We are..not back yet
by georgialion on Jan 7, 2009 9:08 PM EST
Email
PrintThe 2005 season highlight DVD said WE ARE...BACK.
But I don't think we are and here is why.
Our national reputation is okay, not great. The Championships in the 80's and the Grand Experiment earned us favor far and wide. But as the SEC player, can't remember his name now, as his comments show We are not respected right now. Because we didn't win that game against USC, people will say PSU is overrated. Hey look, they can't beat Iowa, and then they were supposed to compete with SC, c'mon.
And because we are in the big ten, we are sullied by reputation in the last few BCS bowl games.
With 800 wins and 6th all time, we are among the nation's elite college teams over time. But last year, Brian Norwood left. And this year, LJ may be leaving. Even if he stays, why is he looking? Cause Joe just does not know when to exit. Who will be next? Is Scrap loyal for the next 3(?) years?
Say LJ leaves, and we win the NC next year or in 2010. What will be left of our current coaching staff by then? Has Joe thought about this? Has he consulted his assistants, or made decisions for them so that hopefully they will stay?
We may be fine, we may not. But the smooth transition of coaching that would ensure we remain a top tier program is currently very much in jeopardy.
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so proud
I love you honey. Great post. I’m so proud of my georgia cub. You dad would be so proud of you.
Your grammar is excellent too. The best writing piece I have ever seen!!! :)
We are still very much in transition
Someone said asst. coaches leave all the time. True, USC is an example. But they never lost recruiting ground because of this, and an integral cog in their system.
I would like to see Penn State always moving forward, always at the top. Our falloff should be from NC’s to 10-2 seasons. Some schools can currently do that. I hope that Joe Pa staying is for the best, I just don’t see it that way currently. I hope I’m wrong and he’s setting us up for his last great hurrah AND years of excellence after him.
I was out in the trenches, which enables me to paint such a powerful picture, like Apocalypse Now.-Cormega
I think one of the reasons for USC's
continued success at recruiting is b/c the head coach still recruits and, correct me if I’m wrong, is a beast on the recruiting trail.
by Screen Name 20 on Jan 8, 2009 8:30 AM EST up reply actions
California
It also doesn’t hurt that they are in California. There is more talent, especially skill position players to choose from. Plus California can play year round football, much like Texas and Florida. In PA, kids play basketball, lacrosse, baseball, etc.
PSU Softball
USC's roster
features as many kids, if not more, outside of Cali than within. Pete Carrol is an incredible recruiter across the country as can be seen from the diversity of his roster. PSU is a very regionally recruited school. The loss of LJSr, and in effect the Maryland recruiting base he has developed, will be significantly more damaging than I think any of us want to believe.
We are not normal. We are legends.
by NittanyAlum02 on Jan 8, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
That's wrong
In fact it’s way wrong. Like 80% of USC’s roster is in state.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
California is HUGE
Getting the top recruits from California is comparable to getting the best players from PA, NJ, MD and OH just in terms of population size. CA is 37 million. PA + NJ + MD + OH is about 38 million.
So while it’s just not right to say USC recruits mostly nationally, CA alone is a huge talent pool. Then pretty much all of the guys they recruit nationally are serious talents, the sorts of guys recruiting services rate 4 or 5 stars. PSU very rarely can go outside of the OH, PA, MD comfort zone and cherry pick those sorts of players. And having an 80% PA roster would not yield particularly good results unless OSU, Pitt and Rutgers stopped recruiting the few guys they get from PA that PSU also recruits.
Not disputing the size of California
nor am I endorsing having a team that is all from Pennsylavania. Your point is geographically sound, the one I responded to was not.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
yeah, 37 million... and those are just the legal, tax paying citizens
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Jan 8, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I don't agree
I think we’re back, but I guess it depends on what you consider back. Just because some loudmouth Florida player doesn’t think anything of us doesn’t mean we aren’t nationally relevant again. Which I think we are. There are only a handful of programs I’d put ahead of us right now based on what we’ve done the last four years….USC, Florida, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU, probably Georgia too, and that’s pretty much it.That doesn’t mean we can’t fall off again, but those programs could too.
Here’s the thing though-when have we ever really been that respected nationally? No program has been screwed over more in undefeated years than us.
As far as the LJ thing. It hasn’t even happened yet. Chill out. If he leaves, he leaves. You don’t know his reason for leaving more than anyone else, so to say he is leaving because of Joe staying on is nothing more than speculation.
I'm afraid bumpier roads lay ahead
I think what we’re about to realize is that by Joe not naming a successor it’s obvious it won’t be anyone from his current staff.
I can’t think of any reason that Joe hasn’t said “ABC’s the guy, I don’t know when I’m going to retire, but when I do, he’s the guy” How big a deal is that? Hell, he could coach until he’s 90. All it does is give us continuity and a smooth transition.
It seems painfully obvious (to me at least) why he hasn’t done this: it’s too late. The powers that be are already looking outside the program. Joe’s earned the job for as long as he wants, but after that, they’re cleaning house.
I don’t know if this is a good thing or bad thing, I don’t really care. I just want Success with Honor.
Our falloffs should be from NC’s to 10-2 seasons. That was the 80’s. Our falloffs are from 11-1 seasons to 9-4.
1980's
Wrong…1984, and 1988…both were bad teams. 88 was a losing season, 84 (the played like babies squad) would have been had we been in the Big Ten. 1983 and 1987 were nothing special, we started to turn the corner in 1989. I have argued and will continue to argue that the most talented Penn State teams were in the 1990’s.
Keep in mind that had the the dark era teams played Penn State’s 1980’s schedule, they probably would have won 7 or 8 games a couple of those years. Had we joined the Big East, not the Big Ten, we probably have three more undefeated regular seasons (at least) and probably one more MNC. With the exact same players.
Go back to the late 1960’s, look through the schedules, you see one or two great seasons, follewed by two or three good or even bad seasons. The pattern is exactly the same today, dark era included, except the peaks have not been as high, and the valleys have been lower. That is attributed more to the rigors of the Big Ten versus a Big East schedule (which is essentially what we played before 1993). People remember Alabama and Nebraska from the 80’s, they forget about the 8 years series with Cincinnati, and the East Carolinas, Browns, Rutgers and Temples that littered those 70’s and 80’s schedules. Seriously, look it up. The level of competition is far more consistent from week to week that it was before we joined the Big Ten.
Why would our coaches leave? I don’t know, maybe because they are good coaches that got offered promotions? Other schools offering your coaches jobs is a sign of respect, not a sign that your garbage. I think in terms of fundementals and poise there is not a better coached footbal team in america. Where our coaches lack is in the X’s and O’s department, and if we don’t find a few of those guys we will struggle against the USC’s of the world.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Thanks
I’ve said this multiple times in talking people down from the ledge in 2006 and 2007. Penn State historically has a great year followed by two good years and then another great year. It’s been that way the entire Paterno era. The dark years went lower than we’re used to seeing, but 2002 was a good year. If not for a bad break here or there we could have finished 10-1. We were real close.
So if the pattern holds, we should expect eight or nine wins the next two years, and then big things in 2011. The way this recruiting class is looking, 2011 should be a big year when these kids are juniors. But due to small classes the past two years you could expect 2009 and 2010 to have some struggles.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Next year
If we only win 8 or 9 games next year, I’d consider that underachieving, even if Maybin and Evans leave. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see 3-4 losses on that schedule. That is, of course, assuming we don’t have any key injuries/potheads that get suspended.
True
I think you’re probably right. My point was “if the pattern holds”, however I think we’ll do better than eight wins. I’m thinking 10. Maybe 11 with some breaks.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Undefeated
With the cakewalk schedule we have next season, anything less than undefeated going into a bowl is an embarassment in my eyes. We have no OOC challenges, Michigan will still be down, OSU will by all accounts be less formidable, Wisconsin will be a bunch of chumps, and Iowa is coming to town without Green.
