!!

Though technically Clark didn’t qualify at first, and look how that turned out.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 31, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you guys see the Clark GameDay sign?

It said our dude was ‘Hooked on Phonics’… while cold as it was, you had to kinda let them have that since even Fowler piled on him saying how many attempts he needed on the ACT. On the other hand, tOSU was once home to Katzemoyer…

If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.

by TheMightyErik on Oct 31, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was going to use "Hooked on Fonics" once

but as I looked through the catalog I couldn’t find anything with that name.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 31, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would have preferred

Hooked on Phoenix

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Nov 2, 2008 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just so y'all know

We are aware of the issues with the ads covering parts of the page. The tech guys have been alerted and I’m sure they are working on it.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Oct 30, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I haven't noFREE TRIALticed.

by Cairo on Oct 30, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whats up with Old Gold?

Ok, I understand what old gold is and despite what the great and powerful Wiki says, it is not one of Iowa’s colors. Old gold is Wake. Old gold is Purdue.

How about we root for Black and old pink ?

by The IC Lion on Oct 30, 2008 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you mean PSU's original colors?

I never know quite how to respond to that fact when people bring it up.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 30, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you google:

University of Iowa colors

It takes you to this site, which says their colors include ‘old gold’. Strangely, the wiki page leave out the ‘old’. I thought it was unusual so I included it.

Of course, like all shades of old gold, gold, maize, ect….it’s all just yellow now.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Oct 30, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, I now describe urine as "maize", not yellow.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 30, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a good one

On a hot, sweaty day of outdoor exercise, you stop to drop off a piss, and think ‘dag, that’s a really maizey piss! Go Corn!’

pax et amor

by jtothep on Oct 30, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when i was a kid

I spent a lot of time on the farm. Sometimes when the calves were getting a little too much of Momma’s milk they would leave samples of all of those various shades of “gold”.

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Oct 30, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also lovin the bye week

Jeesh, my fandom is exhausted. So, I’m with you Kevin on enjoying a week off. Nice post; I liked the clever Verdicts & Chances for Success.

pax et amor

by jtothep on Oct 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Woah

Thanks for the recommendation, Kevin!

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 30, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also: I completely and totally agree regarding Wisconsin. For the human polls, ending the season against a Top 25 team is just huge.

But in addition, Wisconsin, even with beating Michigan State, has no chance of becoming a Top 25 team again – the loss to Michigan is always going to be a ball-and-chain, for one.

Michigan State, despite the people who want to say “Same old Spartans,” hasn’t had an inexplicable loss yet. Ohio State’s a top 25 team, and Cal’s a borderline top 25 team that they lost a close game to. If Michigan State wins out until we meet them, they’re a clear Top 25 team.

If Oregon State does well and pulls themselves up into the top 25, we’ll have a pretty decent resume, with 3 Top 25 victories. If Iowa wins out except for a loss against us, that’s also similarly huge. That would probably put them borderline in the Top 25, which would be great.

Iowa vs. Illinois is pretty big, too. There’s simply no redeeming Illinois at this point, whereas Iowa could still end the season considered a decent team.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Oct 30, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs