Odds Are, You'll Have Fun: Several 2008 Lines Released

by Kevin HD on Jul 21, 2008 1:34 PM EDT in Football

In what is usually one of my favorite days of the summer, Sportsbook released their "Games of the Year" odds for the 2008 season. Think of it as Vegas' preseason poll, only much better than any other preseason poll because (1) any error in judgment will cost them millions of dollars, and (2) they don't have the opportunity to change these much without taking substantial risk through 'middle' exposure.

Penn State had five lines on the list:

Penn State -8.5 vs Illinois

Penn State +3.5 vs Wisconsin

Penn State -9 vs Michigan

Penn State +11 vs Ohio State

Penn State -8 vs Michigan State

There are a couple of things that stand out. For starters, Vegas is not hot on a Mendenhalless Illinois (and neither am I). A home game is typically worth about three points, but because it's Madison and because it's at night, a shift of 3.5 is not unreasonable. As a result, Vegas sees Penn State and Wisconsin as (roughly) a neutral field pick. The Michigan and Michigan State lines sound about right. Neither team is expected to make much noise at the top, however both squads are talented enough to win games they shouldn't.

What is really too bad is the Ohio State spread. Eleven is very big, especially considering Penn State is picked as the second or third best team in the conference. There is a lot of Ohio State hype this offseason, but unfortunately it appears to be at least somewhat warranted.

Oregon State had two lines released:

Oregon State -1 vs Oregon

Oregon State +11.5 vs Southern Cal

Not much here because the USC line is so big and Oregon is hard to judge now that they are faced with replacing Dixon. Regardless, neither line is especially surprising.

Around the Big Ten:

Southern Cal -5.5 vs Ohio State

Wisconsin -3 at Fresno State

Notre Dame -3.5 vs Michigan

Ohio State -4.5 at Wisconsin

The OSU at USC line started leaking out last week around 3.5. The move isn't really encouraging. While the home field shift is probably a little stronger in this game, this matchup represents a fairly big contest for the conference. To make things worse, the Wisconsin game is a total trap at -3, meaning an upset looks even more likely than I previously thought. If the Big Ten loses both of those games we are looking at nuclear war type fall out from the MSM.

The Notre Dame-Michigan game is a bit of a toss up, ad Irish due to home field. The national championship odds were released curiously high for RichRod's new team, so seeing them dogs to Notre Dame brings some balance back into the betting world.

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I hate to say this...

but I think the Michigan line is way off. I think we’ll win that game, but not by more than a touchdown. Those games are always close… I think Ilinois should be lower too; I don’t see what Vegas and others do in expecting them to be so much worse. We shouldn’t underestimate juice williams.

In terms of lines I’d actually bet on, I like +3.5 against Wisconsin, and +11 against OSU, because I’m a glutton for punishment. I also think that MSU line will go up by the time we play them, so it might not be a bad one to jump on early.

by spakajewia on Jul 21, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Lines = Perception

There is a lot of Ohio State hype this offseason, but unfortunately it appears to be at least somewhat warranted.

I don’t think A proves B here. More realistically, the statement that makes sense to me is: “tOSU is getting lots of preseason attention and the line has been set according to that perception.” Appearing in the last 2 nat’l championship games certainly doesn’t hurt that perception. The line needs to be high, otherwise a boat-load of action would be taken on Ohio State.

by Kunk on Jul 21, 2008 3:24 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

very true

and that definitely happens, but they have to remain at least somewhat honest to defend themselves against sharp betters.

Point well taken though, it’s important to remember these lines are subject to public bias…there is a reason you never bet on ND.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Jul 21, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Evil future lines!

Man, I feel for this hard two years ago. Penn State was +15 at Notre Dame and I bet the house on it. That…that was not smart.

-- Run Up The Score http://runupthescore.wordpress.com

by Run Up The Score on Jul 21, 2008 4:49 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Still don't understand the OSU hype....

OSU has proven over the last 2 years that they are very capable (and very good) at losing. They lost to a 3-loss Illinois team last year that really wasn’t all that good. And let’s not forget the last 2 NCGs.
If OSU gets blown out against USC early in the season (a la last year’s Oregon beatdown of scUM), I think it will be hard for them to make that ground up in the polls.
And let’s not forget one thing – this is FOOTBALL…players get hurt all the time. A key injury to their QB or RB could spell the end for the bucks – look what happened to Oregon without Dixon. There may be 11 players on the field at a time, but many times it’s only 1 or 2 of those players that make the difference. Case in point – I am sure 2005 would have been much different had MRob gotten hurt early in the season.
Personally, I think tOSU will be the 3rd best team in the Big 10 this year, behind us and Wiscy. Wishful thinking – maybe. But also very possible – definitely!
Just my $.02.

I bleed Blue and White.

by Horse N Buggy on Jul 21, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

You dont have to understand the hype....

but you do have to understand the reality that even though OSU lost the last two NCG’s, they still were the best team in the conference. Since that was the case, and they bring almost everyone back, the question is are PSU and Wiscy that much better than last year or is OSU going to be worse for some reason?

by Holy Buckeye on Jul 21, 2008 10:05 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I mean, I'm a homer too...

...but c’mon, that’s an absurd statement. OSU came into Happy Valley and beat us down like we haven’t been in some time. They were much, much better than us last year, and they return more players.

Moreover, they recruit better, and are better coached (in my opinion). Lastly, unlike us, they typically prove their worth in their OOC scheduling, regardless of the last two NC games.

Count me in the minority that can see them beating USC in the early season.

Lastly, we are MUCH better than UW. I really can’t understand their hype, not at all. If you stop their run game (which we did quite easily last year), they have no offense. They’re the overrated B10 team, in my opinion.

"We heard all that talk all week about the SEC and their speed, but we knew personally that they weren't nearly as tough as us."

-Tony Hunt

by Cpiritual27 on Jul 21, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

PSU/OSU

Last year Ohio State had an excellent game plan, which they executed flawlessly. They got pretty much every break, and played their best game of the season. In many respects they also had better players. We lost. However, I don’t think they were that much better than us last year, it just happened to be their day. As well as they played against us, they lost to Illinois, at home. So, I’d have to say we’ve at least theoretically got a chance.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994

by jesse. on Jul 22, 2008 9:33 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Also

We had a ton of injuries on defense which many people overlooked. Hayes, Odrick, Sales and Davis were a few guys out. I don’t think Koroma or King were 100% either.

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Jul 22, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I agree that...

Wisky is way hyped too. PSU stopped their run last year, the D-Line IMO is in the “top 3” in the country this year…soooo that’s a big one going into a night game there this fall.

Old School... MEETS New School!

by BlueWhiteLife on Jul 23, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

PSU/Wisconsin

The fumble on the first possession killed them. Under the best of circumstances, Wisconsin is not the kind of team that can go down two or three scores and get back in the game. If you look at what I said about Ohio State against Penn State, you can say the exact same thing about Penn State against Wisconsin.

That was our best all around game of the year, we certainly kicked their ass, but I don’t think the relative ease with which we did it is representative of how much better than them we were.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994

by jesse. on Jul 23, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs