Sandbagging Is Not The Answer

by Kevin HD on Dec 19, 2008 2:12 PM EST in Big Ten Conference Comment 29 comments

News Flash: The Big Ten is not considered the hottest conference right now. Sagarin has the league ranked 5th, ahead of only the Pac-10 amongst BCS conferences. Public perception ranges all over the place, but you would be hard pressed to find a pundant or water cooler expert put them anywhere but a very distant third (or, of course, much lower than that depending on geographical location).

The problem has always been, though, that the Big Ten has the best bowl matchups, very often resulting in the midwest team not only being outmatched, but usually playing what amounts to a road game down south.

It shows this season, as only Iowa is considered a Vegas favorite. Your average Big Ten team is a full touchdown underdog.

Adam Rittenberg wonders if the Big Ten might have been better off with just one BCS bid, giving us these projected matchups:

Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State

Capital One: Ohio State vs. Georgia

Outback: Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Alamo: Iowa vs. Missouri

Champs Sports: Northwestern vs. Florida State

Insight: Wisconsin vs. Kansas

Motor City: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

[I'm not sure why he decided to put Oregon State in the Rose Bowl instead of USC, for the rest of this post I'm going to correct that unless someone can point out why this particular matchup was downgraded.]

[I've been edumacated, and the story goes "Oregon State didn't lose to Oregon". I'm still sticking with USC if for no other reason than a PSU-OSU re-match is a lose-lose-lose (if we win we lose, if we lose we lose, and either way the fans lose because rematches are no fun when the first game was a blowout). A second PSU win over Or St doesn't do anything to help the Big Ten's image.]

He says the Big Ten would be favored in three, maybe four of those matchups. Let's look a little closer.

Game	Sagarin Prediction
Rose: Penn State vs. USC	USC -5.5
Capital One: Ohio State vs. Georgia	OSU -6.5
Outback: Michigan State vs. South Carolina	MSU -2
Alamo: Iowa vs. Missouri	Iowa -2
Champs Sports: Northwestern vs. Florida State	FSU -5.5
Insight: Wisconsin vs. Kansas	Kansas -5.5
Motor City: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan	Minn -4.5

So it's a little better on the surface; the Big Ten is favored in four of the seven. The problem, though, is that two of those lines are within two points, and when you consider the Outback is in SEC country (against an SEC team) and the Alamo is in Big XII country (against a Big XII team), home field is bound to make those closer to picks.

Also, from a PR standpoint, everything after the Outback, and really the Capital One, doesn't even register. Public perception is made on the BCS stage, and only if the other bowls confirm the results are they even mentioned. Don't believe me? Ohio State losing to Florida in 2006 was SEC dominance, even though Penn State and Wisconsin won the Capital One and Outback bowls. Similar story last year, when Michigan beat heavily favored Florida.

The best way for the Big Ten to look good is to win games they shouldn't, and, more importantly, go at least 1-1 in the BCS this year. If the conference sandbags it only improves the record, but also gives more reasons to dismiss it. Right or wrong, if your top two or three teams don't compete with the rest of the top leagues, the rest doesn't matter.

Rather than think of this as the Big Ten drawing a bad lot, it makes more sense to consider this an opportunity to stop the insanity. Besides, it's not like the conference has much to lose.

0 recs | Comment 29 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I think...

I think he has Ore. St instead of USC because for Ohio St. to have not made a BCS game Ore. St. would have had to win the PAC-10 sending them to the Rose Bowl and USC would get the at large bid that Ohio St. got.

by gdev on Dec 19, 2008 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I see.

I guess I just expected the explanation to be someone getting picked instead of Ohio State, BSU was probably the only real alternative.

That would change things slightly but, then again, not really. Winning a game you just won in blowout fashion does not help anyone’s image.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 19, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn

Someone beat me to it, I would have agree with gdev

"gotta love the HD"

by biscoiv on Dec 19, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Said it before

OSU hosed us in the bowls again with regards to perception.

I run a bowl pick ‘em at the office and out of the 19 people that made picks, the Big Ten isn’t highly thought of in their matchups. No one picked OSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan State. A few took Northwestern, about half took Iowa, and a third took PSU (which really surprised me). It’s not a very large sample size but it’s fairly representative of a few things…

1. The teams that stepped up to fill the “power vacuum” (Minnesota, Northwestern) aren’t perceived as worthy yet.
2. Michigan State’s demolition against the two big powers makes the third best team in the conference look awful. Thus, everyone below MSU must be super awful.
3. OSU is really resented for getting another BCS bid that they don’t deserve.

I just don’t see this ending well for the Big Ten, unfortunately.

Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.

by 06Lion on Dec 19, 2008 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How the hell.....

does Sagarin have the Big Least ranked ahead of the Big 10?! Oh wait….this is the same dumbass that has Utah with a tougher strenghten of schedule than PSU! What a joke……Let’s look at the wins.

PSU beat: Oregon State, Wisconsin (ranked at the time), Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan St.

Utah beat: Oregon State, Michigan, BYU and TCU

WTF?? I think this douche needs to get his head out of his disc drive and take a better look at the schedules.

As for our bowl match-ups….Yes….they are not ideal but I think people are going to be surprised with the conferences performance this year. Let’s hope so! GO LIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?

by pic15 on Dec 19, 2008 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

BYU and TCU

are better than Michigan State and Wisconsin. The fact that Wisconsin was ranked at the time is meaningless, insofar as they sucked. Michigan State was just better than a bunch of other pretty mediocre teams.

Sagarin’s rankings are flawed like everyone elses, but they are better than most.

"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008

by jesse. on Dec 19, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but not better than Ohio State

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 22, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That was my question

I understand most of those rankings, but the Big East is only mediocre to awful

by chitownhawkeye on Dec 19, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Conference pride is a fallacy

I’m sort of not following the logic of either Rittenberg, Kevin’s argument, or gdev’s elaboration. I guess I don’t understand WHY any of this matters. Conferences are a matter of convenience of money and scheduling and little of anything to do with identity or pride. We can thank the EEESSSS EEEEEIIIEEEE SSSSSEEEEE (first time I’ve ever spelled it this way) for instigating the soap opera dramatics with ESPN hyper-inflating the school yard bullying – literally.

I don’t tell people I go to the “Big Ten”. I say “Penn State”. I bet my house and the life of my friends and family that you all do too. This is another example of how sports writers – which there are so many of them now, and I’m not counting the bloggers – trying to drum up adversarial feelings by concocting conference supremacy or inadequacy. The debate forces us into their * sigh * paradigm. Then we end up talking like them.

Kind of like how the argument AGAINST a playoff system has seeped into our consciousness.

I’ll get off my high horse now….

by Mr. Rosewater on Dec 19, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also...

Rittenberg’s argument is that to make the Big Ten look good, we should downgrade our bowl presence. That way the Big Ten will have more wins and that somehow makes us look good.

I mean, WTF? Who thinks like that?

And see? Now I’M talking like Them!

by Mr. Rosewater on Dec 19, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you in principle...

But the reason all this matters is the BCS. Strength of schedule matters, so when our opponents (most of whom are in the Big Ten) are considered strong teams, it means more to the voters/computers when we beat them. I personally couldn’t care less about Big Ten pride – I wish we weren’t even in the stupid conference, but the reason why we’re the farthest away from playing for the national title of all the one-loss teams (save Ball State)? That would be Big Ten conference perception. The Big Ten can go to hell as far as I’m concerned, but I don’t want perception of our conference to hurt our chances of playing for the title.

This is yet another reason why we need a freaking PLAYOFF. So that, similar to the NFL, you root against your hated rivals no matter who they’re playing.

by PSUMark2008 on Dec 19, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, schedule matters

BUT when sports writers clamp on to conference chest thumping, and SEC fans are champions of this, it manipulates the subjective strength of the collective schools. This Rittenberg column reeks of thought and discourse manipulation. It’s so brazen that it TELLS you how he would manipulate it so that the Big Ten will look good after the Bowl Games. It’s utter bullsh!t because why does it matter how the conference stands AFTER the season’s over? And at what cost? Trying to get us to accept one less school in the BCS?

Trying to get us to accept our inadequate league thereby brain washing us to accept sub-par bowl matchups to save it’s reputation? Meanwhile setting up better matchups for everyone else? Isn’t this what ESPN wants?

God, this is my most paranoid post to date…

by Mr. Rosewater on Dec 19, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not only what they want

with their new SEC tv deal, what they’re going to get

by chitownhawkeye on Dec 19, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Both the teams in the MNC this year have one loss, just like PSU. There is a reason we aren’t even mentioned for a spot in that game and it doesn’t have anything to do how the team played. They beat the crap out of everyone except OSU and lost to Iowa in terrible weather, on the road, in the final minute of the game.

The reason is that the Big Ten doesn’t perform well in their OOC games. I’m not saying “rah rah big ten” or anything like that, but from a practical standpoint our opponents need to start playing better because it does affect PSU.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 19, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with you...

