Nitt Picks is Fluffy Again
It seems you can't read a Penn State preview this year without half the article reminding you Paterno is old and his contract runs out after the 2008 season, but if you scroll down through this article in the Chicago Tribune you find an interesting statistic.
The Nittany Lions' 29-8 record during the last three seasons is third-best in the Big Ten. Of the conference's 11 teams, only Ohio State (33-5) and Wisconsin (31-8) have better records. And no Big Ten team can match Penn State's 3-0 record in bowl games during that span.
Say what you want about about Joe's age and his control on the team, but the fact of the matter is only two teams in our conference have better records the past three years.
Say Wha?
Whenever the Bleacher Report shows up in my google alerts I roll my eyes and click on it anyway. And typically I'm treated to uninformed opinions like those of Brendan Monaghan who predicts Penn State will finish seventh in the conference this year. Behold his reasoning.
7. Penn State
Something is rotten in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. While the Nittany Lions played unremarkable football on the field (they won all of one road game, in Bloomington, Indiana), their off-the-field conduct gathered plenty of headlines.
Six suspensions last season and two dismissals before this season suggest that the legendary coach Joe Paterno may have lost control of his program.
Indeed, with a lot of talent gone, particularly on defense, this looks to be another disappointing season in State College.
Taking the place of the inconsistent and much-maligned Anthony Morelli will be Daryll Clark, who reminds some of 2005 star Michael Robinson. The wide receiver corps looks strong, with seniors Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood.
There are big questions, however, on a defense that has been hit by graduation, dismissal, and injuries. A bowl game looks within reach, even if it’s in Detroit.
Detroit? If the best we can manage is the Motor City Bowl for a team returning 17 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year I will personally knock on Joe Paterno's front door and ask him to resign.
Questions Questions Questions
The Reading Eagle posts Ten Big Questions for Penn State this season. Predictably, two questions center on Paterno's future and two are devoted to our off the field issues. but still a good read with some nuggets on the quarterback competition and Stephfon Green.
Ron Musselman of the Post-Gazette puts together a Top Five List of his own. Short space so only one question about Joe and one about off the field issues in this one. But there is one thing I disagree with here.
2. A depleted defensive lineThis was supposed to be a position of strength. But now that former starting defensive tackles Chris Baker and Phil Taylor have been kicked off the team, the front four is not nearly as strong as it once appeared to be. The Lions are solid at defensive end with Maurice Evans and Josh Gaines. Evans, a junior, was a one-man wrecking crew last year in his first season as a starter, compiling 12 1/2 sacks and 21 1/2 tackles for losses en route to earning first-team All-Big Ten honors. Gaines, a fifth-year senior co-captain, is a two-year starter who has been steady. The tackle spots will be anchored by redshirt sophomores Abe Koroma and Ollie Ogbu. Junior backup Jared Odrick started seven of the first eight games last year before suffering a season-ending injury.
I would hardly characterize our defensive line as "depleted". And while it's true that Baker and Taylor were "former starters", it's misleading to suggest they were at the top of the depth chart. Jared Odrick started every game before his ankle injury, and he was projected to be named the starter once he's healthy again. Abe Koroma and Ollie Ogbu also started a bunch of games for us last year so we're hardly hurting for depth in the interior of the defensive line.
Yay! Let's Talk Football
Kudos go to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review who consistently avoids the tired articles about Joe's age and our off the field issues and actually commits to putting out actual football articles once in a while. This week Sam Ross treats us to a look at the quarterback competition. The first half of the article is your typical "And in this corner weighing 225 lbs" stuff, but I found this quote from Paterno later in the article very interesting.
Paterno has said often in recent weeks that he had been urged by his son, quarterbacks coach Jay, to get Clark into games earlier in the season as a change of pace.
"I just felt uncomfortable doing that because Anthony had gotten so much criticism -- and a lot of it wasn't his (fault)," the elder Paterno said. "I was damned if I was going to let the fans dictate who was going to play quarterback."
You think he's talking about the dreaded "website mob" again? Who are these characters anyway?
We saw something like this a few weeks ago where Paterno almost came right out and said Morelli lacked confidence and Paterno felt he had to stick with him or else risk him falling apart.
The article goes on to suggest Paterno would be open to playing two quarterbacks this year, but can only offer this direct quote to back it up.
"I think you're talking about different animals," he said of the two situations.
Not exactly a definitive "Yes, go bet money in Vegas that we're playing two quarterbacks this season," but he didn't rule it out either.
Etcetera - Blog, Sweat & Tears takes a stab at piecing together the depth chart. Major highlights include Derrick Williams at WR instead of the slot, Clark starting at QB, Tony Davis starting at cornerback over Sargeant, and the starting linebackers are Gbadyu, Hull, and Sales.
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"I was damned if I was going to let the fans dictate who was going to play quarterback."
Why, because the fans wanted to win?
I’m not a Joe Paterno fan. I’m not an Anthony Morelli fan. I don’t care about their feelings, egos, or legacies. I want the entire Penn State team to win football games, and refuse to believe that Anthony Morelli was the best choice at quarterback last year.
Sacrificing the good of the team to shelter a quarterback’s fragile ego is not a decision a competent coach would make. Sorry. The other 90+ guys on that team get up at 5:00 a.m. for workouts, too. That’s who Paterno should be loyal to, not one underperforming, tantrum-prone quarterback.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions
Also, I don't care about...
...the rumors that Jay wanted to pull Morelli, or Joe wanted to pull Morelli, or whatever friggin’ story they’re pushing this week. Joe’s in charge. He’s the control freak. He’s responsible for what happens on the field.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ll offer this up. Look at Juice Williams: he was pulled almost weekly and was still regarded as one of the team leaders by coaches and players alike. I agree Paterno was probably misguided here. If Morelli couldn’t handle it then that’s on Morelli, not the coaches. There were two well deserving guys right behind him that were capable of at least keeping things afloat.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Can't agree...completely.
The rest of the team has feelings too, which I imagine include disappointment at playing a crappy fourth-tier bowl in San Antonio instead of Orlando or Tampa.
Regardless of whether Morelli could handle it, it’s the coaches’ job to give their players - all of them - the best chance to win. And it’s not even the on-field performance that I’m more upset with. Multiple sources said that Morelli threw temper tantrums constantly after losses, and infamously whined and screamed when Clark started getting first-team reps at practice. What coach in their rightful mind (1) puts up with those kind of antics, and (2) practically rewards them by continuing to let the kid play the most important position on the entire team?
And we wonder why the players don’t appear to have the same respect for Paterno that teams 10, 20 years ago did. It’s not always just “kids these days”.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
And, finally...
There’s no avoiding the off-field issues—either regarding Joe’s future or the disciplinary crap. No avoiding it. They’re distractions and will continue to be distractions. If the program itself won’t be proactive to end the speculation, the media and “website mob” will be more than happy to fill the dead air.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 10:20 AM EDT reply actions
Split personality
After reading the last few comments, I guess the part of you that’s a realist is back in charge again?
ESPN isn’t out to get us; Paterno is driving the program into the ground. Nothing’s sadder than destroying your own legacy – and that’s what’s happening now.
I think with all the new stuff adding to the old stuff, and a difficult quarterback choice (even for a coaching program prepared to make such a choice on the merits), we’re looking at the usual: lose to everybody we ought to, and lose one or two additional bonehead games. Alamo Bowl, here we come again.
bleacher report
it shows up in my RSS all the time and I don’t think i’ve clicked on one in months.
I mean is it even a real blog? Maybe someone can correct me, but my understanding is that it’s just a message board set up in a blog format. aka it’s garbage.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Morelli's fault?
If it wasn’t Morelli’s fault, who’s fault was it? The surrounding players? Galen and Jay Pa? Or (gulp), Joe’s?
Everyone else
Hell, Paterno blamed the wide receivers after the Illinois game, didn’t he?
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he did.
I believe we touched on this topic way back in the Illinois preview.
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 4, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
lets try this again
“No, I’m not considering a quarterback change. I think overall he played well. I think he’s got to get some more help. I think people have got to make some catches in the clutch….I think that’s the only part about Anthony; that he’s got to just shake that off and go on and make another great play.”
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
I blame Tom Bradley for not getting to watch the Lions in Tampa!
You can say what you want about Morelli ( and yes I do hold him soley responsible for two losses in his career – Illinois last year and OSU the year prior) but he didn’t cost us that debacle in East Lansing last year! That was all defensive coaching. We win Michigan State (which we should have up 21) PSU is 9-3 and ready to put their second whoop down on an SEC opponent in the Outback Bowl.
