Penn State Jumped In AP [Don't Start Burning Things Yet]
by Kevin HD on Nov 2, 2008 2:23 PM EST
in Football
57 comments
Note: I was going to wait until the BCS actually came out to post on this, but because I’m anticipating a large reaction to the AP Poll alone, let’s just talk about it now. I’ll update as more information becomes apparent [BCS is out, updated below].
Apparently swept up in the drama of Texas Tech’s win yesterday, the AP writers have jumped the Red Raiders over Penn State, giving them twice as many first place votes. It’s not a consensus opinion, however, as the #2 and #3 ranked teams are separated by just three points.
There are a couple of things to remember about Penn State’s #3 AP spot, all really just reasons why we need to remind ourselves to relax. Patience, people.
- Texas Tech has all the intangibles going for them right now. Not only was it a prime time game, but it was a great finish on the same day that Penn State was sitting at home, forgotten, on a bye week. This type of euphoria will fade. Besides, this poll, like all of them except for the final one, is just a temporary newspaper filler and should be treated as such.
- It’s still a long season, and the chances of TT going undefeated are slim. Besides that, Alabama’s game with Florida is looking more and more like a loss every week.
- Most importantly: The AP Poll doesn’t count in the BCS formula. Penn State is still comfortably in the #2 spot in the Coaches’ Poll. They not only have a decent lead in points, but also a large number of first place votes (14 compared to Texas Tech’s 6).
An undefeated Penn State team is going to take a lot of heat. Hell, they already are. But the bottom line is that if they continue to win their games there isn’t anything to panic about. A one loss team is going to have a very tough time overcoming the computer polls, which will most likely favor Penn State by a wide margin if in fact they are the only undefeated. This will help compensate for any dissent in the human rankings.
Depending on how the Harris Poll comes out, Penn State has a good chance of taking the #2 spot in the BCS and, as they say, will be in control of their own destiny.
Update #1: The Harris Poll is out and, while Penn State is sitting at #2...wow. Texas Tech is of course at #3 followed by Florida at #4. Oklahoma sits at #5 despite having a loss to #6 Texas. But then, as if to make up for this, someone actually kept Texas at #1 in their ballot. We are truly living in strange times.
Anyway, with both human polls putting Penn State at #2, I suspect they will hold that spot when the final BCS rankings come out tonight.
Update #2: Um, nevermind.
So I underestimated how badly we would be getting owned in the computer polls. Although #2 in both human rankings, there wasn't enough of a gap between Penn State and Texas Tech to hold onto the two spot.
Although we remain at #3, don't think for a second that this week was a wash. TT would have jumped Penn State eventually anyway if they win out, so we need them to lose regardless of the current standings. The difference is that now we root against Texas Tech instead of Texas, and the chances of the Red Raiders falling is a lot higher than those of a second Longhorn loss.
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Oh Oh Oh
Didn’t see this one coming. But the Pollspeak voted “Worst Voter of the Week” is at it again. See the post under this one for a link to his blog.
by hasuprotoss on Nov 2, 2008 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
gotta just keep our heads down...
and win out…all will be well, the polls will resolve themselves
hopes Maybin wipes his ass with some TP
by conquering lion in the 215 on Nov 2, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Full Poll
1. Alabama (46) 9-0 1,600
2. Texas Tech (12) 9-0 1,528
3. Penn State (6) 9-0 1,525
4. Florida (1) 7-1 1,398
5. Texas 8-1 1,353
6. Oklahoma 8-1 1,324
7. USC 7-1 1,250
8. Oklahoma State 8-1 1,198
9. Boise State 8-0 1,030
10. Utah 9-0 1,028
11. TCU 9-1 958
12. Ohio State 7-2 898
13. Missouri 7-2 830
14. Georgia 7-2 808
15. LSU 6-2 746
16. Ball State 8-0 594
17. Brigham Young 8-1 536
18. Michigan State 8-2 456
19. North Carolina 6-2 418
20. West Virginia 6-2 303
21. California 6-2 288
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 286
23. Maryland 6-2 242
24. Florida State 6-2 128
25. Pittsburgh 6-2 96
Others Receiving Votes
Northwestern 88, Tulsa 72, Kansas 60, Minnesota 23, Cincinnati 16, Oregon State 16, South Carolina 10, Louisville 8, Air Force 6, Arizona 3, CENTRL MICHIGAN 1, South Florida 1.
Dropped From Rankings
Tulsa 19, Minnesota 20, Oregon 23, South Florida 24.
by Run Up The Score on Nov 2, 2008 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Who cares about the polls...
Put aside the polls for the moment.
That TT bell ringer must have been getting a lot of action before, just for looking like Weird Al Yahkovik’s kid. He must be the big man on campus now!!!
by MicrobrewPSU on Nov 2, 2008 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This is a good thing
Alabama and TT won’t both win out. Getting disrespected will get the team motivated. The team is far less likely to come out flat against Iowa knowing the media hates them.
Ohio State played as if it had nothing to prove in the 2006 and 2007 title games. Penn State will be playing for respect the rest of the way. This is the right mindset.
by gcdyersb on Nov 2, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I love
TT head coach.
Don’t worry…lots of FB left to play
by SweepTheLeg on Nov 2, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me...
AP Voter: But what’s the Big XII/SEC team du jour?
ESPN Talking Head: That would be the team of the day, Texas Tech.
AP Voter: Mmmmmm, That sounds good. I’ll have that.
by The Mess on Nov 2, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a major issue with it
For one thing, this will sort itself out very quickly: TT has to play Oklahoma and Oklahoma State still. If they win both of those, they clearly deserve to be ahead of PSU. If they don’t, PSU will pass them again.
Second, the win over Texas is at least on par with the win in Columbus – even if it was a home game. Texas is quite a bit better than Ohio State.
Honestly, I think PSU has a better case to be ahead of Alabama (who got a huge boost from beating a severely overrated Clemson team early in the season before anyone knew just how bad Clemson really is) than Texas Tech at this point.
by SpartanDan on Nov 2, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Completely agree
I think Alabama will get exposed much like Georgia, Auburn, and LSU have been. Florida should handle them. Although that could mean we’d play Florida in the title game, but….Iowa first.
I really think yesterday played out the way we wanted it to. Texas wasn’t going to lose if it won last night, and Texas Tech still has a tough road ahead. They rode the emotion of the crowd, the night game, and the #1 ranked in-state rival for the first half, then were able to hold on in the second half. That last drive was impressive, but Texas’ freshman DBs helped them out quite a bit.
But, Iowa Iowa Iowa. I’ll be there. I never thought I’d be so excited to be visiting that state.
by speedomike on Nov 2, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It does not matter
Where Tech is right now is meaningless, the same as Texas after the OU game. If TT beats OU and OSU, they will be #1. If not, they’re out. Problem solved
by PSUhorn on Nov 2, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the reality check
I had fully anticipated this myself. TT is undefeated, and knocking off the current #1 IS worthy of a 6 position jump. It still sucks, but the Big 12 always, always, always gets the AP love (cough Nebraska *cough*).
Sooner or later, the real TT defense is going to show up to a game and they will lose 56-48, the same as every other year.
Or, better yet could you imagine a TT-PSU championship. That would be sweet!!!
by JeremyInDC on Nov 2, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bama and TT
If Bama and TT win out they will make the title game, no doubt. PSU will not have a chance at the title game no matter what they do. So we really don’t control our own destiny. I’m not saying this scenerio is likely – probably a 80%+ chance of one of them going down, but you still should be a realist.
by dbeach13 on Nov 2, 2008 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and ya know what
if Alabama and TT run the table I will be fine with them playing for the championship and us going to the Rose Bowl. Then we can put the smackdown on USC, turn around, and give our Big Ten bretheren the finger for screwing us again.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Nov 2, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Although probably unsatisfying
It would be nice to give a big ol F U to the rest of the big 10. If we didn’t progress in so many other sports with the Big 10 I would really hate this stupid conference where no one likes us.
by psuphiman80 on Nov 2, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I reviewed the NCAA stats for all teams in question
At this point in the season stats are pretty reliable. The best 2 teams from this perspective are clearly Florida and PSU with USC pulling in a close third. I suspect that is about how this will all end. But first Iowa.
I don't know, Mello Yello is pretty awful. What's the worst that could happen?
by psu on Nov 2, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Harris Poll
PSU is #2 in the Harris Poll. We will be #2 in the BCS when it comes out later today.
THe AP Poll is completely meaningless, so don’t get caught up in this.
The Coaches and Harris polls are the only ones that matter.
PSU vs. Florida for the MNC!
I wish we could make those pretty boys play that game in Pennsylvania instead of Florida. Could you imagine those boys playing our men in January in Pennsylvania?
Pat Devlin in '08, er, '09
by Nick7 on Nov 2, 2008 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I put this in the update
But I just want to make sure everyone sees that someone in the Harris Poll gave Texas #1 vote.
This aggression will not stand, man. This aggression will not stand.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
by Kevin HD on Nov 2, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
I’m going to throw this out there…the SEC is not a great conference this year. Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss State, Kentucky and Arkansas are all terrible terrible football teams. South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, are mediocre. LSU is slightly above average. The big ten had teams this year that absolutely choked, a la Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois. I’m not implying that the Big ten is better than the SEC but it’s not a ridiculous difference. I’ve also noticed that while the Big 12 has great offenses, the defenses are just abysmal. It’s actually funny to watch sometimes. TTU had all the momentum and a guy on Texas runs a streak for 90 yard touchdown like it was nothing. That’s the #2 or #3 team alright. I just think nobody should worry about these polls that have us lower than we think we should be, but it really is annoying hearing all of the knocks on our conference.
by TheGunslinger on Nov 2, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
?
Does anyone know what time the bcs rankings come out?
"gotta love the HD"
by biscoiv on Nov 2, 2008 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
On the OT on Fox
right after they talk about “Kurt Warner’s Homecoming”
by 1982 on Nov 2, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That pic is sooooo creepy.
How do you get to be the bell ringer? Is there a test you have to pass?
by Tailgate Shogun on Nov 2, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll say this right now...
I highly doubt we’ll be at #2 in the BCS standings when they come out tonight. Highly doubt. Texas Tech will likely jump them in most statistical polls, and will be #1 in a large fraction of them.
It’ll probably be close, but Texas Tech will probably be #2.
I’ll also say right now that it won’t matter. Texas Tech beating Texas was fantastic for Penn State’s chances (along with Georgia losing to Florida), because it’s pulling the top teams closer together. A victory over Iowa and Michigan State should still be enough to push us up to #2.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Everything we needed
to happen yesterday happened. Now lets beat Iowa!
JoePa in '09
by JGuiher on Nov 2, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What concerns me:
1) PSU scatting on themselves and losing one of the final three.
2) Alabama and Texas Tech losing. Then PSU would have to face the best one loss team out there which I bet would be Florida. UF is a team that seems to match up very well against the Nittany Lions and scares the bejeezus out of me if we play in Miami.
by Cairo on Nov 2, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Love Me Some Gators...
In Miami just like Florida State in the Orange Bowl in 05. Give Joe a month to prepare his team and I love our chances vs. Florida in a National Champ game.
by PSUROLLS on Nov 2, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yawn
Florida’s blowout over Georgia was all about an absolutely awful offensive performance by Georgia. Those interceptions had little to do with decent defensive play, and way more to do with poorly-thrown balls and poor decisions and a completely unforced fumble.
First interception was short (and it was defensive PI, too), second interception was low, and the third interception was a mindbogglingly awful decision to throw into triple coverage.
I think Florida’s probably the best team in the SEC, but I don’t think they’re unbeatable. I think it’d be a great game.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Florida's not unbeatable.
Remember, they loss to fucking Ole Miss on a blocked PAT. Weak.
by Ab4PSU on Nov 2, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And
Everyone forgets Michigan smacked them around in their bowl game last year.
Stop the Tebow smash on 3rd and 1 and you stop Florida.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Nov 3, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so...
because doesn’t the BCS go 1/3 coaches poll, 1/3 Harris, and 1/3 comp? We are #2 in both Harris and coaches polls. Even if we’re #3 in comp. we should be #2 in the BCS. I think this is all correct.
by TheGunslinger on Nov 2, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Coaches Poll and Harris Poll are both tallied votewise. The statistical polls are tallied position-wise. Texas Tech will be something like 0.93/0.93/0.98, and Penn State will be something like 0.94/0.94/0.93.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Ok now it makes sense that it’s always so screwed up and, in fact, makes NO sense. Thanks for clearing that up. God I hate the BCS.
by TheGunslinger on Nov 2, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not that bad. You can’t really tally the statistical polls similar to the human polls, since the statistical polls all have different intrinsic ranges.
It’s also not that big a deal, like I said. The main thing Texas Tech winning did was pull all the top teams closer together. Penn State will still jump if they beat Michigan State – they’re a good team with a winning record – and if Oregon State continues to win, that’s as good as a decent win, too.
Unless the Big 12 doesn’t produce an undefeated team (i.e. TT loses), they have a hard-to-argue with resume. The thing that was huge yesterday was Georgia losing, and losing big. If the voters finally start realizing that LSU is not a top 25 team, that should start really hurting Alabama’s resume.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
SO close...
It’s actually 0.94/0.94/0.90, 0.93/0.93/0.96. I was close!
I’ll have to write up a fanpost about this, but this is great news for Penn State. The margin between TT and PSU is miniscule – 0.009! About 1%!
The interesting thing about this is that Alabama and Texas Tech are tied in the statistical rankings. This means that if Alabama’s ranking moves up, Penn State could actually move above TT, because Alabama and Texas Tech swapping places wouldn’t change Penn State’s ranking, but would change Texas Tech’s.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Miami Here We Come
Lots of good stuff here as always and with the TT win last night Miami is within sight. Of the top two teams going into last night Alabama was the team in my mind that would suffer a loss before the end of the year. Now with Texas losing you have to think we’ll get up to the #2 spot at least and could be #1 by season’s end. TT will lose a game most likely at Oklahoma. Alabama will lose one maybe even two with LSU, Auburn and Florida in the SEC champ game.
Not looking ahead but does anybody know when they’ll announce the start time for the Michigan State game? I’m trying to plan my trip to the Valley accordingly.
by PSUROLLS on Nov 2, 2008 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PSU BCS #3
How could TTU jump from 7 to 2 with their schedule? I didn’t think one good win would make that much difference
Keep it in perspective
by JuniataMan on Nov 2, 2008 7:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Same as Penn State's jump
They had an undefeated record with no signature win. They now have one, and it’s better than ours. We had a similarly huge leap when we beat OSU. That win pins them as being “at least better than Texas,” which is much better than where they were before, “at least better than Nebraska or Kansas”.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bullshit
They’ve played two I-AA teams, and no BCS schools in the non-con. We beat OrSU. Big difference if u ask me.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Nov 2, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not arguing that TT should be ranked over Penn State. Just explaining the jump. A weak schedule undefeated team beating a high-ranked team is going to cause a large jump.
It’s just because a fair number of the statistical rankings use “undefeated algorithms” that pin teams at the lowest end of their possible rankings. Texas Tech’s just moved up massively, so they jump a lot.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there a breakdown
of how the writers are voting? Like are the Big10 writers holding out on us like in 1994?
by Joe 96alum on Nov 2, 2008 8:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Its Irrelevent
The writers don’t count in the BCS. We were #2 in both human polls. The computers clobbered us.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by fugimaster24 on Nov 2, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Same crap, different year...
The BCS is a joke.
"Red, it took me sixteen years to get here. You play me, and I'll give ya the best I got."
by Touchdown on Nov 2, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PSU could be stuck at 3
If Flo-rida beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats TTU both could jump us. We need MSU to be ranked high enough to help us out
Keep it in perspective
by JuniataMan on Nov 2, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't really work like that
Not likely. There’s still very, very strong resistance to ranking a one-loss team ahead of an undefeated team in the human polls. Plus, in the statistical polls, if you get Penn State, Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all wanting to be ranked somewhere in the Top 5, Penn State will come out very high in the wash.
Jeez, Penn State fans worry too much. If Texas Tech had a bye this week, Alabama beating LSU could cause Penn State to jump into second place in the BCS. That’s how close things are right now.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 2, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We're fine.
I’m not hurt by this. This is like somebody calling your mama a ho’. It’s insulting, but if you’re smart enough to stand back and let it ride, it means nothing. Let’s face it: Alabama is not that good. Who have they beat? Georgia is their only ranked win, and Georgia is lower than Ohio State, and the dawgs just got pummeled. I don’t think Florida is all that. I think they had revenge on their mind, which led to the lopsided win. Tech will lose, probably this week to Oklahoma State. The Raiders are okay, but their not an elite, blue blood school, and I feel they blew their wad last night. I think until everybody’s done patting them on the back and their done with enjoying it, it’s going to be too late. Ok. State only has one loss, so they’re not out of the picture yet. We’ll be fine. While I ain’t impressed with LSU, I look for them to beat "bama this week. I think we’ll be #1 this time next week.
by Ab4PSU on Nov 2, 2008 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I actually kind of like...
having a little chip on our shoulder going into our last big road game of the season.
This might be a great thing for us, since I think we need to not just win out, but put the SMACK DOWN on these last 3 teams.
"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees
by kajpsu on Nov 2, 2008 8:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I do, too!
I think that we always perform better whenever we’re underrated. How many years did we choke after being pre-season or early season #1? We just have to play hard, run the table, and let the other conferences have their melt downs. Sure, the lack of respect pisses me off, too, but we’ll prove them all wrong in the end!
For the glory
by Paige2PSU on Nov 2, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Broken Computers
How the F does one of the computers have Texas still ranked #1?!?!?!? TT is ranked #5 in that same computer. That calculation is either horribly flawed or someone forgot to enter this week’s results.
by JeremyInDC on Nov 2, 2008 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If I'm not mistaken
we jumped TT and BYU after the IL win. Both were idle and there was a big shake out with, I believe, 4 teams ranked above us losing (I believe this was the FL loss to Ole Miss). Instead of jumping 4 places (due to the losses) we jumped 6 over top of the those two that were idle. At the time I thought that didn’t really seem right, but the PSU-IL game had a lot of hype and we had a statement game, so I thought it was understandable.
So I feel similar with the TT jump. I have to agree with the concensus here that if we win out we play for a championship. Even a lot of pundits think so. PSU vs FL is the current “bowl projection” at msnbc.com. Previous projections had PSU vs USC and PSU vs TX. As time has gone, we’ve actually been a consistent (read 2 or 3 times) prediction for that game, while our predicted opponent has been a little fluid. Also, on “The BCS Show” (or whatever the hell it’s called . . . first time I ever watched it), Gary Barnett also was saying he thinks it’ll be PSU-FL. FL concerns me a little more than AL, TT or (when it looked like a greater possibility) TX, but there’s something about this years version of the Nittany Lions that just keeps you believing that they’re not going to be stopped. We partially control, partially have to hope for some luck, but this team just seems like a date with destiny was pre-arranged somewhere around the WI game.
"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"
by nitwit86 on Nov 2, 2008 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This was pre-arranged the minute Arkansas State went off the schedule
and Oregon State came on. And who did the Beavers beat (rhetorical question; we all know the answer!)? This is more than a coincidence to me. I’m the passionate and exciteable type, but I’ve been fairly calm about all this this year (including going into our road games). I’m with you. I just have a feeling this is our year, and that somehow, someway, it’s all going to pan out. If we’re still #3 going into conference championship games, then I’ll probably be pissing myself. As I said earlier, I think we’ll be #1 this time next week.
by Ab4PSU on Nov 2, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jon Wilner, confused voter
He voted Florida #1 and Texas #2
http://pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?s=5&p=9&t1=79&t2=0&v=35&w=11&r=V
to bad this site only shows the AP voters.
by jebatzel on Nov 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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