One step closer to BCS #2...

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 3, 2008 3:06 PM EST

BCS Standings, Week 1, Penn State distance from #2: 0.0821

BCS Standings, Week 2, Penn State distance from #2: 0.0242

BCS Standings, Week 3, Penn State distance from #2: 0.0086

Notice a pattern yet? One thing to note is that our former opponents have resume-builders next week, believe it or not: Illinois vs. Western Michigan (!!), and Ohio State vs. Northwestern. Iowa's also not a terrible team, and so it's entirely possible that we might jump Texas in a few of the statistical rankings. I don't think it's likely that a Texas Tech victory over Oklahoma State will leap them much higher, since the gulf is pretty large between them and the team directly above them in the rankings (except in Sagarin, where they're on top already, thanks to iterative convergence).

Which means even with Alabama winning, and Texas Tech winning, Penn State could still end up #2 in the BCS. That would make people in the media go "huh?" - but, of course, the BCS isn't supposed to be a poll, but an aggregate of polls. So weird stuff like that can happen.

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BBW

You make me feel safe. Not in a gay way but…ok! Good post.

by jimbo2psu on Nov 3, 2008 4:00 PM EST reply actions

My master plan...

to have Penn State jump Alabama is still in play, and Florida crushing Georgia had to be a boost in the human polls as well.

To recap, it was:
Florida beats Georgia
Georgia Tech beats Georgia
Florida State beats Florida
Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship
plus maybe LSU losing if pollsters don’t figure out that LSU has done nothing, and obviously Penn State’s opponents winning out except losses to PSU.

The FSU loss would be one of those things, especially in the human polls, that produces a much larger downward jump than it should, because people will remember the Ole Miss loss.

Really, the huge thing for Penn State still is Oregon State. That 2 point win over Arizona State did not fill me with confidence, but hey, Optimism.

But still, again: losses by the top 5 can only help Penn State. Poll inertia will keep us at #2 so long as we look good, and then it’s just a matter of time before the closeness of all of the statistical polls wash out Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, etc.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 3, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Strength of schedule

Assuming that we win our next three games, doesnt our strength of schedule HAVE TO GO UP???

Our 3 remaining games are against opponents that are ranked higher than the teams we beat to begin the season, (Coastal carolina, syracuse, temple) therefore shouldnt our strength of schedule continue to go up, and our computer ranking with it?

by JoePaPa on Nov 3, 2008 5:30 PM EST reply actions

Yup

although I wouldn’t give Indiana that much credit. Bastards needed to beat Central Michigan, dangit.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 3, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions

Arkansas State

Well, Alabama should have suffered more for playing Arkansas State this late, even though they won 35-0. They should have played them early on. TT should be 1, and PSU 2.

by PABroncofan on Nov 3, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions

Schedule of game?

What does it matter when you play a game?

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 4, 2008 8:37 AM EST up reply actions

Take Florida for example...

They lost to Ole Miss early in the season. They can still win out and possible go to the NCG. If they lose that same game in the last week of the season, they’re done.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Nov 4, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions

Hardly

If Florida was the lone unbeaten in the country and had a hefty lead over the #3 team, a loss late wouldn’t kill them at all.

As it is now, if Florida wins out, Texas Tech wins out, and Penn State wins out, Florida will likely be out of the championship game based on that loss.

You’re thinking about that game too much in isolation. The reason Florida’s in the national championship game hunt is because people are presuming that there will only be one unbeaten left in the country, and therefore a slot for a 1-loss team.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 4, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

IF TTU beats Okie St...

I’d be surprised if the human polls weren’t swayed. Unless, of course, we beat Iowa by 50.

That would hurt our BCS #2 aspirations, wouldn’t it?

by Kunk on Nov 4, 2008 9:38 AM EST reply actions

Texas Tech

If Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State, I’m sure that will push us further back in the BCS rankings (i.e. the gap would widen ebtween then at #2 and us at #3). And it’s not surprising really. We need a Texas Tech or Alabama loss to get to #2. That’s just it. If they both win out, nothing we do is going to get us to the BCS championship.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 4, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Sigh

I don’t agree. Texas Tech won’t move up much in the human polls, as they’re up against a firewall of unbeatens. In statistical polls, Penn State’s place is not pinned by Texas Tech’s position – it’s pinned by Texas’s position, and Texas plays Baylor and we play Iowa.

The BCS is not nearly as simple as you think.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 4, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

Texas Tech

You don’t think Texas Tech won’t gain votes on PSU in the human polls if they beat Oklahoma State and then go to Norman to beat Oklahoma? Really? Right now, I think there is still a bit of “convince me” WRT Texas Tech because they needed a last second win at home to beat Texas. But run the gauntlet and go undefeated and they’ll pass us in the minds of many voters.

I agree that we’ll gain in the computer polls as we play Iowa and MSU and will be able to pass Texas. I don’t see us passing Alabama or Texas Tech in those if we all win out and then it comes down to whether the humans will keep us above a TT team that would beat 2 more top 10 teams and win a Big 12 championship. They won’t. I don’t think the JoePa factor can keep us above that schedule.

We need Tech or Bama to lose. I don’t see any other way.

by Laaaaazzz on Nov 4, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

You don’t think Texas Tech won’t gain votes on PSU in the human polls if they beat Oklahoma State and then go to Norman to beat Oklahoma?

No, I really don’t. Texas Tech will in the statistical polls though, and that’ll be enough to put us back at #3, unless my “Alabama strategy” continues to work out. The Georgia Tech/Florida State games are just huge.

The voters who have Texas Tech #3 won’t move them higher unless it’s an absolute blowout vs. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Why would they? They’ve already got a decent idea of where they think Texas Tech is : better than Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. That’s why they put them there. Winning there wouldn’t do anything except confirm to the voters that they put them in the right spot.

Human polls vote predictively. Statistical polls rank by resume.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 5, 2008 1:34 AM EST up reply actions

Obviously, they can't move up much...

But they can certainly swap places with PSU with an impressive victory, no?

Then even if we pass Texas in the computers (which seems likely), the separation between 2 and 3 still grows.

I do agree that I am oversimplifying things but it’s my gut instinct that the human voters will look much more favorably on Texas Tech wins than PSU wins in the coming weeks.

I’ve been wrong before, so I’m not saying it’s a lock or anything. Just my feeling.

by Kunk on Nov 4, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions

Poll inertia

I will admit, I’m counting on human poll inertia when I say that voters won’t swap Texas Tech/Penn State in their ballots. To be honest, there’s no real reason: most humans right now should have formed their opinions regarding Penn State and Texas Tech. A Texas Tech victory over Oklahoma State shouldn’t change that.

If you assume that the human polls stay mostly the same, then Texas Tech winning won’t budge them much in the statistical polls at all. In the ones where they’re #1, they’ll stay #1. In the ones where they’re lower, they’ll likely stay there, because the margin between them and the higher team is pretty large.

So Texas Tech will stay mostly the same. Penn State, however, could swap with Texas. This boosts us, not touching Texas Tech at all, which would result in us passing Texas Tech.

Seriously, the BCS is way close right now with #2/#3. If Alabama had played LSU this week instead of Arkansas, Penn State would be #2, and I am absolutely serious.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Nov 4, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions