Comparing how teams did against their opponents' averages

by Elihu on Dec 17, 2008 12:11 PM EST

I wondered how to make more sense of some of the statistics we see when people try to compare teams that don't play each other. I thought it would be interesting to see how a team did compared to what that team's opponents averaged. What I mean is that if a team averages 150 rushing yards a game against teams that average giving up 100 rushing yards a game, that is more impressive than averaging 175 yards rushing a game against teams that average giving up 200 yards rushing a game. So, anyway, I did a first cut at a spreadsheet that compares yards passing, yards rushing and points for both offense and defense for some of the top teams. I found the results interesting. USC's defense is more impressive than I thought it would be. I plan to make some changes to how I calculate the values to make it easier to work with, but I posted what I have so far. Please reply if you have any questions or comments.

As an Excel spreadsheet: http://home.comcast.net/~elihurozen/delta.xls

As a web page: http://home.comcast.net/~elihurozen/Delta.htm

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I had been meaning to put something together like this as well

but you beat me to it.

One thing I was thinking, though (but it will take more work, since individual game statistics also would matter, and therefore need to be compiled) but to see how many standard deviations above/below the mean a team did.

It is one thing if Team A beat Team B by 13 points more than average, but it seems less impressive if half the teams beat Team B by 20 points more than average, while the other half beat Team B by 20 points less than average.

Not sure if it is worth doing, or if it would give any more significant data, but just a suggestion.

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 17, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions

I like it.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by KevinHD on Dec 17, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions

One suggestion

Very nice work. It would be a pain in the ass but my one suggestion would be to remove how Team A’s stats against Team B influenced Team B’s average. To truly isolate the effect of how a team did against their opponent’s average, you should remove that team’s “affect” on the average.

For example, Coastal Carolina’s average points against was 20.27 when removing PSU’s 66 points, instead of 24.08. Using this logic all the way through the schedule, PSU scored 17.08 more points than their opponents averaged giving up.

Either way, I think you get a good idea from these stats alone.

by Screen Name 20 on Dec 17, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions

Coastal Carolina, Honestly?

Play against a Div1AA school shouldn’t be considered. I understand all but a few schools do it, but the data is worthless.

by WE ARE SC on Dec 17, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Good point

So should any stats against Washington and Washington State. And maybe UCLA.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Dec 17, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

Washington and Washington State at least played Division IA teams. Coastal Carolina played mostly Division IAA teams.

In the case of all of the other ones, you’re comparing Penn State against an “average” D-IA opponent, for the most part. In Coastal Carolina’s case you’re comparing Penn State against D-IAA opponents.

by Bleed Blue 'n White on Dec 17, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

yes, but look how favorable we look compared to the average D-1AA opponent ;-)

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 22, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

Are We Comparing Conferences?

This is usually a tactic used the the ess eee see. But if you want to go there, that’s fine. The last time I check nobody was running from Purdue, Michigan or Indiana. Of course USC doesn’t play any Div 1 AA teams, so I’m not sure what effect that has, I do fell confident UCLA would beat Coastal Carolina, I would even pick them against Purdue, Michigan or Indiana.

by WE ARE SC on Dec 17, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

Quick! Name the only team in the FBS to not win a game all year and what was their conference!

Dude… the Pac 10 was really shiite this year but the same could be said about most conferences and I also refuse to get down to the OMG ESSS EEEE CEEE finger pointing game. I honestly think that the whole parity thing may be catching up on many of us. I really believe that we will see a great game on New Year’s as I believe we got the best of the Big and Pac 10 and one of us will earn our bragging rights in the RB.

Could be worse… at least we’re not the Orange Bowl… sheesh…

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Dec 18, 2008 12:10 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

It’s hard to avoid the ol’ conference swordfight and while the Big Ten might be a little better than the Pac 10 or vice versa, neither one really lit the world on fire and even if they did, it doesn’t matter a whole lot. The important thing for comparing stats between PSU and USC is that the conferences are roughly comparable and I think they probably are. Without good enough connectivity, it’s impossible to really tell for sure, which adds a significant margin of error into the data’s comparability. I suspect that for PSU and USC, the stats will come within this margin of error, making it necessary for the two teams to actually settle it on the field.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 18, 2008 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

Seems We Agree

Talk is, well, talk. On New Years Day I think we’ll see the best game of the bowl season, and IMO the winner would have a better than average chance of beating the BCS Champion.

I don’t make excuses for fellow conference teams. in my opinion, their opponents, nothing more. I have always been a little bewildered by the whole ees eee see group think thing.

by WE ARE SC on Dec 18, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yessir!

You Pac10 kids seem to be the only other ones playing in the ‘not cool’ part of the play yard with us as that’s where the media has banished us to. Well we certainly look forward to seeing you on New Year’s and here’s to having a great time at the RB!

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Dec 18, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

Respect

It seems that’s the problem with the Big Ten and Pac-10 right now. You can’t slip up because there are no other opportunities to impress the voters. Florida can lose to Mississippi, but then they can go on to throttle Georgia, Alabama, and LSU and all is forgiven. Oklahoma can lose to Texas, but go beat down Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Missouri and we’ll forget about it.

Beating UCLA or Notre Dame or Indiana or Michigan State just doesn’t have the same effect.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Dec 18, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

too bad UCLA, Notre Dame, Indiana, and Michigan State

couldn’t have had exaggerated preseason rankings like Georgia, LSU, and Auburn

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 22, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think it is comparing conferences just to compare conferences

but so that we can see how say Penn State matches up compared to the average teams the rest of our conference played, and likewise for USC in the Pac-10. The problem still remains, to an extent, though, in that our opponents had pretty much the same common opponents as we did, so it is still hard to compare across a different conference

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 22, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions