BSD Staff Predictions: The Rose Bowl

by Kevin HD on Dec 31, 2008 4:13 PM EST in Game Previews Comment 49 comments

Rosebowl_medium

The time for garbage stories from the LA Times are over. The game in finally upon us and, as is the BSD custom, we offer up our expectations.

Mike says...

In the lead up to this game nobody gave Penn State a chance. Their reasoning is three fold. A) The Big Ten sucks B) USC owns the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl and C) USC's defense is the OMG GRATEST DFENSE EVAR!!!

A and B obviously have no bearing on this game. Penn State is not going to lose this game because Ohio State laid an egg in the last two National Championship games unless we trot out Troy Smith and Ted Ginn and start James Laurinaitis at middle linebacker. And because the Buckeyes were busy off getting destroyed in the National Championship game, USC hasn't even been playing the Big Ten champions in the Rose Bowl the last two years. So again, their wins over Michigan and Illinois don't really mean much of anything in this game.

When I compare these two teams this season they really match up pretty well. Yes, USC has a great defense, but they can be scored upon. Stanford scored 23 points. Oregon State, a team we held to 14, scored 27 on the Trojans. So it can be done, and I would put our offense up against anyone's in the country this year. I'm not saying we're going to hang 50 points on the board, but scoring in the 17-24 range sounds pretty reasonable.

What people are overlooking in this game is how well Penn State's defense matches up against USC's offense. Penn State doesn't have the gaudy rankings like USC has, but take away a late touchdown in a blowout against Oregon State here, a bad first quarter against Michigan there, the 11 points a bitter Mark Dantonio ran up on our third team defense in the closing minutes of the Michigan State game and our numbers look just as good. Meanwhile, USC's offense has struggled at times and while it is loaded with Heisman type talent, Pete Carroll hasn't been successful in getting them to play as a cohesive unit.

So at the end of the day this game is going to come down to turnovers, penalties, special teams, and intangibles. In the first three areas Penn State excels while USC is just average. Advantage Penn State. As far as intangibles, Penn State has everything going in their favor. USC players have openly saying they don't want to play in this game. They would rather be playing for the National Championship or the Fiesta Bowl against Texas. I scoured the USC blogs and newspapers looking for their perspective on the Rose Bowl the past few weeks and mostly I found a lot of talk about coaching changes and the NFL draft. USC has been dealing with a lot of distractions. But Penn State is a team feeling disrespected and really hungry to prove they deserve to be mentioned along with the best teams in the country. And Joe Paterno is the best when it comes to preparing for bowl games. Advantage Penn State.

This game is going to be really close. I think the defenses will hold both offenses in check and this is going to be a low scoring game. It's going to come down to a late penalty or turnover to decide the winner. It's too close to call in my mind, so I'll go with the good guys. And the score will remind us about the last big bowl game we played against a top five opponent.

Penn State 14, Southern California 10

RUTS says...

Does this matchup ultimately come down to a battle of motivation versus talent? Nobody can question which team has the better athletes, but how seriously has USC taken its preparation for the game? A look at USC's biggest wins shows that they beat a Beanie-less Ohio State team that was done in by its own mistakes, lost to Oregon State two weeks after the Beavers were destroyed by PSU, squeaked by mediocre Arizona, struggled at home against a decent Cal squad, and didn't really impress against UCLA. Perhaps it could be chalked up to USC's occasional ability to play down to its competition, but if you're a Penn State fan or player, the Trojans shouldn't scare you.

Penn State absolutely must be able to run the ball directly at USC. We're not a big east-west team to begin with, but if you recall the USC-Oregon State game, the Beavers took their speedy little running back and repeatedly sent him up the gut with great success. Could Stephfon Green turn out to be the surprise star for the Lions? If USC stuffs the Penn State running game, that means more dropback passes for Daryll Clark, and that means all sorts of blitzes from the Trojan defense. If we can't keep USC honest on defense, we're positively screwed.

Penalties could be a huge factor in the game -- USC racks up penalty yardage like it's their job, while Penn State is one of the least-penalized teams in the nation. I don't expect either team to score in the high 20's without a defensive or special teams touchdown. It'll be close for a while, but I can't help thinking that USC's overall athleticism wins it for them on a few key plays in the fourth quarter. We'll be in the game, perhaps until the end, but the valiant effort is likely to fall short.

Southern California 24, Penn State 20

Kevin says...

I really like this game because I think it allows Penn State to play their game and win. There aren't any major adjustments or things they haven't seen before. Yes, USC is the most talented team Paterno has faced, but reports of their divinity are largely exaggerated.

The thing that I think will be the most interesting is how Clark handles the pressure the USC defense is sure to apply. Things never seemed to reach consistent during the Iowa game in large part because the offensive line wasn't playing like themselves (further complicated by frigid weather and high winds, something that probably won't be a problem tomorrow). The line needs to give him time. Also, and this is important, Clark absolutely cannot be afraid to run the ball. He seemed to really dislike doing this during the season, wanting to prove he can throw, but he has to take what is given to him. Similarly, I worry that the coaches will be afraid to run him because injury=catastrophe.

