Penn State-Iowa Statistical Comparison
by BSD on Nov 6, 2008 1:00 PM EST
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So there doesn't appear to be a single statistical category where the Hawkeyes hold a statistical advantage. This is odd since usually there is some oddball stat like Net Punting or Kickoff returns where Penn State has a disadvantage. So this is a first, but we shouldn't confuse this to mean Iowa is a bad team. It's more of a reflection of how dominant Penn State has been. But there are several things Iowa does well.
It's no surprise they feature a potent running game with Shonn Greene averaging 189 yards/game. But you can see they struggle in passing the ball, and their third down conversion rates suggests this team will struggle if Greene can be contained on first and second down forcing them to convert third and long situations. The biggest discrepancies on the chart come in our pass defense vs. their pass offense and our third down conversion defense vs. their third down conversion rate. Looking at our sack numbers against their sacks allowed it looks like Aaron Maybin and the defensive line should be able to get good pressure on Stanzi.
Their rushing defense is stellar and the pass defense is more than respectable. So those of you expecting us to go back to their prolithic scoring ways may be disappointed. The Iowa defense will prove a formidable test which is unfortunate. If we score 26 points we'll double their scoring allowed average, but I'm not sure that will be very impressive to the voters.
Special teams should be interesting to watch. Three out of four categories I list are a push, and the lone category where PSU holds an advantage is not really a weakness for Iowa. It's just that we're #1 in the country at returning kickoffs.
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I know Joe said he doesn't like running up the score but...
it is imperative that the team really dominates Iowa this weekend. If they show up flat and putz around to a win ( 23-10 or something like that) it will not help their case to be in the top 2 (unless Tech loses, cross your fingers!)
"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson
heres the thing
most of the voters don’t watch the games, and even when Penn State jumps to a big lead, it often bleeds itself down a al this season’s Oregon State and Purdue games. It’s all about what the box score looks like, and even if PSU dominates it’s not going to look impressive. That’s just not how Paterno closes games.
At this point we need to just hope Texas Tech loses, which is probable, and then not worry about it. I don’t think the voters have it in them to actually jump Florida or Texas over PSU. Even Les Miles today, a man known for dicey calls, said on Dan Patrick’s show today that you really don’t want to ever put a one loss team ahead of an undefeated. I think these coaches know what kind of precedent that sets; sure they have a great conferences now, but what happens when Oklahoma goes undefeated in five years and the Big XII has returned to early 2000’s quality?
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Don't forget how bad the Big XII was.
In 2004 there was one ranked team in that conference not named Oklahoma or Texas (Texas Tech at #18). When Texas won it all in 2005 there wasn’t a single Big XII team in spots 2-19.
People are fickle.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Remember
Nothing PSU does is right.
Win close and people think you’re overrated: (Ohio State)
Win big late and people think you’re struggling: (Michigan)
Win big early and people think your competition is weak: (Wisconsin)
Win big early against a team that beat USC and people get amnesia: (Oregon State)
by Cairo on Nov 6, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
hahaha
That was well done.
"Believe deep down in your heart that you're destined to do great things." -Joe Paterno
by TheGunslinger on Nov 6, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
The way to stop Green
will not necessarily be selling out on D to stop the run, but by going up 20 points so that they have to pass.
in a 13-6 style game Ferentz lets him run and run and run.
Just another RB on a one-dimensional offense.
I’m not concerned. In the past two years there has only been one RB who’s 5+ yards per carry and gained over 100 yards on Penn State’s run defense. Beanie Wells had 25 carries/133 yards/5.3 ypc in 2007 – the only game we’ve been thoroughly outclassed and it was last year. Additionally, his stat line was good, but it wasn’t otherworldly.
PSU has faced a LOT of quality RB’s in that time too.
PSU D-line & LB's...
I believe will be staged to get into the back-field in the first series if Iowa comes out with a known / typical game formation. IF they line up differently than “expected”, we will have a “plan B” out of the huddle to adjust.
THIS is the week MO gets his true form back, Maybin/Gains & the ’boys will feed on this and the push will be on!!!
" We need MORE cowbell !"
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