Even with our WRs leaving and a good chunk of our O line and secondary gone, I still see no reason why we can’t have a better record than this year. Our opponents right now look a lot less strong than they were this season.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
So we'll pretty much be this year's version of Alabama
going into the SEC championship game
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Jan 9, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
Anything less than going undefeated is an embarassment?
Seriously? If we go 10-2 that’s an embarassment? Wow.
I think we need some perspective here. Winning football games is hard. It’s not like Playstations where you just keep running the same three money plays over and over and win 75-3. When you are Penn State, everyone brings their A game. Going undefeated takes a lot of luck. You have to be good, but it takes a lot of luck too. You have just one game like Iowa where the weather conditions suck, the officials don’t see things your way, and the ball doesn’t give you any favorable bounces and you’re done.
There are a host of teams on the schedule next year that can beat you on any given Saturday. Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Michigan State are all teams that can knock you off if you’re not careful.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Jan 9, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't think I am being unrealistic
We should be favored in each and every game next year, the way the conference is shaking out with early departures and how easy our schedule looks. If we have 2 losses after playing complete creampuffs OOC and the two most challenging in-conference teams (OSU and Iowa) have to come to our house after losing their star players, I’m going to be disappointed.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
It's tough to go undefeated
even USC can’t do it often and they’ve OWNED their conference this decade.
by Screen Name 20 on Jan 9, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
And they should be disappointed
I’m not saying we will. It’s not a prediction.
I’m saying WE SHOULD. And if we don’t, I’m going to disgruntled.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
I see your point
But I guess it’s just me. I went to school during the Dark Ages, so I’ve come to appreciate the good seasons, even if it’s less than perfection.
by Screen Name 20 on Jan 9, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
I did too
I was there. And it sucked. It was frustrating. So when I see we have a team that can make a great run at it and can finally claim a period of Big Ten dominance, I want it to happen.
I didn’t expect to win the conference during the 06 and 07 seasons. I was fine with beating Texas A&M in mid-level bowls because I knew we didn’t quite have the team to win. Now I think we have it. And I’m not going to be very accepting of a 2 loss season going into a bowl.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
But
We shouldn’t overlook how much talent we’re losing. Butler, Williams, Norwood, Shipley, Ohrnberger, Cadogen, Devlin, Lawlor, Maybin, Sales, Scirrotto, Davis, Rubin. Maybe Odrick, Evans, and Bowman too.
That’s a lot of names. We’re not bringing back the same team that won the Big Ten this year. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered between now and September. Who is going to step up at WR? The O-line? The secondary? I think it’s unreasonable to expect perfection next year at this point.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
exactly
I’d completely agree on the “I’d be disappointed if we don’t go undefeated next year” if we were returning all our starters, but we’re not. I expect at least 2 regular season losses, maybe even 3, and would be thrilled with just 1 loss next season. Of course, if they want to go undefeated and win the National Championship, I won’t complain :-D
by The JuggerNitt on Jan 13, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Rebuilding O-line . . . .
Remember Clemson this year? Thy had a ton of guys coming back, with a major exception, their O-line. Harper, Davis and Spiller suddenly looked much more ordinary without a cohesive O-line to block for them.
Now, I’m not predicting PSU will have a melt down like that. But before you project what PSU is going to do next year, you need to see what the new guys on the line are going to do. The number one indicator in my book of success is returning linemen. This year PSU had both O-line and D-line heavily stacked. Next year I’m taking a wait and see attitude.
exactly
and this is why I would not be disappointed at all in a 10-2, or even a 9-3 season, since we lose the heart of our offensive line, which, althoug not as glamorous as the WR position (which we are also losing our top 3 receivers, and 3 of the best receivers PSU has ever had), is probably more vital to a team’s success. Of course we might have guys who can step up and fill in the roles, but we had a young core of guys in 2006 as well, which was why my hopes weren’t too high for that season, either.
Then there are all the losses we are going to sustain on defense, and although I think we’ll be able to fill those roles decently, I see a drop in performance.
Easy schedule? yes
OOC cakewalk? yes
conference cakewalk? despite the lackluster Big 10 teams, and their statuses next year, no, this won’t be a cakewalk.
*Iowa won’t be as good as they were this year (4 losses, yes, but they were better than their record), but I don’t see them falling off the map, even with the loss of Greene
*Minnesota and Northwestern showed that they were pretty decent teams this year (though I haven’t looked at their returning starters for next year yet)
*Michigan went through some growing pains this year, and that should extend at least into next year, but they still have some very talented athletes. If DickRod learns to play the system that suits his players, and not try to force his players into a system that doesn’t fit them, then they could even be good next year. Plus we play in their house
*Michigan State will have some key losses, and I think they overachieved a bit this year, but they’re still a very capable team, and we’ll be playing at Spartan Stadium.
*Ohio State losing Beanie Wells will hurt ,and they risk becoming one dimensional, but I imagine they’ll still be ok, just like they always are. Having them at home will be nice, though.
Those are all very losable games, and while I think we’d probably still be favored in every game we play next year, PSU vs Iowa, USC vs OrSt, Ohio State vs PSU, etc, all show that being favored doesn’t guarantee anything.
by The JuggerNitt on Jan 9, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
The 80's weren't as great as we remember
There were definitely some clunkers in there with the great seasons. That NC’s make it okay, though.
1989 8-3-1
1988 5-6
1987 8-4
1986 12-0
1985 11-1
1984 6-5
1983 8-4-1
1982 11-1
1981 10-2
1980 10-2
--
Mr. Bob Dobalina
by Run Up The Score on Jan 8, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
1987-1991
None of the teams that were there while I was a student were that good. We got spanked by FSU in the inaugural Blockbuster Bowl one year, didn’t even have a bowl in ’88. It was painful.
If I recall however
we finished in the top five in 1992, and the 1994 team was pretty good as well.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
The Blockbuster Bowl year
Was the same year this happened.
"They haven't played us yet."
by ReadingRambler on Jan 8, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
We started 0-2 that year then won 9 in a row. Both Penn State and Florida State were top ten teams when they played, and that game was closer the original poster made it sound. The 1991 team was pretty decent.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Have to point this out
But Zug kicked that field goal under a pseudonym. I now believe that #5 can truly travel through time.
I bleed Blue and White.
by Horse N Buggy on Jan 8, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
My question is...
is this normal as far as cycles go? Are we right on pace with the other elite programs or behind them?
And how do we get better? There is always room for improvement and I would like to see what happens once Joe Pa is gone. I’ve gotten the feeling that a lot of fans feel the program will automatically go downhill after losing Joe Pa. It may not be as special, but I see that we could definitely improve with the right coaching staff, the right recruits, and the all important dash of luck.
I was out in the trenches, which enables me to paint such a powerful picture, like Apocalypse Now.-Cormega
Define Normal?
Every program is different, and every coach within those programs is different. It’s hard to compare Penn State to Florida on a year in year out basis, becuase which coach sets the pattern. Urban Meyer? Ron Zook? Steve Spurior? Galen Hall?
That goes for every program out there. Joe Paterno does it Joe Paterno’s way, just like Urban Meyer does it his way, etc. There is just more patience involved in Paterno’s, primarily because unlike most every other coach in football he’s not looking for his next job. When you know you aren’t going anywhere it makes a lot easier to build for two or three years down the road than if your say, Tommy Tubberville.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
More of a cyclical program
It seems like PSU builds up for a good run every 2-4 years. Some programs reload almost every year so their cycle is a 2 year cycle, max. These are programs like USC, Texas, Oklahoma and Florida. Penn State just doesn’t get those huge recruiting classes every year. An average year is like 15 players with a handful of really good athletes. But when a stellar class comes in, those guys are not stuck at the bottom of the depth chart for 3 years. So the downside is that there are some pretty average years as the young high potential guys compete with the experienced but less talented guys, but when a stellar class reaches its junior or senior year, it’s not going to underachieve due to inexperience.
What’s most impressive about USC, really, is that when guys step in for a top player as juniors or seniors with little game experience, they usually perform really well. Usually that’s where elite programs start to slip a bit. Success breeds over-recruiting (think Miami, early 2000s) where you never really have a cohesive team and just plug talented guys in after you lose half your team to the draft.
Except every program on your list
Has had long…long…runs of being very bad. People act like Texas has been good forever, while traditionally they are good, them being cometitve nationally is a relatively new phenomenon.
USC’s first truly good season in more than a decade was in 2002 after they hired Pete Carrol to replace Paul Hacket for gods sake.
Oklahoma fell of the face of the earth in the 1990’s.
Florida didn’t do much for most of the 1980’s.
Penn State on the other hand has been as dependable as any program in the country for more than 40 years.
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
True . . . .
No program is always good, that’s true. And every program goes through periods where it struggles. The list I made will likely be completely different in 10 years. If I made the same list for the mid to late 90’s, it would probably include Nebraska, F$U, Tennessee and Michigan.
The point I wanted to make is that even when PSU has been at its peak, the team has tended to cycle from great to good years, or good to bad years. It’d be fair to say from the late 70s to mid 80s PSU had very few down years and was a perennial top 10 if not top 5 team. But since joining the Big 10, PSU has not really dominated the league over a 2 or 3 year run. Even in 93-97 PSU won only one championship, though was always top 3 or better. In the current era (Big Ten membership and BCS bowls) Penn State has been a team that peaks for a season, then takes a few years to peak again. This is not up to the standard set by a few teams that perennially contend for the title (even if they have fallen into obscurity after their dominance).
Players leave...
Its far more difficult for Penn State to maintain 2 or 3 year runs because of scholarship limitations and surrounding schools getting significantly better. Penn State doesn’t own the east coast like it once did.
Va Tech has become a perrinially ranked program. Virginia has NFL talent at some positions. Maryland contends for the ACC. Overlooked or undervalued prospects attend MAC schools. And Big 10 schools are pick pocketing PA and NJ prospects left and right.
As a result depth becomes more difficult to come by and the ability to string together several outstanding years just simply isn’t there.
Truthfully though, this could quite possibly have been year 4 of a top 10 run, unfortunately you can almost single handedly point to the lack of a competant QB play in years 2 and 3 that have prevented this.
by NittanyBadger on Jan 8, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
I agree about the last point especially.
I think the talent was there in all positions but one in 2006 and 2007, had Clark been worked into the system during that time frame we would have seen a game or two go our way such as 2006 Ohio State, 2006 and 2007 Michigan, 2007 Illinois, and 2007 MSU, etc. All of those games came down to poor QB play, and Clark as we now know, would have made the difference. Of our 8 losses in that time span 5 or 6 were in our grasp.
The good news is we have a chance to prove that QB play was the difference in 2006 especially with next season. We reload with young guys at several positions but should still be competative in every game.
Also...
We need to stop saying “we’re back” everytime we have a decent season. 2002, 2005 and now 2008, what are we the creepy kid from Poltergeist?
"I honestly think the "Spread HD" is going to work pretty well, and we’ll be just fine this year". - 8-27-2008
Agreed
“We’re back” means we’re not muddling through insignificant losing seasons anymore. We’re back on a level where we can compete with anyone in the country. We’re back to the point where everyone considers a win over Penn State to be a big win. It doesn’t mean we’re back to the point where we can play for the national championship every single year. We were never at that point to begin with.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
Well, not everyone thinks we're a big win....
I agree though, “we’re back” to our normal level of performance, and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
by Screen Name 20 on Jan 9, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
We have the ninth best record since 2005
How much more back can we get? We are a top ten program again. Id love to be number 1 every year, but I don’t see top ten as a failure.
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