Vegas Knows Best: The National Championship Picture
by KevinHD on Nov 11, 2008 3:23 PM EST
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Great news: even though I'm moving on, Vegas hasn't given up on Penn State yet. With the dread (or more specifically: whatever the opposite of euphoria is) just now leaving my system, I decided I would see what the world thinks a one point loss for an otherwise undefeated team means as far as the chances of said team winning a BCS Championship. This, of course, isn't about how good Penn State is, but rather a gauge of how good a team everyone else thinks Penn State is. You can't win a damn thing unless these guys say so.
Before we get to Penn State, teams from the SEC and Big XII are sporting some interesting numbers. (The odds are in traditional whole-number form, I've included the ratio to one in in parentheses.)
SEC:
Florida - 19/10 (1.90)
Alabama - 3/1 (3.00)
So despite being a clear number one in every poll, Alabama is actually a significantly longer shot to win the thing than Florida (relatively speaking, of course).
The neutralizer is the fact that both are on course to meet in the SEC championship game, and Florida has to be considered the favorite because of the way they are playing. Bama can't win it if they never even get to go to Miami.
Big XII:
Oklahoma - 17/4 (4.25)
Texas - 17/4 (4.25)
Texas Tech - 19/4 (4.75)
This one is more fun if only because someone is probably going to get screwed and we'll get to hear them whine about it. The big moment comes the Saturday after next, a day in which Texas Tech attempts to get over it's biggest hurdle in Oklahoma on the road. Winning this game means they are a lock for their conference championship game, however Tech hasn't played a tough road game yet and it's going to be interesting to see how they respond. Based on the odds above, I suspect Oklahoma will be a larger than expected favorite when the line comes out. If the Sooners do win the home game, that sends to Big XII into a type of tie-breaking tailspin in which the representative for the Big XII championship game is decided by highest BCS rank. This is where Tech really gets screwed for losing late, and leads to an interesting discussion about Oklahoma and Texas. The Longhorns are currently ranked higher, but if Oklahoma dominates the Tech game the momentum will play a huge part in the minds of the fickle and short sighted voters. This is all fun for you, by the way, because as long as your team is removed from the discussion, (in the words of Dr. Saturday) "Rooting interest: chaos. Always chaos".
There is some discussion at Burnt Orange Nation about the BCS selecting two Big XII teams for the MNC if Florida could somehow lose to, say, Florida State, but then beat Alabama in the SEC championship game. This is incredibly unlikely (both the Florida results and the Big XII benefit). The voters will be very resistant to allowing not only a rematch but one in which the SEC they've been pumping for so long is left out. I think Alabama still has a shot despite losing their conference (a la Oklahoma 2003) and besides, the song girls are sitting right there at 9-1.
Speaking of one loss teams not playing in the Big XII or SEC:
USC - 9/1 (9.00)
Penn State - 50/1 (50.00)
Um, ouch. I expected more disagreement this week in the polls about the #6 spot. I thought the Oregon State game would give Penn State the edge, especially because the Ohio State comparison isn't really a valid one when you consider USC played at home against their backup quarterback and backup running back. I was not surprised in the least, though, and with both teams finishing with games against non-elite competition, Penn State doesn't really stand a chance of jumping USC on wins alone, they need a loss from the Trojans against either Stanford (Sagarin #57), Notre Dame (#53) or UCLA (#93). Not likly and reflected as such in the odds.
So I know this has been explored in some of the fanposts and comments, but for those of you still hoping for a BCS MNC bid make sure to understand the long list of long shot things that all need to happen in order to get Penn State in the game. Then they would have to, you know, win it. In fact, at 50:1, Penn State is probably a pretty bad bet.
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Oh, I understand the longshot of things that would have to happen
and realize it is a bad bet. It just isn’t as bad a bet as I thought when we first lost to Iowa, or when I first looked at the BCS standings.
Once I realized that basically all the teams in the Top 5 are from the SEC and Big 12, and looked at possible scenarious, though, it really wasn’t as far fetched as I thought for Penn State to get back into the title hunt. Granted before we had probably an 80% chance, and now our chances are probably around 2-5%.
It will be interesting to see, though, if the SEC champion winds up being a 2-loss Florida (with a loss to Ole Miss & F$U), or a 1-loss Alabama (who lost to a crappy team in Miss St. or Auburn), and if the Big XII champion winds up being Missouri, what tendencies will the BCS break.
Will they invite a 2 loss team over numerous 1-loss teams? Will they invite a non-conference champion with 1 loss over a conference champion with 1 loss? Will they invite a non-BCS school? There’s a lot of potential for chaos with the outcome of just 3 games (if 1a F$U beats Florida, who then beats 2a Alabama, or if Miss St. or Auburn beat 1b Alabama, who then beats 2b Florida, and if Missouri wins 3 the Big XII championship)
Let’s go chaos!!!!
Can we get Professor Chaos as our mascot on BSD for the next few weeks?
John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...
by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Nov 11, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
"We are Penn State. We are not normal. We are Legends." - Deon Butler
by Stately NOVA Lion on Nov 12, 2008 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
2 things made me LOL
One, just remembering this episide….and dressing him up like a puppy to take to the vet.
Two, reading “Butler” as “Butters” in your signature.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Before Iowa, PSU had a little less than a 60% chance of going undefeated and in turn about a 45-50% chance of receiving a MNC birth.
50-1 is absolutely horrible value right now. The main problem is that not only would all of those shenanigans have to happen for them to get in, but the only team they would be favored against would be Alabama.
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
by HolyBuckeye on Nov 12, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
oh, I wasn't even trying to start debating if we would WIN the MNC
just what would happen for us to get in. Also, 50-1 is MUCH better than Infinity-1, which is the case for most teams out there.
because when life seems jolly rotten, there’s something you’ve forgotten…
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
gotcha
just pointing out that they need to win for you to cash a 50-1 ticket. I’m not disagreeing that there is still some sort of chance they make it. Sucks they’re behind USC, as Kevin noted in the post.
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
and not debating whether they would win or get in, just stating what their chances of doing so are. No opinions stated. Either way, I’ll be rooting for chaos along with you guys.
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
oh, and I take it there won't be another "Penn State Undefeated Season Odds" posts again
unless you really want to taunt us and put a 0% up there :-p
Actually…where were you getting the pointspreads for those games in your posts? It would be interesting to see the % chance of some of the outcomes I’m rooting for.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think you get it
My pain is equal to your pain, I would be taunting myself. I wouldn’t have been doing it if I didn’t have a financial position behind penn state.
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Spread+ML+Converter.aspx
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
right right, I remember where you said the converter was
I meant where you got spreads for the games that far in advance. I’m not a regular college game bettor, and I never am able to find spreads past the current week or 2
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 13, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
What if the only 2 undefeateds left were
Utah and Boise State?
Do they, as the only 2 undefeated teams, deserve to play for the MNC?
I bleed Blue and White.
The writers don't really want it either
As much as they like to take their side in the papers, they don’t want to have to write about Utah for a month. Also, how many non-BCS coaches vote in the USA Today poll? I’d could look it up but I have a feeling it’s just a couple more than none.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
That would just be dumb.
Maybe dumb enough to get a push for a playoff from the big leagues ;)
I don't know, Mello Yello is pretty awful. What's the worst that could happen?
last year
Hawaii was the only undefeated team left in the country (prior to the bowls). They were like10th or so in the rankings (behind teams with 3 losses, even!), and then got destroyed by Georgia. I at least hope the aversion for non-BCS teams is more than the aversion for a Big 10 team.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 11, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Hawaii also played an absolute joke of a schedule (their SOS would have ranked in the 30s in 1-AA). That’s not true of Utah, especially (SOS #59 according to Sagarin, which is comparable to PSU and Alabama thus far).
I can actually see a little bit of a case for an unbeaten Utah ahead of a one-loss Alabama or PSU, maybe even USC, but not ahead of a one-loss Florida (whose strength of schedule is #9 right now) or a one-loss Big XII team (Oklahoma’s SOS is #43 right now but they have two top-10 teams coming up; Texas Tech is a little dicier at #45 with only one top-10 game left, but the number of huge wins compared to merely good ones for Utah is important). Not a certainty, mind you, but I don’t think it would be entirely unreasonable to take them. I wouldn’t take Boise or Ball State over any one-loss BCS team, though.
(That said, any system that leaves unbeatens out is inherently broken. But given that we have to somehow pick the two most deserving teams, there are teams that belong ahead of some of them even with one or two losses.)
well apparently that SOS comparable to PSU
would be a huge disadvantage for them, cuz the lame Big 10 leading Penn State is LAME. I actually don’t know how I would feel if Utah went to the championship game. I actually am all for more parity and equity in the game, and think that essentially automatic exclusions for non-BCS teams is BS.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 11, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
Odds don't look good.
“the long list of long shot things that all need to happen in order to get Penn State in the game”
But there’s a phrase that perfectly sums up this part of the post . . . .
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Ain’t nuthin’ on God’s green earth that is weirder. I’m not getting my hopes up. I’m not going to see it as a major letdown if the upsets don’t come to fruition. But, I am not throwing in the towel yet, either (besides, I like being naive sometimes). Ohio State .. . 2007 . . . 10-0 before their loss to IL . . . next to last game of the season. Just sayin’
"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"
The rope may break because . . .
considering how PSU played v. Iowa, the Michigan State game looms VERY LARGE.
Even if he had beaten Iowa
And the unthinkable happened and Michigan State, beat us, they would have still gotten the nod over us as Big Ten Champs. Off the hip I’m not sure what would have been the case if PSU/MSU/O$U would have all ended up 7-1 in the Big Ten, but regardless the Michigan State game wouldn’t have been any different in terms of the Big Ten title.
PSU/MSU/OSU
MSU “wins” because they didn’t play any I-aa teams. They all “win” as in get to print “Big Ten Champ” T-Shirts. It’s really just one more thing to love about the Big Ten.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Winning co-Big 10 champs honors is like the Special Olympics
even when you win….you still have JoePa at the games. What…you thought I was gonna say something else?
By the way, when I was a coach with the Special Olympics were the first time I ever got close to JoePa. This was when I was still in high school, and wasn’t yet a die-hard fan (just an “oh, they’re the team from my state, I hope they do well” fan), so I didn’t quite appreciate it as much as I should have. Still a great man.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Florida is more of a favorite but lower in the polls because...
they’ve lost a game, the odds makers apparently believe that both will win out and Florida will beat Bama in the SEC Championship game.
"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson
bingo
by a decent margin, as well.
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
I predict USC PSU NC
Book it. done.
No but seriously, as chaos ensues, and I believe it will, it’s going to be a wild ride.
One other note: Anyone else find it oddly satisfying that we have more teams to root against (thus more games with personal rooting interest?). A week ago we had 2 teams we were really rooting against, plus the usual suspects (Pitt, USC, Fl St.).
We just quadrupled teams I will root against, and that will make the next 3 weeks a little more exciting.
unfortunately
unless Citadel can pull out a miracle, Florida State is temporarily going from a team to root against, to a team to root for…shudder
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
The day of the UF/FSU game is going to be torture
Just like the Pitt/ND game was, because my only happiness would come from both teams losing.
Maybe we can hope that F$U beats Florida in the game
but after the season is over, and inevitably another scandal breaks out at F$U they have to go back and forfeit the game. By then it will be too late to change the outcome of the season, but in effect both teams “lose” and we can have our cake and eat it too :-D
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 12, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
I like the way you think, sir
"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"
Rose Bowl Dud
Has anybody thought of the possibility of a rematch in the Rose Bowl against Oregon State? If OSU wins out (Cal, Arizona, Oregon) they would win the Pac 10. I don’t know about the rest of PSU Nation, but I would truly be upset if this happened. Not only would the rematch do nothing to enhance the “down Big 10”, but it would cause great pain if the Lions lost to a team they beat by 21 points back in Sept. I know the chances are good that OSU goes down in one of their remaining three but the possibility is out there. The only way this season ends on the biggest high it can is if the Lions roll into Southern Cal and come out with a victory against USC. Of course this is all meaningless if we lose one of our next two games. I just thought I’d put it out there.
For The Glory…
Even worse
Now that we lost it’s not as much of a possibility, but if we were undefeated and Michigan State were to beat us and be the Big Ten champs…could you imagine a Michigan State/Oregon State Rose Bowl??? Thank God we seem to have avoided that one.
Well that would have been better than MSU vs USC
since then MSU would likely get demolished, further tainting the image of the Big 10. At least against OrSU they would have a decent chance at winning, and at least looking respectable.
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 13, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
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