USA Today Preseason Top 25

by speedomike on Aug 1, 2008 2:10 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Bam! Cue the "preseason polls are meaningless" comments.

Our boys come in at #22. Expected replies:

-"Seems about right"

-"What does it say when we return 17 starters and are only 22nd? How the mighty have fallen."

-"I love flying under the radar!!!!1!!!!1!!! Let's git 'em boys!!!"

Not a whole lot of shockers here. LSU seems a little high. I don't think Illinois will finish ahead of us but whatever. Not sure if Michigan deserves to be ranked. I think we could be a little higher but I'm not complaining too much. I can't help but wonder how much of these polls are just based on last year? Seems like that happens a lot....see: Penn State being ranked going into 2003.

Thoughts?

I just noticed that every fanpost of mine involves some sort of ranking.

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21 spots to go....

Seems about right for now…uncertainty at the QB….and the loss of Sean Lee puts us down about 8 spots or so.

It doesn’t matter where you start, it is where you finish….

The loss of Baker and Taylor are a non-issue and gives the rest of the D-Lineman Studs a chance to play a year earlier.

Pat Devlin in '08

by Nick7 on Aug 1, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

22 is not great.

I’ve posted on this before, but generally the teams with a serious chance at a BCS title have a top 10 ranking going into the season. There’s no sour grapes here because nobody expected that kind of a gift ranking. A preseason ranking of 20th or worse suggests this season is one with a glass ceiling, i.e. going undefeated and finishing 3rd or 4th. A single loss eliminates us in all but the most unlikely scenarios.

by gumbercules on Aug 1, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's not necessarily true

We statred 2005 unranked and got all the way to three, with a loss. Frankly, had we started third and went undefeated we still would have finished third. If win all our games we’ll be just fine.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994

by jesse. on Aug 1, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2005 illustrates exactly my point.

In the 2005 example, losing to Michigan was irrelevant re: PSU’s final ranking. But the season did highlight the importance of starting as high as possible; preseason polls clearly mattered that year, as every team below #2 had a glass ceiling. As a result of the system we employ, the further down the poll a team starts, it suffers a higher chance that two higher ranked teams run the table and pigeonhole it out of a spot in the BCS title game. These probabilities accumulate linearly with ranking.

Let me sketch out a weak mathematical argument. Every BCS conference is represented above us. If we were to get boxed out, it would almost certainly be by two teams from different BCS conferences as in 2005. It is possible to create a weak predictor of the probability of a team going undefeated. The Money Line Journal has USC at a 15% chance. Based on this, let’s assume that the probability of a BCS conference producing any undefeated team ranked higher than us is 20%, which is a little high for the ACC and is low for the Big 12. The odds of this occurring once or less this year (i.e., PSU gets to the show) are (0.80 ^ 5) + 5x(0.15)x(0.85 ^ 4) = 0.74. So ignoring BYU, there’s a 1 in 4 chance that if we have a miracle season, it will be just like 1994. Not huge, but significant, and earlier in the season it might loom.

I’m making all sorts of crazy assumptions here, but both 2004 Auburn and 2005 PSU waltzed down this path. There’s nothing we can do but win games, but I hope I’m not citing this comment when the final BCS rankings come out in December.

by gumbercules on Aug 1, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

every team below #2 had a glass ceiling

That did not play in the Pac-10 or Big 12.

by gumbercules on Aug 1, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we go undefeated...

we’ll have gone un-fu@#ing-defeated. Who cares what our final ranking is? We will have beat Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon State, Wisconsin, Illinois and Coastal Carolina for god’s sake. What else do you need?

If you want to be national champs, win all your games. That means you Georgia, and your pathetic “we don’t control our own destiny” sniveling coach. If you win all your games and don’t win the title, you can look yourself in the mirror and say you did the best you could and you got screwed, and be proud. If you don’t, you have only yourself to blame.

If you want to lose a game and be the champ, watch the NFL.

We’re about seven wins away from needing to worry about the polls. Let’s take care of business now and bitch later.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994

by jesse. on Aug 1, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree completely. This is just idle talk to pass the time until the end of August, and maybe an attempt to make Penn State fans think about something other than how brahsome it is jumping around to Zombie Nation.

by gumbercules on Aug 2, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For whatever reason

Mark Richt making pre-excuses for a loss in a game he has not even played yet really rubbed me wrong. Les Miles did the same thing last year, and it seems to work.

It’s like the SEC coaches have banded together in an effort to convince everyone that having a undefearted season in that league is impossible.

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,

by jesse. on Aug 3, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tuberville

I’ve seen many cite the temper tantrum that Tommy Tuberville threw in 2004 as the source of all of the SEC chest pounding; I wouldn’t be surprised if the perception of the conference has become a regular item at the annual SEC coaches’ meeting. It played as big a role as any in LSU getting selected for the title game.

But yeah, two losses are two losses, Georgia had no business entering the discussion, and Richt can only blame himself for Georgia’s absolute demolition at the hands of Tennessee last year. I would’ve preferred no team be awarded the MNC.

by gumbercules on Aug 3, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

If we would not have lost to Michigan, we would have finished higher without a doubt.

by MrBrianPSU on Aug 2, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How?

For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,

by jesse. on Aug 3, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take #3

I definitely prefer being underrated. Regardless of the arguments about pre-season poll rankings and future BCS bids, I think Penn State fits the underdog role perfectly. It gives the team a little more motivation and added desire to prove everyone else wrong. This is the type of mentality (along with the leadership of MROB) that resulted in an Orange Bowl win. This is the same kind of mentality that we’ll need to win a national championship, if it can happen this year. Call me a homer, but I think it’s in the realm of possibilities.

Oh OhOhOh Oh Oh!

by doctadas on Aug 1, 2008 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs