I realize there are some thing that should probably be done differently, math wise. Most of them involve impracticable amounts of time that I unfortunately don’t have today.

Your analysis is right on, but there are two other factors to consider:

-Oregon was down to a third-string QB for their game. They couldn’t get anything started on offense. Some of that was attributable to USC’s defense, but you have to imagine a significant factor was their unfortunate QB situation. They showed last night that they can put away a top quality team.

-Ohio State had no Beanie Wells. It’s a different team with him in there.

Time for analysis is past. The talking heads at ESPN won’t be on the field tomorrow. It’s time to walk the walk.

Nobody can say what will happen, but I do feel confident, if the boys are on their game tomorrow; you’ll have to play the best game of the year to win, and that may still not be enough.

This defense is for real. They are fast, big and mean. You haven’t played anyone this good, this year.

This is college football, I LOVE IT!

Good Luck

I agree State will be our biggest test. On balance we haven’t played anyone better. Should be a great game.

ROSE PRESENTED BY CITI — Penn State 17, USC 14

There’s really no reason to pick against USC in a big game, especially one in Pasadena. But there’s something special about this Penn State team: the way they overcame offseason turmoil, the way they blitzed through most of the season and the way they made improvement in every facet of the game. So after a lot of thought, I decided not to play it safe in the Rose Bowl Game. USC has to lose one of these games, and Penn State has what it takes to beat the Trojans, especially on defense. There won’t be a lot of points, but special teams proves to be the difference for Penn State. Derrick Williams breaks off a big return and specialists Kevin Kelly and Jeremy Boone both step up as the Lions prevail in a defensive struggle.

———————— Off-Passing -————- Off-Rushing -——————- Off-Points
Penn State -——- 36.84 -——————— 62.17 -———————————- 15.65
USC -—————- 49.85 -——————— 52.32 -———————————- 11.42

———————— Def-Passing -———— Def-Rushing -———————- Def-Points
Penn State -——- 28.90 -——————— 63.79 -———————————— 12.91
USC -————— 73.19 -——————— 63.19 -———————————— 17.65

What are these numbers you ask. They indicate the difference between how many points or yards the team got on offense and what their opponents averaged giving up for the first set. The second set shows how many fewer points or yards the team gave up compared to what their opponents averaged getting. In other words, Penn State averaged scoring 15.65 more points in a game than our opponents averaged giving up each game. I didn’t remove each team’s game against its opponents. I pulled these off my Deltas spreadsheet available at the following:

As an Excel spreadsheet: http://home.comcast.net/~elihurozen/delta.xls

As a web page: http://home.comcast.net/~elihurozen/Delta.htm

As you can see, USC’s scoring defense is slightly better than ours in this & their passing defense is better, but our scoring offense is better than theirs. Obviously, this doesn’t prove anything, but it certainly gives you a different perspective. (Note my data doesn’t include any bowl games yet.)

From espn.com:

Carroll, open in his admiration for Paterno, said, “He’s a remarkable person, you know, to be able to carry this kind of spirit for so long through his career. He might be the living image of Benjamin Button here.”

The reference to the current film about the man who ages in reverse sailed over the graying head of Paterno.

“The living example of whom?” he asked.

After someone explained, Paterno said, “I’ve seen two movies in the last 40 years: E.T. and Titanic. I walked out of Titanic, I felt like I was in the bath.”

USC does not have arguably the best defense of all time.

Yeah, Im fine with that.