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Recruiting - Destroy the Star System

I believe the star system utilized by sites like rivals should be destroyed.  It's false hopes built on conjecture.  Take Kansas and Notre Dame.  Mangino built a 12-1 football team with 3 four-star recruits.  Say what you will about their schedule, there's something to be said for recruiting intangibles.  Notre Dame has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country in the past four years, but they have never approached the look of a BCS-worthy team.

This was originally figured out by a friend, but I thought it was worth posting.

Star-divide

Rivals High 4 (loosely based on top 15 or so in the positional rankings) and 5 star recruits from PSU classes ’04 to ’07:

 

Flame-outs for various reasons:

Josh Marks

Antonio Logan-el

Phil Taylor

Chris Bell

Greg Harrison

Joel Holler

 

Contributed but Underperformed Hype/Stars:

The QB Who Shall Not Be Named (rhymes with "Lorelli")

Justin King

Austin Scott

 

Panned out:

Dan Connor

AQ Shipley

Mo Evans

 

On the Fence:

Derrick Williams (not up to hype)

Jerome Hayes

Pat Devlin

Andrew Quarless (improving)

AJ Wallace

 

Starting/Contributing 2 Stars (or less) this season:

Tony Davis

Mark Rubin

Drew Astorino

Abe Koroma

Ollie Ogbu

Anthony Scirrotto

Josh Hull

Stephfon Green

Daryll Clark

Kevin Kelly

Deon Butler

Jordan Norwood

Mickey Shuler

 

Note:  It’s a bit unfair because there are so many more 2s than 5s out there making for a better opportunity to pick and choose who pans out.  But we seem to be far better with diamonds in the rough than the supposed jewels of the class.

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a different view

The PSU micro-universe aside, SMQ disagrees here on the whole using the NFL draft as a basis.

by gumbercules on Sep 22, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions  

The System

is based on who goes to workouts for the recruiting sties.

So if a player has an offer and doesn’t do the workouts he’ll probably stay a 2 star rather than move up to a 3.

Its not a perfect system and it provides a rating based on potential. So a guy runs so fast, benches so much, etc etc. It doesn’t and won’t say how someone reacts in a game.

Look at Mike Hart. He was a 3 star guy who was not super gifted athletically, but he just didn’t go down when he carried the ball. So he was rated based on his athleticism rather than what he coudl do on the field.

And last is that the 5 stars could be bad at PSU from development and from style of play. King might have been a stud in a press coverage defense. Williams might have excelled in teh Florida offense.

Its not that the star system should be destroyed, its that recruiting classes should be evaluated after the fact. If everyone gets into the school and how they work out after each year.

by DrDetroit on Sep 22, 2008 6:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Cowherd........

really has the point on recruiting…….how does who is recruiting a guy impact that players rating ? ND would be the prime example. Are they recruiting 5 star guys or 3 star borderline 4 star guys that become 5 star guys once ND shows interest ?

As I have stated ad nauseum on this site in the past, at the end of the day the teams that win are the teams that recruit well according to the rankings. Of course their are exceptions, but there are exceptions in everything as we all know.

WInningest programs since 2008:

Tennessee
Michigan
USC
Miami
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
Boise State

Apparently Frank Beamer is arguably the best coach in the country, given their record and the fact that they don’t find themselves in the top of the recruiting rankings year in and year out like everybody else on the list does save BSU.

Go Broncos. (That was for my wife).

Eric Watters Atlanta, Ga.

by ech2os on Sep 22, 2008 7:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Since 2008?

"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008

by jesse. on Sep 23, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

...should be noted...

POZ was a 2 or 3 star recruit…

" We need MORE cowbell !"

by BlueWhiteLife on Sep 23, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply actions  

I can't believe I didn't look at this post,

until it’s almost off the board.

I can get really worked up about this (rivals/scouts/etc suck; herbstreit agrees with me), but usually reserve those fights for the offseason. We’ve got real football to concentrate on.

In general, though, I’ll say this:
Recruiting matters a lot, but I don’t trust the criteria or judgement of the sites that do the evaluating. In short, I trust Joe Paterno, Tom Bradley, etc more than the jackasses who spend all their time fawning over 16 year olds.

I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.

by spakajewia on Sep 24, 2008 12:11 AM EDT reply actions  

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