I HATE the annual conference pissing contest, and for the life of me I cannot understand why it rages on the most at the two precise times when it matters the absolute least: during the preseason and right before the bowls. And I don’t even think it’s because sportswriters have an agenda. I just think it’s the easiest thing to do when you either don’t watch the football ot don’t know football in general. Sportswriters can be lazy and when they are I think things like the conference pissing contest are the result. They look at comparatively dumb things like overall conference record or SOS instead of looking into matchups and actual performance. Minnesota could beat LSU!! No they couldn’t! Alright well my conference’s 8th best team could kill your 7th best team! Who cares!! So I agree with you there. The important thing is that regardless of the perception of anything there will be some fun football to watch over the holidays.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 22, 2008 9:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ACC #1

Really? You have got to be kidding me. These rankings get more useless every season.

"Red, it took me sixteen years to get here. You play me, and I'll give ya the best I got."

by Touchdown on Dec 19, 2008 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Outback Bowl is not in "SEC country"

The Outback Bowl is held in Tampa, FL, home of South Florida. There are at least as many FSU fans in town as there are UF fans. And don’t forget about Miami. And UCF.

It’s about as neutral a bowl as your going to see. In fact, if anything, it is an East Coast-biased bowl.

by Nittany Raleigh on Dec 19, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How Many Penn State Fans?

Are in Tampa?

I would reckon a few less than there are Florida fans.

If there ever is a playoff, remember, Tampa will be one of the “neutral” sites. Super.

by CDRS on Dec 19, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Or Iowa fans?

It’s about how easy it is for a fan base to get to the game. S. Carolina is a heck of a lot closer than Iowa, and there are probably a lot more S. Carolina grads that move to that state than ones from UI…that’s all I meant.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 19, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just once

I’d like a serious bowl played up north (and no, I don’t consider the blue turf whatever it’s called bowl to be serious). I know it’ll never happen because corporate sponsers won’t throw money at the chance to see snow on Jan 1, not to mention fans from any southern school simply disappearing if the temperature reached freezing. But I want to see it. I want to see a Florida playing a Penn State in bad conditions. Just to hear the whining (not so much the players, more the announcers and fans)
Actually, with the schedule going past Thanksgiving coming up, maybe somebody can.
Please. It would be so worth it.

by chitownhawkeye on Dec 19, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with ya there...

and I think it could be a legit thing too. I think they could really play it up as actual football played in real football weather while all the other pretty boys get a tan. Call it the Ice Bowl. Take pride in it because it’s unique and market it that way. I for one would love it. Although I’m sure the players would rather be warm….

by jimbo2psu on Dec 22, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll one-up you

let’s just do a playoff format with the first round being home games for the higher seeded teams. That way the sponsors don’t get a say in it.

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 22, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tampa

is 1/2 SEC and the other half ACC with the Bulls up and coming Big East thrown in. Next biggest team unfortunately for me is ohio state.

"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."

by showtime on Dec 19, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey guys, just wanted to pop over to thank you for introducing our blog to Pitt fans.

They are warm, classy people who really understand the game of football.

I left my wallet in El Segundo.

by ArbyOSU on Dec 19, 2008 5:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I second that

They are everything you said they would be

I support Takimoto in his effort to support Roger Kieschnick in his quest to becoming the best Kieschnick ever to play professional baseball.

by The VD Special on Dec 19, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On behalf of the state of Pennsylvania

we sincerely apologize. We’ve been trying to sell them to West Virginia for a few years now….

by IcersGuy on Dec 19, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is an opportunity for the Big Ten

The matchups are almost perfect for the conference this year, unlike years prior that have created a bad rap for the conference. In prior years many Big Ten teams in bowls were taking on other conferences higher rated teams. Such as USC pounding the Big 10 #2 team the past two years while the Big 10 #1 OSU was in the BCS Championship game embarassing themselves and their conference.

This cannot be said this year. The matchups are almost perfect with exception of FSU/WISC…..

Team/Conference Rank
PSU/1 vs. USC/1
Ohio St/2 vs. Texas/2
Michigan St/3 vs Georgia/3
Northwestern/4 vs. Missou/4
Iowa/5 vs. S. Carolina/5
Wisconsin/6 vs. Florida St/4
Minnesota/7 vs. Kansas/7

Looks like the Big Ten needs to step and play like Big Boys this bowl season. No excuses for not coming away over 500 for the bowl season.
I say the Big Ten comes away 4-3 in the bowls.

by Lionseye on Dec 20, 2008 9:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

When you ain't got nothing

you’ve got nothing to lose

I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.

by spakajewia on Dec 20, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I say GO BIG TEN!

Believe me, I too went to Penn State and not “THE BIG TEN.” However, until “sports writers STOP clamping on to conference chest thumping”, and we are guaged instead by our individual ablitlities, this is what we have to work with. These are the teams that we need to do well to make us look good for beating them. Its not preferable, but it is what is.

by TITCUS on Dec 23, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs