Week 12 Blogpoll Ballot

by BSD on Nov 17, 2008 11:00 AM EST in Blogpoll

Pretty boring week of college football, so not a lot of changes to the poll.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Texas	--
4	Florida	--
5	Oklahoma	--
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Penn State	--
8	Utah	--
9	Boise State	--
10	Oklahoma State	--
11	Ohio State	1
12	Missouri	1
13	Georgia	2
14	Brigham Young	--
15	Ball State	--
16	Michigan State	1
17	Pittsburgh	2
18	Oregon State	5
19	TCU	2
20	Cincinnati	2
21	Miami (Florida)	5
22	Maryland	4
23	Oregon	3
24	LSU	4
25	North Carolina	9

Dropped Out: Florida State (#18), South Carolina (#24), Virginia Tech (#25).

0 recs | Comment 26 comments

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Comments

Just curious

as to your rationale behind putting USC ahead of PSU.

Was their loss to a 7 win (7-3) team (that we beat 45-14, mind you) better than our loss to a 7 win (7-4) team?

Are their (admittedly dominating) wins over an arguably “weaker” conference (Washington and Washington St, anyone?) better than our wins in the “weak” Big-10?

Is their 6 points worse per game win margin against common opponents (the 2 OSU’s) better than our 6 points per game better win margine against common opponents?

Was their home win over OSU’s backup QB and RB better than our win at Columbus against OSU with a healthy Beanie Wells and Terrelle Pryor coming into the game as the clear starter?

Plus, where’s your homerism?

If you are voting using the “who would win on a neutral field most often” method, then I could see USC ahead of PSU, but if you are doing resume voting (which is what I think is the better way of ranking than guessing who is actually better), then I don’t see how people honestly put USC ahead.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 11:12 AM EST 0 recs

Well

Part of it was probably the emotional reaction to the events last week and everyone just keeping the status quo this week. I seem to recall a large sentiment that approved of this lineup last week.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Nov 17, 2008 11:31 AM EST up 0 recs

And I have to say that at this point in the season

USC just plain looks better than us. The team we fielded in the last 3 games (especially the offense) is not the same team we fielded in the first 8 games of the season. We seem to be getting worse, not better.

USC, although also not looking particularly steller, has been looking better than us as of late. Just my opinion, though.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Nov 17, 2008 11:33 AM EST up 0 recs

well that was sorta my question

was this a vote on which team looks better right now, and that would win neutral field game more often than not, or was this an evaluation of the season as a whole.

As for last week’s ballot, I tried not to look at any polls after last weekend, and yes, at the time the emotions of the loss probably made me a little down on PSU so I might not have noticed or cared. I think I was also in the “rankings don’t matter now, since all that matters now is our Big 10 standings” mindset, but now I think they do matter, because if something happens where Alabama and Florida lose a game or 2, then either USC or us will be going to the national championship, and yes, I know this vote doesn’t count towards anything than the blogpoll, but this is the only vote I have any chance of influencing :-p

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 11:40 AM EST up 0 recs

no rose bowl for USC if Oregon State wins out though

by jebatzel on Nov 17, 2008 11:46 AM EST up 0 recs

And if OrSt wins out, how can USC play for the MNC?

Wouldn’t people use the “they didn’t even win their conference” argument to keep them out of the NCG? Or does that rule not apply to USC because they’re USC.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Nov 17, 2008 12:53 PM EST up 0 recs

see:

Nebraska 2003 (didn’t even play in Big XII title game)
Oklahoma 2004 (lost in Big XII title game)

(I think those are the years…I’m pulling them from memory)

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 1:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Nope

It doesn’t apply to USC because USC will win a share of the Pac 10 title unless they lose to UCLA. Unless you’re going to take away Ohio State’s 2002 BCS title, because they were co-Big Ten champs with Iowa (and Iowa held the Rose Bowl tiebreaker, though do to some obscure BCS rules at the time, Iowa ended up playing Pac 10 co-champ USC in the Orange Bowl, while Washington State lost the Rose Bowl to a Big 12 team).

by drothgery on Nov 17, 2008 3:57 PM EST up 0 recs

Probably because of their defense

USC’s defense is nasty. Points given up by game:

7 to Virginia
3 to Ohio State
27 to Oregon State
10 to Oregon
0 to Arizona State
0 to Washington State
10 to Arizona State
0 to Washington
3 to California
23 to Stanford

by jimbo2psu on Nov 17, 2008 11:56 AM EST up 0 recs

Penn State averages 3 ppg worse on defense...not that much

11.3 against us vs 8.3 against them

10 to Coastal Carolina
14 to Oregon State
13 to Syracuse
3 to Temple
24 to Illinois
6 to Purdue
7 to Wisconsin
17 to Michigan
6 to Ohio State
23 to Iowa
7 to Indiana

Look at common opponents, also: we gave up 3 more to tOSU (with their starting RB back, and Terrelle Pryor with some experience), but 13 less to Oregon State.

So while their defense has been performing better than ours, it isn’t by a huge amount, and against common opponents we even look better.

They look “nastier” because they put up shutouts against the 2 Washington schools (who are 117 and 118 in scoring offense this year), and Arizona, who is 76th in scoring offense. Who knows what we would have done…probably played shutout ball and then let our 2nd and 3rd stringers in at halftime who give up garbage points.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 12:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Clarifications...

Shutout was against ASU. They beat Arizona 17-10.

by IcersGuy on Nov 17, 2008 12:40 PM EST up 0 recs

d'oh

I actually knew that, and Arizona State’s ranking is 76th in the country (Arizona is actually 11th in the nation).

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 12:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Figured as much...

just helping out those who might be playing the home version of this game. :)

by IcersGuy on Nov 17, 2008 1:02 PM EST up 0 recs

thanks

my bad. put ASU in there twice

by jimbo2psu on Nov 17, 2008 1:09 PM EST up 0 recs

Some very good points

I have a severe hatred for comparing common opponents, though. IMO, there are enough variables game-to-game to make it very difficult to take anything meaningful out of it. I completely agree though, we did look better overall against our 2 common opponents collectively, I just don’t know that it means that much.

True, they shut out some REALLY crappy offenses and crappy teams in general, but we gave up 10 points to C.Carolina, a long TD to Indiana, and 13 to Syracuse, arguably the worst 3 teams on our schedule. We have just enough total lapses on defense to make me nervous about the unit going into a game, whereas it seems like USC has been able to prevent these types of big plays. It’s really nitpicking and guessing, but for one spot in the rankings I’d say it’s justification enough.

by jimbo2psu on Nov 17, 2008 1:16 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree on the disadvantages over comparing head to head matchups

when breaking down specific stats, because as you said, a lot of variables changed.

I think looking at win-loss in head to head is a meaningful stat. We are 2-0, they are 1-1.

Win margin is also somewhat meaningful. We are 6 points better on average.

And yes, you can say that their defense remained more focued (or is deeper with better backups) during the blowouts than ours did, since we gave up some points while they didn’t. Shutouts do look more impressive, but I’m not going to fault a team for giving up some points when the game is already won.

I’m also not saying that USC necessarily should be ranked below us. I personally feel they should, but I am a homer. I’d like to think if I was actually doing rankings myself, though, I would look at these things as well, and still put PSU ahead of USC.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that I can think of some pretty good arguments for Penn State to be ahead of USC, and some slight statistical advantages that USC holds over Penn State. In the end I think it is because PSU’s loss is more recent, and USC is the media’s darling, but Mike doesn’t have to think like that. Mike can be a bit of a homer (hey, he had PSU as #1 one week ;-) ). You know you want to put PSU ahead of USC, Mike. C’mon, just do it.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 1:34 PM EST up 0 recs

If it were up to me

My 1-loss teams would go

Texas
Oklahoma
Penn St.
USC
Florida

My rankings based on quality of loss. I also really hate Florida because they act like its their god given right to be in the MNC game. When I think of Florida’s loss I think of it this way: If you killed a guy just because you felt like it, but then saved 100 babies from a burning building, you’re not excused from going to jail just becasue you did something good.

P.S. I hope Bowden destoys UF. I think I would actually trade JoePa having the most wins for a FSU win over UF.

by whiteoutonly on Nov 17, 2008 2:01 PM EST up 0 recs

I wouldn't make that trade

unless that game also helped us get to, and win, a national championship game

Also, BC beat Florida, so JoePa is the clear leader again, at least for the time being.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 17, 2008 2:10 PM EST up 0 recs

I totally agree...

With the Florida part. They lost early, so now they’re excused. Thats the one thing I don’t like about the BCS. Of the one losses, I think Florida is the only one that can classify their loss as embarrassing.

As for the wins record, I’d much rather have that than Florida out of the MNC.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 17, 2008 3:18 PM EST up 0 recs

I've pretty much

resigned myself to the fact that Bowden is just going to coach one more year than Joe. Bobby is 4 years younger, we all know its gonna happen. So a UF loss to FSU would be very satisfying while also increasing our chances greatly of getting back to the MNC game. Plus, as I said before, I just hate Florida, I always have, don’t know why. I actually hate FSU pretty much too. Strangely I’ve always liked Miami though.

by whiteoutonly on Nov 17, 2008 4:24 PM EST up 0 recs

USC lost early, as well

If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.

by TheMightyErik on Nov 18, 2008 8:24 PM EST up 0 recs

How long did the Condoms, er, Trojans, keep their first string in?

I think Carroll, and some of these Big 12 and SEC schools, are notorious for piling it on. Since margin of victory is not supposed to count in the computer formulas, how many of these coaches are still doing it to get the votes in the polls?

by Ab4PSU on Nov 18, 2008 11:30 AM EST up 0 recs

Some scenarios for Miami?

A&M beats Texas
Auburn beats Alabama (it is a rivalry game; remember last year Pitt at WVU) and ‘bama loses to Florida in the SEC title game
The Seminoles beat Florida (I can root for Bowden once)
Tech beats Oklahoma
Notre Dame finally lives up to their so-called fucking hype and beats USC (never thought I’d root for ND or Weiss)
We jump Utah simply because they aren’t us

Some far fetched assumptions. But, if you look at the rankings right now, if we win Saturday and Florida beats the tide (even if the tide does beat Auburn), we’ve beaten more teams ranked at the end of the year than ‘bama. Course we won’t get no love because WE ARE!!! PENN STATE!!! and not an SEC school.

by Ab4PSU on Nov 18, 2008 11:28 AM EST 0 recs

I was lookig at a similar scenario

only with UCLA getting the upset win over USC (thus being able to avoid the need to root for ND) and BYU getting a win over Utah.

Even back before Texas Tech beat Texas I was saying to some coworkers that you can’t rule out the possiblity of A&M pulling off the upset over Texas. It’s just one of those kind of rivalries. I actually liked that possibility even more when there was a chance of Texas (had they won the game against TT) coming into the A&M game undefeated and ranked number one.

As much as I dislike (as my brother-in-laws likes to affectionately call him) “Fat A$$” Bobby Bowden, I think FSU has a real shot at taking FL down. The FSU loss to BC I think makes that even more of a possibility.

Redemption + rivaly (sometimes)= upset (and sets up the A&M vs TX, Auburn vs AL, USC vs UCLA, FSU vs FL games up nicely . . . maybe even BYU vs Utah to some extent).

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Nov 18, 2008 11:55 AM EST up 0 recs

I outlined basically the same thing in this post

Possible BCS Scenarios

The beauty is that we don’t need to move to #1, just to #2, so we only really need the teams from either the SEC or the Big 12 to falter, since it is a pretty safe assumption that they won’t want a conference rematch in the title game (see OSU & Michigan in 2006). I think the most likely scenario is for Auburn to beat Alabama, Florida State to beat Florida, and Florida to beat Alabama. We might not even need Auburn to beat Alabama (but we probably do), since they might frown upon a team that doesn’t even win its own conference (but they still let in Nebraska 2003, and Oklahoma 2004…I think those are the right years).

Facing the SEC in the championship game would be tricker, since for the Big XII we would need more teams to lose, since I could see them jumping one of the Big XII south teams that doesn’t go to the Big XII championship game to then go to the National Championship game if the South representative loses in the Big XII title game (a la Nebraska 2003 I think)

We hopefully can hop Utah if they lose, or just because we beat Sparty and people vote us back ahead.

USC we probably won’t jump, unless they lose, but I still think we should be ahead of them anyway, especially if they don’t even win their own conference (tiebreaker included).

Still, a really small chance of those things happening (something like 1.5% if you use point spread odds ), but more than 0, which is what 100+ teams are looking at right now.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 18, 2008 1:03 PM EST up 0 recs