Vegas Knows Best: Things Get Less Exciting
by KevinHD on Oct 9, 2008 3:00 PM EDT
in B1G / BigTen
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PrintInitial Reaction: I've only watched one Toledo game (Fresno), and based on the way Michigan is playing I wouldn't have expected this to be more than 14.
Further Review: That Toledo game I did watch, a two OT loss to Fresno State, left me somewhat impressed with this particular member of the Ohio minor leagues (sometimes abbreviate as "MAC"). They were moving the ball well and actually looked like the better team most of the game. Since then, though, they've lost two more games, including one to airport-extraordinaire Florida International. Fresno State also proved a pretender. Michigan appears to be headed downward as well. The Wisconsin game was a good win, but it appeared to be more circumstantial. They were utterly owned by Illinois, failing to move the ball after the first quarter and taking a hit on defensive reputation (and coaching reputation?) by allowing Juice Williams to play well enough to ear the USA Today Player of the Week award.
Can I Get There? No, this one is going to be ugly and probably painful to watch for both Michigan and Toledo faithful.
Further Review: Indiana went down last week to a surprisingly proficient Gopher passing game. They also fumbled twice on drives that, up until the turnover, showed some rhythm. The defense has been terrible all year, giving up close to 350 yards per game, a stat that includes games against Western Kentucky, Murray State and Ball State. Yes, Ball State is ranked but they aren't supporting a single win better than that against the Hoosiers. Iowa, on the other hand, is all over the place. They looked ok against "rival" Iowa State, but are currently riding a three game losing streak (Pitt, Northwestern and Michigan State). They did hold Ringer under 100 yards, but seem to kill themselves with turnovers, including a ridiculous five giveaways against Northwestern and three more against MSU. If they can curb this trend and get some consistency out of the offense, they may be a decent team. Turnovers don't trend as much as other stats, so you have to look at talent here instead of where they rank nationally in fumbles.
Can I Get There? Yes, Iowa is a much better team. This line would probably be a lot higher if they wouldn't have given away a couple of games already this year.
Minnesota @ Illinois
Illinois -12.5
Public Pick: Illinois (65%)
Initial Reaction: Minnesota beat Indiana but they are still Minnesota. With is being in Champaign I would have guessed closer to 14.
Further Review: If this thing does play out it like the line indicates then maybe the whole "Illinois is back!" conclusion after last week's stomping of Michigan was a bit premature. Minnesota looks like they have become a somewhat competent football team, but they couldn't really compete with OSU two weeks ago and didn't exactly dominate an Indiana team that is struggling right now. The one thing that is worth noting is that Illinois' defense isn't exactly a brick house. Their stats are skewed because they've faced two of the more powerful offenses in the nation (Missu and PSU), but even Michigan was able to punch it in three times last week. I can see a situation where the Illinois offense rolls all day but their lack of urgency on defense keeps the score closer than the game.
Can I Get There? I'm really close but I can't get over the hump. Right now I'm stuck on 14+.
Purdue @ Ohio State(11)
Ohio State -19
Public Pick: Purdue (60%)
Initial Reaction: I'm fine with this. Ohio State is much better than Purdue and it's going to be a challenge for Tiller to ruin the field when the game is in Columbus.
Further Review: Tressel has to realize by now that getting Pryor as many snaps as possible is going to pay very big dividends. It was clear last Saturday night that TP's abilities were pretty much in line with the hype. His passing looked hesitant, but his elusiveness in the pocked, combined with the time and space that Wells' presence creates, means I'm terrified of how good he could become. What I'm trying to say is that I don't expect Ohio State to shy away from "running it up" and I know for a fact Purdue doesn't have the defense to keep them from scoring. If Purdue can match offensive production, this could be a game, but they are in a bit of disarray right now and even have somewhat of a quarterback controversy. Yes Purdue has played Ohio State tough in the past, but it's hardly the rule and, to be honest, not really relevant.
Can I Get There? Yes.
Michigan State(19) @ Northwestern(22)
Michigan State -1.5
Public Pick: Michigan State (60%)
Initial Reaction: I'm surprised this isn't at least at MSU -3.
Further Review: MSU is clearly a team fueled by Javon Ringer’s ridiculous workload and I'm not sure that Northwestern is capable of stopping the inevitable 35-45 carries he is getting on Saturday. NW is currently ranked 35th in the nation in rush defense, not bat at 101 yards/game, but they also haven't faced anyone with MSU's ground stats. MSU was demoted in public perception after what was probably too close a game with Iowa; they were out-gained by roughly 30 yards and enjoyed a favorable turnover ratio of 3 to 1 but only managed a small win. Maybe this means MSU isn't well rounded enough to be the spoiler all of their fans are hoping. Ringer had a below average day and, as a result, they needed a bit of luck to outscore one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten. As LTP confirms, MSU is very much dependent on Ringer success.
Can I Get There? After a closer look at MSU, this game is probably a lot more like a pick. The 1.5 is, I'm sure, just a compensation for the Spartans being ranked higher in a totally arbitrary poll.
Penn State(6) @ Wisconsin(24)
Penn State -5.5
Public Pick: Penn State (60%)
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If Michigan loses this week
We ought to kick them out of the conference. Then warn Ohio State that they’re on alert.
New Rule
Every team that loses at home to Toledo gets kicked out of the Big Ten…
Oh wait…shit.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
That game isn't in my archives, either
God, that year sucked.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 9, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Positive thoughts.
37-9 since the IU goalline stand. 3 consecutive bowl wins. 6-0.
Ahh. I’m beginning to forget the bad old days.
I'll never forget the IU game
I watched the game at my old man’s place. I threw up my hands in disgust and walked outside when they got to the one-yard line. I didn’t think for one second that that team could win. Couple minutes later, he walks out with the biggest smile on his face. I’m still angry I didn’t see it.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 9, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a great stand
I can only imagine how let down Indiana was, never having beaten Penn State, on the 2 at home…I think that was the first time I cheered all season and it was the second to last game of the year.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
I called my old man
All I said was “hey, it beats losing”.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
On the bright side
At least Toledo went 11-1 that year, right?
by Run Up The Score on Oct 9, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
yup, 10-1
they sure had a great season.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 9, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
new rule
so it wouldn’t apply back to any other team that happened to lose at home to Toledo earlier this century/millenium
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 9, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Why, certainly not
What team are you talking about, anyway? It’s not like we ever played Toledo. Ahem.
by ReadingRambler on Oct 9, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Wisconsin
as home dogs scares me. A good team that is a home dog, is always a dangerous team.
PSU Softball
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a fragile team. The OSU game was pretty hard hitting. I don’t think they will be able to hang in there once they take a couple of shots from the PSU offense. If PSU can build a 10pt lead, I think its over for Wiscy.
Joe Knows
How to coach against Belimia with a lead — as soon as we have 10 points on them they’re toast (see last year). The problem is getting a lead, and this year that may not be a big problem. I am not confident though — our road games give me ulcers.
Also, don’t foget what Clark did to them last year — he had no problem running all over them, including a TD drive. I think Clark will run a lot more than he has, and that will be the difference.
Wisconsin
If Wiscy gets down early they are in a lot of trouble: if forced to throw they are screwed, and if they try to bring it back on the ground Bradley will let them just like he did against Illinois. At the time I was quite annoyed by what was going on, but in hindsight it was a very smart move IMO. Let them run the ball for eight minutes and kill the clock for us.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
I guess that is a way to put a good twist on it
I just thought Illinois was a good run team and we were having trouble stopping them. I liked Bradley a few seasons back but now I think he plays to much prevent D and doesn’t want to get burned over the top. I wish the D was more agressive and would biltz some more. We stuck back in coverage last week and let Purdue move the ball.
I like the fact that the line has moved in our direction
That’s encouraging to see it hasn’t gotten tighter but we’ve actually more of a favorite than we started out. I’m looking for any kind of sign because I’m really nervous about this game!
On the record as a longtime supporter of Daryll Clark
This Isn't Tehcnically A Good Sign
Public perception is not something to use to say “Ah, we’ve got a better chance now”. The line moved because most people believe we’re a significantly better team than Wiscy. While that’s comforting in a mob mentality sense, remember what that might lead to.
Yep
“Wiscy hasn’t been this big of a dog in their own house since they hosted Ohio State in 2003.”
How’d it turn out for Wisconsin the last time they were a big dog at home?
While it's interesting to point out
nothing could be less relevent to the 2008 Penn State-Wisconsin game than the 2003 Ohio State-Wisconsin game.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
but haven't you heard?
Wisconsin is unbeaten at home since the last time they played Ohio State at Camp Randall.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 9, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh
I wonder if they can keep it going tomorrow, too. We’ll have to see!
Completely off topic
But that Clemson/Wake game was absolutely terrible. Both defenses made some nice plays but it was mostly both offenses falling on their faces. Especially Clemson in the first half and Wake in the red zone. Jeesh.
Clemson's team
Good defense, shameful offense. They have a QB who has a big arm but has 0 accuracy or touch; throws INTs on his own 20 on a reletively easy pass (that is, if you don’t stare down your receiver); he can’t sustain a drive to save his life; has a ‘dumb as a rock expression’, and no fire on the field.
Wait a minute, that all sounds kinda familiar…
That occured to me as well
He even looks like he who shall not be named. Strange.
Everyone is WAY too high on Wisconsin
Behemoth offensive line, 2 good running backs, no quarterback play to speak of, good run defense, somewhat suspect against the pass, even a burgeoning controversy behind center. I’m sorry, but is there any difference between Wisconsin and Iowa? And are any of you afraid of Iowa?
Sure, Mad Town is a tough place to play, but Jesus Fucking Christ OSU did it with a freshman.
Penn State wins this game, and wins BIG.
"Bob Zook has to be the laziest man alive"
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