The Case for the One-loss Teams
by Cpiritual27 on Nov 23, 2008 1:45 PM EST
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PrintRankings used from the AP Poll:
1) Florida Gators
Wins over ranked teams: #13 UGA (49-10, away)
Loss: #25 Ole Miss (30-31, home)
2) Oklahoma Sooners
Wins over ranked teams: #7 Texas Tech (65-21, home), #16 Cincy (52-26, home)
Loss: #5 Texas (35-45, neutral site)
3) Texas Longhorns
Wins over ranked teams: #3 OU (45-35, neutral site), #11 OK State (28-24, home), #12 Mizzou (56-31, home)
Loss: #7 Texas Tech (33-39, away)
4) USC Trojans
Wins over ranked teams: #10 Ohio State (35-3, home), #19 Oregon (44-10, home)
Loss: #17 Oregon State (21-27, away)
5) Penn State Nittany Lions
Wins over ranked teams: #10 Ohio State (13-6, away), #17 Oregon State (45-14, home), #22 Michigan State (49-18, home)
Loss: #28 Iowa (23-24, away)
6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
Wins over ranked teams: #4 Texas (39-33, home), #11 OK State (56-20, home)
Loss: #3 OU (21-65, away)
Resume Rankings:
Taking into account the number of wins over ranked teams (and how highly ranked they are), while also factoring in the location of the game and margin of victory, here's what I come up with.
1) Texas
2) PSU
3) Texas Tech
4) OU
5) USC
6) UF
Only Texas and PSU have three wins over ranked teams, two of which were very convincing. Tech has two quality wins, which in my opinion are better than OU's and USC's. UF has one big road win...and nothing else.
Ranking the losses:
Basically the same criteria as above.
1) OU
2) Texas
3) USC
4) PSU
5) UF
6) Texas Tech
OU has the most forgivable loss, followed by UT who lost on the road to the #7 team. USC and PSU also lost on the road, but USC lost to the better team. UF lost at home, pushing them back to #5, and TTU lost by 54 points...need I say more?
Assigning points on the basis 6 points for #1 (5 for #2, 4 for #3, etc) and so on, and then adding the points for both categories, here are what the rankings SHOULD be:
1) Texas - 11 points
2) OU - 9 points
3) PSU - 8 points
4) USC - 6 points
5) Texas Tech - 5 points
6) Florida - 3 points
Compare this to what they currently are (following #1 'Bama):
1) Florida
2) OU
3) Texas
4) USC
5) PSU
6) Texas Tech
So what can we conclude? The voters need to pull their heads out of their asses and stop ranking according to "when you lose." As for as I'm concerned, "when you lose" is a lot less important than who you beat and who you lose to, but I guess that's just me.
I mean, am I the only one who fails to believe the best two teams in the country are from the SEC?
Thoughts?
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Preseason rankings dictate the final rankings
Unfortunately it doesn’t matter AT ALL what a team is ranked at the end of the season when considering who you beat. That win against Oregon State looks better every week, but it doesn’t matter. They weren’t supposed to be good, they weren’t ranked when we played them, and we gained nothing from that win in our ranking.
Meanwhile Florida beat LSU, but they were “supposed” to be good. They got huge boosts in their rankings from that win. Florida jumped 7 spots for beating LSU, who’s now 7-4. They jumped Ohio State, undefeated Texas Tech, and USC by beating a team that barely won at home to Troy and then got thumped at home by Mississippi.
This is the problem with the BCS: preseason polls. Eliminate the Preseason polls, don’t allow voting until after week 3.
I agree 100%....
PSU’s resume looks better each week. The ESSSSS EEEEEEEEE SEEEEEEE is so overrated right now.
It is going to hurt, but we really have to root for Florida State against Florida.
FSU beats Florida—-knocks Florida out
Florida whoops Alabama—-knocks Alabama out
Oregon State beats Oregon, wins Pac-10—-knocks USC out
OK State beats OU—-knocks OU out
This should put PSU at #2 and we play Texas in the National Championship game.
It is still possible.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
Bizzare logic on Oregon State and USC
I hate having to say this so many times in so many different places, but Oregon State cannot keep USC from winning at least a share of the Pac 10 title unless UCLA upsets USC. Oregon State wins hurt USC’s Rose Bowl chances, but if they do anything to their BCS title game chances, they help (because they make the Oregon State loss look less bad).
See 2002, when Iowa and Ohio State were Big Ten co-champs (and didn’t play each other), and Big Ten rules would normally have sent Iowa to the Rose Bowl (to play Pac 10 co-champ and Rose Bowl tiebreaker owner Washington State). Ohio State went to the BCS title game, and an obscure BCS rule at the time allowed the Orange to take Iowa to play Pac 10 co-champ USC.
Your scenario would almost certainly lead to a USC-Texas title game.
Correct
The above scenario would almost certainly lead to a Texas-USC championship. You’d have to add USC losing to Notre Dame or UCLA to the requirements for PSU to make it to the championship (or have Texas lose to Texas A&M instead).
“Your scenario would almost certainly lead to a USC-Texas title game.”
Doubtful. Alabama, Texas/Texas Tech (not sure who wins the tiebreakers for the Big 12 championship), and Utah would be stronger contenders. Alabama would have 1 loss to a 2-loss team. The Big 12 champion would have 1 loss to a 2 loss team. Utah would be undefeated.
USC would have 1 loss to a 3-loss team, and we would have 1 loss to a 4-loss team.
by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 24, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a rule..
that you have to be a conf champion to be in the Nat Champ game? If not, USC would get it over us. Them being ranked ahead of us is the biggest crock right now. There is no reason other than the media & coaches have a love affair with the “greatest team in the history of everything”. A case can be made for USC, not the other teams.
Championship
There’s no rule that you have to be a conference championship to go to the BCS championship game, but that’s not relevant in this case anyway — if both USC and Oregon State win out, they are co-champions of the Pac-10 for 2008 (it’s just that Oregon State gets the automatic BCS bid based on their head to head).
There is no rule...
…but I just don’t think it is right that you are the second best team in your conference and yet you play for the MNC.
It has backfired twice in the past…I believe Nebraska one year and Oklahoma got in after losing the Big 12 Champ game. Both Nebraska and Oklahoma got embarrassed in the Nat Champ game those years.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
I think you should give bonus points
to the teams that won OOC games against ranked opponents.
Potentially Oklahoma and PSU will have wins over other BCS conference champions! that should be worth alot.
WE ARE.......PENN STATE!
Hey, you've got me believing and I like your points concerning OOC opponents
Also, I totally agree with millzners in that the preseason rankings are horseshit. That is all…
If you can smile when things go wrong, you have someone in mind to blame.
by TheMightyErik on Nov 23, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but...
…the SEC was SUPPOSED to be a good conference this year.
Other than potential BCS chaos, the giant elephant in the room right now is the fact that even with all that Southern Speed, the SEC is incredibly mediocre right now. Lamentably, this will not get acknowledged because it would go against the grain, and more importantly, people would have to admit they were wrong.
So even though the resumes speak for themselves, somehow we’re left with two SEC teams at the top. ’Bama? Sure. But UF over all those other teams, including all the one-loss BXII teams? Highly debatable…
"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."
-Tony Hunt
he doesn't
he has OU at #2 and Texas Tech at #5
by The JuggerNitt on Nov 23, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
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