I just bet $20 on Penn State to win the big ten; if they do, I win $120.  Now, I clearly don't think Penn State winning the Big Ten is a lock, otherwise I would've bet more than $20. On the other hand, I do think they've got a good chance to do it, in fact, I'd wager they have a better than 6 to 1 chance of winning the conference. Here's why:

1. The offensive line.  Penn State's offensive line will be the best in the big ten, barring injury.  Despite, or maybe even because of, the increasing reliance on the spread offense throughout the big ten, the conference is still the premier smash-mouth football conference in the country.  The offensive line is the most important aspect of any football team at any level; in the big ten, that importance is magnified.

2. The defensive line. Like the o-line, Penn State's d-line will dominate games.  They'll give the linebackers opportunities to make big plays, and pressure opposing quarterbacks, bailing the defensive secondary out until that group gets going.  Moe Evans is going to be fierce; he's got an outside chance of winning the Bednarik Award.

3. The Posse, Phil Taylor, and Sean Lee.  While I'm more devastated by Sean Lee's injury than most, and as susceptible as any to the disappointment that comes from reading about off-field trouble by Penn State players in the paper, I think all of these let-downs might actually lift the team up.  Strength often results from adversity, and the players in the locker room right now have a lot to prove about themselves.  As athletes and competitors, they know no better place to prove themselves than on the field.  My bet is that Sciorotto, DC and the new linebackers and defensive tackles are going to look at this season as a chance to prove the world wrong.  I bet they will.

4. Joe Paterno.  And finally, it's going to be Joe's last year. Maybe or maybe not, but I think that these guys know that this is Joe's last best chance to have a winner.  Maybe someone's telling them that and maybe somebody isn't, but I think the team  leaders realize the potential importance of this season for Paterno.  Moreover, I think Joe realizes the importance of it, too, and he's going to make damned sure that he puts his team in the best possible situation to win.

Now, can anyone convince me to lay on the 50-1 odds of winning the national championship?