Nitt Picks Reverts Back To 2005
More preseason rankings are filtering out -- CFN has Penn State at #17, Sports Illustrated puts the Lions at #22. So does the Kansas City Star.
Jay Paterno is shopping around his Spread HD concoction, giving the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette a few clues:
"It's a different system than people have seen the last couple years," Paterno said. "The whole idea of it is to give us the best chance to win. We want to get to the point where we have an established running game, and, if we need to, we can throw the ball to win games in the fourth quarter."
Center A.Q. Shipley said the new offense is eerily similar to the one Penn State used in 2005, when it was 11-1, beat Florida State in the Orange Bowl and finished third in both polls at the end of the season.
"In terms of receivers, running backs and the whole scheme of things, it's going to be a lot like '05," Shipley said.
...
"I'm thinking people will notice the difference in our offense," [Derrick] Williams said. "We have so much talent. What coach Paterno and the offensive staff are trying to do is get everybody to touch the ball and give you an opportunity to make a play. We have so many weapons and so many ways to get the ball into the end zone. It's exciting. There's definitely a lot more opportunities than before."
Okay. Let's hope this is for real.
Our new friend Travis Sawchik -- you'll hear more from him as the Coastal Carolina game approaches -- reports that CCU quarterback Jamie Childers is recovering and resting at home as he deals with the after-effects of viral meningitis. He's hoping to be ready for the Penn State game. Sounds like a bad, bad idea to me, but we wish Jamie the best in his recovery. Scary stuff.
Chris Baker is reportedly looking to continue his playing career at Hampton University. He could have been reunited with Chris Bell, who ended up at Norfolk State after initially telling the staff at Hampton that he would be enrolling at Hampton:
Pirates head coach Jerry Holmes and offensive coordinator Corey Sullivan said this week that Bell told them during a recent visit that he would be transferring to Hampton. They said he then changed his mind and said he would register in summer school at Norfolk State. Sullivan said that Bell told him he plans to play football for the Spartans.
Spartans' coach Pete Adrian said that he could not comment, and I have not been able to run down a phone number on Bell. Holmes was perturbed that Bell reneged on the commitment he supposedly gave to Hampton.
"He came over here talking about trust and character, then backed out after telling us he was going to transfer here," Holmes said. "I'm disappointed."
That...that is an unfortunate headline. Still, a good article about how Penn State is dealing with is disciplinary shenanigans:
Linebacker Navorro Bowman dealt with being suspended after an October altercation during a dance at the school's student union. Bowman indicated he has absorbed a hard lesson.
"Just pick your troubles wisely. Just stay out of trouble," he said. "Everybody learns from their mistakes and I did learn from it."
Bowman was dealt a personal blow this summer when his father died.
"My teammates ... supported me and came to the funeral," he said. "That meant a lot to me."
Senior Rich Ohrnberger, a starting guard, has managed to steer clear of legal entanglements, but he's found himself visiting Paterno's doghouse because of his impish personality.
His epiphany, he said, was "figuring out that you're an adult now and you're being perceived that way, you have to act that way."
Ohrnberger was reluctant to specify his behavioral changes.
"I don't know," he said. "The little kid stuff that doesn't fly any more. We're big boys now."
Okay. Let's hope this is for real, too.
Linebacking Jesus Updates: Paul Pozluszny ready to bring the pain, hardcore to the brain. Dan Connor gets some first-team reps in Carolina.
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"Glorified wishbone"????
One has to ask how our illustreous QB coach figures that a spread offense is basically a glorified wishbone? The wishbone is heavily weighted, in some schemes as much as 90 percent, to the run. How is that diverse?
I grow more concerned about the Prodigal Sons involvement in the offense each and every day…
State High Class of 92 Penn State Class of 96
But it's glorified!
Which means we’ll run 85% of the time.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
we've got one of the best o-lines in the country,
solid backs, and, with Clark at least, a qb who’s a threat on his feet. I hope we run 90% of the time; if we’re doing that, we’re probably winning.
doesn't glorified mean an increase?
so like 95%? Or, more specifically, Clark, Green, Royster and Williams in the backfield with Butler running the deep route every play?
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
I know
At the Blue-White game he was trying to exit the field after the game. I wasn’t really paying attention and he bumped into me. It was like getting hit by a truck.
John
Far be it from me...
To point out the obvious… but if this offense is going to be like ‘05, you’d better hope one of your quarterbacks manages to channel a fraction of Michael Robinson’s abilities. I don’t think they’re going to be able to just pull out the “2005 Offense” binder from the playbook files and integrate that thing in seamlessly. I understand that they’re trying to play to their strengths on offense, but I think there’s a bit of a difference between trying to establish yourself as a powerful rushing team and trying to do what was done with Robinson and Co back in ‘05.
Quotes like this, leave out the most important cog in the wheel (I’m sure it wasn’t intentional, I’m just saying): “In terms of receivers, running backs and the whole scheme of things, it’s going to be a lot like ‘05,” Shipley said.” The single most important factor of that offense was Robinson… which is the single largest void on this iteration of the offense is it not?
The reason your 2005 offense worked so well was because Robinson had one of the great seasons in recent memory, certainly by far the best season PSU has seen from one of it’s quarterbacks since when… Kerry Collins?
Just sayin’...
Go Blue!
Path of least resistance
I have to say, the Spread HD thing seems like the path of least resistance to me. It doesn’t force the coaching staff to train a QB in the intracacies of pro-style passing and lets the QB’s operate more on instinct. Not that it’s necessarily a bad model for the college game, but it’s not exactly a vote of self-confidence in the coaching staff’s own abilities with respect to the passing game.
If the coaching staff is thinking that whoever is behind center can magically turn into Michael Robinson, they are certifiable.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Astute point...
The 05 offense had a lot going for it…not the least of which was the element of surprise. NO ONE on our schedule had any clue we would go to a ‘spread’ or hybrid offense. That carried us through games the early part of the season when MRob frankly, struggled. All cylinders didn’t click until the Minnesota game in late September…that’s when Robinson announced himself as the driver of that offense. Until that game, I never really had a sense that we had an identity on O…post-Minnesota, I thought we had the most offensive weapons in the league, if not just behind USC in the country.
Both of the QB’s on the roster this year have a decent enough skill set to make the offense work with this very experienced offensive line, with these FOUR year starter wide-outs and with Royster in the backfield. Will it be “just like 05”? No, I don’t think so because the QB won’t or shouldn’t be the touchstone of big plays, unlike 2005.
State High Class of 92 Penn State Class of 96
by NittanySteve on Aug 7, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I gotta agree...
Michael Robinson had two great qualities – leadership and the ability to make something out of broken plays.
It seemed like 50% of the plays in 2005 were Robinson taking off after no other option existed. I guess that is much better than the last two years of moonwalking and throwing darts to the opposing DB’s.
Since Jay is polishing up his spread HD, will other teams be pulling out their spread IMAX 3D playbook?
I can’t wait to scream at my TV!
www.pinkertonpark.com
One other thing...
I just was hoping to get a sense of the consensus here, but do any of you feel a little bit concerned about the staff’s tendency to play some of your BIG road games way too close to the vest?
I think that’s the other largely unmentioned factor here, let’s say this offense does start to click, is there still some level of concern that the staff will tone it down a bit for trips to Madison and Columbus?
Go Blue!
Always, always.
The conservatism on the road has long been a complaint of PSU fans. Why Paterno thinks he can still win 13-10 games away from home is a mystery to all of us, but it’s never worked in Columbus since we joined the Big Ten, only worked at Michigan twice (1994 and ‘96), and Wisconsin twice (1996, 2002).
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
You're right
In a sense we are a team looking for a Messiah like Robinson. Maybe we’re too optimistic, but then it’s the preseason so everyone is optimistic.
I’ll admit there are questions on this team. Clark is getting a lot of hype and comparisons to Robinson, but nobody has really seen how well he can throw the ball yet. Robinson threw a good deep ball but couldn’t connect on the short and intermediate routes very well. FWIW I’m hearing the opposite on Clark. But also waiting in the wings is Pat Devlin who I think is going to see a lot of playing time early on. I’m thinking this quarterback competition may last through the end of the non-con schedule.
But my biggest pet peeve is the coaching. PSU fans are aware of our coaching tendencies on the road and it irritates us to no end. I think we have the athletes to go 11-1 or 10-2. The big question is if the coaches will let them.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Adding to that...
“I F” we go with (the whole yr) a QB tandum, we “could” optimize their individual skill sets (DC = run & short route passing, PD = long ball)...”BUT”, in time, that would be predictable when Pat went in – so I do hope from what we hear that Pat IS mobile as well.
It is very un-nerving to me (if not all fans) that the game plan “changes” for the big games (conservative).
CAN WE ACTUALLY LEARN THIS YEAR NOT TO DO THIS…”P L E A S E !”
Like its been stated before: the QB’s DO NOT have to be “great”, just don’t turn it over. That in it self can keep us in the hunt for a potential “zero” loss season.
Our backs “might” not have great final total yardage #’s, since we really have the oppurtunity to spread it around on the ground; BUT Royster could still have an average of 6+/per touch…Speedy Green/DC and Carter as well.
Agreed?
Old School... MEETS New School!
by BlueWhiteLife on Aug 7, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Quiet the Crowd
I’ll play devil’s advocate here—it seems like the situation the coaching staff particularly wants to avoid in big road games is a early deficit resulting from points on turnovers. This is an acknowledgment that a raucous crowd can play a part in disrupting an offense and make coming from behind nearly impossible (see Ohio State, 2005). Interceptions and fumbles are great fuel for the fire, and given our crowd, it’s easy to see why they may have formed this opinion. Is it justified? I have no idea. And it does not explain why we employ this strategy at Michigan, who own the Pepperidge Farm of college stadia.
i was just about
to post that.
if we don’t change up our road strategy, we will never improve our chances winning in ann arbor, columbus, and madison.
how any coach can roll into these places with our game plan…...
JD
No disagreement here...
It is the single biggest strategic disappointment I have with this current regime. They used to be road warriors…now they are soft. Its a coaching staff issue too, I don’t get the sense that the players are at fault here.
State High Class of 92 Penn State Class of 96
by NittanySteve on Aug 7, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll base my comment on one 2007 game...
Michigan.
Sounded like Joe alone was the problem in regards to the gameplan. Would the gameplan that the team practiced all week produced a victory? Who knows – but it sounded like Joe’s @ss puckered and he dumped a weeks work of practice at the last minute for the same old, same old.
www.pinkertonpark.com
I can't believe I'm responding to a comment from a Michigan fan,
but YOU do sound like a rational, intelligent sort. And you are 100% accurate. If our coaching staff plays to win, as though we are the underdog or the outsider (which I feel the Big Ten schools and league office still look at us as) instead of this playing not to lose shit, then who knows what we can achieve. To me, this doesn’t look like the year to win in Columbus. OSU is on a run similar to the one we had in the late 70’s – early 80’s when we played for four National Championships in 9 years. Right now, the Fuckeyes are on a dominant run. Madison is a different story. That’s if the coaches decide to play, and not just show up to.
22 DAYS 21 HOURS 24 MINUTES 43 SECONDS UNTIL OPENING KICKOFF
I've Seen Enough
of Clark to convince me he will not be another Robinson. He is not fluid and seems muscle-bound both when he runs and drops back. Devlin is still an unknown, however…
PIPES...
his arms “might” be bigger than those of our beloved “BSD Mike”...12oz curls really do the trick!
Old School... MEETS New School!
by BlueWhiteLife on Aug 7, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not going to disagree with you but
I would like to remind you that Michael Robinson was not fluid, often flat footed and inexplicably prone to fumbling – until the 4th quarter of the 2005 Northwestern game.
True, but one point:
What we need from Clark now is different than what we needed from Robinson in ‘05. Robinson was an incredible athlete and an excellent leader - he was a clutch player. We needed the whole package in ‘05 - with a young Tony Hunt as our only RB, and young WR core - we needed a huge keystone on offense. Now we have a different set of needs - the QB can rely more on the RB and the WR positions (not to mention the line) but what we need is an excellent leader and clutch player. Clark doesn’t need to be as good a passer OR runner as Robinson—he just needs to be the leader Robinson was and which Morelli could never be. If Clark can provide that leadership, especially on the road, he’ll fill the void just fine.
Needs: Composure
Very good point millzners. To use a consulting analogy, what are the Business Requirements? With an experienced (and possibly deep—if we’re able to develop some of that big young talent) offensive line which should be a real team strength, and experienced receivers, and versatile (from each other) running backs, what do we most need from the quarterback position? I’d say Composure. Hopefully, the clutch needs of 05 won’t be as urgent this year, given our other strengths. But, composure, sorely lacking these past two years, is a must. It’s a terrible and tired cliche, but Game Manager is what is most needed: ‘we don’t need you to win the game, but we do need you not to lose it.’ Sweet little upgrades from that, such as accurate, spread-the-ball around, passes, are not just gravy, but could promote us into something beyond just winning. Would love to explore that rare air not really seen consistently in Happy Valley since back in 94:.....dominance?
Convivite Nudem!
a quote from Buffalo Rumblings
Paul Posluszny looked good. He looks like he’s in the best shape of his life, and, to be frank, like he could snap most of the Bills’ receivers in half with a good lick. He and Lynch are easily the team’s most popular players.
Jay Paterno's Quote Means Nothing to Me
“It’s a different system than people have seen the last couple years,” Paterno said. “The whole idea of it is to give us the best chance to win. We want to get to the point where we have an established running game, and, if we need to, we can throw the ball to win games in the fourth quarter.”
But Jay, what happens if we don’t establish a running game? Then what? Does our new offense have the ability to throw the ball in the 1st quarter?
This quote is worthless gibberish.
What I don't like
Is that our co-offensive coordinator thinks there will be times when we have to come back from behind. Hopefully we can lead the league again in 3rd down conversions outside the redzone or whatever dumb stat he mentioned on his blog.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Aug 7, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
What happens if we don’t establish a running game?
The same thing that has happened when we have not been able to establish a running game for the last 40 years. We’ll probably lose.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
Please, please, please....
whatever the “spread HD” turns out to be, please banish the “3 yd quick out” on 3rd and long straight to the 3rd layer of hell. I’ve seen enough of that to last a lifetime and hopefully Satan can put it to better use tormenting his minions.
www.pinkertonpark.com
Were we unable to throw in the 4th in previous years?
I can’t believe what I’m reading.
Designing an offensive gameplan to give a team the best chance to win? That is a departure from the past, Jay! Glad it only took you 12 years to figure out that gem.
Robinson........
completed 52% of his passes in 2005. Let’s not get carried away with the perception that Robinson was a once in a lifetime talent. At PSU to this point he has been, but I see no reason not to expect Clark to at least pass the ball as well and based on his size and athleticism run the ball almost as well. I’ll go out on a limb from memory and suggest that Robinson didn’t have the talent around him that Clark will should he be named the starter. Considering our offense the last two years, I can’t imagine that we won’t be vastly improved on offense. When your QB can get you first downs with his legs its a huge advantage. One person touching the ball and its demoralizing to the defense to have a play covered and to still give up the first down because the QB ran for the first down instead of taking a sack or throwing it away.
Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.
I think it's time to put this whole Michael Robinson debate to rest:
Micheal Robinson was a damn good QB and one hell of a leader. Period. Say what you will about his numbers, he won games, and he performed in big games. Yeah, he had a horrific start to the game at Northwestern. But he led us back. And the biggest play of that game was the 4th and 15 completion for 18 yards to Isaac Smolko. If he misses that pass, we lose, and who knows where the season goes from there. Without getting into the officiating, Lloyd Carr, the Big Ten fucking us, and the coaches screwing up by kicking to Breaston on the last drive, he was a hero at Michigan. HE engineered that drive that put us up 5 with less than two minutes to go. Did Morelli ever have a drive like that, trailing late, LATE in the fourth (home or away) knowing that if we don’t score, we lose? He had several of them ( the Fuckeyes in '06, Illinois in ‘07, @ Micigan State in ‘07) and did he ever lead one game winning drive late in the fourth quarter? HELL NO!!!
Robinson was a gamer. When it was tight, when it had to get done, he got it done, and he did it with a shot at a national championship game in reach. Kerry Collins was the last QB we had that performed that well in the clutch with so much at stake. Period. So forget stats, appearances, mechanics, and all that nonsense. Robinson was a helluva QB for us.
22 DAYS 21 HOURS 16 MINUTES 31 SECONDS UNTIL OPENING KICKOFF
I Didn't Say.......
he wasn’t a helluva QB. I was saying let’s not act like he was so fantastic that the likes of him will never be seen again. I pointed out the completion percentage to point out that Clark isn’t going to have to come in and light it up to pass better than Robinson and that given his physical stature he should be able to gains yards on the ground like Robinson. Those two factors coupled with the talent around him makes me think this offense could be very good this year. In 2005 people were excited but were cautiously optimistic about Robsinson. Anyone who says they saw that year coming is flat out lying. That’s what made it so much fun…..it was a lot of “Oh My God you believe he just did that?” because he out did most people’s reasonable expectations of him. I think we might see the same thing out of Clark if he gets the nod. So what’s my point….....my point is that people tend to look back at 2005 as though they saw it coming because they new how good Robinson was and I am simply saying that at most those people had an inclination, but nothing nearly as concrete as they talk today. MRob could have just as easily been medicore and I don’t think it would have been that much of a surprise. People would have said….....well what do you expect, he doesn’t have that much experience at the position. Anyhooo.
Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.
To be fair...
Joe Paterno never waivered on Michael Robinson. The team was in the toilet, Michael wasn’t playing well and Joe Paterno was telling anyone who would listen that Michael Robinson was one of the best college football players he’d ever seen. People were literally laughing at him.
You have to give the old man credit on that one.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
He also knew something we couldn't have known.
Anthony Morelli wasn’t all he was cracked up to be by the recruiting gurus.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't that scare the shit out of you...
...vis a vie Daryl Clark?
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
Not at all
I think the leadership aspect is severely overlooked when we discuss 2005. That team fed off Robinson—a fact that became apparent to us as the season progressed, but was obviously not lost on the coaches early in the season.
Once Morelli was in the starting lineup, it became readily apparent that he was never going to be pulled. Ever. Why, we’ll never know. It’s not like he was some sort of magnetic force that the rest of the team would die for.
Two different situations, IMO.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe...
But Paterno was right when he said that Robinson is one of the best players he’d ever coached…
He was right when for two years he said Morelli wasn’t ready to be quarterback…
You’re not even a little bit concerned that he kept Morelli in the lineup as opposed to Clark because Morelli was better?
I sure hope you’re right.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
This May Be Oversimplifying........
But wasn’t Morelli supposedly lights out when the lights were out ?
Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.
It's important to have some perspective with regard to Michael Robinson...
I went back into the files and found this gem, from a chat on the post-gazette.com the week after Penn State beat OSU in that classic in Beaver stadium:http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05287/588748-215.stm
“I am a die-hard Penn State fan and absolutely enjoyed the Penn State-Ohio State game this past weekend. However, like the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Kordell Stewart days, Penn State will never have a real chance at the national championship against the high-powered offenses like USC until they get a quality quarterback to take advantage of the speedy receivers. In the Northwestern game Michael Robinson overthrew so many wide open receivers that there is no way Penn State can take advantage of their speed if they have no one to throw to them. In your opinion would Anthony Morelli be a better fit? Looks like a great 2006!”
The point is that well into the ‘05 season, a large or at least vocal penn state contigent thought MRob should be benched for Morelli. In hindsight, it seems moronic, but it was a popular opinion at the time. It’s worthwhile for us to be mindful of that kind of thinking as this season gets going…
And then....
...Morelli opened up the 2006 season with that bomb to Norwood in the Hurricane against Akron…
I remember that
I turned to my Uncle sitting next to me and said, “It’s all downhill from here.” Little did I know how far downhill that offense would go.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Aug 7, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
all i know
Is that #14 is gone. I could not possibly watch one more scramble and fumble. He chocked so much we were resigned to a pre-New Years Bowl Game. Which also meant the Bowl game was on my wedding day. I TIVO’d it and still can’t bring myself to watch it, because I can’t stand the thought of seeing #14 again.
Might get to see him tonight
Cardinals on ESPN.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 7, 2008 8:30 PM EDT reply actions
#14
haha, I just watched him overthrow a receiver/running back on a 5-6 yard pass. Then on 3rd down he got sacked because he held the ball too long.
"Boy that student section now is up and really making a gigantic amount of noise. You see the sea of white, the white out. Well they are 2 minutes and 28 seconds away from the whiteout of the Buckeyes here tonight." - Ron Franklin
Gah!
You beat me to it. I wanted to break the news of his ineptitude carrying over to the NFL.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
It is amazing how little Anthony Morelli played but even more astounding how poorly he looked in doing so. He patted the ball like 50 times, got sacked twice, zipped his first pass well above the intended receivers head even though he was in the middle of the field and the throw was essentially a straight line and very easily could have gotten sacked 4 times rather than 2.
The one time he held the ball until someone had his legs and he threw late and the other time he let off a wobbler 25 yards into the air while getting drilled from behind. He did have one pass dropped on him and did throw one nice pass I believe but I come away from this, even being the 1st preseason game with the belief that he won’t remain on the team. Maybe practice squad but I doubt it.
I almost feel guilty talking about it.
It’s just piling on at this point. But he did not look good.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 8, 2008 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions
so, question
and i’m not one to defend OC2, but if he isn’t able to get his football sense after a summer of NFL coaching, does this impact our opinion of Jay?
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
The funny thing about JayPa's coaching results
...is that there’s a reasonable excuse for each of his quarterbacks. Senneca really wasn’t a D-1 prospect in many ways. Mills was good until he was injured and his surrounding personnel crapped the bed. Morelli didn’t have the natural QB instincts required for the position—he just had a strong arm.
Then there’s Robinson, who wasn’t exactly a highly-trained QB due to the position switches and ended up a 52% passer who willed the team down the field because he was always the best athlete on the field. So if anybody really wanted to defend Jay Paterno, there’s somewhat of a case to be made.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 8, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Can't Let It Go
I know you’re not defending Jay and just putting it up there for “devils advocate” purposes, but it’s pretty clear we recruited the wrong people for the QB position.
Who was responsible for QB recruiting while JayPa has been QB coach? Oh… that’s right.
yes
I think it would have to….....even if its only slightly. However you still have the chart that MGoBlog put up on our passing efficiency numbers. Having 70 something be our highest ranking since jaypa took over is pretty bad…....even if the players were not of top caliber.
My best guess tells me that this is a combination of jaypa’s lack of coaching ability and the qb’s lack of talent. In my opinion is probably rests 65 – 70 % on jaypa and 30-35 % on the player. Kids go to college to learn, and the same can be said about football players. A good coach should be able to develop at least some talent out of the kids that he has.
"Boy that student section now is up and really making a gigantic amount of noise. You see the sea of white, the white out. Well they are 2 minutes and 28 seconds away from the whiteout of the Buckeyes here tonight." - Ron Franklin
I'm torn on the PE numbers
And I admit that I’m not quite the stats guy that I used to be, but just looking at the 2007 numbers, here are some pass efficiency rankings:
9 Louisville (6-6)#10 Houston (8-5)
#15 Okie State (7-6)
#16 Nevada (6-7)
#18 Nebraska (5-7)
#23 Colorado State (3-9)
...
#73 Michigan
#74 Penn State
We can do the same thing for Scoring Offense or any other stat. I’m not quite sure what any of them mean when you’re pulling stats from a pool that includes UTEP, UCF, New Mexico State, etc.
Even when you look at the conference-only stats, Ohio State gained 1.8 more yards per game than PSU last year—it was OSU’s defense that held opponents to ~80 yards less per game than the second best D.
Penn State was 11th in conference pass efficiency but 2nd in first downs. Which would you rather have?
Again, I’m just throwing this stuff out there. I don’t pretend to know what any of it really means once you get into the muck of tossing numbers around. If people want to pin stats on JayPa, I’d go with Red Zone TD% instead of pass efficiency.
by Run Up The Score on Aug 8, 2008 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
thats the problem with football
I’m a pretty big baseball stat head, but I simply can’t get into football stats simply because there are too many moving parts for there to be any way to make judgments. In baseball, ‘grit’ is a punch line, but in football, because of the nature of the sport, it can actually be the difference between a successful play and one that fails.
There’s been a lot of talk about MRobs numbers this week in the comments, and from a passing perspective they aren’t great, but does anyone really care?
And to compare QBs from different teams: they are running totally different offenses that dramatically affect things like comp%, yp pass, ect. You are also working with linemen and receivers who have a direct impact that can’t be quantified (time to pass, dropped passes, running correct routs). That’s before you take into account (1) how many points per game the defense gives up, which affects offensive play calling, and (2) how good the running game is, which opens up the pass.
So I’m not really saying anything except this: brining up a couple of stats is a really poor way to judge a player. You might be able to get away with it if you include dozens and dozens of metrics, but even that would take some very serious interpretation and you can always make arguments either way.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
(and i know all of that is really obvious, its just something that bothers me about football so I felt like ranting, bothers me in a good way, though, things are a lot less clear and I sometimes enjoy that)
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
Not one bit
Brian at mgoblog made a pretty good case during his assessment of our program for the JayPa era being a consistently awful period for our QB development.
I would argue the NFL coaches have had to basically try to mold a high school QB into an NFL-caliber player in one summer, since his college years were a developmental wash.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
the problem with Morelli...
isn’t--and never has been-his mechanics. It’s his composure and decision-making skills—two of the most important things for a qb, and the two that he lacks most egregious.
There’s no doubt that Morelli can throw a ball that’s ten times prettier than MRob, but Robinson was, by far, the better college qb because of his poise, his decision making, and his leadership. Those are, by and large, things you can’t “coach.”
Morelli is not good; to see him throw the ball you think he’ll be great-which is why he was a solid recruit-but he just flat doesn’t have the intangibles to be a good qb. It’s no one’s fault-not Jay’s or Joe’s, it’s just reality. The biggest mistake Joe made in regards to Morelli is believing in him too much-he should have developed Clark more last year. Otherwise, it was Anthony Morelli, and no one else, who loved to decide to throw a bullet in between three defenders.
composure and decision-making skills
If Michael Robinson had Anthony Morelli’s legs I wonder what we’d all think about his “composure and decision-making skills” not to mention his “poise, his decision making, and his leadership”.
I think you’d have to agree that it was easier for Robinson to make the decision to run when nobody was open than it was for Morelli, right? It was also probably easier for Robinson to keep plays alive with his legs so somebody could get open after a play broke down too, right? If Robinson had to stand in the pocket and make throws we would have been lucky to win seven games in 2005.
I think 90% of the difference between Robinson and Morelli was the fact that Michael brought much more to the table athletically than Morelli. I think that other stuff is important, but secondary to skill.
Conversely, I bet if Morelli could run like Robinson did, he would have appeared more poised and maybe even looked like a better leader.
For the Glory; National Champions 1982, 1986, 1994,
I agree and disagree...
Yes, if Morelli was a better athlete he would have been a better quarterback, and if he had better legs, maybe he would have run downfield more often rather than running backwards to avoid the rush. Then again, if my aunt had a dick, she’d be my uncle.
Morelli brought plenty to the table as a qb, not the least of which is a canon of an arm. Morelli is a more athletically blessed qb than Chad Pennington ever was, even before his shoulder totally failed him. But Pennington was a better qb than Morelli ever will be, largely because of intangibles.
Morelli’s decision making was pretty good, unless he was in a tight spot—and that’s where poise/composure comes in. And so he’d run backwards and sometimes take a sack instead of throwing the ball away, throw into double or triple coverage, etc. Although, I’ll more or less willing to concede the point that it’s simplistic to say that Morelli lacked “decision-making skills,” because I think he often possessed them, depending on the context. Against an inferior opponent or in the first three quarters of most home games, Morelli was good. On the road in-conference, watch out.
As for leadership, I don’t think there’s much of an argument here. At Big Ten Media game before the ‘05 season, MRob said, “We’re going to win the national championship,” and he meant it. He had that vision and he often willed the team to follow. Yes, he was a great athlete and an outstanding football player (regardless of position), but he also had an iron will (intangible/uncoachable) that Morelli never had. Michael Robinson had to deal with the same whispers about him that Morelli did; he just had way more self-confidence, which translated into being an effective leader for his teammates.
Remember when Morelli missed that press conference last year? That’s something Michael Robinson never would have done, and that’s telling. A good leader is someone who’s dependable: MRob was, Morelli wasn’t.

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