Odds Are, You'll Have Fun!

by KevinHD on Jun 11, 2008 8:00 PM EDT in Football

Full Big Ten futures are out and you might be a little surprised how things shake out. I don't know if I'm concerned or simply confused by the fourth spot.

Keep in mind that odds aren't a list of who Vegas things are the best teams: some public perception issues are built in. In addition, because of the importance of each game in college football, a teams schedule, including venue and time of year, are of the utmost importance. Obviously only in-conference games are accounted for:

1. Ohio State +120 - Nothing to see here, really. Michigan debuted as the Big Ten favorate last season at +120 so the actual payout isn't a shock (compare this to USC's -300, which is hillarious). PSU is at home with two weeks to perpare. Michigan is a rivalry game, so yada yada yada, but you can't escape the fact that it's in Columbus and Ohio State has a huge talent advantage. Their biggest concern is probably a night game at Wisconsin, but you have to think they are still likely to win (based on what we know now, anyway...all it takes in one blocked FG to change things).

2. Wisconsin +250 - Ohio State, Penn State and Illinois are all at home for the Badgers this season. Their toughest road test is probably at Michigan early in the year when RichRod will still be trying to set up his offense. They bring consistency to the table and, while this does appear like a bit of a bad value, I'm not sure they aren't the #2 team right now.

3. Illinois +400 - This represents the opposite of my opinion abut Wisconsin. Morelli simply handed them the PSU game, they were beat at home by Michigan and somehow lost 10-6 to Iowa. The Ohio State game was a great win but with the blow out against USC you have to wonder if that was simply a matchup issue. Besides that, I think the loss of Rashard Mendenhall is understated.

T4. Penn State +500 - While I think being behind the Zookers is questionable, the loss of Lee, competition at QB and a brutal October are all things that will inflate the payout. Our analysis is obviously ongoing but between 2nd and 4th isn't totally unreasonable.

T4. Michigan +500 - Ya, I don't really get it either. New coach, no QB, the loss of one of the best running backs in school history, who ran behind (without question) the best lineman in school history. The general consensus after the spring game was that things are still quite shaky. Wisconsin and Illinois are weeks three and four, well before most would expect the new offensive system to settle in...I'm baffled.

I'll do everyone a favor and simply list the rest:

6. Michigan State +1000
7. Iowa +1200
8. Purdue +1200
9. Northwestern +1800
10. Indiana +3000
11. Minnesota +6000

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Comments

It's hard to imagine this

but somehow ISU, Duke and Mississippi all have worse odds than UMinn to win their conference.

Black Shoe Diaries

by KevinHD on Jun 11, 2008 9:51 PM EDT reply actions

One correction

Illinois lost to Michigan, not UW.

Also, I disagree with MSU, I think they should be placed ahead of UM as well.

"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."

-Tony Hunt

by Cpiritual27 on Jun 11, 2008 10:26 PM EDT reply actions

good catch

not sure how i missed that, i actually remember watching that game (not always the case).

I agree, and maybe even Iowa and Purdue…although to be honest I’m not quite sure of what to make from MSU. At times they appear to have gotten over their signature collapse (the actually came back against us), but then you still have a classic FAIL against michigan last year and an OT loss to NW.

I guess we’ll find out rather quickly with a game at Cal, but then they managed to get E.Mich, FAU, ND, Indiana, Iowa and NW all in a row, even if they are simply average there is no reason to think they won’t be 6-1 by mid october.

Black Shoe Diaries

by KevinHD on Jun 11, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha

”...even if they are simply average there is no reason to think they won’t be 6-1 by mid october.”

I think we call that “Minnesota Syndrome.” Well, maybe not last year…

I’m really pulling for MSU against Cal, and I think they stand a good chance. Air Force put up 36 on Cal with a 1D offense, and even though MSU won’t be as deep at WR/TE, they still will have an experienced QB. That should afford at least some semblance of a multidimensional offense.

Moreover, MSU has actual RECRUITED players. Nothing against the service academies at all, but they’re not exactly pulling in 4* and 5* kids. I just think that Cal is soft, and MSU should be able to run all over them…EVEN on the road. Just my two cents.

I’d love a sweep of our Pac-10 games, but I’m sure Oregon will wipe the floor with Purdue. I know too many people who think the Pac-10 deserves two BCS bids every year…it’s getting pretty old to hear!!

"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."

-Tony Hunt

by Cpiritual27 on Jun 12, 2008 8:19 AM EDT reply actions