So the best case scenario is an game similar to the one we played against Ohio State. Solid special teams (no missed kicks this time, of course), no turnovers, and eliminating the big play. These games are nerve wracking and often very frustrating to watch, but I like the strategy here.

This game means a lot to the seniors and there is no way a negative outcome will have anything to do with a lack of effort. Paterno has shown, even when forced off his feet, very good at preparing for bowl games. Based on some of the previews we've run here, I'm not convinced USC has any decisive edge in talent. Their defense is probably a little stronger, but I think the other side of the ball is advantage Penn State. I think the determination and focus will be the difference.

Penn State 16, Southern California 14

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Comments

D. Will

throws a td pass. Nits win 20-17

I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.

by spakajewia on Dec 31, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

USC

USC’s defense will be recognized as the best thing since sliced bread by ESPN. Mark May will orgasm in his prediction, and Penn State will win 24-21. Mark May will defend himself by saying the referees played a part/he actually knows nothing about college football.

by raimman on Dec 31, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2 out of 3 ain't bad

I think we can play with anyone in the country and we can definetly win this one. As long as the sun and pretty girls don’t distract our guys we will be ok. I would say something like Penn State 28 -USC 21.

P.S. Mark May sucks so bad that I’ve now become a Lou Holtz fan.

by markpsu on Dec 31, 2008 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you should

prob change your first name too.

http://glassesofjoe.blogspot.com/

by psudrozz on Dec 31, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's the worst thing about Mark May

is that I see Lou Holtz look so intelligent and coherent in comparison to Mays that I’ve almost started to respect Holtz’ opinions. Cognitive dissonance means more negative points for Mays.

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 31, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

18-14?

6 Field Goals or 2 TDs and a pair of safeties?

You find out life's this game of inches. And so is football.

by BleedingBlue4Psu on Dec 31, 2008 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nine safeties.

I think we give Jeremy Boone MVP if that happens.

by Cairo on Dec 31, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just left kickoff luncheon

PSU fans were loud and we were doing “We R PENN STATE” cheers. USC fans were almost silent. I think we can make the Rose Bowl our stadium. Will be interested to hear if we are overpowering with our loudness.

by Rockin on Dec 31, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

difference in fans

PSU is a mix of Pittsburg and Philly fans, with some NY thrown in there.

I can’t think of more dedicated set of fanbases. These people know their stuff, and are very passionate about their teams.

USC games are more of a social thing. You know how you see students on cell phones at beaver stadium and not paying attention? Imagine most of the student section doing that.

http://glassesofjoe.blogspot.com/

by psudrozz on Dec 31, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I kind of confused by the 18...

6 FG’s?
2 TD’s, 1 2-point conversions, 1 FG
1 TD, 3 FG’s, 1 Safety?
9 Safeties?

I think our defense cancels out their offense, their defense cancels out our offense, a D-Will Touchdown is the difference in the game.
17-13 PSU

by VVeRPennState on Dec 31, 2008 4:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops.

Swear I hit the 6.

3 FGs and a TD.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 31, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats no fun

I was kind of looking forward to Penn State scoring 9 Safeties, that would be a fun game to watch

by VVeRPennState on Dec 31, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember the last time we only scored safeties...

6-4. not a fun game to watch. I was front row student section for that one…

You find out life's this game of inches. And so is football.

by BleedingBlue4Psu on Jan 1, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since it doesn't really matter if I'm wrong . . .

because who knows . . . maybe a totally uninformed, completely unjustified prediction will get me a job on an ESPN halftime show, I’m going out on a limb.

I think USC is pretty overrated. I look for us to have a first quarter, possibly, entire first half that scares us all and makes us moan as we go to open another beer, but then settle down and start to dominate the game, a couple of “quick-strike-they-never-knew-what-hit-them” tds, followed up by an effective ball-control running game for another score or two. Think of being the anti-Ohio State of the past two BCS games. Somewhere approacing the Michigan State kind of game.

PSU all the way baby, 35-17

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Dec 31, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

SC – 17
PSU – 28

Zug – 88

by SweepTheLeg on Dec 31, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PSU 27-19

Throw it to Zug!

by ReadingRambler on Dec 31, 2008 5:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Two great defenses

can end up scoring as well, but they won’t completely shut down the offenses either.

45-31 PSU

by AdamShell on Dec 31, 2008 5:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PSU 28-13

I can’t think of any coach who prepares their teams for bowl games better than Joe Paterno. USC and most everyone else has taken us lightly and that bites the Trojans in the butt. After a shaky first half, PSU pulls away.

by jaredprebish on Dec 31, 2008 6:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

why can't us more?!!!!

psu 27
usc 21

http://glassesofjoe.blogspot.com/

by psudrozz on Dec 31, 2008 6:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Much love to the Philly reference.

And agreed-why can’t us more.

by MainLion on Jan 1, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I will personally...

.. buy each of you a Joe Pa butter sculpture if you guys hold USC under 20. That said, I’ll be rooting for you.

by eleventy on Dec 31, 2008 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sweet

i really want a butter sculpture of joepa!

by amandakt on Dec 31, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I too would like a butter sculpture!!!

Now I really hope we hold them to under 20, while also scoring more than 20 ourselves.

by The JuggerNitt on Dec 31, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

make it margarine and you have yourself a deal.

It doesn’t go bad, or melt, so your fantastic statue will last a lifetime

by Air Raid 84 on Jan 1, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RUTS stole my pick

I was going to predict USC 24 PSU 20. I really really hope this is one of the cases where I’m dead wrong though

by WPIALkid22 on Dec 31, 2008 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

PSU 30-USC 24

Oh yeah, all your song girls are belong to us BEEEAAATTTCCCHHHES

We just needed a couple players, a couple people to buy in to the fact and we were able to do it. --A.Q. Shipley

by psu on Dec 31, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey Mike!

You forgot a very important part of your prediction – that’s the piece I can’t wait to watch.

by IcersGuy on Dec 31, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pac 10 Rules..

USC 28 Penn St. 0

Your girls are ugly. And your football team is playing the true #1 team in the country. You won’t score. In football, that is. And in life.

by oski4u on Dec 31, 2008 8:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

?

Who let the troll in?

"gotta love the HD"

by biscoiv on Dec 31, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not to put too fine a point on it...

but you, sir, are an asshole. Cheap shots at our lovely ladies and how we won’t score in life. Uhhh… right… douchebag.

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Dec 31, 2008 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

teams don’t lose to Oregon State. Fool.

by MainLion on Jan 1, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess someone had to...

represent the classless fan from your fanbase. Way to take one for the team. I guess it wouldn’t be a big game without some doucher talking about how our women are ugly and we, as a fan base, are incapable of scoring. For the most part, it seems like USC fans are alright though. Mostly just this guy that is an ass.

By the way, we happened to put up 24 on your defense. True, the game was out of hand early and from the 2nd quarter on was never really in doubt, but far from a shutout while our star running back was injured and couldn’t play most of the game. Congrats on the win.

by jimbo2psu on Jan 2, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that guy is a Cal fan, no less... can you imagine?

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Jan 2, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All I know is.........

if you are in Cali for the game and you see a car explode into flames……..don’t help the people inside because they will likely sue you if they aren’t satisfied with your effort.

Cali………fucking up the US since 1968. You may find yourself in Jail with Jerry, Elaine, Kramer, and George.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-good-samaritan19-2008dec19,0,4033454.story

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Dec 31, 2008 10:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

California...........

Folks enjoying the smell of their own farts since 2007.

http://www.southparkzone.com/episodes/1002/Smug-Alert!.html

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Dec 31, 2008 10:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my prediction

USC 21 – PSU 17

Still, though I think USC will win, I think the game will be close enough that mistakes (like penalties/turnovers) could easily change things.

by Laaaaazzz on Dec 31, 2008 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

After watching the Sun Bowl ....

PSU 2 – USC 0

Maybin sacks QB for a safety !!!

by ageing lion on Jan 1, 2009 12:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

USC turnovers..

lead to a PSU 34-23 win

by PSUgavemeAnAlcoholproblem on Jan 1, 2009 12:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cab I just point out that USC hasn't lost a game by more than a touchdown in about 7 years?

Just saying for all you double digit predictors.

by Laughing Stock on Jan 1, 2009 1:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OK - you pointed it out.

What’s your point?

'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'

by Pete the Streak on Jan 1, 2009 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

odds

odds are it’s a close game. Prior record doesn’t point to blowout in either direction.

Happy new year! Good luck (but not too much) today.

by DC Trojan on Jan 1, 2009 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thats super interesting

however…you also play garbage teams in your OOC, and you lost to oregon state…here let me say that again to let it sink in OREGON STATE….go home and jerk off to sanchez and carrol, having a cute little “team meeting” secluded in the locker room….sorry i know that was a touch vulger, and i’m sorry…however, the truth needs to be stated.

by Air Raid 84 on Jan 1, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Our OOC opponents have the best winning record of the top 8 in the BCS poll (that includes PSU) and, didn’t include any Div 1AA teams (like PSU scheduled, Coastal Carolina). Come out of the closet and you’ll feel better about your pitiful self.

by WE ARE SC on Jan 1, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

easy fellas.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Jan 1, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Poetry isn't dead

Hugs to you too, Air Raid 84.

by DC Trojan on Jan 1, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

o god...

i hate it when i’m right…too bad the ol’ coach can’t make an inspiring speech to rise up the team. U guys could hang with washington or washington st. or something…

by oski4u on Jan 1, 2009 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i realize

you’ve got a bruin in your photo, which doesn’t give you much room to talk in the first place, but why don’t you make like the SC kicker, do yourself a favor and OD on some half-assed pain pill and throw yourself off of a nearby cliff. i bet if SC lost you’d have kept your mouth shut or be licking our nuts saying how great of a game it was

For the glory

by lionalum05 on Jan 1, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs