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Oregon State In The BCS: A Lot Of Different Parties Involved, Man

Civil_war317_medium

Now that Paterno's BCS fate has been jinx-proofed via a Big Ten Championship, it's time to take a look at what others have to do with Penn State's eventual situation.

So what are we to do, as Penn State fans, about this unexpected third party interest?  The Civil War is set for Saturday (7:00 pm EST on everyone's favorite second rate sports network: Versus).  So after I take down my fifth plate of Thanksgiving leftovers, these are the things that will be running through my head before the game.

A shot at USC would be fun.  Yes, playing USC in LA has it's downside.  They are essentially at home.  They are incredibly comfortable playing there (they've been to the game four times in the last five years, plus the "road games" they play in the Rose Bowl against UCLA).  They almost always perform up to their talent level in big games and, as you might have heard, they are incredibly talented.

Still, there is definitely something to gain.  Where Ohio State failed miserably, Penn State can succeed.  They can make people question the structure of the Big Ten and further drive home the differences between the Big Ten Champion and their co-champion impostor.

Rematches are less fun.  Especially when the team you root for completely dominated the first version of the series.

Eyetvsnapshot_18__medium

 

Star-divide

From a public perception standpoint, Penn State has absolutely nothing to gain here.  From a fan's standpoint, this takes away significantly from the thought of winning the Rose Bowl...if we win.  If not, or even if it ends as a close victory for Penn State, it will be completely unsatisfying for all of the obvious reasons.  Losing to a very talented team isn't a shameful experience...it comes with the territory.  Losing to a team you beat just months prior is sour.

Rooting for the less-often-successful is more fun.  Let's be honest: everyone is tired of USC.  They have been the undisputed (as in best record plus winning all the head-to-head "tie-breakers") champion of the Pacific-10 conference for five straight years now and it would be nice to see someone break that streak.  I like the under dog story and even more so when it includes a team that isn't usually in the mix.

Plus, who can forget this?

 

The Big Ten could use a good bowl record.  Count me in as one of the people who completely underestimated the power of group think.  I gave the voters a lot more credit than they deserved: I assumed they would not buy in so completely to the Big Ten hate and actually evaluate the teams at the top on their individual merit.  This did not happen.  One loss teams were getting first place votes over an undefeated Penn State and there was increased momentum to actually jump them over a potential 12-0 Paterno team on a consolidated basis.

Oregon State in the Rose Bowl means USC as an at-large.  They would be getting the last spot available, leaving two loss, second place Ohio State "screwed" and facing an SEC school in the Capital One Bowl.  This also bumps everyone else down, turning a lot of match-ups in which the Big Ten team would be dogs into matchups where the teams are closer to equals.  The Big Ten already has what is probably the toughest (although best paying) tie-ins of any conference.  On top of that, the Big Ten has sent more teams to the BCS over the past five years than any other conference.  This has negative effects on the conference's recent bowl record.  As much as I even hate the conference discussion, it was actually affecting the voting in unprecedented ways and needs to be curbed.  Winning bowl games would be a good way of achieving this.

I haven't given up my hope for the improbable.  I think "not quite impossible" is probably a better description, but regardless: USC failing to win the Pac-10 could potentially increase the chances of Penn State climbing back into the MNC game.  It would take a long string of football related events plus some interesting public perception swings, but the list of Things That Need To Happen includes a scenario in which Penn State can get in front of USC.  A loss for the Trojans seems highly unlikely; Notre Dame is dead in the water and UCLA, at 4-6, is probably a similar underdog.

The most likely method to madness: Florida would have to lose to FSU and then somehow beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game; Oklahoma State would have to knock off Oklahoma, putting Texas Tech in the CCG; Missouri would probably then need to beat the Red Raiders.  That still leaves Texas and USC ranked ahead of Penn State, but the fact that Penn State actually can call themselves a conference champion, while the other two cannot, might help make them one of the two teams left in the mix.  Or it might not, but I'm sayin' there's a chance.

...

So what does it all mean?  Well, to be straight with you, I still haven't made up my mind.  Oregon State is a good story and I would like to see them earn a spot in the Rose Bowl.  I'm tired of USC, but it would make the actual game a lot more fun and has tremendous up-side, something a rematch lacks.  But would the chance of a possible rematch deter me from giving up MCN hope?  Well even if USC did "lose" there is no telling what kind of mood the voters would be in anyway; probably one we would perceive as bad.

This is a very complicated case...a lotta ins, a lotta outs, a lotta what-have-yous.

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Something I think that gets lost in the rematch talk...

The PSU players would not lack in motivation for this game…Remember the cheap shot Jerome Hayes took late in that game? I think the defense, and for that matter the whole team would like an opportunity to embarass the Beavers if the chance was given, not to mention a strong showing could lead to a potential number 2 or 3 ranking…

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Nov 25, 2008 9:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

No way PSU gets picked over USC

If all of the things you say occur, I still don’t think the robots or the voters will pick PSU. Too much headwind.

1) The Ohio $tate choke factor = this paints the Big Ten with the same brush.

2) I can make a lot of justifiable commentary on why Iowa was not a bad loss, but it remains that USC lost to the Pac-10 champion, while PSU lost to the 4th or 5th best team in the Big Ten.

3) USC lost way back in September. PSU lost this month. People have short-term memories.

On a positive note, a medicore UCLA team has defeated an untouchable USC squad before.

As for the Hayes thing, I think that Oregon State could look at the perceived slight on the Boone fake-but-not-fake punt and get keyed up as well.

by Cairo on Nov 25, 2008 9:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Teams need to get over themselves

It’s the same thing from MSU. If you are getting killed, and there is still an entire quarter left to play, don’t get all pissy when the team you are playing continues to, you know, play football.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 9:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am an Offensive coordinator on the high school level...

and while I won’t intentionally run up the score, I also don’t call off the dogs…my ass has been beat down too many times to take pity on someone else. You get paid to stop me, I get paid to score on you. It is not my fault your gameplan sucked….

But running up the score and some 2nd string bum, whose team is down by thirty, taking out a player with a cheap shot is another story all together…One is dirty, one is football…you don’t need me to tell you what is what…No doubt Oregon State will try and use stuff as motivation, I have never once doubted that, but when a popular, and likable player on YOUR team gets taken out on a cheap hit, you as his friend and teammate want to kick someones ass in retribution. I feel that is what the lions will do.

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Nov 25, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just kinda wish Chris Baker was around...

I mean he would sneak a crowbar out there under his pads and go all tonya harding on someones knees…

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Nov 25, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Besides.

What was up with going for 2 late in the 4th quarter anyways? I thought that was a bit pissy too.

MSU meltdown by the players and coach? As I said, it was nice to see John L. Smith coach MSU again.

by Cairo on Nov 25, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What did MSU expect us to do?

Punt back to them on 1st down? Run up the middle 3 times then punt back to them? For an entire quarter?
And once I saw Devlin on the field, I knew he was going to throw something long to show that the kid on the bench has what it takes to be the starter.

Now maybe our fake rivalry can actually become a real one.

by NJ lion on Nov 25, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Devlin

It’s not like they can say we kept our starters in late, they couldn’t stop our 2nd string! We had our 3rd string in and they were still close to getting the 1st down. If you can’t pull it together and play football for 4 quarters, don’t whine and cry when the other team does. MSU = sniveling 2-year-olds

by millzners on Nov 25, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've said it before and I'll say it again

I hate Michigan State.

We just needed a couple players, a couple people to buy in to the fact and we were able to do it. --A.Q. Shipley

by psu on Nov 25, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

we probably won't jump USC

but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t. Again, that’s the problem with polls and poll momentum.

Factors for Penn State: BCS conference champion (with tiebreaker). beat both the OSU’s (and by an average of 6 points better than USC). Beat O$U in Columbus against Pryor and Beanie. Blew out every team they played (including a 1-AA team and one of the worst teams in 1-A) except 2 teams with top 10 scoring defenses (lost to one of them). Lost to 8-4 Iowa at Iowa in the cold and wind late in the season. Started low in the polls. They have JoePa, which the coaches love, and media loves the story, but they are Penn State who the media screws (the media screws everyone’s favorite team…except for USC :-P )

Factors for USC: they are USC, and the media loves them. Started high in the polls. Beat O$U at home. Lost to 8-3OrSt in Corvalis. 6 points worse per game than Penn State. Blew out every team they played, including 2 of the worst teams in 1-A. Lost earlier in the season. And again, since it is the most important factor it get’s listed twice: they are USC and the media loves them

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 10:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's imprortant...

to note that PSU and USC played two very different OSU teams…besides the fact that one was at home and the other on the road.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not sure which OSU team you are referring to

because in USC’s defense, the OrSt team they played seemed to have come together after they had played us. tOSU obviously had Beanie and Pryor against us (which I tried to point out)

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ohio State - Wells/Pryor, etc.

You could argue Or State was different with a much improved rushing attack, but I wouldn’t buy it. Those games were 19 days apart.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not only does the media love USC

They fluff them by fluffing their opponents.

“Oregon St was not the same team that lost to PSU”

“Arizona is a high powered offense”

“A vastly improved Standford team under Harbaugh”

On and on. Another thing to remember, a lot of USC alums work in broadcasting. Not the ones commenting on TV, but the ones editing and producing. The ones you don’t see.

by Mr. Rosewater on Nov 25, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Championship game

The fact that Texas Tech (and Utah for that matter) stayed ahead of us in the BCS this week sort of took out any hope I had left to get to the title game. Unless of course the human voters create some separation for us.

The computer polls are awful by the way.

by speedomike on Nov 25, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sagarin!

Has Alabama at #6? TCU at #9?

(James Madison at #33?)

by Run Up The Score on Nov 25, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Computers

are good for some things. One of those things is that they help evaluate teams that people didn’t get to watch play. But they also suck at a lot of things and have plenty of downfalls, especially when certain things happen (as BBnW points out, undefeated teams, or teams who have only lost to each other, like the Big 12 south. Also the disconnectedness of many of the teams leading to James Madison’s ranking)

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 10:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His formula is all screwed up

He also has the ACC rated as the very best conference.

Those numbers are his “true” ranking, though, not the one he gives to the BCS.

In that it is all Big XII despite none of those top teams having a major win of a decent program (Cincinatti is probably the best win between the four of them). Texas, TT, OU and Ok St are 1, 2, 4 and 6, respectively.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am not sold at all on the Big XII

like you said their level of “credibility” is based upon, Missou beating a “WEAK” Illinios team, and their inconference play against each other.

PLUS the big ten gets knocked for the poor play of OSU, but why don’t the pundits bring up the shoddy showings of Oklahoma in the past 8 years in the BCS…they are the buffalo bills of the BCS…the big XII doesn’t get knocked for that! They lost to Boise State for pete’s sake.

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Nov 25, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

And in his ‘PREDICTOR’, which I believe is (and someone correct me if I’m wrong) a true power ranking that uses all available data, Penn State is #3 behind USC and Florida.

I’d love to hear an interview with Sagarin explaining why all three of his lists are all over the place. I’ve always liked his rankings the best, but they seem to be having a tough time this season.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So his “untrue” rankings are the ones that are more in line with public perception and the rest of the retarded voters. Hilarious. I really hope you guys play USC (for non-tOSU BCS reasons), a lot of good can come from that game for the big ten.

http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com

by HolyBuckeye on Nov 25, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Utah is the only team ahead of us that can't lose.

For “it” to work – a nearly insurmountable number of “things” have to happen – not the least of which involves bobby bowden. Penn State would have to have a major jump in the human polls.

BUT – regarding the Rose Bowl – while most do see playing Ore State as a lose/lose situation for Penn State (similar to ’05) – one good result would be keeping the (other) osu out of a BCS game.

by PSUgirl on Nov 25, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

madness

you can root for texas A&M over texas, then that leaves utah 12-0, florida (SEC champs) 11-2 and PSU (b10 champs) 11-1 and that is where the mystery would be. Would utah make it at that point over UF and PSU? if not we are in, understanding the laundry list of upsets that need to happen.

by NYC nittany lion on Nov 25, 2008 12:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think

in order for us to Surpass Utah, voters would have to start putting 2-loss teams ahead of them. No matter what Utah will stay ahead of us in the computers, we need more separation in the human polls,

by whiteoutonly on Nov 25, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not exactly

What we’d really need to do is lessen the gap between PSU and Utah in the computer polls. For example, Florida is in between the two of us in every computer poll (except one where Florida is below us) — if they lose to Florida State, it would help our computer ranking but not make a difference to Utah’s. That one thing alone could eliminate the gap and cause us to vaunt the Utes.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 25, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

on top of that, if the teams 1-5 start losing, is possible (probable, even), that PSU will continue to rise while Utah says put. This helps, obviously. Hooray glass ceilings!

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This would mean

as I said initially that voters would put 2 loss teams (with the exception of Bama) ahead of Utah.

by whiteoutonly on Nov 25, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True

But Florida State beating Florida would like put us at #5 in both human polls, with Utah #6, and us #6 in the computers with Utah staying at #5. I assume that’d mean we jump them in the BCS.

This weekend really needs to be the ultimate in “throw the records out the window when these two rivals play”.

by speedomike on Nov 26, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But what if...

What happens if OrSU loses the Civil War, a couple of higher-ranked teams lose, and U$C ends up in the BCSC Game? People seem to think it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll get either SC or OrSU in the Rose Bowl, but I see us against an at-large in the Rose as a much more likely scenario than us in the BCSC Game…

There is a tractor in the parking lot, West Virginia license EIEIO. Your lights are on.

by leeharvey418 on Nov 25, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Rose bowl is committed to a Big 10 vs Pac 10 matchup

Last year tOSU played for the National Championship and the rose bowl took the number 2 Big Ten school Illinois. I would expect them to do the same with the Pac 10 if USC were playing for the NC.

by ageing lion on Nov 25, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

they would like to, but

In the above scenario (Oregon State loses the Civil War and USC plays in the NC game), Oregon would be the Pac-10 #2. To be selected as an at large, they would have to have a BCS ranking of 14 or higher (Illinois was 13 last year), as well as have 9 wins, which they would get with 1 more. Right now Oregon is at 23 in the BCS, and the computers hate them. A win over Oregon State may not get them as high as they need to be. The Rose Bowl would then have to select a different at large.

by pjk on Nov 25, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

also

if OrSt wins their next game they’re Pac-10 champs anyway, and go to the Rose Bowl. If they lose, then they wouldn’t meet the requirements.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, the NC game is long gone

The National Championship game is long gone – for both USC and us. USC has a loss to a 3-loss team. We have a loss to a 4-loss team.

Even if Alabama loses, and Florida loses to FSU, Alabama’s loss will be to a 2-loss team still in the top 10. Texas’s only loss will be to a 1-loss Texas Tech in the Top 10. Texas Tech’s only loss will be to a 2-loss Oklahoma in the Top 10. And you’ve still got Utah with no losses.

You simply can’t argue USC or Penn State over any of them. Utah actually bothers me, because it really looks like Penn State’s better than them based on common performances against Michigan and Oregon State, but, well, Utah’s played plenty of teams at Iowa’s level, and didn’t lose. So, yeah. That sucks.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 25, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tell it to the voters

The simple fact is that when human polls count for 2/3 of the BSC, you can’t count out any team that receives the amount of stroking that USC does. The fact that they’re even in the top 10 after the schedule they have played (and it ain’t getting any better down the stretch) proves the adage that you should never underestimate the power of stupid people (i.e., poll voters) in large groups.

There is a tractor in the parking lot, West Virginia license EIEIO. Your lights are on.

by leeharvey418 on Nov 25, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that's why we also have to root for Auburn to beat Alabama ;-)

the Utah thing could work its way out if the humans manipulate the polls enough (I actually wouldn’t mind if Utah went instead of us, just because they are undefeated, and I think they have as much, or more claim, than any other team in the country right now. Sure they may be worse, but based on performance this year they haven’t been beaten. Who’s to say that they wouldn’t beat any BCS team they played (sure, they likely wouldn’t beat most any of the top 10 teams…but still, maybe they would).

I guess that’s why we need all the Big 12 teams to lose, also :-D (and USC to lose).

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Auburn

A&M, Baylor, fsu, Ok State and nd – this week – and if any of it “happens” then…
Missouri, fl and Ucla next week.

I’m not saying that any of it will or has any chance of happening – but there will be a lot of “ticker watching” going on this week.

by PSUgirl on Nov 26, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i just wish....

we beat Iowa like we should’ve, then we wouldn’t have to do all this bitching…..instead we could be preparing for the NC game.

this sucks….

"We are Penn State. We are not normal. We are Legends." - Deon Butler

by Stately NOVA Lion on Nov 25, 2008 1:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It would be so cool

if somehow we went to the NC game, and the Rose Bowl got OSU vs. OrSU. Not only are we in the ‘ship, but has any team ever beaten BOTH Rose Bowl teams in the same year? I’m not expecting it, just wondering…

by pjk on Nov 25, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I have recently changed my mind: GO BEAVERS!!@#!@

Playing Oregon State would be good, the Hayes thing still burns me up and you can’t overvalue a BCS win. The voter’s memories are short, and they are very quick to forget who played who in the regular season. A win against a PAC-10 champion in the Rose Bowl looks good, and will benefit future seasons rankings.

Meanwhile Ohio State does NOT, I repeat NOT deserve a BCS bid. I have a growing hatred of the Buckeyes now that we’re competative with them. I can’t stand they get to share our title. I couldn’t stand watching them get to go to a ‘better’ BCS game then us as if they needed another reason to believe they are superior. I want Ohio State to go to the Cap One bowl, play Georgia, and get absolutely dismantled.

Finally, I would like to see the Big Ten conference take a step back, give up a BCS bid, allow PSU to totally represent the conference in the biggest game available to us. Let people see that PSU is the best team, and Ohio State is a distant 2nd. This is a year when our conf. is down, and our team stepped up to represent it nationally — let’s make the BCS series representative of that truth.

by millzners on Nov 25, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hah

well according to everyone else, our out of conference schedule only included coastal carolina, temple and syracuse… cuz we are weak and all…

by VelezPSU on Nov 25, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hey

the orange beat the irish – they must be an elite squad.

by PSUgirl on Nov 26, 2008 10:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Psu Need OSU

If OSU is a distant second than Psu should have blown them out. Psu will only go as far as the big ten reputation will let it. Hate to use the SEC excuse, but the better OSU looks the better Psu looks.

by keppner on Nov 25, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

why is this an SEC "excuse"

It’s an old rule from the Independent “Beast of the East” years. You always root for your opponents (except for game day, oc) – and anyone who plays pitt – for me, though, fsu is the new pitt.

by PSUgirl on Nov 26, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If I'm not mistaken

BCS rankings are the tiebreaker in the Big XII, so Texas would go to the CCG, right? Or am I confused…

John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Nov 25, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Big 12

Only if all of Oklahoma, Texas and texas end up with 7-1/11-1 records. If (say) Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, then it goes back to the 2 team tie-breaker (head to head) and Texas Tech — despite a lower ranking — goes to the Big 12 champinship over Texas. That would leave an 11-1 Texas team quite possibly in line for the BCS championship without being the champ of their own conference.

Unless Texas loses to Texas A&M or Texas Tech loses to Baylor (both extremely unlikely), it’s tough to picture the BCS championship without a Big 12 team.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 25, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think there are a couple other things to consider.

Texas is ahead in the BCS because of the computers. OU is ahead 3-4 and 2-4 in the human polls. Getting a very highly (computer) ranked Ok State will help their average, while Texas playing A&M will hurt them. You also have all kinds of crap that could go down after this week if the voters really want one team or another in the CCG. Remember is was writers from Texas that were screwing around a couple of years ago to get the Longhorns into the BCS (which led to the AP pulling out of the BCS).

Then, on top of all this, a Missu win in the CCG really screws things up, because you are going to have to justify a one loss team that didn’t even win their division getting a shot instead of a one loss conf champ in Penn State.

It could get fun, that’s all I’m saying.

by Kevin HD on Nov 25, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but what you forget

is that any division from the OMG ESS EEE CEE or Big XII is far superior to the Big 10, therefore any team from those divisions/conferences is better than Penn State.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 25, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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