Can The Rose Bowl Winner Earn A Split National Championship?

by Kevin HD on Dec 6, 2008 9:26 AM EST in Football Comment 14 comments

Hope is a good thing...

It's "Championship Saturday", and while the point spreads in the two relevant games are both in double digits (Florida -10, Oklahoma -16.5), there is still a chance that the Rose Bowl could end up a face-off between the #3 and #4 ranked teams in the AP Poll.

Here is how this goes down (and yes, for the record, we are probably dreaming here):

Alabama beats Florida and holds a solid #1 in the newspaperman's poll.
Missouri beats Oklahoma and hopefully exposes a gap in the impenetrable Big XII hype machine. Keep in mind Missouri is Texas' "big win" outside of the three-team circle of death that has dominated the college football discussion for an entire week now (wow, if feels like longer than that).

So that sets up the #3 vs #4 in the Rose Bowl. We're halfway there. Looking into the future:

Whoever wins the Rose Bowl is going to have to look very good doing it.
Texas, who slides into the MNC game without even playing in their conference championship game, has to win in a fluky manner. Use your imagination.
For the first time since 2005, the Big Ten is going to have to show up in their bowl games. Ohio State will have to dominate a probable match-up with Missouri in the Fiesta Bowl. Michigan State will have to regroup from their Happy Valley shellacking and beat Georgia in the Capital One Bowl.
Other things that would help: an Oklahoma loss in the Cotton Bowl to Mississippi (this is how much better the SEC is than the rest of the us: Mississippi lost to Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina yet still finished 2nd in the SEC West, 4th overall); the Big Ten winning the Alamo Bowl and Insight Bowl against their respective Big XII opponent (we are probably looking at rooting for two of these three teams: Minnesota, Northwestern and Iowa).

This all leaves the AP voters in an interesting position. Besides a good excuse to go rogue, they have to at least consider the fact they are not contractually mandated to vote for the BCS MNC Game winner (the reason Paterno gave up his Coaches' Poll ballot, by the way). In a lot of ways they have to see a chance to instigate a power struggle between their once highly respected, now largely irrelevant poll and the new kid on the block BCS formula.

Or maybe I'm looking too much into it.

On a more practical level, the voters have to second guess their pre-bowl opinions. The Big XII was largely considered the most elite conference, but if the Big Ten runner-up (Ohio State) beats the Big XII champion (Missouri), followed up by at least one more Big Ten > Big XII bowl game, that may change. An SEC loss in the MNC game, along with a Capital One loss to Michigan State, and the "our conference is better than yours" debate is no longer holding anyone down.

The Rose Bowl winner all of the sudden becomes a very trendy pick...and who doesn't love to be trendy?

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Comments

Love the premise, but...

I only see this coming to fruition if USC beats PSU, not the other way around. Can you imagine something like this benefitting Penn State at any point in world history, let alone during a non-undefeated season? I’d love it, but I can’t see any reason to hope here.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 6, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another possibility

So what if, for argument’s sake, Alabama beats Florida, Mizzou beats Oklahoma, and USC beats UCLA? There is a slim possibility that the coaches will take a look at USC and Texas and realize that USC won its conference and Texas didn’t even win its division. Now, you can argue until the cows come home whether or not a team deserves to play for the MNC when it hasn’t won its conference, but you can’t argue that that’s not going to stick in a few voters’ minds. Given the above scenario, UF and OU are out of the MNC picture, and then perhaps Texas is, too. Who plays Alabama in Miami? Do we still get to play USC in the Rose Bowl? They’re next in line.

Actually, this scenario holds for any situation in which Mizzou beats Oklahoma. If UF wins this week, would you have play the Gators?

I know I probably opened up a huge can of worms with this one, but you can’t deny that it’s definitely within the realm of possibility, seeing as lack of a conference title has supposedly, according to the media, “doomed” two teams in the last two seasons (Michigan and Georgia).

by tomatpsu on Dec 6, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think the “didn’t win their division” argument will hold a lot less water in a three-way tie that was decided by the BCS standings – especially since Texas beat the team that got the nod in the tiebreaker and the team that won the CCG. It worked against Georgia last year because one of the teams they were competing with for the second spot (LSU) won the conference that Georgia plays in. If Missouri beats OU, Texas will be the only realistic contender from the Big XII.

by SpartanDan on Dec 6, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if

Florida loses if they’ll even drop below us, given the bias in favor of the SEC, though 2 losses has to look bad when there’s other teams with 0 or 1.

by Joe 96alum on Dec 6, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd bet Florida would be

at the top of the 2-loss heap, right above Ohio State.

by jimbo2psu on Dec 6, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts...

I thought the winner of the BCS “National Championship” gained sole possession of the title National Champion, thus the reason for having the national title game. Especially if it pin an all around 1 vs. 2. With that said, how can there be a split?

by MrBrianPSU on Dec 6, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As much as I HATE the "what if" game

It is sometimes quite fun. If all that happened (why not throw in Oregon St. winning their bowl game) and we got ourselves a controversey!

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Dec 6, 2008 1:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This has "9/11 Conspiracy Theory" written all over it.

And even those theories might be a little more believable than this. I realize though the boredom level has to be hitting record high levels while awaiting the Rose Bowl.

Happy Hour Valley - Where the beer flows like wine

http://happyhourvalley.wordpress.com/

by Happy Hour Valley on Dec 6, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

'college football's unshakable primacy in Southern culture'

Wow, crazy wsj article. I guess its primacy in Mid-Atlantic culture is rather shakable, tho they’d only be guesses as to by what. But we can tell it’s not by a Redskins-Ravens Rivalry.

You’re writing’s getting better and more fun to read.

pax et amor

by jtothep on Dec 6, 2008 3:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, this post was kind of a waste of time in retrospect.

Although an OU win over Florida, and OSU win over Texas, could still cause some BCS problems.

And actually, between those two games and the Rose Bowl, the BCS matchups aren’t half bad…I mean it sucks we still have to watch an ACC-Big East game, but whatareya gonna do.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 7, 2008 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ACC vs Big East

At least they play each other and aren’t tainting any other bowl game.

by mgr135 on Dec 7, 2008 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

amen... I am still gonna pull for Cincy just cuz...

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Dec 7, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So stay with me....

Big Ten goes 6-1 (say, Minnesota loses to Kansas to keep this marginally realistic) which includes wins by MSU/Iowa over “super tough conference” SEC Foes. And Northwestern beating pre-season top 10 Missouri. Also includes tOSU clobbering Texas on the Buckeye’s second home (the Fiesta Bowl).

Among that PSU beats USC by 17+ points and looks terrible strong.

Texas Tech beats Ole Miss is a close one.

Utah beats Bama in a close one.

SEC and Big 12 otherwise do poorly (Oklahoma St losing to Oregon, Vandy losing to BC, LSU losing to Ga Tech, Nebraska losing to Clemson, East Carolina over Kentucky). Okay, maybe not all of those, but some/most.

Now, you’ve got the Big Ten looking great and the SEC and Big 12 looking comparatively poor. The Rose and the Fiesta have no competition for viewers and everyone sees the Big Ten teams play well. You have a couple days lag before the championship game after he other BCS games and the “analysts” start talking about “maybe we discounted PSU too much”/“Maybe the Big Ten is pretty strong”/“Should the AP split the vote?”

Florida wins the BCS bowl on a fluke play. The AP writers think “do they deserve the title?” Plus there’s the boredom factor of another SEC title and even Urban Meyer again. Then people realize they lose at home to an Ole Miss team that ends up 8-5 and will be unranked (meanwhile PSU lost on the road to a suddenly decent Iowa team that is 9-4 and will end up ranked after beating an SEC team in a bowl).

Overwhelming sentiment to see JoePa get another title and PSU eeks out a slim win in the AP poll. Nittany Nation rejoices. Hey, it could happen.

Okay, maybe I should stop drinking

by Laaaaazzz on Dec 7, 2008 10:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hope lives!

I think even 50% of these things happening and we have a real life controversy. You are giving the voters too much credit, I think. They are really only going to look at the top couple of games and then, because of our loss, Iowa.

If PSU, OSU and Iowa all win convincingly, coupled with a Bama close game or loss…the voters will have nothing better to talk about leading up to the MNC than a split title.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Dec 8, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs