Your Percentage Of Heart Attack, Computed

There aren't very many sports analysts I respect more than Bill James.  The latest version of Penn State basketball, along with a random link from this morning I can no long track down, lead me to something he wrote back in March:

There comes a time in a relationship when a woman will still answer your phone calls, but you're wasting your money buying flowers; you know what I'm saying?

[...]

The Jayhawks usually win by 15 or 20 points, and sometime in about 1968 I started wondering whether there wasn't some way to decide when the game was no longer in doubt. I began to experiment with heuristic inventions to try to find the moment at which the line was crossed. A heuristic could be loosely defined as a mathematical rule that works even though no licensed mathematician would be caught dead associating with it.

A heuristic can more literally be defined as "a method that often rapidly leads to a solution that is usually reasonably close to the best possible answer". A "rule of thumb" is another way to describe it.

Click through to read more about the formula, but the basic gist is that you need to maintain a strong "safety margin" in order to guard against quick scores in order to lock up a win.

And he's fully aware that the improbable does happen.

It's really unusual for a team to come from 16 back with four to play and win, but it does happen. I would guess it happens twice a year somewhere in the world of college basketball.

He says this, perhaps, because this happened once.

That was 8 points in 9 seconds; James calls an 8 point lead with 9 seconds left "over", 100%. The Knicks were actually only up 6 though, a situation James says is "So close. The lead is 69% safe".

Anyway, let's get back to Penn State, their tendency to hit free throws at a 3rd grade level, and this week's game against Purdue. The final minute of that game through the eyes of The Bill James Lead Calculator [Note: this has been updated since ESPN is apparently incapable of counting from time to time.  Correct play-by-play can be found at AOL]  :

Battle missed a big free throw with 16 seconds left, one of several failed chances to close the gap.  Penn State's foul with four seconds was a terrible move in that situation, one that literally unsealed what should have been a sure thing. 

Penn State played very well in many facets of the game, but between this ending and the one against Georgia Tech, I don't know how much longer Penn State can neglect their free shots, make foolish plays on the court, and continue to get away with some of these wins. 

If they are serious about being taken seriously, they are going to have to do something about being ranked 234th nationally (that's not made up) in FT%.