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?
i know you did it last year mike
but are you going to bring back the countdown, i loved the pics that came with that.
e.g.
TONY HUNT DAYS UNTIL PSU FOOTBALL

Debating it
It was fun last year, but I’ve heard people complain it fills their readers with garbage so I haven’t done it. I should say screw ‘em.
Great pic BTW.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
It was about this time last year....
that I first started reading this blog, and those pics got me so pumped up for the season.
I’m with gbd. PLEASE BRING EM’ BACK!
I feel like I need them now more than ever before.
"A setback is just a set up for a comeback." -Drew Brees
Mi-key!, Mi-key!, Mi-key!...
Old School... MEETS New School!
by BlueWhiteLife on Aug 5, 2008 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Bring it back!!
I want football. No more “Joe’s old, the kids are criminals” crap.
Give me color pictures of diving catches, big hits, crazy fans.
It’s only 26 days until kickoff – let’s get fired up!!
yeah screw em
it’s cool, it took about a week before I understood it last year. I ain’t too smart.
Boom goes the dynamite.
Not buying it
I don’t buy it! Very misleading because of our 2005 season! Joe is costing us wins and I’ve almost lost all repect for the man…........that’s without all the legal issues and his stubborness.
ooops
Player One: 1681 yards rushing; 17 TD’s
Player Two: 1631 yards rushing; 16 TD’s
Player One is Rashard Mendenhall. Player Two is the combined rushing statistics of Rodney Kinlaw and Austin Scott, which I think is fair seeing as Austin was the starter until just before the Iowa game.
My point is that the general consensus on the board is that we lost a crappy quarterback and nothing special at the tailback spot. In reality, we lost the statistical equivalent of a first round draft pick at tailback, and a quarterback that threw for over 2,600 yards and completed nearly 60% of his passes.
The pressure is on Clark, Devlin and Royster this year. For Penn State to improve on last season they are going to have to be very, very good.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
to be fair
YPC – Kinlaw – 5.5, Scott 4.4
YPC – Mendenhall – 6.4
That’s significant. And in addition, Royster averaged 6.3 ypc on 82 carries.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
That's true
The YPC is significant, and goes along way toward putting Mendenhall in the first round versus Kinlaw not getting drafted at all.
Royster’s numbers cut both ways though, because even if you assume that Evan can make up all 1,600 yards and increase the YPC, wich is certainly possible, but a bold assumption. Stephon Green still has to make up for Royster’s 513 yards from last season. And again, that’s just to get even on last years statistics.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
Don't forget...
that Clark is presumably going to get his share of carries/yards to take some pressure off the RBs.
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 4, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a fair point too...
I’m not saying that Penn State being better than last year is impossible; I’m just saying that it’s going to take a fair amount of production out of guys that have never had to carry the load before. That’s inherent to college football, but it’s sometimes over looked.
I do think that our expectations of Anthony Morelli and, were really high, and I think that magnified his failings beyond what they really were. If I’m doing anything here, maybe I’m just trying to temper the expectations on Clark et al, in the effort to get those guys a little leeway if things to don’t go perfectly right away.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
Misleading stats
I don’t like looking at total production stats without looking at the underlying numbers. It’s kind of like analyzing a pitcher based on wins or a hitter on RBI. Sure, Morelli put up some respectable total yard numbers and had an okay completion percentage, but wasn’t he like dead last in the Big Ten in passing efficiency? I mean, you said it yourself that the YPC is the difference between Mendenhall as a first round pick and Kinlaw not getting drafted.
I agree with your premise that it can be dangerous to make assumptions regarding what Clark, Royster, and Green will do. In fact, at this time last year a lot of people were expecting and LJ-like senior year from Austin Scott.
Well
1,600 yards is still 1,600 yards, you’ll take the season that Scott/Kinlaw had last year and call it a success every time. Penn State ran the ball pretty well last year. We’ll do well to replicate that success, and to improve on it is going to be tough.
As far as Morelli, I’ll open myself up to be proven wrong, but 58% completion percentage, 2,600 yards passing and 19 TD’s against 10 Interceptions doesn’t sound like dead last in the Big Ten in passing efficiency. And I’ll bet you a dollar that Clark does not [1] throw for more yards than Morelli, [2] have a better TD to Interception ratio than Morelli and [3] have a better completion percentage than Morelli.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
point is fair about expectations
but I think morelli’s 2007 expectations were more the result of his five-start rating out of HS and, more importantly, the somewhat sound game he played in the bowl game. His season numbers were good, but he struggled against tough competition.
Against FIU, ND, Buf, Ind and Temple: comp % 59.1, TD/Int 14/3
Against Mich, Ill, Iowa, Wisc, OSU, Pur, A&M: comp % 56.9, 11/9
I’m not trying to pile on, i agree with you on a lot of levels, but I have a really hard time believing that we will, even for a second, wish we had Morelli back as our QB.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Expectations
expectations were more the result of his five-start rating out of HS: We talk about recruiting alot, but one thing I know for sure, is that I don’t care how many stars a kid had once he puts on the uniform. I think you are absolutly correct that the high ranking caused the expectations, but I think that it’s proper to adjust your final opinion of the guy based on what he did in college, not what people thought he might do in high school.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
word
i’m not saying it’s right.
Another thing he had going against him, since we are on the topic, is the fact that he represented the Great Western PA Hope. I still remember the outrage when MRob was named the starter in ‘05.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
not that this is the end all
but he was voted league MVP by someone…coaches or media I think.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
And let's not forget...
...the multitude of fumbles at inopportune moments. Really, that’s where the criticisms of Morelli come into play. Sure, he passed for a lot of yards and had a decent TD-INT ratio for our system. But all of his turnovers came at horrible times in the game. A couple picks returned for TDs here, a few fumbles at the goalline there, and you end up with a much-maligned QB.
Respect for a QB relies on many intangibles that statistics just don’t acount for.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
Morelli
My problem with Morelli wasn’t his pass completion % or inability to throw a nice bomb. His problem was his inability to win the big game, and in fact lose the big game for us. In a tight spot you could count on him for a fumble or pick six. It doesn’t matter what your stats are if every time you get in the red zone you fumble, then to top it off get into arguments with the other teams fans. I will take a natural leader with worse stats over AM and thankfully that seems to be what we are getting.
Boom goes the dynamite.
by psu on Aug 4, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I've heard those criticisms before
The point in the statistics is showing that perception on Morelli’s performance is worse than the actual performance. Turnovers happen to everybody.
Intangibles that statistics just don’t account for. You’re right to an extent. Of course, Doug Mientkiewicz is one of the best "intangible" guys in the major leagues, but who gives a shit if he’s hitting .225? Darryl Clark may have much better intangibles than Morelli, but before that matters a damn, there is going to have to be some production there. Intangibles don’t complete 60% of their passes, and you can’t choke in a tough spot if you’re down by three scores.
It doesn’t matter what your stats are if every time you get in the red zone you fumble True, but we didn’t fumble every time we got in the red zone. Most of the time Penn State got in the red zone we scored, the offense was pretty efficient at it actually. The play you’re talking about happened at a terrible time, but at the conclusion of a tremendous effort by Anthony Morelli. It’s sad to me that what was almost the best play of Morelli’s career wound up being his worst.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
perception of MRob
Michael Robinson is the anti-Morelli in this instance because he is often glorified far more than what he earned from on-the-field performance. People fondly remember the final offensive drive of the 2005 Michigan game but forget that MRob was a fairly useless 19-34 with no TDs and a pick. And he was terrible against Northwestern that year, 17/36 with 3 INTs, but people only remember the Williams touchdown pass in the 4th quarter. His statistical production was a much better indicator of his true passing ability, and this is why he is a backup running back in the NFL, while statistics monster Vince Young starts at QB for the Titans.
One of the main shtiks of the blog Fire Joe Morgan is criticizing baseball GMs who constantly overvalue “gamers”, players who appear to come up huge in the clutch (Derek Jeter) but have average or poor statistics over players who perform consistently. It is the sort of mistake that occurs in college football all of the time.
Gamers
I think there’s a bit of a difference with overlooking sabermetric stats in baseball for things like “grit” as opposed to football. Football is a sport in which sheer will can make more of a difference than in baseball. I also think luck is more of a factor in baseball, and I think there are more underlying numbers in baseball that tell the true story. I’ll admit I don’t follow football statistics as closely as I do baseball, but I think there is a difference.
I don’t think Robinson is the anti-Morelli because not only did Morelli not do anything to be considered a “gamer”, his statistics aren’t impressive either.
But his statistics aren't good
I agree that intangibles are overrated, but Morelli’s numbers weren’t very good either. 8th in passing efficiency in the Big Ten sucks. He was 7th in the conference in completion percentage too. 6th in passing yards, 8th in yards per attempt, And when you throw in the fact that he also never made up for that with a big performace in a tough spot, and I’m not going to miss him.
Morelli
I really have no idea what Morelli’s actual statistics were beyond the season and career passing yards lists he ranks high on, and my point was more to deride opinions of players based on late-game turnovers versus heroic scores, rather than looking at their entire body of work. A fumble on the first drive hurts just as bad as one on the last. For whatever reason, people perceive the late-game turnover to be worse.
A note by SMQ suggests Morelli’s junior year was among the bottom quarter of the entire FBS in terms of passing efficiency—you’re not going to get me to stand behind a podium and defend him. Penn State’s passing game has simply not been good in recent history.
Well....
you’re absolutely correct. That fumble by Morelli on the 1st Michigan drive sealed our fate last year. So we can point to both late game and early game miscues that lost games for us!!!!
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 5, 2008 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I disagree.
A fumble on the last drive hurts far, far worse because you have no time to recover. It’s over. A fumble on the first drive, you have over 45 minutes to regroup.
24 DAYS 23 HOURS 56 MINUTES 23 SECONDS UNTIL OPENING KICKOFF
Tough to say.
A turnover on a final drive certainly has a more visible impact on the outcome of the game, and may be the final event that decides it. But I could suggest an equally valid counter: the effects of an early-game turnover may propagate into all subsequent drives, whether that be through sitting the player, poor starting field position, changing to riskier offensive strategies to come from behind, etc. A final turnover suffers from none of these drawbacks, because by definition it cannot influence the future.
The only way to actually back an argument here would be to analyze a large set of last year’s games, comparing total offensive points scored in games where teams turned it over early versus those which turned it over late. But Jesus, I need to get back to work.
Yep, different kinds of 8th's.
There’s an 8th for a statuesque dropback passer, which blows. Then there’s an 8th for a running QB who also gave you 800 yards rushing and 11 rushing TD’s.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
your points are good on an intellectual basis
But why is the perception that Morelli was so horrible (getting booed at the blue white game-after graduating) and Mrob was so great. Somehow Mrob was able to lead his team to BCS game and Morelli never got near one. Football is as much mental as it is physical and with a great leader that the team can believe in you just might win a couple of the games we lost last year. I cannot explain it any better than that, but everyone here is very glad to be getting a new QB this year.
Boom goes the dynamite.
by psu on Aug 4, 2008 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Somehow Mrob was able to lead his team to BCS game and Morelli never got near one
That’s more an indictment of the 2007 team versus 2005 than one of Anthony Morelli himself. I hunted down a stat to illustrate this; in 2005, Robinson had the luxury of playing on a team with a top 10 pass defense in conference games that kept opposing QBs to a terrible 104.05 rating and generated a ton of turnovers, and hence good field position. In 2007, it was ranked 59th and let opposing conference QBs crank out a 123.73 rating. We missed Alan Zemaitis and Calvin Lowry as much as Michael Robinson last year.
I wonder...
what our rushing numbers were in big ten play alone. I have a feeling that against our OOC opponents we probably racked up some huge numbers. Thus skewing the stats slightly.
"Boy that student section now is up and really making a gigantic amount of noise. You see the sea of white, the white out. Well they are 2 minutes and 28 seconds away from the whiteout of the Buckeyes here tonight." - Ron Franklin
Ask and ye shall rush for 193.8 yards per game.
RUSHING OFFENSE G Att Yds Avg TD Yds/G
—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-—-——
1. Illinois…......... 13 595 3338 5.6 28 256.8
2. Wisconsin…........ 13 587 2610 4.4 29 200.8
3. Michigan State…... 13 580 2576 4.4 29 198.2
4. Ohio State…....... 13 554 2560 4.6 21 196.9
5. Penn State…....... 13 528 2519 4.8 27 193.8
6. Michigan…......... 13 540 2144 4.0 20 164.9
7. Minnesota…........ 12 433 1941 4.5 15 161.8
8. Indiana….......... 13 475 2046 4.3 18 157.4
9. Purdue…........... 13 413 1674 4.1 22 128.8
10.Iowa…............. 12 438 1515 3.5 11 126.2
11.Northwestern…..... 12 398 1437 3.6 17 119.8
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
My only observation
4.8 is the second highest ypc behind Illinois.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
And, crap.
I didn’t even bother to check if those were conference-only stats.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll add
That Illinois ran a full on spread offense last year, so you have to take into account quartbecks running the ball, which is easily accounts for the 60 yards per game they out rushed us by
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
Illinois
They ran so because of the spread, the lanes that open for a mobile QB with some good receivers make for some great run production. I hope we are at the top of the B10 this year in rushing with our line, Clark, and groyster. I really don’t anticipate the passing numbers of AM or anywhere near, just enough to get the job done would be fine.
Boom goes the dynamite.
by psu on Aug 4, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Game by game comparision
Penn State averaged 182 net rushing yards in its 8 big ten games last year and 212.6 net rushing yards in its five out of conference games (including the bowl game). In every Penn State game last year except one (MSU), the team that rushed for more yards won.
From these stats, I conclude that running the ball effectively is key to winning big ten games. Because we’ve got one of the best o lines in the league and solid backs, I think we’ll be successful this year, somewhere betweeen 0 and 3 regular season losses.
nice comparision
thats not a huge difference, but i do think its significant. the only reason i bring it up is that, I was thinking that the rushing yards we piled up against the weaker teams shouldn’t really count towards our production/ability to win games since we already had the game in the bag. Meaning that royster and co. don’t really have to put up equal numbers to last year’s in order to get the same ‘effective production level’
I agree with your assumption that running the ball effectively is key, but not completely. I mean, just look at ohio state. they finished 4th in rushing offense, but finished 1st. also michigan was ranked below us in rushing offense, yet beat us and finished higher than us in the final conference standings.
While it might seem like a no brainer, I think a better stat to correlate winning the big ten to is total offensive production. That way you can include passing yardage too, because (probably against popular belief) the big ten does pass the ball!
"Boy that student section now is up and really making a gigantic amount of noise. You see the sea of white, the white out. Well they are 2 minutes and 28 seconds away from the whiteout of the Buckeyes here tonight." - Ron Franklin
by rmcmillen50 on Aug 4, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good point
Rushing yards against Northwestern and Minnesota are meaningless. Rushing yards against Ohio State and Michigan (and the next tier down) are what matters.
One of the reasons...
why LJ didn’t win the Heisman.
by Screen Name 20 on Aug 5, 2008 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions
that's the argument
and a just one, but the truth is he had no chance against LA hype machine.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Thank Gawd for Stats
Yay, Data! So much more interesting to comment on than shouting….I think the chance of reaching those numbers, both season total and YPC, for both Royster and Green are quite good and not all that bold. Mostly for two reasons:
1. A returning experienced offensive line, which can dominate a schedule that features:
2. At least 5 very weak defensive lines (CC, Cuse, Oregon St. (lost their front 7) Temple, Indiana), 3 rebuilding with questionable/average talent & depth (Iowa, Purdue, MSU), 1 w/decent talent and no depth (Illinois) and 3 w/above average combo of experience, talent, or depth (OSU, Mich, Wiscy).
I think with games against 8 teams our Very Good O-line can soundly defeat in the battle of the trenches, the chances of this year’s RBs equaling or passing the statistical performances of last year’s are quite good.
Convivite Nudem!
I think Rich Scarcella is accurate
10-2 sounds about right and if some things go well maybe we finish with an even better record.
Patiently waiting for the return of Penn State Football
i'll decide after thr Oregon State game
but I agree, right now I can’t really expect much more than that. Although I do believe PSU is a better team than Wiscy, but the whole ‘on the road’ thing is deadly.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
If we play and coach to the best of our abilities
I think OSU should be the only loss but that’s not the way things always go.
Patiently waiting for the return of Penn State Football
by ReadingNitFan on Aug 4, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Keeping my options open, but...
I’m at 9-3 right now, and leaning more toward 8-4 than 10-2.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
8-4
I got it right last year; and I’m going with 8-4 again. Losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan, of course. We may swap a win with a loss; I have a hard time seeing us beating all the teams we ought to beat given the distractions, but I can’t guess which one.
10-2
Seems to be the easy pick right now. Most people are conceding the OSU and Wisconsin games. What I’m getting tired of reading is 9-3 picks in which people say we lose those two, then make some vague statement about our road woes and how we’ll lose one of Purdue or Iowa, or that Michigan State is going to be tough, etc. I don’t have a problem with a 9-3 or 8-4 predicition, but be specific. Who are we going to win/lose to and why? Although I suppose that’d be asking a sportswriter to actually provide some insightful analysis.
