ESPN Bowl Playoff Simulation

by jimbo2psu on Dec 12, 2008 2:43 PM EST

I just ran a bunch of simulations based on different rankings on ESPN's Playoff Simulation page, powered by Accuscore, and found it to be pretty interesting. Here are the average percentage chance we'd have against top FBS teams according to Accuscore on the ESPN page:

vs. #1 Oklahoma: 27% chance of victory
vs. #2 Florida: 20%
vs. #3 Texas: 36%
vs. #4 Alabama: 39%
vs. #5 USC: 36%
vs. #6 Utah: 68%
vs. #7 Texas Tech: 54%
vs. #9 Boise State: 68%
vs. #10 Ohio State: 61%
vs. #11 TCU: 59%
vs. #12 Cincinnati: 81%
vs. #13 Oklahoma State: 48%
vs. #14 Georgia Tech: 75%
vs. #15 Georgia: 61%
vs. #16 BYU: 77%

Crazy to me that we would be (though only slightly) an underdog to Oklahoma State.

Also, interesting Bowl matchups:

Northwestern 28% vs. Missouri
Michigan State 29% vs. Georgia
Ohio State 23% vs. Texas
Oklahoma/Florida 50/50
Utah 21% vs. Alabama

Thoughts?

Thanks for the fanpost! Please do not post any content from a premium site that requires a subscription. Also, if you just want to share a link, quote, or video, please consider using fanshots instead. Thanks.

Tweet Comment 10 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

This "Accuscore" system is about as accurate as the BCS

so take it for what it’s worth.

I did, however, enjoy running about 5 simulations yesterda, and Penn State won it all in 2 of them, Oklahoma in one, Texas over Oklahoma in one, and Florida in one.

I’ll therefore take it as fact that we’re twice as deserving of the National Championship as any other team out there ;-)

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 12, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions

right on

It says more about perception than anything else, and seems to pretty much fall in line with the general consensus and the BCS poll.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 12, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

given that we already beat OSU

and this simulation only gives us a 61% chance, I’d say it’s not real accurate. :)

by PSU Jen on Dec 12, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions

It had some other good ones too...

Oklahoma 58% vs. Texas (?!)
Georgia Tech/ Georgia 50/50 (Tech won, I think as the road team)
Florida 71% vs. Alabama
Boise State 55% vs. Utah (I thought that was interesting. Would Boise/Bama be a better matchup than Utah/Bama?)

by jimbo2psu on Dec 12, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

I actually thought that was a pretty good number

We only played them once, and didn’t win by a whole lot. If we play that game ten times, I feel like we would win 6, but not much more or less.

by borisborisboris on Dec 12, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions

well

we lost to Iowa, but I’d imagine that Accuscore would give us a better than 61% chance against them. I also imagine they’d put USC’s chances pretty high against Oregon State.

I wonder what statistics etc. Accuscore uses in its predictions. They’re not horrible, but obviously very error prone (though I suppose they could defend their predictions by saying something like, “well we only predicted USC would beat Stanford 98% of the time…this time was just one of those 2%”)

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 12, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I found it pretty tough to argue most of Accuscore’s numbers outside of the Texas/OU matchup.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 12, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

ESPN had their Bowl Mania tonight

and Jesse Palmer is just another person at tWWL whom is completely blowing USC hardcore. USC with a 32 confidence pt pick to win…. I really hope our boys are seeing all of the “Love” out there for them.

Please just pancake this spoiled lil brats on New Years…

by cmdpsu15 on Dec 14, 2008 11:35 PM EST reply actions