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Southern Cal to Cal Poly: The Big Ten Out Of Conference Schedule

Matt Hays at Sporting News is doing a fairly solid review, conference by conference, of out of league games.  While most of the work involves a simple compilation of schedules and comments like "[insert D1aa team here], really?", seeing a team by team comparison is still interesting.

Big Ten
1. Michigan State: at California, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Notre Dame
2. Michigan: Utah, Miami (OH), at Notre Dame, Toledo
3. Purdue: Northern Colorado, Oregon, Central Michigan, at Notre Dame
4. Penn State: Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, at Syracuse, Temple
5. Ohio State: Youngstown State, Ohio, at USC, Troy
6. Illinois: at Missouri (St. Louis), Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, at Western Michigan (Detroit)
7. Northwestern: Syracuse, at Duke, Southern Illinois, Ohio
8. Iowa: Maine, Florida International, Iowa State, at Pittsburgh
9. Wisconsin: Akron, Marshall, at Fresno State, Cal Poly
10. Indiana: Western Kentucky, Murray State, Ball State, Central Michigan
11. Minnesota: Northern Illinois, at Bowling Green, Montana State, Florida Atlantic

The one thing that really stands out is the fact that the three traditional Notre Dame opponents, Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue, come in one-two-three.  I understand Notre Dame usually plays the role of a legit opponent, but keep in mind they were one of the worst teams in D1a last season.  Notre Dame's appearance will improve due to one of the softest schedules in the program's history (San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, North Carolina, Pitt, Navy and Syracuse), but winning crap games isn't going to change the fact that you are returning an offense that didn't score a touchdown until their fourth game of the season. 

Star-divide

Penn State comes in at #4.  It's troubling to think that a schedule comprised of a fringe Top 25 team and three lay-ups will get you in the 64th percentile but I guess that's how things go these days.  Although to be fair, I would rather play the current PSU schedule than any four team lineup that includes USC, so I'm not sure that Ohio State really belongs at #5.  A gimmie is a gimmie, and Oregon State at home is not the USC Trojans on the road. 

I would take a bit of a different approach.  Trying to discriminate between Montana State and Maine doesn't seem to actually matter on the field: both teams are going to get walked all over.  What is more interesting, I think, is to try and evaluate the schedule based on an average team's chances of getting through undefeated.  The obvious problem here is "what is an average team?", but rather than define that I'm just going to get to work and hope it doesn't become a problem.

The three toughest games appear to be, in order: at USC, vs Missouri, at Cal.  That would put OSU, Illinois and Michigan State at the top.  I think the next spot needs to go to Purdue, with games against Oregon and at ND, but after that it gets a little trickier.  The next decision that needs to be made is this: does playing at ND and against a not-horrible Utah team pose a bigger threat than vs Oregon State and at Syracuse?  Oregon State did beat Utah last year, handily, but the Orangemen won two games last season.

The remaining five teams combine to play three BCS opponents: Duke, Iowa State and Pitt.  Iowa actually plays two of these teams so I suppose they get the nod as best of the worst.  From there you might as well list the teams alphabetically, although it is probably more fun (and maybe even more insightful) to rank them based on the number of characters the school name of their opponents: Wisconsin (33), Northwestern (44), Indiana (54), Minnesota (59).

So without further ado, your BSD Big Ten OOC Rankings:

1. Ohio State
2. Illinois
3. Michigan State
4. Purdue
5. Penn State
6. Michigan
7. Iowa
8. Wisconsin
9. Northwestern
10. Indiana
11. Minnesota

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

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Penn State over Michigan

because Oregon State beat Utah last year?

Keep in mind that they aren’t playing last year’s teams. Utah returns nearly everyone, and Oregon State loses their entire defense, their leading rusher, and two of their top 3 receivers.

At Notre Dame is head-and-shoulders a tougher game than at Syracuse, and I would be surprised if Utah is much better than the Beavers this year.

by sullivti on Jun 25, 2008 10:10 AM EDT   0 recs

Yeah....

Utah is supposed to be pretty good this year. ND was horrible last year, but Syracuse was probably even worse, and the Ireeesh at least have some talent. So, I’d say Michigan should be ahead of us.

Next’s year OOC schedule is rancid.

by speedomike on Jun 25, 2008 10:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

all good points

I would have no problem switching it, and maybe I should, but I just found it difficult to tell whether Utah and ND are actually going to be able to beat anyone.

Utah is a trendy bcs buster but I’m not sold. They don’t return very many starters and are totally depleted at LB but do have a decent O-line to work with. While they may be better than Cuse, both of these teams fall into the “you really shouldn’t ever lose to them” category. I agree, though, that Utah probably does have a better squad than Cuse, but it is a home game for Michigan.

I think that leads to ND-Oregon State, and for the record I am not on the “return to glory” bandwagon. There really aren’t words to describe how terrible this team was last year, and while the O-line will show improvement they can’t get any worse. They also only return 6 guys on D and, while much is being made of the new D-cord, I have to think there will be growing pains with both new guys and a new system on defense.

All that being said, I’m not really sold either way, I’m just arguing the other side of the coin. PSU and Michigan could show up in either order and I really wouldn’t have a problem with it. My list relies (maybe a little bit too much) on the strength of the strongest team on the OOC schedule, and right now I think Oregon State is better than anyone Michigan plays.

by Kevin HD on Jun 25, 2008 10:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agree on ND.

Although Phil Steele has them as his #1 MOST IMPROVED TEAM!!! With VHT Jimmy Claussen (PS#1) leading the way!! But, they lost to Navy and Air Force last year. At least Syracuse beat Louisville.

I think Coastal Carolina should be a factor here too. I mean, we’re going to have our 2nd string in by halftime. I expect to see an all Suhey-Ganter backfield by the 3rd quarter. Not that Toledo and Miami(OH) shouldn’t be cakewalks for Michigan, but I think that could be enough to be the tiebreaker here.

Regardless, this is an interesting way to look at it. Imagine if it was still Ark State instead of Oregon State.

by speedomike on Jun 25, 2008 12:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great work Kev

Interesting, I don’t agree with OSU at the top or the Michigan/PSU dynamic, but great stuff.

by Maize n Brew Dave on Jun 25, 2008 10:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Gut Check..........

Which list of opposition strikes you as being more difficlut:

Cal
Notre Dame
Oregon
Oregon State
Syracuse
USC
Missouri
Pitt
Fresno State

Or

Clemson
Texas
West Virginia
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Hawaii
Miami
Florida State
Arizona State
Louisville
North Carolina State
UCLA

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Jun 25, 2008 11:25 AM EDT   0 recs

To be fair....

If you are going to list teams like that, you have to at least account for Notre Dame x 3 and Syracuse x 2 for the Big Ten teams. Without doing so, it’s intentionally making the Big Ten list shorter for effect. I have no idea if the SEC has repeat opponents in the list (except Clemson should be twice, I think).

Also, it’s minor, but you should add Iowa St to the Big Ten list.

by Laaaaazzz on Jun 26, 2008 10:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Doesn't doing that.........

make the schedule look more pathetic ? Those teams were two of the worst in the country last year. The SEC does have a few opponents played twice, but I was just listing the teams once. Not for effect. The Big 10 list is short because the schedule is terrible from a name recognition standpoint. Listing Clemson twice and ND twice makes the SEC OOC look even stronger than not listing them twice. Anyway…....I am a Big 10 fan, but I can see where “outsiders” laugh at the schedule.

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Jun 27, 2008 9:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wait for it....

what, michigan doesn’t play appalacian state again?

JD

by psudrozz on Jun 25, 2008 11:29 AM EDT   0 recs

OCC Toughness is all relative...

Which Big Ten teams will have the easiest time winning all of their OCC games?
Indiana and Minnesota will have a tougher time winning then say Michigan or Penn State.

by ageing lion on Jun 25, 2008 12:22 PM EDT   0 recs

Floppin' Irish

Are the Golden Domers still considered division 1?

Pat Devlin in '08

by Nick7 on Jun 25, 2008 3:31 PM EDT   0 recs

Purdue OOC

I wouldn’t knock Central Michigan very much. They are a dangerous team that if they have any kind of defense at all could very well beat Purdue and Indiana both. The fact they played us twice last year means they are familiar with Purdue, and that scares the crap out of me.

Ball State can certainly give Indiana fits as well with its offense.

by BoilerTMill on Jun 27, 2008 9:29 AM EDT   0 recs

Eastern Michigan is no Toledo.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994

by jesse. on Jun 27, 2008 10:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that is a lose-lose-lose

i dont know how you can even be excited about that as a fan, only bad things can happen.

by Kevin HD on Jun 27, 2008 10:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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