And with that, I’ll go ahead and avoid making my own prediction.
I'm a big picture guy
I look at this team and they feel like a 9-3 team in what should be a watered down Big Ten. Penn State gagged away three eminently winnable games last season in which they were small favorites - Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State - so I don’t think it’s a crime to not identify which exact “extra” game they’ll lose. Maybe Purdue and Painter can take advantage of our weak secondary and road difficulties. Maybe the hoopla surrounding Paterno’s last possible game at Beaver Stadium will be too much of a distraction for the team.
Predictions are worthless anyway, and I’d even argue that it’s less useful to predict which games they’ll win and lose, including Ohio State and Wisconsin. Half of the teams on the schedule will probably be much different when we play them, whether it’s due to injuries, suspensions, misplaced expectations, etc. Same goes for PSU, really. The rationalizations for each predicted game result would probably be more ridiculous than the overall predictions themselves.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe so
Sure, predictions are worthless, but they are kinda fun and, if thought is put into them, somewhat interesting. It’s not as if anyone is being held accountable for their predictions, so what’s the big deal? How many articles can we read about JoePa’s age or the off-the-field stuff? I personally would be interested in reading what knowledgable college football people (which includes BSD) really take an in-depth look at the season, game-by-game. I agree that it gets difficult to get too specific considering so much can change by the time each individual game rolls around, but listing 4-5 games as possible losses and then saying we’ll lose 2 is….eh….wishy washy.
I loved that preview.
Really good stuff by him.
Maybe it’s my own laziness setting in, but I don’t care to write a detailed preview of a game eight weeks from now. Too much changes throughout the season. But that’s me. Otherwise, point taken.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 4, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
I’m the one clamoring for it and I don’t even want to do it. Ok, this is getting to be a very pointless mini-thread. Moving on.
Go State
Could the PSU be in the Motor City Bowl?
Yes, Penn State could end up in the Motor City Bowl this year. IF all kinds of crazy things happen. First, Penn State travels well so Bowl games want PSU to be there. So, Penn State would have to be the last team selected. Assuming there are 7 B10 Bowl Games, 6 teams in the B10 would have to be 7-5 or better, Penn State at 6-6 and everyone else with a losing record. Outside of that, I can’t imagine a scenario where PSU goes to the Motor City Bowl and this scenario is far fetched. So, realistically I can’t see PSU going to the Motor City Bowl under any circumstances.
Record Talk
I hate to make a prediction until we found out what Penn State team shows up in Columbus. The routes are:
1. We are the greatest. 12-0 only.
2. OSU always beat us in horseshoe. i heard that argument last year from buckeye fans that said that we always win in beaver stadium.
3. Let’s wait and see. Maybe we can surprise some folks.
1 or 2 loss season; no doubt in my mind!
I’m going with 12-1 or 11-2 and prematurely calling the bowl game a win on the premise that we will be this good and the players (particularly seniors) could be up in arms because Joe may be on his way out.
I’ll say that we will lose to tOSU and win every other game, or we will lose to tOSU and Wisconsin, OR tOSU and someone we shouldn’t lose to (A Purdue or Iowa, someone of that variety…doubtful that it would be MSU because I don’t think they have won at Beaver Stadium since we joined the Big Ten).
If Clark doesn’t play well or goes down we may lose more of the improvising ability on the ground, but Devlin stepping in could mean more of an uptick for the 3 senior WRs. If Royster goes down we have Stephfon Green, Brent Carter & Brandon Beachum. If a WR goes down we have Brackett or Moye. I assume AJ Price is a definite RS but you never know, if his academics are on point and he impresses they may leave the RS off of him for a few weeks just to make sure nobody goes down against Illinois or Oregon State. If an OT goes down we have Lou Eliades or Nerraw McCormack…I think we are pretty well off and I doubt we see the string of injuries along the DL that we saw prior to last year so I think people are over-stating the loses of Baker & Taylor.
Prior to the ‘07 season we had Tom McEowen with his knee (winter workouts), Devon Still (knee), Abe Koroma (foot), Chimaeze Okoli (broken ankle?) and we lost Hayes & Odrick in the middle of the season. That’s 6 players that either couldn’t contribute at all because of injuries/RS or were key components but lost because of injury.

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