Potential BCS scenarios

I don’t think the not winning the conference thing would matter. I could be wrong, but I think the only way we go is if every team ahead of us (except for one) has two losses. So, it’d probably have to be something like:

-Texas Tech or Oklahoma State beats OU
-Texas A&M beats Texas
-FSU beats Florida
-Auburn beats Bama
-Florida beats Bama
-UCLA/ND/whoever beats USC

I could be wrong, but I just don’t think we’re going to pass any team that is currently ranked ahead of us if they only have 1 loss. I’m really not getting my hopes up for that scenario to play out. I’d be very happy with a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl berth so that’s what I’m going to worry about for now.

week 11 ohio st was 1
week 12 they were 7
week 13 they were 5
then they were in the NC game… its college football, anything is possible…

anyways, ive always wanted to go to Pasadena, however i never thought it would hurt as much as it did last week…
oh well see you all this saturday at noon…

WE ARE

the collective media would be messing their pants if they got an all ESSSS EEEE CEEEE championship game. could you imagine the arguments… the SEC is so good they got two teams in the MNC game.

on the flip side it would be fun to watch the football know alls explain why both SEC teams didn’t win the national championship (because we all know that its impossible for an SEC team to lose) and that the losing team didn’t really lose the game

sorry about your loss this weekend. I’m an Alabama fan, and I was really hoping to play Penn State for the NC or that if we were in the Sugar Bowl we’d somehow play you there.

Anyway, I’d like to make a couple of points. First off, it will be so hypocritical if a non-conference champion goes to the national championship after what happened to Georgia last year. At the end of the regular season Georgia was ranked 4th in the BCS. They had record of 9-2 (stellar considering the year), and most people considered them to be the best team in the nation based on how they were playing at that point. When the #1 and 2 teams lost, Georgia was in a prime position to move into the #2 slot, HOWEVER, Georgia had been denied the opportunity to play in the SEC Championship game because they lost the tie-breaker with Tennessee. Everyone and their brother chimed in saying that you should not get to the national championship if you don’t win your conference championship.

Because of the “must win your conference” attitude, the pollsters jumped LSU from #7 up to #2. This was despite the fact that LSU had just lost their last regular season game to an unranked Arkansas team and their SEC championship win was against a mediocre 9-4 Tennessee team. So much for another tenet of poll voters: “lose early, win late”, which brings me to my second point…

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“Scenario 2) We play the Big XII champion…For this to happen… 2. Alabama to lose to either Mississippi State or Auburn, drop far enough down that even the win in the SEC title game doesn’t get them back in. Even still, they’d probably go to the MNC game, so let’s hope for option 1 here.”- The JuggerNitt

Most of the pundits are saying that we would not make it to the NC game if we were to drop 1 and then beat Florida, but that depends on what Florida does:

1- If Florida still only has one loss going to Atlanta, then they’ll be ranked #1 or 2. In that case, I think the win propels us past Penn State for sure. Not sure about USC. Pundits say no, but I think it’s a maybe. Our best hope would be for Oregon State to win out. Then we’d have the Conf. Championship argument over USC. If USC does win the Pac 10, then it’s going to be close. USC would have the perception of their greatness going for them as well as their loss being earlier and not as bad as Alabama’s. But they’d only have one signature win. Alabama would have the really bad late loss against them, but also a conf. championship win against the #1 or 2 team in the nation, a dominating road win against Georgia when they were ranked #3, and a road win against #16 LSU. I think the bottom line is that it’s just too hard to comprehend Alabama losing to Auburn or Miss St. (given how terrible they are) and then beating Florida (with how good they are playing).

2- If ‘Bama and Florida both lose a remaining regular season game, then you’ll jump both of us. You’ll need to pull for Missouri to win the Big 12 Championship or Oregon State to win out and for the “must win conference” principle to be upheld. If both of those happen, then it’s total chaos. You’ve got:

a) a big 12 champion with 2 losses or more.
b) USC and 1 or 2 Big 12 teams ranked high but without a conference title
c) Penn State (late loss, Big 10 conf. title, but no conf. championship game win)
d) either Florida as SEC champ with 2 losses or ’Bama as SEC champ with a late loss to a horrible team.

wouldn’t that be something!

Alabama—— Miss State, Auburn( big rivalry) Florida (SEC Championship)
Texas Tech- I say they go undefeated.
Florida 1 loss— SC(ball coach), FSU SEC Championship
Texas- 1 loss Kansas(always possible) Texas A&M(rivalry but not likely) possible big 12 title
Oklahoma-1 loss TT, OSU, Big 12 Title,
USC 1loss Stanford, ND( you never know) UCLA (rivalry),
UTAH let’s not rule out BYU.
What about Boise State? if they win out then what? They already have a BCS win.
of course almost all of these things have to happen. but who’s to say it can’t?

The more I think our best shot is for someone from the Big 12 to go in as #1, whether that is TT, OU, or UT, it doesn’t really matter. I still believe that the powers that be won’t want a rematch game from 2 teams in the same conference in the title game, so that eliminates 3 teams ahead of us that we have to worry about.

That leaves us with Scenario 2 I mentioned above. Our best bet there I still think is to root for FSU to beat Florida, and Florida to beat Alabama (which still might not even be enough, so while we’re at it we can also hope that Auburn and/or Miss. St. beats Alabama as well).

I wonder how the voters and computers will look at USC and Penn State at the end of the year. I think if Oregon State wins the Pac-10 that will possibly help, but possibly hurt. It would help by reminding people that a) USC didn’t win the Pac-10, and b) that Oregon State beat USC, while Penn State beat Oregon State. It would hurt, though, since USC’s one loss would come to a team that people will look at and think is good, while they’ll look at Iowa and say we lost to a bad team. On the other hand if Oregon State doesn’t win out, then USC wins the Pac-10 and gets a credibility boost there.

I also think that a 1-loss BCS conference champion will get the nod over any non-BCS school, but Utah does have a pretty good case to make, and this might just be the year that they break into the championship game.

So when it comes down to it, all we really need to happen is to win out and have 3 games (out of like 6 or 7 possible games) to go our way, and none of those games are that far-fetched. Still puts us at a really low chance, but some chance is better than no chance (ie Michigan)