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Penn State Efficient, Says Football Outsiders

It's all the engineers, I think.

Football Outsiders finished their work on the most "efficient" offenses and defenses of 2008 and they have good things to say about Penn State.

Before the numbers, a quick precursor:

Game Efficiency quantifies the success rate of a team scoring while in possession of the ball and preventing scores while not in possession of the ball over the competitive course of a game.


It's a measure of how well a team takes advantage of their drives.  It's not measured on a play-by-play basis, but rather what a team does with each possession (and how well they defend their opponents' possessions).

They go on to point out that garbage time is excluded (something that isn't a perfect science). Offense and defense are them combined into something called the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). This is an SOS adjusted number, more about that in the link above.

Star-divide

 The 2008 results?

Team W-L FEI
Florida 12-1 0.363
USC 12-1 0.287
Oklahoma 11-2 0.279
Texas 12-1 0.276
Penn State 10-2 0.253
North Carolina 7-5 0.229
Mississippi 8-4 0.218
Alabama 12-2 0.216
Virginia Tech 9-4 0.207
Florida State 7-4 0.205

 The concept it similar to one that basketball has rapidly adapted, putting gross stats in context of game situations and possessions.  The number of yards a player gains isn't very insightful if you don't know how many times they touched the ball.  In that same way, team stats need context as well.

As for Penn State, their high rank in this compilation category is a result of incredible balance: Clark's TD/Int ratio (3rd in the BT) and QB Rating (24th nationally, 1st in the BT), Royster's yards per attempt (18th nationally, 2nd in the BT) and Kelly's FG% (83% overall, perfect inside of the 40).

On the defensive side, the traditional stats tell the same story. Penn State was top 10 nationally in all of the following defensive categories: total yards, rushing yards, yards/game, tds, points/game, sacks and interceptions.

Bottom line: Penn State appears to have earned their 11-2 record, and the improvement from Alamo to Rose wasn't a drastic change in turnover margin or special teams plays, but rather an almost universal upgrade in core football skills.  It's something to keep in mind as we start previewing the 2009 season.

For interest's sake, other notable teams in the three-digit bottom of the 120 teams ranked: 102 Toledo (fired their coach even after a win at Michigan) and 106 Indiana (and they are actually worse at basketball).

Stats from statsheet.com

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That last link

is from the 2007 FEI, not this past season.

by Cairo on Jan 23, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not sure what happened there

I was all over that site, it’s a good read. Anyway, updated. Thanks.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Jan 23, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do wins against I-AA competition count in this?

Because if so, we were 11-2. Maybe it was the win against Michigan that doesn’t count….

by jimbo2psu on Jan 23, 2009 10:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it was Meatchicken

Oh wait… Free Shoes U only has 11 games on the tally sheet, and considering that they played two 1-AA patsies this year, I’d have to say that they don’t count.

There is a tractor in the parking lot, West Virginia license EIEIO. Your lights are on.

by leeharvey418 on Jan 24, 2009 1:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

Counting wins against 1-aa teams is something Bobby has been doing for a long time. The F.O. guys aren’t buying it, though.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Jan 24, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

FEI doesn't count I-AA games

I-AAs don’t play enough games against I-As for FEI to get meaningful ratings (also of note is that for some bizarre reason FEI really loved the ACC last season).

by drothgery on Jan 26, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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