The Age Card

by Kevin HD on Jul 22, 2008 2:45 PM EDT in Football

It's a fairly common exchange of phrases. Every couple of months a reporter asks Joe how long he'll be around, every time he responds by mumbling some form of "three four five more years" and everyone just shrugs and says "fine".

So with the increased retirement banter of this particular offseason comes an increased discussion about how Joe is hurting the program. The most common criticism, one brought up behind his back by opposing coaches and through our TV sets by know it all ESPN analysts, is the number of recruits that are being driven away by his obviously eminent retirement. Three Four Five Years is probably not long enough to see the class of 2009 through there four years of eligibility.

But why is this relevant? How is Paterno's future any less certain than the other 119 coaches in D1a?

What follows is a list of coaches listed as "on the hot seat" by, who else, coacheshotseat.com.

Coach	School	W%
Ty Willingham	Washington	31
Kirk Ferentz	Iowa	56
Nick Saban	Alabama	54
Mike Stoops	Arizona	37
Greg Robinson	Syracuse	20
Tim Brewster	Minnesota	08
Ron Prince	Kansas State	48
Randy Shannon	Miami	42
Charlie Weis	Notre Dame	56
Ralph Friedgen	Maryland	64
Steve Kragthorpe	Louisville	50
Dave Wannstedt	Pitt	46
Gene Chizik	Iowa State	25
Phillip Fulmer	Tennessee	77
Bobby Johnson	Vanderbilt	29

Now Saban has a little room because of his recruiting, but even with top 5 classes he needs to win the conference in the next three years. Weis is somewhat protected by a very long contract and, like Saban, will probably be able to turn it around because of the talent he brings in. He is also graced with the ability to make a BCS bowl game without having to actually beat anyone. Fulmer should probably be removed because of the seven year extension he just signed.

It's not that unlikely that several of these names will be out of the coaching ranks before Paterno. Besides that, there are probably another four or five guys who are an Appalachian State away from bowing out early as well.

Going further, the guys on the other end of the spectrum aren't necessarily safe either. Coaches like Richt, Pinkel, Rodriguez and Petrino are always a risk, especially once they start peaking, to jump for the NFL.

So when you hear things like this:

Still, some schools hold little back during the recruiting wars and do play the Paterno age card.

''In my top five, three of the [schools] mentioned it,'' four-star linebacker Mike Yancich from Washington, Pa., said.

In what way?

''They mentioned coaching stability,'' Yancich continued. ''They do mention it for recruiting purposes because they don't quite have the stature and the popularity that Penn State has, so they have to use that against them.''

Yancich would not disclose which three schools used the negative tactics. The others in his top five reportedly were Pitt, Michigan State, West Virginia and Connecticut.

....

''The big thing they're saying is, 'How would you relate to [Paterno]?' and 'Will he be there?''' [Gateway High School head coach and former Nittany Lion receiver Terry] Smith said.

So in light of the fact that Whanstash could be out in 6-18 months, and MSU and WVU have both changed coaches in the last two years, how can anyone take these threats seriously? Just within the Big Ten, the 2009 season will start with exactly three coaches who have been around since pre-2005...and that is assuming Ferentz will still be a state employee after a drop in performance and a bit of a troubling couple of months "off the field" (two more stories just this weekend). Now Paterno obviously isn't going to coach forever, mortality has its limits, but the "age card" simply doesn't hold up. It didn't for the dozens of now-retired coaches who used it in the past, and there is no indication that even the freshest of regimes will last any longer than Paterno might going forward.

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Trying to spin as an advantage

Penn State is at least taking the right approach with their recruits on this point, by telling them that whoever the next coach is, it’ll be someone who is very familiar with the standards of the program. If you’re operating under the premise that any coach can be gone at any time, at least PSU kind of has something to fall back on.

On the other hand, some recruits and parents will believe anything they’re told, and there’s no fixing stupid.

-- Run Up The Score http://runupthescore.wordpress.com

by Run Up The Score on Jul 22, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Also, vote for Penn State's helmet right now!

Losing to Clemson is not an option.

Vote here.

-- Run Up The Score http://runupthescore.wordpress.com

by Run Up The Score on Jul 22, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

this would be embarrassing

although head choice is questionable.

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Jul 22, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Paterno Bracket?

Jesus, we better not lose in the first round. Is this up on BWI and FOS?

by speedomike on Jul 22, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

i think PSU is losing

because they are showing a picture of #14.

This guy ruins everything.

Pat Devlin in '08

by Nick7 on Jul 22, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Seriously.

Couldn’t they show a pic of Puz with blood streaming down his face. I think that is every bit a part of the helmet’s appearance.

by Screen Name 20 on Jul 23, 2008 8:21 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Someone needs to move this to front page

We can’t have this hidden within a stream of comments!

Settle it on the field!

by PSUncle1981 on Jul 23, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

ESPN must be...

“fixing” this! Somebody, anybody ( like that pic of Poz ) should be the poster-boy!

Old School... MEETS New School!

by BlueWhiteLife on Jul 23, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Garbage

We lost to Clemson, 47%-53%.

I blame Jay and Morelli.

Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.

by 06Lion on Jul 24, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Sucession Plans???

As I was reading a portion (that’s all I could handle) of one of the Pittsburgh’s sportswriters articles on how Penn State needs a succession plan the same thought occurred to me. Joe will be around longer then a number of coaches, quite possibly even Wanny, so where is Pitts succession plan? It seems to me half the teams in 1A ball need a succession plan. The difference between Joe and them is Joe has proved himself a winner and now some are wondering if he can still do it. Many of the other coaches have never proved themselves, including Wanny, so how long are their perspective schools going to wait before they get the heave ho? I hope they have a succession plan to tell their recruits.

by ageing lion on Jul 22, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Least Common Denominator........

Joe has officially surpassed the average life expectancy of the US male. Doesn’t matter to me…..but all things equal, that is “against” the program. I would like to think it wouldn’t bother me, but like everything else in life you wouldn’t know until you were faced with the decision. Its like talking to people about a game and they say….......OH YEAH TAKE PSU AND THE POINTS NO DOUBT ABOUT IT…....then you say…...ok…..I am going to put a dime on them just because you said so…....and next thing you hear is well don’t do that. Anyhow.

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Jul 22, 2008 9:57 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

I don't get your point...

Life expectancy varies with age and is a “mean” value. The one used in the table is based on someone being born today. As you age you have survived some of life’s pitfalls and can expect to live even longer. I went to one of the sites that will calculate you life expectancy based on current age. I guessed at some of the questions for Joe and his life expectancy came out to be 99. That’s another 14 years. Whether they will be a quality 14 years is another question.

by ageing lion on Jul 23, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Sure.

My point is that its easy to sit here and say what we would do or what would or wouldn’t bother us if we were being recruited by Penn State. Its quite another to actually have to make a “life altering decision” like where am I going to play my College Football. You can’t just quit and transfer all over the place like some lost hippie. So, unless I am in love with Joe Paterno and Penn State football or my parents are statisticians capable of understanding and believing in the reasoning you provided above, the reality is that Joe is VERY old and the perception is that he could go at any minute. People feel comforted by knowing that the other coaches are could be around for another 5 years…...Joe’s age makes that possibility less likely than say…...the stache’s in the minds of many. Not that what I just said is earth shattering news.

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Jul 23, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Have a look...

Brent Musberger and Mark May discuss this exact subject (albeit also with Bobby Bowden thrown in there, too), on College Football Live, in the ESPN video below:

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?categoryId=2564308&brand=null&videoId=3500735&n8pe6c=1

by tomatpsu on Jul 23, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

the problem is

that we spend a lot of time thinking about this and are Penn State fans. Its easy to argue that the coaches using this strategy against us are just as likely to be gone in a year as Paterno is. But, to a high school kid looking at a 40-something coach and an 80-something coach, it probably resonates a bit. Especially now that Joe and Spanier are having their private war over the contract situation.

by PSiriUs on Jul 23, 2008 7:23 AM EDT reply reply 0 recs

but there really aren't any safe bets, even with the 40-somethings

saban, nutt, richrod, petrino, ect. Just this week the events at Iowa will probably lead to Ferentz moving on in the near future. They are either too good to stay, too bad to stay, or subject to bad luck, bad decision and bad PR.

With Paterno you’ve had the age issue, but hardly any of those other things. He’s not going to the NFL, he’s not leaving you high and dry for Michigan, he’s not covering up (allegedly) criminal investigations, and he’s shown the ability to ride out poor seasons. How many other guys can say that?

Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries

by Kevin HD on Jul 23, 2008 8:36 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

GREAT RESPONSE KEVIN!

...now, please forward your synopysis onto the AP & tell them & all who read it to “shut the F…-up!”

Old School... MEETS New School!

by BlueWhiteLife on Jul 23, 2008 9:10 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Agreed

Great comment. Joe Paterno is probably the most secure coach in America. Spanier has declared Joe may coach without a contract as long as he wants to. All Joe has to do is have a press conference saying he wants to coach next year and there is nothing Spanier can do about it. What other coach in America can say that?

So when these other coaches put doubts in these kids minds about Joe’s future, they should ask that coach what assurance he has that he will be coaching in his present position four years from now?

Mike
Black Shoe Diaries

by BSD on Jul 23, 2008 9:35 AM EDT up reply reply 0 recs