Rose Bowl Stat Comparison
by BSD
on Dec 26, 2008 9:00 AM EST
in Game Previews
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I must say, there is a lot more blue on that chart than I expected to see before I put it together. We all know USC's defense touts some ridiculous statistics, so their advantage over Penn State's offense is no surprise, but they don't exactly blow the Nitts out of the water in anything.
When you compare Penn State's defensive statistics against USC's you see just about everything is a push, but when you look closely you see that Penn State is ranked slightly higher in all of the categories suggesting the USC advantage on defense is just about cancelled out by Penn State's advantage on defense.
This suggests to me that the game will be decided by the factors that people always forget about: Special teams, turnovers, and penalties. And when you look at the bottom half of this chart you see a whole lot of blue. Penn State should hold a considerable advantage in special teams with the exception of kickoff coverage. (That being said, I hope USC gets to return a lot of kicks.) Hopefully the advantage in the punting game will translate into shorter fields for the Penn State offense to work with negating the USC advantage on defense. The Trojans will also be more likely to give us free yards as they are one of the most heavily penalized teams in the nation. And of course we already detailed Mark Sanchez's inconsistency when it comes to making good decisions. Put all of these things together and I'm feeling a lot better about our chances on January 1st.
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Rose Bowl Tickets for sale
We have two tickets together in the PSU alumni section for the Rose Bowl. Face value will do, I think they are 175 each.
by dr kill on
Dec 26, 2008 9:19 AM EST
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The One Factore You Are Forgetting...........
USC DOESN"T WANT TO BE THERE PLAYING ANOTHER SLOW BIG 10 TEAM!!!!!
Not my words. I don’t understand this whole idea that teams play down to the competition when they “don’t want to be there”. Maybe I am naive, but I know when I was in high school……..even if I didn’t feel like playing that night after the first hit I knew I didn’t want to get embarrassed in front of everyone. I always wanted to show everybody what I could do even though our team was literally 0 for the last half of my Sohphomore year and entire Jr. and Sr. years. I would think the USC players feel the same way. Why would they go out and lay an egg in front of 90k in the stadium and millions on TV. I just can’t see “not wanting to be there” impacting the game after the first hit.
Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.
by ech2os on
Dec 26, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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Yes, and yes.
I agree, Eric. I read as a kid some article on Ted Williams, where the beat writer asked him why he was suiting up for the season’s last few games, when the pennant was clinched long ago.
His answer: “There’s some people here today who have never seen me play.”
That always stuck with me. Whether wrestling or playing 3rd, I always wanted to show something that strangers could take home, and hopefully tell someone about ‘that one kid’.
If USC can’t focus after that first jolt, I’ll be amazed.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on
Dec 27, 2008 5:06 PM EST
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I like it . . .
USC doesn’t want to be playing this game. They will be flat.
Penn State always prepares well for bowl games. Anthony Morelli had his best game ever a couple years back against Tennessee.
Penn State has a lot of great senior leaders who want to close out their final game on a good note. As long as Penn State wins the turnover battle, I think they will beat USC.
by CDRS on
Dec 26, 2008 10:24 AM EST
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I have to disagree...
They didn’t want to be in the Rose last year against Illinois either, but dominated them from start to finish. They have quite a history of showing up for big games.
True, Penn State definitely has a history of rising to the occasion, to the point of sometimes winning games they have seemingly no business winning (this isn’t one of those games, but just saying). But Morelli was something like 16-25 for ~200 yards and 1 TD in the Outback…
USC also has several senior leaders that would love nothing more than to end their careers on a win to cement one of the greatest 4-5 season stretches of all-time.
All in all, should be an AWESOME game with most stats being close enough to equal, except for PSU having an edge in special teams and penalties. I am going to look at the 1st quarter very closely. I think if we come out firing, we win (screw all that Carroll-is-the-best-2nd-half-coach nonsense)…and if we come out flat in the 1st quarter, God help us.
LET’S GO STATE!!!!!!!!!!
by jimbo2psu on
Dec 26, 2008 10:41 AM EST
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Sacks
Project Mayhem anyone? Would love to see a turnover on a sack.
by Rockin on
Dec 26, 2008 11:17 AM EST
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yeah, the sack stats kind of jumped out at me too
the tone of the game is set at the lines. this gives me some real hope for psu. get to sanchez, rattle his cage, and watch him turn into morelli (regular season edition).
any word on the officiating crew? i saw usc takes quite a few penalties.
http://glassesofjoe.blogspot.com/
by psudrozz on
Dec 26, 2008 12:14 PM EST
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That could be huge
The Big Ten officials will most likely let them play more than the PAC-10 officials. We all know how bad holding was let go this year in the Big Ten. On the flip side, the PAC-10 officials were the ones that cost Washington that game against BYU because the kid flipped the ball over his shoulder after scoring a touchdown. They’ll call a much tighter game. That could benefit us because it will mean more penalties against USC, but then it might hurt us because we won’t get away with things we’re used to getting away with in Big Ten play.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Dec 26, 2008 5:44 PM EST
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CFN on JoePa contract extension
http://cfn.scout.com/2/824565.html
Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
by wookieeman on
Dec 26, 2008 6:47 PM EST
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You forgot another vital stat for the list!
You need to add a line for victory versus Oregon State, just for fun, and give us a two symbol advantage for it.
by dawsonPSU10 on
Dec 28, 2008 1:24 AM EST
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This is about what I was "expecting" from the stat comparisons
but maybe that’s because I’ve been looking at the stat rankings for the top 10ish teams pretty religiously for the past month or so, and why I think we match up well against any team in the country, and would put us as favorites against anyone but Florida or USC. And of course, if we were to play Florida or USC it would be in their back yards (in either the MNC game, or the Rose Bowl), which gives them even more of a boost. I still think this game is VERY winnable for Penn State, and as everyone is saying, a lot will depend on how the teams come out firing in the first quarter/half.
One potential advantage Penn State might have is that pretty much ALL of the media attention is going to how great the USC defense is, but very little has been said about the Penn State defense. I don’t know why the #4 defense (scoring) in the country is all that much worse than the #1 defense, especially considering it is facing the #14 defense (opposed to the #11 defense…both difference in rank of 10). Now I know that the rank isn’t quite as meaningful as the raw values for points per game, etc, but it is a pretty good indication that this should be a VERY close, hard fought game.
by The JuggerNitt on
Dec 28, 2008 2:25 AM EST
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Re: Stat Comparison
You forgot a category on the “Rose Bowl Stat Comparison” chart for “Team Speed.”
Penn St. will find out just how hard it is to move the football when wherever it is, there are three, four, five or six SC defenders around it waiting to make the play. Speed is more a factor in the Pac-10, not as much in the Big-10 (more of a power football league) Team speed is what seems to always overwhelm Big-10 teams when they come to the west coast. The weather is better out west, so speed is more of a weapon, especially in the passing game. Maybe those uniforms just make Penn. St. ‘look" slow.
Penn State’s win over Oregon St. was at home ,just like USC’s win over Ohio St. was at home. I don’t think you can compare those two games.
Havili being out hurts USC’s offense more than his stats point out. If Penn St. can run on USC like Oregon St. did and Stanford (in the first half) and rattle Sanchez then they have a chance. If not, I see another SC blowout Rose Bowl win.
by bbigjohnson on
Jan 1, 2009 6:17 AM EST
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