Royster Not Meeting Heisman Quota
by KevinHD on Nov 4, 2008 9:45 AM EST
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This is not a post about how Evan Royster should be a Heisman winner. It is a post about why he shouldn't care about whether he is a Heisman winner or not.
A while back Penn State's QB offered up the following as food for thought:
"If you want to talk Heisman and you want to talk running backs, Royster should be one of the top names, no question," Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark said.
Adam Rittenberg goes on in that piece to explain that (in so many words) Royster doesn't really have a shot because he simply doesn't get enough carries. The thing is he's right, and that is why it's such a stupid award.
A quick look at Rivals' power rankings and you'll see Royster is sitting behind three different backs from his own conference: Shonn Greene (#4), Chris Wells (#6), and Javon Ringer (#7).
Some stats:
So I think it's pretty clear what the story is here. Penn State's tailback is getting by far the fewest carries per game, yet putting up very impressive yardage and a ridiculous ypc average.
Now this isn't an attempt to take anything away from these four runningbacks, as Paterno would say they are all pretty good football players. What we are getting at is how to judge performance.
The one thing I love about baseball is the way you can isolate statistics and get a true gauge on what the real story is. I hate football stats for their lack of this characteristic. No sport is as dependent on a "team effort" as football. The backs can't run without a great line, the quarterback can't pass without an honest run threat, the receivers can't catch balls unless they are thrown properly, and an offense can't win games unless the defense stops the other team from scoring. Despite all of this, a player cannot even be considered for the award unless his team is elite, which, to be honest, makes it a lot harder to tell if the ‘stars' are actually that good or simply a product of a great situation.
That being said, I think all four of these backs are very good at what they do, and Royster's ability to turn three yard gains into 7.4 yard gains is pretty impressive. He lacks the carries because of Green's involvement in the offense, and doesn't score as many TD's because of the effectiveness of the 230 lb QB sneak. It's because this is such a great team that Royster has no shot. Because of this, it's important to not let the description of the Heisman fool you into thinking it's a real award.
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I think Royster and Clark and everyone else on the team
would rather win a National Championship than a Heisman.
There’s no parade for a Heisman winner.
While there is a trophy, your buddies don’t wear the same ring as you.
There is no 5, 10, 20, 30 yr reunions for Heisman trophy campaigns.
Your Heisman year isn’t put on the side of the stadium.
There is no Heisman banner in the weight room.
And when you get together with your teammates down the road, you don’t retell stories from your Heisman campaign.
by PSU Mudder on Nov 4, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
and you get to vote
so Tebow, if he wants, can vote for himself this year.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Overrated trophy
Basically what a winner gets is the ability to forever hobnob with Gino Torretta and Eric Crouch. I’d imagine they’d press you to buy life insurance from them.
Royster will proabbly a preseason Heisman fave in 2009
With the graduation of the WR corps, I would imagine a lot of media will look at the gaudy stats and determine that the PSU running back will carry a larger load of the offense.
Besides, we all know who the Heisman trophy candidate will be:
It will be the QB of the Big XII South champion. It’s practically a done deal. The media made their decision back in early October.
That’s a lock. Basically, it’s just whoever wins the conference. So, right now I guess Harrell has the inside track over McCoy, with Daniels and Bradford getting invited to NYC.
by Tailgate Shogun on Nov 4, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
I think Tom Bradley should win the Heisman.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things." -Joe Paterno
by TheGunslinger on Nov 4, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Hold on...
I thought we were all supposed to pull for Laurinitis?
as the first
player in NCAA history with over 500 tackles in one season
hmmmm....
yeah royster is putting up great numbers but like Kevin said if it weren’t for the rest of the team how would his numbers look…I mean if the D stacks 8 men up front does he still get the carries…I personally think that Ringer is doing a hell of a job at MSU and he is basically carrying the burden himself, if the Spartans had any kind of passing attack he might well be getting 5+ ypc…I mean Look at LJ way back when, he basically carried this team and he was only on the ballot (he should have won)…any more though I think the big “H” is meaningless…ask Troy Smith how much dust his is collecting
It may be homerism
but I put Royster down. It is hard to tell if he is a product of the system, but he just gets ridiculous yardage whenever he touches the ball.
Ringer actually might be “more outstanding” since he gets his yards even though everyone knows it is going to hime, and I suppose the same could be said of Greene, but despite not touching the ball nearly as much as them (HALF of what Ringer has), he has nearly as good totals, and a much better YPC.
I didn't feel right doing it...
but I voted Chris Wells. Their O-line has been porous over there this year, or else Wells would probably be having another monster year instead of just a good year, and Pryor may never have taken over the QB position. Wells is a load, with good balance, vision, a nasty stiffarm and a decent amount of speed. More tools than any of the other backs. I’m just glad we stopped his ass this year.
...
It’s not about tools, because we all know that ringer runs a 4.3, beanie is gigantic, and Shonn Greene is a ball of muscle. It’s about who has stood out that most. Beanie has not stood out the most because he hasn’t done shit. He bitches to his line, meanwhile he didn’t break any tackles against us. Royster is an average-sized runner with 4.5 speed, and GREAT vision. You watch the games, and you can see that it is not about who has the tools it’s about who does what with the carries they get, and I think the numbers speak for themselves, the film speaks for itself…with the carries that Royster gets, he does a whole lot.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things." -Joe Paterno
by TheGunslinger on Nov 4, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Agree with most
of your post but physical attributes have to carry some weight. Royster wouldn’t be having nearly the year he’s having with Ohio State’s offensive line bumbling in front of him. Wells would be having a better year than he is having currently if our line were opening the holes for him. That’s all I’m saying. I think they’re both great backs and I agree that Royster has phenomenal vision and is a helluva running back, just that IMO Wells is an all-around slightly better back.
JoePa's philosophy is not a Heisman award-winning philosophy
A Heisman winner is a star. JoePa tries to downplay stars. No names on jerseys and focus on team achievements (undefeated seasons and MNCs). Sometimes we have Heisman candidates in the running DESPITE the team philosophy here at Penn State. I think that really says something.
Disagree
Royster’s stats are sick and I’d rather have him than any other back on the list. But he just doesn’t see enough of the football to be considered a dominant back. He’d need to get a solid 20-25 carries to be in contention. Right now he’s an extremely significant role player, kind of like a top WR. He puts up big yards when he gets the ball, but is not involved in every play.
My vote goes to Greene as he’s put up 100+ in every game this season and has the YPC to match.
Football stats
I agree-I wish football had its version of sabermetrics.
Ringer only 4.4 ypc? That’s good to know.
Your wish is granted -OR- Boring statistical analysis of RB data
First, we need some basic relationship to test for. Let’s assume that the more carries the RB gets, the more defenses will key on that running back, resulting in a smaller average YPC. You can definitely see that in the stats for Royster, Greene, and Ringer. If you were to graph the data, there seems to be a linear trendline (straight line relationship) between YPC and Carries for those three backs.
YPC = (-0.0148) * Carries + 9.2263.
According to the statistics around that line it is a nearly perfect fit. (r2 = 99.86%; a perfectly straight line would be r2 = 100%)
So what? (Good question.) According to this analysis, Beanie Wells is clearly an inferior back based on the YPC he has on his 124 carries. With the other three backs, we see an increase in YPC with less carries. Based on the experience of Royster, Greene and Ringer, a similar back should have 7.4 YPC. Wells underachieves with his meager 5.4 YPC, which is what the other three are predicted to produce given 260 carries or so.
Based on the statistics, you can choose either of the three as your favorite back:
- Royster is most likely to hit that "home run" play, getting a first down and then some with that high YPC.
- Ringer is close to getting the maximum possible predicted number of yards, making him the most "efficient" back (more carries would have reduced his YPC past the point of marginal utility* and lowered his predicted total yardage).
- Greene’s actual yardage is slightly better than the model predicted (~10 yards) which means he his overproducing, and from that perspective the best back.
In reality, the backs seem to do what they should be doing for their respective offenses. (I happen to think Royster is in the best offense, so I like his playmaking ability best.) All three are clearly producing better than Wells.
This is a vastly oversimplified take on the subject. Somebody could try and look at the individual game statistics and see what kind of predictions can be made with that data. Also, my assumption about carries driving YPC down may not be one which should drive this model. I’d like to hear some other thoughts about what makes for a good RB. Finally, if he’s around, I’d like Bleed Blue ’n White to tear my assumptions apart and see what he thinks about this.
* Yes, I used an economic term in a statistical analysis of college football running back data.
Football sabermetrics seem to be impossible
Due to so so many outstanding factors. Everything is highly variable. It would work best if every drive started at the 20 yard line, if the starters played for the same amount of time for every team, and if the offensive playcalling did not factor what the score was at the time. That would be a fairly boring version of football, no?
Let’s just take a very simple, specific category: RB runs on offensive TD drives for PSU, Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State. Even in this simple condition, there are a wealth of variables:
For starters, Penn State is #1 school in the NCAA FBS in kickoff return yardage. Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State are 87th, 94th, and 98th in the same category respectively. PSU on average has to travel 10 less yards to get into the end zone. This is where I begin to make assumptions: 10 fewer yards probably averages 3 less plays per touchdown drive. Since PSU is averaging 5 offensive TD’s per game, that’s 15 less opportunities to run, yet the same result of 6 points. Let’s assume the 15 less carries per game on offensive TD drives for PSU is true.
What about Derrick Williams kickoff runs for TD’s? There is no offensive drive when that occurs. That drives the kickoff numbers off, and it could be that PSU non-TD kickoffs are only a couple of yards closer to the endzone than the rest of the schools mentioned.
What if you’re a run-heavy offense? Even with 15 less opportunities to run, the number of carries per team could be equivalent if PSU ran more and the rest of the schools passed more. Also, that would probably key the defensive scheme to focus on the run.
Who’s running? Not every run play features Greene, Royster, Wells, and Ringer. There may be fewer carries for Royster, but if he split carries with Stephfon to an equivalent rate as one back from the remaining schools the defensive scheme could focus on the run just the same.
When are they running? A big reason that Royster has fewer carries is that he hasn’t been on the field in the second half of several games. You can’t focus on him when he’s not on the field. Defenses when down 21+ points will tend to focus on the run as PSU attempts to run out the clock in the second half. One would expect less yards for Green as a result. The opposite is true.
MSU, Iowa, and Ohio State have only been averaging around 3 offensive TD’s per game, compared to PSU’s 5. That could mean that the total number of carries is not 15 less per game. For example:
-8 carries per drive for 3 offensive TDs = 24 total rushes per TD drive
-5 PSU carries per drive (3 less than the other schools dur to kickoffs) for 5 offensive TDs = 25 total rushes per TD drive.
All of this stuff is interrelated as well. But this is the big one:
What if one game features a bad defense and a defensive coaching scheme that keys entirely on the pass? This is what kills college football stats in comparison to MLB stats: standard deviation. One off-kilter result in a 162 baseball season does not offset the values that greatly in baseball statistics. Additionally, the quality of competition is fairly even. The worst teams will win 2 out of 5 games, the best will win 3 out of 5 games. College football has 14 games maximum, where one result can significantly affect the ranked values of a statistical categoty of a team. The quality of competition is also highly variable. The worst teams will win 0 out of 5 games, the best will win 5 out of 5 games.
If someone can quantify all of these (plus many more variables) into a solid, thought-out, defendable statistic that could indicate something like “running value”, I would be impressed.
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