BSD Staff Predictions - Oregon State Beavers
With the short week and all the distractions Friday really snuck up on us. Kevin and I offer our opinions and predictions below, but RUTS never got me his thoughts in time. Apparently he has a "job" with "meetings" and "responsibilities". Of course that didn't stop him from throwing a loud party last night and having a good time with Puff the Magic Dragon if you know what I mean. I'm seriously starting to question his dedication to this blog endeavor. Anyway, here are our picks. Maybe RUTS will offer his in the comments later on.
Kevin says...
Contributors will be in street close, but the games are going on anyway. I'm not letting poor judgment get in the way of an inter-BCS game I've been waiting eight months for.
The offense: it's probably pretty good. The running game was solid, with three guys running for around eight ypc. The defense they face, however, gets a lot tougher. Oregon State had one of the better defenses in the Pac-10 last season, but the losses up front to graduation should play well into Penn State's strengths. OSU game up 210 yards to Stanford last week in their heartbraker, and I suspect Paterno's line will be even tougher to block than that of the Trees. The coaches will probably let Clark run this week, so the options on the ground only become more dangerous. The passing game in another matter; OSU has a solid secondary and will be getting back one of their best defenders, safety Al Afalava. Regardless, I like our ability to score tomorrow.

We will, for better or worse, find out a lot more about our defense tomorrow as well. With the now totally depleted defensive line, and questionable secondary, it's going to be one of those days where you hold your beer real tight and hoping nothing especially bad happens. Oregon State has legitimate threats at receiver, and, with the loss of depth at secondary, I imagine the soft coverage that drives us all crazy will continue on Saturday. Bend but don't break. The over/under has been increasing but remains at a relatively low 47. For all of our sakes, I hope Vegas is right here.
I think the rest of the team pulls together here, they are playing at home and have the talent advantage to make Paterno (briefly) the all-time winningest coach in college football.
Kevin's Prediction: Penn State wins 35-28
Mike says...
The events this week have Penn State fans terrified and have given Oregon State fans a boost in confidence. The loss of Koroma, Evans, Harriot and Quarless will be significant, but when the whistle blows we'll still manage to put eleven guys on the field. Quarless hasn't been a factor in the offense since 2006, and I think we'll be fine with a defensive line that features Gaines, Odrick, Ogbu, and Hayes with Maybin, Lattimore, McEowen, and Crawford rotating in and out. Knowledge Timmons and Drew Astorino are going to have to step up and contribute in the secondary, and don't be surprised if you see D'Anton Lynn take off the redshirt and replace Harriot as the gunner on kick and punt coverage.
I expect the Oregon State offense to come out firing on all cylinders and test the defense early. If we come out aggressively blitzing like we did with Coastal Carolina I fear our lack of athleticism at linebacker and depth in the secondary is going to kill us. We'll get burnt a few times before Bradley waves the white flag and drops the linebackers into zone. That won't stop the Beavers, but I think it will slow them down enough to let our offense catch up. I'm also counting on crowding the secondary to cause two or three turnovers from Moevao.
From our offense I expect a lot of yards and points. Oregon State is soft in the front seven. Stanford ran up over 200 yards rushing, so I'm expecting Green and Royster to each gain 100 yards and a couple touchdowns in this game. If we can control the ball and not turn it over we should win this game easily. But my worst fear is that we jump out to a three touchdown lead and Joe circles the wagons. Oregon State stacks the box and we keep pounding into it desperately watching the clock and hoping to hold off for a win. Think Michigan State all over again. Against a team with this many weapons you have to keep scoring until the game is over. Ultimately I think we'll do what it takes to win, but we're going to come out of this game with serious concerns about the defense.
Mike's Prediction: Penn State wins 45-42
Read Related
Comments
Oregon State can move the ball offensively...
but I think you guys are giving them too much credit for the PSU D not enough. The only starter/player or large significance that they lose because of 5204-gate is Maurice Evans. Stanford put up 36 on the Beavers, Penn State should be able to duplicate that easily, and the D will not give up more than 25 points
Penn State: 48
OSU: 23
"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson
by phishead_psu on Sep 5, 2008 2:05 PM EDT 0 recs
5204gate
I like it. I’ve been stuggling with what to call it all week.
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
by Kevin HD on Sep 5, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs
I was thinking...
More along the lines of “5204-the love of JoePa, not this &*%$ again”
by mgr135 on
Sep 5, 2008 2:34 PM EDT
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Ironic that 420 is in the address...no?
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on
Sep 5, 2008 5:00 PM EDT
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PSU Defensive Blitz
I don’t think we’ll see as agressive a blitz package as we used against CC. I see more of a standard PSU zone defense with the occasional blitz.
by Screen Name 20 on Sep 5, 2008 2:11 PM EDT 0 recs
Either way, a good game...
I like both of your predictions. While they’re both heartbreakers for me, I like the idea of a shootout. I still think/hope the Beavers will put their offense together. Something has to give as far as our early season woes go (check our record the past three or four years—we actually start our season in October/November). I think this could be it.
I would be surprised if our offense doesn’t work hard to establish the run right away. We went away from it so early against Stanford that it really hurt us. If we can get any kind of run game going with our young, untested RBs we should really be able to do some damage with our passing game. Stroughter, James Rodgers, Catchings (nice name for a WR when he’s not fumbling through the end zone for a touchback and the L), Morales and even a few of our TEs should give the PSU secondary all they can handle. The WR position has a lot of speed so this match up should be interesting.
Ultimately, Moevao needs a higher release and needs to simply distribute and NOT LOSE THE GAME. If he plays safe, conservative football that is relatively mistake-free we’re in a very good position to upset PSU this Saturday.
That said, I’ve enjoyed the blog and the conversations. Ours is a little bit more inflammatory over there at BTD but I hope you’ve enjoyed it too.
by ArbyOSU on Sep 5, 2008 2:24 PM EDT 0 recs
RUTS
is just like the PSU players…a stoner and operates on his own schedule and doesn’t bow down to “the man”.
Ore St. – 48
PSU – 34
by SweepTheLeg on Sep 5, 2008 2:56 PM EDT 0 recs
These things are all true.
Damn the man!
Penn State 34
Oregon State 28
by Run Up The Score on
Sep 5, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
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Here's hoping
that your prediction is 5000% wrong.
by Screen Name 20 on
Sep 5, 2008 3:27 PM EDT
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Well...
Last week I predicted 70-3. Came sorta close, soooooooo….
Penn State 41
Lil Beavahs 24
"Red, it took me sixteen years to get here. You play me, and I'll give ya the best I got."
by Touchdown on Sep 5, 2008 3:22 PM EDT 0 recs
I'm still thinking Vegas is right
That over under suggests a rainy, run-oriented game. Most people here seem to think the over is a lock, but I’m not convinced…
PSU 27
OSU 18
by Kunk on Sep 5, 2008 3:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Wooooooooo!
That would be fun to watch!!!
"Red, it took me sixteen years to get here. You play me, and I'll give ya the best I got."
by Touchdown on
Sep 5, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
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That's just ridiculous...
Our D will definitely hold their offense under 90. No doubt!
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on
Sep 5, 2008 5:03 PM EDT
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I'll bet my right nut on that one.
That we hold them under 90…just so we’re clear.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Sep 5, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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Is that deal?
Will give up your right nut and only have 1 if we do give up more then 90
by jetskijoe on
Sep 5, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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Deal
I’m pretty confident we’ll hold them under 90.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on
Sep 5, 2008 11:01 PM EDT
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No Clue
6-4 oops, what I meant to say was 42-31 Penn State.
by nittanyroar on Sep 5, 2008 4:19 PM EDT 0 recs
Are we comparing our D to Stanford's ????
PSU 42 OSU -17……..with the Lion defense and special teams scoring one TD apiece. Green and Royster both top 100 and Carter and Clark throw in 50 apiece on the ground.
I thought only safeties played 15 yards off the ball?
by pic15 on Sep 5, 2008 4:32 PM EDT 0 recs
Its hard to proofreed while under the influence of illegal substances. The words just move to fast.
When in roam.
I don't know, Mello Yello is pretty awful. What's the worst that could happen?
by psu on
Sep 5, 2008 4:50 PM EDT
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where the hell is Roam?
so is OSU -17, PSU -31a win or a loss?
Kevin @ Black Shoe Diaries
by Kevin HD on
Sep 5, 2008 5:24 PM EDT
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I simulated on PS2 . . .
And Penn State won 95-3.
’Course I was on the Junior Varsity level, where I played so well for State College High.
And Sean Lee played and those suspended guys because I couldn’t figure out how to substitute them out.
And that three yard out was gold! Derrick Williams had seven TDs at least on that.
This ones in the bank.
Signed – JayPa
by CDRS on Sep 5, 2008 6:23 PM EDT 0 recs
pic15
Damn close. Hope you had some coin on that.
'People are about as happy as they decide they want to be'
by Pete the Streak on Sep 7, 2008 8:08 PM EDT 0 recs














