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The Eternal Good Offense vs. Bad Defense Debate

Ceb5ee81-37b9-49af-9036-2147a828962a 
A tackle, huh?  Almost made it.

I think the Heisman is stupid. If someone offered me a Heisman vote I would turn it down because I have more important things to do, like, um, make fun of Big XII defenses.

Dr. Saturday unleashed the type of compilation stat chart you are used to if you've been reading his blog for any length of time. The premise:

Star-divide

[J]ust compare these three quarterbacks to the dozen quarterbacks who have been named "Most Outstanding" since 1988 (plus a couple legendary second-place finishers who could have won it, Vince Young and Peyton Manning). This is easy, since the trophy's been won every year since 2000 by a quarterback whose team is playing for the mythical championship (with the exception of Reggie Bush in 2005, who -- like many of his colleagues -- is lucky the vote came before the bowl game). If you ignore how often they throw (sorry, Andre and Ty) and account for what happens when they do, this is how the trio from 2008 stacks up against best quarterbacks of the past two decades (order is according to pass efficiency rating, with the best number in each category in red):

The chart, which is worth a look, is a list of the most popular quarterbacks since 1988 and, you'll never guess, but when sorted by QB rating the three 2009 candidates fill out the top three spots. Not only that, but they account for the best number in the field for every metric listed (comp%, Yds/Pass, TD%, Int% and, of course, Rating).

There has been a lot of talk about the three dominant Big XII offenses, and on paper they are pretty impressive:

Team (National Rank PPG / YPG)
Texas (5/9)
Oklahoma (1/3)
Texas Tech (4/4)

So essentially three of the most statistically productive offenses in the nation. But are they the best three offenses ever? Or are they benefiting from a conference that doesn't play defense? It's impossible to say for sure, but take a look at some other Big XII schools that aren't considered very good when compared to teams from other conferences.

Team (National Rank PPG / YPG)
Missouri (6/6)
Oklahoma St. (8/7)
Nebraska (18/12)
Kansas St (21/33)
Kansas (27/23)
Iowa St (63/42)
Baylor (46/49)
Texas A&M (67/77)
Colorado (99/93)

So even if you aren't led by a prolific, Heisman finalist quarterback, if you play in the Big XII you are still probably scoring a lot of points.  Bullets:

  • The five ranked teams are spread out 1 through 25 in the AP poll, yet all five are ranked among the top eight offenses (statistically) in the nation.
  • Only two teams in the entire conference are not ranked a top 50 offense.
  • Kansas State is the 21st best scoring offense and still won only two league games.
  • In the three games between the top Big XII teams, only once did an offense manage less 400 yards (Texas, @ TT, 374).  The average offensive production in those games was 476 yards per team.

Now there is more to be had if you want to go game by game here, looking out OOC play and such, but this was never meant to be that detailed of an analysis. The Big XII won the Media's Favorite Conference race this year, overcoming the heavily favored SEC, on the back of consistent 80 point totals. The Heisman presentation on Saturday night was dominated by talk of records and production, but no one challenged the context.

Texas Tech was able to pull into the national race by playing a Division III OOC schedule and then beating Texas on a very well executed final drive...they won with offense. Maybe, instead of Tech finally getting over the hump (they hadn't been able to get over .500 in league play since 2005) they finally found the right environment: a conference where no one will defend anything so every team with a productive offense can win.

If everyone in the entire conference is scoring loads and loads of points, might there be something else going on here?  The two Big XII representatives in New York this weekend were labeled the two best quarterbacks to play college football in the last 20 years, but does anyone really believe that?   Maybe things are as they appear, but I'd like to see some evidence.

Now, as always, we are going to have to hope that the minuscule sample size of bowl season validates our claims:

  • The best chance for this thing to become more evident is the game played in Arizona. Ohio State, who has already started adding to the potential list of excuses, is ranked 20th in defensive rushing YPG but 38th in rushing YPA. Their pass defense is very good, 6th nationally in YPG and 3rd in YPA, so they should be able to somewhat contain the high flying attack but may be forced to cheat if Texas runs the ball at all. Still, if they can overcome whatever it is that led to the previous two BCS embarrassments, a possibility exists for some reality here.
  • Oklahoma may see a similar situation against Florida; the Gators are second in the nation in opponent QB Rating and fifth in YPA. Oklahoma has a very good run game, something that sets them apart in the Big XII, and Florida is just 20th in rushing YPA.
  • Texas Tech's opponent, Ole Miss, has a great rush defense (3rd in rush YPA), but, luckily for the Red Raiders, they don't ever run the ball. Ready for this? Ole Miss comes in 62nd in pass YPG, 43rd in opponent QB Rating. Not going to be pretty.
  • Oklahoma State, the only other team the MSM might actually pay attention to from the Big XII, is matched with Oregon. They are even worse than Ole Miss; the Ducks are 57 in opponent QB Rating, #48 in passing YPA and (oh, comeon!) #109 in passing YPG.

So that's two games that could help debunk what I think is offense without context, but two less visible games that are probably a scoreboardman's nightmare. Oh, and in case you were wondering, the Vegas over/unders for the four games (in order of the bullets above): 53.5, 72, 70.5 , and 77. Only two bowl games not listed here have totals over 70.

(photo: Donna Mcwilliam / AP)

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So, is it now

OMG BIG XII POINTS ROFLCOPTER rather than OMG ESS EE SEE SP33D

John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Dec 15, 2008 1:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You lie like a dog on a rug.

If you were suddenly offered a Heisman vote – you would totally accept.

And yes, the Heisman is “dumb” – but that’s nothing new -

by PSUgirl on Dec 15, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

My idea of outstanding:

DJ Moore, CB, Vanderbilt. 51 tackles, 6 INT, 787 All purpose yards on offense and returns on a team going to their first bowl game in over 25 years. That’s outstanding in my book.

Also, it’s a defiant stance in support of defense.

I finally quieted some of the BigXII people around me by saying, “What we need to do in the Big Ten is to coach less effectively on defense. Then people will respect us.” It neatly summed up the illogical stat-love of the 2008 season.

by Cairo on Dec 15, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just got into this discussion over at TheBigLead

Big 12 Ds are terrible. But that is not Big 12 Os problem. Bradford was very deserving, his team (led by him) scored 60+ 5 games in a row, and the game before the streak started they could only muster 58.

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Dec 15, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The flip side of this is just as interesting.

You really should be looking at scoring defense and total defense. The scoring defense for Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Iowa State? 109 points per game combined.

by Cairo on Dec 15, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This can be applied to the USC D as well

Statistics can lie. Yes, USC’s scoring defense averages 7.8 points per game, but a lot of that can be attributed to the teams they played. UCLA, Virginia, Washington, and Wazzu are unspeakably bad on offense, ranking 109th or worse out of 119 teams in the FBS. Penn State’s worst team? Syracuse, which ranked 108th.
 
USC also had the bad offenses of Notre Dame and Arizona State, then two games against teams with severe offensive handicaps: Oregon with a 3rd-string QB and Ohio State without Beanie Wells.

IMO, the only good games against quality opponents were Cal, Arizona, Stanford, and Oregon State. They played well against Cal and Arizona, struggled against Stanford, and lost to Oregon State. They’ve got a good defense, but they’re not unstoppable. PSU’s 4th ranked scoring defense is by every measure comparable to USC’s.

by Cairo on Dec 15, 2008 1:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good point

What we really need is an examination of how Big XII teams did outside of the conference. We need to compare each opponents offensive totals compared to how they did when they were not playing a Big XII team. If they average 15 points and 150 yards more against Big XII teams than they do against the rest of their schedule I think it’s safe to say the Big XII defenses suck.

In either event I think the Big XII is in for a rude awakening come bowl time. Florida is going to mop the floor with Oklahoma.

by BSD on Dec 15, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TCU-Oklahoma

TCU-OU is an indicator. TCU is #20/#2 in scoring offense/defense. The Horned Frogs “held” Oklahoma to 35 points at home, the same number that Texas held OU in Dallas in the Longhorns’ win. Still, it’s only one game. There’s not enough evidence from that to state that OU will drop 50 points on UF.

