Vegas Knows Best: Other Big Ten Matchups
by KevinHD on Sep 30, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
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PrintThis is an experimental post in which we'll look at the Big Ten lines and try to make some sense out of them. Format is subject to change, but for now I will give an initial reaction to the line, mention some of the relevant points, and then see if, after a deeper look at the matchup, I can reconcile my view with that of Vegas. Note that this isn't a picks post or some kind of attempt at tying to outsmart the books; consider it a case study in public perception.
Illinois @ Michigan
Michigan -2.5
Initial Reaction: Wait, Michigan -2.5? Is that right?
Further Review: Michigan did find some rhythm last week against Wisconsin, and from a confidence standpoint that win has to be huge, but they still have turnover issues and their personnel is still not the right fit for their system. They seem to have overcome some of the defensive woes we saw in the Notre Dame game, but Illinois' attack takes a lot more discipline to defend than the line-em-up-know-em-down Badgers. The option attack Zook rolled out in the second half last week could be very dangerous if Illinois is running it with the lead. On defense, Illinois did look very weak on running plays to the corners, and you have to think Michigan will be using those plays as their bread and butter.
Can I Get There? Maybe, but it's going to take me becoming a true believer in the Michigan defense. The ND score was misleading due to turnover and they did a good job with Wisconsin, but Illinois attack is a lot more like Utah than either of those schools and UM struggled there.
Indiana @ Minnesota
Minnesota -7.5
Initial Reaction: Seems a little low
Further Review: One of the worst teams in D1a got out to a good start this season and went into a tough game at Columbus 4-0; a loss there was expected but it wasn't overly ugly. Their most impressive win was probably the thumping they game Bowling Green just one week after the Falcons took down Pitt. Indiana is coming off back to back blowout losses to Ball State and Michigan State. They averaged close to 25 point per game in those two contests but are sporting a terrible defense, one thank ranks 62nd nationally in yards given up. The game is also in the Metrodome.
Can I Get There? Yes. Minnesota is probably looking a little bit better than they actually are, and Indiana's loss to Ball State was probably not as much of a black mark as it would appear; the Cards are ripping through the MAC right now.
Iowa @ Michigan State
Michigan State -9.5
Initial Reaction: Seems low
Further Review: Michigan State lost early to Cal, but that was a close game and on the road. It looks like they've found the formula with Ringer and can probably sit on a lead better than any team in the Big Ten right now. Iowa, on the other hand, has taken two gut shots in a row to Pitt and Northwestern. Their win over Iowa State was closer than the score would indicate. They have no idea what direction to take the offense and we are five games into the season. Iowa is keeping opposing defenses close to 100 yards rushing, but that sounds more impressive than it is. Pitt, probably the class of their competition so far, ranks just 63 nationally on the ground; Iowa State is about the same (59).
Can I Get There? No. I'm sure the score of this game will stay relatively close with MSU's clock management ability, but I still don't know if Iowa can keep it within two scores.
Ohio State @ Wisconsin
Ohio State -2.5
Initial Reaction: Agree, although I would have guessed closer to -4
Further Review: I think that Wisconsin is taking a little more heat for their loss to Michigan than they really should, from a public perception standpoint anyway. A fourth quarter collapse is a big deal, but it doesn't necessarily mean the team doesn't have talent. They became Michiganesque in the turnover department and had the game tied before being called for illegal formation. Stud Wisconsin HB/TE Travis Beckum will probably be back in the lineup against the same defense that was pushed around on the line both by LSU last season and USC a couple of weeks ago. Obviously, an early lead is very big for Wiscy and Pryor is probably not the guy you want leading a comeback on the road (at least not right this second).
Can I Get There? Yes. Wisconsin plays great at home and there will be a lot of pressure on Pryor.
Penn State @ Purdue
Penn State -12.5
Penn State isn't getting this treatment; we will be looking at this matchup as the week progresses.
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Wisconsin
so when we beat them and if we some how lose to ohio state, we would still be in line to win the Big Ten
PSU Softball
Sounds good to me
Will the real Derrick Williams please stand up?
by ReadingRambler on Sep 30, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
OSU-Wiscy, UM-Ill
Both are giving me fits in the “who do I want to lose less?” department. I came to the same conclusion you guys did with the prime time game, but I don’t know what to think about the game in Ann Arbor. I guess it’s only Tuesday.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
I'm rooting for Wiscy and Illinois
Because I hate scUM and tOSU.
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Sep 30, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Go Illini
Will the real Derrick Williams please stand up?
by ReadingRambler on Sep 30, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
After we beat someone
I want them to win the rest of their games. It will help us in the long run. If they need example please see Oregon State for instructions.
PSU Softball
But
this logic doesn’t really work for in conference games, where we play both of the teams in question. Sure, we beat Illinois and we want them to win the rest so they look better, but don’t we also want it to look like we beat a capable scUM team? When it comes to conference matchups I almost always root against the teams I hate (scUM, tOSU) unless having them win would help us a lot. The one caveat is that I tend to want the ranked teams to stay ranked, and the other teams I could care less about, since they’re just “fodder” for the season anyway.
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like a douche bag but...
Honestly, I think I’ll cheer for any team that will bring the pain to Pryor. Someone needs to obliterate that kid, deflate his ego and “hollier than thou” attitude.
Anyone else find it odd that the spread was more for Illinois than it is for Purdue?
Is that because they think Purdue is a better team than Illinois, or do they get points since it’s being played at Ross-Aide?
I bleed Blue and White.
It was probably because
of the ease we played with our first 4 games, and the fact that Illinois previous game was the 20-17 win over a wish-they-were a directional Louisiana. Vegas relies heavily over the previous game played by each team, which is a great way to win some bets if you dig deeper and thats the sort of chili you like.
We won by 14 at home against a good team, now we go on the road against a team that nobody’s really sure how good they are. Kevin is right, the formality is a three point bonus is you’re the away team, although I think they alter that sometimes. This is saying that PSU would be an 18 point home favorite if the game was in the Beav, which is probably close to what it would be if that were the scenario.
Also consider
This Purdue line will likely close at or above 14, since it appears that PSU is getting pounded by the general public. The Illinois line started at 13.5 and finished at around 15.5 (Kevin stated the line was as high as 17 somewhere, but I never saw it that high). These actions are not surprising, seeing that Joe Public loves taking favorites, especially ones with good offenses.
I think Illinois is over-rated in the eye of the public, which is why you see Illinois getting points at The (Former) Big House.
Illinois is actually FAVORED at Michigan
In what looks like an oddity but isn’t, Illinois is favored at Michigan.
If you see a line of home team -3, vegas believes that the teams are equal. Whenever the line is more than -3, as is M-Ill at -2.5, then the visitor is favored.
blogue20 is right. If the game was in Happy Valley PSU would be favored by 18.5, if not more.
Interesting Write Up
I find it telling that both Indiana and Minnesota lost by the same amount (13), but you classify those losses so differently. About Minnesota: “a loss there was expected but it wasn’t overly ugly”. About Indiana: “Indiana is coming off back to back blowout losses to Ball State and Michigan State.”
Meanwhile, Minny was down 34-6 until two late scores made it appear closer. Indiana hung with MSU the entire game, down only 7 going into the 4th quarter. Granted, Indiana was at home and Minnesota was away, but I’d bet your perception of those events leads to why you think the line is off. Also, Minny covered while Indiana did not, which probably affects the perception going into this week.
Two persnickety things: you were looking for “personnel” instead of “personal” and “Michigan-esque” instead of “Michigan-esk”.
shoot, and I even used the spell check
Good points about perception. Part of the problem was probably that I went up to SC this weekend and didn’t get to see too much of these games. I did see part of the UMinn game and they looked capable (although it sounds like that wasn’t the case the entire time). I did look at the box score of the Indy game and it just struck me as off-balance…
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
From the MSU-Indy game recap:
But the strangest, and most important play, came late in the third quarter when Indiana’s backup quarterback, Ben Chappell, connected with Terrance Turner for a 97-yard touchdown pass that appeared to give Indiana the lead. Instead, right guard Cody Faulkner was called for holding in the end zone, giving Michigan State a safety and a 36-29 lead.
Pretty good recap of the tide-turning play.
Also, there's this....
A Take on PSU’s Chances of Going Undefeated
I know, I know, cart before horse, but I think this analysis is pretty spot on. Also, each line may not really represent “true odds”, but 10% seems like a reasonable outcome.
I like that analysis
but there are a few flaws I see in it.
First: I think the lines would change in our favor if we continue to win.
Second: Take Wisconsin & OSU. They play each other this weekend, so one of them will come out with a loss that will change that line in our favor, while the other one probably wouldn’t get too much of a boost with the win.
Third: This is just talking about undefeated regular season, and a true undefeated team would win their bowl game, which is not factored into here (for the obvious reason of having no idea what that line would be). I’d have to think (read: hope) that if we’re undefeated, then we’ll be in the NC game, in which case we’d be highly unfavored, since A) we’re from the Big 10, and B) we’d probably wind up playing someone from the SEC who will treat it as a home game.
Still, I like how we’re favored in every game on there except OSU, in which case we’re essentially being listed as an even team, with the 3 points going to tOSU for home field advantage.
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
My second point
was meant as an example for other teams listed that still have yet to play each other. Basically all of those teams are likely to get at LEAST one loss, just because they have to play each other, and that will drop the line. The only teams that won’t likely get another loss would be Michigan (still have Illinois and Toledo before we play them), and either Wisky or OSU (play each other this weekend. OSU plays Purdue in between.
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We're actually rated slightly higher than OSU...
in the latest Las Vegas Sports Consultants rankings, which play a major role in setting the lines.
I’d say your second point isn’t necessarily true. What if OSU and Wisky both play to their perceived potential? Say OSU wins by 3. Will the perception of each time change enough to warrant a line move? Probably not.
Also, using the best possible guess right now was the point of that analysis. There’s no way you can account for future outcomes.
I agree
But there are some assumptions that could be made to further the analysis, since we’re already assuming that PSU is undefeated for each game.
You are right that “perceived potential” tends to set the lines, and if they play to that perfectly, then they likely wouldn’t drop much, but it seems that even a “L” to the (at the time) #1 team in the country dropped the perceived potential of OSU (granted they did get blown out).
Some obvious flaws with my “assumptions” is that PSU could win out, but only win each game by 1 point, in which case they’d perceive us as weak. Or one of our future opponents could win all ther future games by 60 points, drastically raising their perceived potential.
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
undefeated writeup
Kunk – I agree that they are not the exact “true odds”, I am making an educated guess at them based on past results and power rankings of those that set these lines up. The lines put out by vegas are obviously not going to be the true odds, but since PSU has been out-performing expectations you can argue that they have a better chance than I laid out. (Since the lines will be skewed towards the public betting their way)
JuggerNitt – Kunk pretty much nailed it, but what I was trying to come up with was what would that line be if they played tomorrow. There are tons of different possibilities that can play out over the course of the rest of the year. That post was created so that I could figure out what the expected value of my future that I have on penn state is right now – and adjust (if necessary), as the season goes on. If Penn State wins this weekend, then I will reasess my(their) situation next week, and see how things stand everywhere else. I sure as hell am not going to try to do that now when Penn State could lose on Saturday and all of my “analysis” would be useless.
http://sportinvestments.blogspot.com
keep me up with your investment
because a lot of us have an emotional investment in this as well :-D
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
-esque and -esk are both acceptable...
and this post was great. Hope that it becomes a weekly staple.
Looking immediately, I really like wiscy at home. Might put that one on the money line. Bielema’s never lost in camp randall, I don’t see him starting against a freshman qb.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
you take that back, you take that back right now!
with just a small tweak, you almost said, “I really like wiscy at home. Might put that one on the money line. Bielema’s never lost in camp randall, I don’t see him starting against a first year qb.”
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Clark is no freshman.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
I didn't say freshman
I said “first year” though I suppose I meant “first year starter” or “first year getting any snaps”. I know there is a HUGE difference between that and a true freshman, and I’d take Clark’s composure over Terrelle Pryor’s (or pretty much any other QB in the Big 10 and/or nation) right now. He also has the advantage of practicing as the starting QB for much longer than Pryor has, but he still is “fresh”
by The JuggerNitt on Sep 30, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a real short list of guys I'd take over Clark right now.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
as long as you're not asking me to take back...
my ideas about the use of -esque and -esk.
Believe it or not, I wasn’t thinking about Penn State playing Wisconsin at all. We’ve got to get through tiller’s stache before we worry about them.
I wouldn't trust old rooster me neither.
Iowa +9.5 at MSU
This one is the surprise for me. Iowa is a power running low scoring team. Michigan State is a power running low scoring team. Iowa’s strength is their defensive line. MSU’s strength is Ringer getting a 100 carries.
Michigan State likes to give up big plays. Iowa likes to run the ball and doesn’t do much of anything else offensively.
I would guess this one to be a low scoring affair. I think Michigan State will win, but I think they would win by closer to 7, rather than two scores.
Of course, for Iowa this is their QBs first road start of the season. It will be interesting to see how he resopnds to a hostile environment.
The only people who are going to watch the Iowa/MSU game
are insomniacs.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
I go to MSU for grad school
and 3 of my friends here (who are all undergrads) are going down to the Penn State vs Purdue game :-P
of course, one is my girlfriend so she’s keeping me company, and the other is the daughter of one of Purdue’s coaches, and then her boyfriend, but still, gives you an idea of A) how much MSU cares about football (student section routinely empty before the third quarter ends), and B) how “big” their game this weekend is gonna be
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 1, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
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