On a completely unrelated note, Sam Bradford looks like John Oates from Hall & Oates.

by Cairo on Dec 15, 2008 2:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I assume thats the white guy then

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Dec 15, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh

They’re both white.

Looks like Oates, though.

by shadowfax on Dec 15, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

...and also..."definately"

“not HOT..!”

" We need MORE cowbell !"

by BlueWhiteLife on Dec 15, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lets check some out.

OU played Cincy and put up 52(not great evidence though) and TCU and put up 35

Texas put up 52 on Arkansas

Mizzou put up 52 on Illinois (didn’t know most of my examples would have 52 pts in them)

The offenses were very good. we’ll find out in the MNC. If Bradford and Co. can put up 30+ on a fantastic Florida D then I think we have our answer

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Dec 15, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at OOC games doesn't really work here.

Is that you don’t have anywhere near enough data points to make any kind of judgment. The Big XII just didn’t play enough quality OOC games. TCU’s stats are inflated for not playing in a BCS conference, and

-Illinois ranked 9th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (6th/9th in pass/rush ypg).
-Arkansas has a horrible defense, ranking dead last in the SEC in scoring and total defense
-Cinci has a decent defense, 26th nationally in scoring and total, but only had one other ranked team on their schedule: #18 Pitt.

So really the problem is that there are not enough data points between conferences put any confidence in a conclusion. This isn’t just a problem when looking at defenses, though. There are 8-10 teams with legit MNC gripes and not one single way of distinguishing between them because, as they say, nobody playing anybody.

by Kevin HD on Dec 15, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

But how did other offenses do against Big XII defenses. I think that’s what we’re after. Not so much how Big XII offenses did against their competition.

by BSD on Dec 15, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about Coastal Carolina?

I agree, PSU has a good defense. But you are being a little disingenuous. If you want to discount the PAC 10, ok. Let’s just compare the OOC schedules; USC has the best OOC schedule (opponents combined record 21-15) of all teams ranked up to #8 PSU.

USC held those OOC teams to 17 points total. Now go ahead and discount that, tell me why that doesn’t matter. On Thursday January 1st you’ll find out just how good this defense is. I think you’ll agree when it over, they’re the best you play this year.

Good Luck

by WE ARE SC on Dec 15, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

alright...

You beat up on Virginia right before they lost by 20 to Duke, right? You gave up only 3 points to Ohio State without their 1st round running back and mobile qb (with them both in there, PSU only gave up 6). You absolutely dominated Notre Dame which I would normally kind of scoff at, but anyone that saw that game knows the sheer dominance you guys showed that game. That was no doubt a very impressive performance. Other than that, a shutout of Washington, Washington State, giving up 10 to Arizona, 10 to Oregon’s 3rd stringer in his first (I think) game, shut down Cal and UCLA and shutout Az St. Congratulations. Play a real offense in a couple weeks.

By the way, no one should doubt that the USC defense is the best we’ll play this season, just maybe not an NFL defense. They can be had.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 15, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair Enough

I have heard the “NFC West” comments. I agree that’s ridiculous. I also would say, the best team USC will face this year, on both sides of the ball is PSU.

I think SC has a better than average chance of winning; if the offense shows up. That’s been the weak link this year, inconsistent offensive production. If Sanchez brings his “A” game I think USC win’s by 2 scores. If he struggles and PSU scores at least 3 touchdowns, they can win. In any event I think fans are in for a great game.

Good Luck.

by WE ARE SC on Dec 15, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for comin round

And displaying some personality as well as class.

Agree it’s gonna be a great game!

pax et amor

by jtothep on Dec 15, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It’s going to be a great game. We’re all looking forward to the challenge of playing a great team like USC.

by BSD on Dec 15, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You’re starting to sound like a well versed coach during a press conference.

Let's Go State

by rmcmillen50 on Dec 15, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

This is making me wonder

What’s going to happen when the WE ARE chants start at the Rose Bowl? Do you guys do the whole stadium thing like we do?

by speedomike on Dec 15, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

O' Ya

Mainly if were winning at the end of the game. At the UCLA game it changed to THIS IS …..OUR HOUSE.

This should be great; both schools have so much tradition. The Trojan Marching Band playing Conquest and Fight On, Traveler. Man there’s nothing like college football.

FIGHT ON!

by WE ARE SC on Dec 15, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

speaking of the trojan marching band....

I’m gunna be pissed if they pull a Florida State and just play Tribute to Troy all game. Granted its better than the indian chant, but when I watch SC on tv, thats all I hear. I’m so glad the Blue Band will change it up by playing either 7 Nation Army, Skin I’m in, Dance to the Music, “oh, oh, oh, lets go state”, etc

Let's Go State

by rmcmillen50 on Dec 15, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also-

SC guy-whats the best way to get from LAX to Santa Monica? Cab?

by speedomike on Dec 16, 2008 7:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Best?

Cheapest bus, fastest cab. It’s only a 20-30 min drive to Santa Monica, less than 15 miles. The bus may take 60 min. If you want to take the bus go to www.metro.net and use the trip planner. Also check with the Hotel, many have shuttles. Santa Monica has the Big Blue Bus www.bigbluebus.com, I’m sure they have frequent service from LAX.

by WE ARE SC on Dec 16, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Does USC really chant "We are...SC"?

Just curious if any other fanbase has the whole “We are” mentality.

by NJ lion on Dec 16, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My God

There have been some ridiculous Heisman winners. Jason White, Chris Weinke I feel like it all started with Gino Toretta.

by speedomike on Dec 15, 2008 2:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The original head scratcher

That was really the start of this movement to just give the Heisman to the quarterback of the best team.

Didn’t he beat out Curtis Enis or something for the trophy that year?

by BSD on Dec 15, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

1992

Couldn’t have been Enis. I don’t remember who else was up for it but thought Toretta was a on odd choice. I remember having this set of football cards with all the Heisman winners….nevermind I’m looking it up.

Ok here it is from 1976-2006.
He beat out Faulk. Wow.

by speedomike on Dec 15, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think...

…you need to add the Northwetern v. Missouri game as a point of comparison. NU’s defense is pretty good (especially the D-line) — 23rd nationwide in scoring D, 13th nationwide in sacks, 20th in tackles for loss — and arguably better than anything Missouri has seen this season.

By contrast, NU’s previously high-flying offense was non-existent this year. But they are going up against the 107th worst passing defense in the country in Missouri.

As a 14 point underdog, if NU manages to score points on Mizzou and/or/especially keep Mizzou out of the end zone, I think we’d finally conclude the “good offense or crappy defense” debate.

by Chadnudj on Dec 15, 2008 2:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You're right, I probably should have included NW.

The bag is mixed, though:

  1. opponent passer rating
  2. in pass YPA
  3. in pass YPG
  4. in rush YPA

Not spectacular, and keep in mind this includes a schedule of:
Syracuse (#101 total offense nationally)
Duke (#61)
S.Illinois (#38)
Ohio U (#72)

And didn’t include:
Penn State (#1 Big Ten total offense, #5 nationally)
Wisconsin (#4 / #32)

That’s a lot of numbers but what I’m trying to say is (1)Northwestern’s stats are decent but not great and (2)they include a whole lot of very poor offenses as opponents.

by Kevin HD on Dec 15, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good Stuff Kev

I can’t wait for bowl season to start. I’m hoping for the Big XII’s uppance to come (and possibly profit from it).

Ya know what I took away from this article? Colorado’s offense was really, really bad.

by Kunk on Dec 15, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What do you want from them

IT’S DIVISION 1 FOOTBALL! IT’S THE BIG 12! IT AIN’T INTRAMURALS!

/mandatory

Throw it to Zug!

by ReadingRambler on Dec 15, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If you're deconstructing Big XII offensive production...

… I’m assuming the next article will be deconstructing SEC defensive numbers. I mean, no one in the SEC other than Georgia and Florida fielded anything even vaguely resembling a solid offense (and Georgia looked like they belonged in the Big XII South, with a potent offense and hapless defense).

by drothgery on Dec 15, 2008 5:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How many SEC games did you watch?

Defense as a whole is really decent in that confernece…maybe it is because I live down here and have become innoculated to the culture, but the SEC has the best defenses in the country this year…YES just as good, or better than PSU….

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Dec 16, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um, didn’t LSU get 31 hung on it…by Troy? Georgia gave up 40-ish to Tech (good team, but not that good)…I’ll admit they’re better than the Big XII (they tackle occasionally!) but I wouldn’t say they match defensively with the best of the Big Ten.

John Madden told me 90% of the game was half-mental...

by TheK-GunNeedsReloaded on Dec 16, 2008 9:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am not going to get into a pissing match with you...

but if you really believe that you are delusional….My loyalty to PSU runs VERY deep…but I am a pretty well versed guy in terms of college football and I watch 8-12 games a week…I try and watch a plethora of games…the top three defenses in the SEC would be better than the best three from the Big Ten…

You brought up two teams from the SEC…LSU is down this year, and Georgia was a product of the same type of hype that michigan had (they have a returning QB who looks good, and a RB with a name, and some wrs they must be GREAT!)
Let us not forget Wisconsin gave up 35 to Cal Poly…Let me repeat that CAL POLY, or that Michigan gave up 35 to Notre Dame, or that Purdue gave up 38 to Notre Dame….

And to say that the SEC tackles occasionally is absurd…

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Dec 16, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess...

… but that’s only because Tennessee had a great defense on an otherwise terrible team. Alabama and Florida just aren’t any better than PSU and Ohio State defensively, and Iowa’s pretty good.

by drothgery on Dec 17, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Big Ten vs. SEC

It depends: is Points Per Game or Yards Per Game a better metric for measuring a defense?

Points per Game (PPG)

  1. Penn State (12.4)
  2. Florida (12.8)
  3. Alabama (13.0)
  4. Ohio State (13.1)
  5. Iowa (13.3)
  6. Tennessee (16.8)

Yards Per Game

  1. Alabama (256.9)
  2. Tennessee (263.5)
  3. Penn State (263.9)
  4. Florida (279.31)
  5. Ohio State (279.25)
  6. Iowa (289.5)

by Aaron PSU on Dec 16, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Looking at them

they look pretty even, with the SEC being better overall…IMHO

Success without honor is like an unseasoned dish, it will fill you up but it won't taste good. - Joe V. Paterno

by carolinaeasy on Dec 16, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't really care about yards.

teams can run around their side of the field (and even up to our 35) all day if they want.

Of course, points can be deceiving as well – look at the garbage points PSU surrendered this year.

Illinois’ 24 points scored are much different than iowa’s 24.

by PSUgirl on Dec 16, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yards per play, red zone and 3rd down

Over a season, total yards and points are pretty useful. But I do think they are biased by the style of football teams play. Big 12 defenses on average are mediocre, but the fact that offenses are pass happy and run more plays per game (because passes stop the clock on both 1st downs and incompletions) means even the better defenses will give up a lot of yardage. A bad offense will lead to short fields for the opponent and lots of points. A great offense will simply score to quickly.

I’m much more interested in yards per play. That corrects somewhat for style of play. Then the real big ones are 3rd down conversions and red zone conversions. Those stars really indicate if your defense can get off the field when it has the chance. If a team gives up big plays on first and second down, those will show up in the total yardage stats.

by gcdyersb on Dec 16, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

'I don't really care about yards'

The first rule of Bend But Don’t Suck is you don’t really care about yards.
The second rule of Bend But Don’t Suck is you really, really care about points.

pax et amor

by jtothep on Dec 16, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Tom Bradley has a saying: “It takes three field goals to beat one touchdown.”

Jay Paterno on the other hand thinks kicking a field goal in 12 out of 20 attempts in the redzone is a good thing.

by BSD on Dec 17, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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