Nitt Picks Is Wondering About Iowa
by KevinHD on Oct 14, 2009 9:03 AM EDT
in Link Dumps
Email
Print
Yes I love these things.
Fun with whatifs. I hate to even do this, but I got to thinking after this lead in from TDG:
Penn State is halfway through the season sits at 5-1 having beaten nobody significant.
Certainly true, especially with the epic FAIL of Illinois, but like, since BHGP is playing the whatif game (as in: what if Stanzi wasn't Stanzi and didn't throw so many Stanziballs):
In those three games [where Stanzi was being Stanzi], each of whom was an unranked opponent now and at kickoff, the average margin of victory has been five points. Obviously, you can't take points off the board in the middle of the game and expect the rest of it to play out exactly the same, but if Iowa wins all three of those games by an average of 12 points instead, we've got a much better comfort level and maaaaybe a better ranking thus far.
Let's try this on: what if Penn State won that wretched game? Would we still be considered a team with a good record and no quality wins? Depends on whether you would say that about Ohio State, because their best win is against Wisconsin. And guess what:
Iowa (non-PSU) wins (ranks are from Sagarin):
1 point win over vs. 68 Northern Iowa
32 point win over vs. 80 Iowa State
10 point win over vs. 20 Arizona (generous, I think)
3 point win over vs. 98 Arkansas State
2 point win over vs. 37 Michigan
Wisconsin's wins:
8 point vs. 59 Northern Illinois
3 point vs. 34 Fresno State
30 point vs. 169 Wofford
8 point vs. 44 Michigan State
3 point vs. 54 Minnesota
To summarize:
| Team | Avg. Opp. Rank | Median Opp. Rank | Average MOV |
| Iowa | 60.6 | 68 | 9.6 |
| Wisconsin | 72.4 | 56 | 10.4 |
In other words: Iowa = Wisconsin.
And guess what, they play this week in Madison. The line? Wisconsin is favored by three points, which also happens to be the bump for home field advantage. In other words: Iowa = Wisconsin.
Speaking of mixed emotions. TNIAAM is a great blog, effing hilarious, but I take no joy in this news:
Syracuse is talkng with Penn State and Miami (as in the U) about future games.
Virginia is our "marquee" game in 2012 and 2013, Rutgers in 2014 and 2015; this better be an addition to one of those seasons and not a standalone feature for 2016 and 2017.
Pressin'. Detailing a Paterno press conference isn't much fun, but luckily there are about two dozen people that do it for us. Highlights of the highlights:
Joe gave great praise to Bill Kenney, offensive line coach, saying; "I hate to admit that about an Irish guy but that’s what you gotta do once in awhile."
Knowledge Timmons should be OK this week.
Hull is the perfect person to have on this team, good leader, student, solid football player.
Ryan Breen likely will not overtake Colin Wagner as the kickoff man, Joe says he has a great leg but he is too inconsistent.
Here's more if you just can't get enough.
Mumme Poll is out. Via GTP:
| Rank | Team | Votes (top five) |
| 1 | Alabama | 444 (443) |
| 2 | Florida | 444 (441) |
| 3 | Texas | 440 (400) |
| 4 | Virginia Tech | 433 (350) |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 399 (165) |
| 6 | Iowa | 386 |
| 7 | Boise State | 377 |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 350 |
| 9 | Miami | 348 |
| 10 | Ohio State | 323 |
| 11 | LSU | 298 |
| 12 | Oregon | 271 |
| 13 | TCU | 264 |
| 14 | Nebraska | 113 |
| 15 | Penn State | 92 |
Just to clarify, the mission statement:
The Mumme Poll is an ongoing attempt… to construct a viable method to rank Division 1 college football teams without the bias and potential conflicts of interest that affect other polls, particularly the USA Today Coaches Poll.
The idea would be to let coaches vote this way rather than the traditional method, which would simplify the process, make it more difficult (although probably not impossible) to game, and still produce a sane result. I find the current Mumme Poll very sane.
I will say this, though: I'm surprised people are willing to give VT, USC and in many ways Oregon a pass on their loss but insist on being stubborn with Iowa. I'm probably not helping with segments like the one above, but they are undefeated and have a quality win.
In scores of other games. Rushing plays from the shotgun average more than passing plays? Bowman on the NFL.
56 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
uhh. where's Brandon Fera?
Redshirt….a kicker?
"We are not normal. We are legends. We are Penn State." - Deon Butler
by Stately NOVA Lion on Oct 14, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions
oops....i mean Anthony Fera
"We are not normal. We are legends. We are Penn State." - Deon Butler
by Stately NOVA Lion on Oct 14, 2009 9:32 AM EDT reply actions
Everybody can't be the perfect person in the world...
but Josh Hull can.
by jimbo2psu on Oct 14, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Enjoy this, for those of you with tickets
Saturday, Oct 17
High: 37 °F RealFeel®: 33 °F
Cloudy and cold with a chance for rain and snow
BSD
You know
it’s not that unreasonable to hope for Iowa to fall this weekend, then get Tressel’d @ Ohio State.
Penn Stat hasn’t proven they can beat everyone on the schedule, but they have an opportunity to duck out of a bad Saturday.
BSD
Virginia / Rutgers
Is anyone pleased with the fact that we have those two on our schedule in the coming years? Honestly, just like we did with Syracuse last year, we’ve wasted an opportunity where we’ll actually travel on mid-range ACC and Big East teams. Anytime we’re actually able to travel for a non-con game, it should be somewhere respectable, and I fear that, unless there is a dramatic upswing for each of these teams for several years prior to these matchups, these games are going to be viewed like Syracuse was this and last year.
I have to agree with this. It’s one thing to take a chance on Cuse after they finished a 10 win season, but it’s another to schedule teams that seem to hover around 6-8 wins on a consistent basis and are prone to free-falls like Virginia just pulled.
BSD
UVA drives me up the wall...
year after year they embarrass themselves the first 3 games, then wake up and beat somebody they have no business beating and then somehow stumble into a barely winning season – just good enough for Al Groh to keep his job.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
It's fair to wonder about Iowa.
They squeaked by UNI, blew out an awful ISU team, beat Arizona, futzed around with Arky State, and barely escaped Michigan at home despite all those turnovers and other gifts from the Wolverines. In reality, it’s not that impressive.
Oh, and they beat us. So it’s fair to wonder about us, too. Shit, our biggest win is against either Syracuse or Illinois.
Iowa’s biggest strength just happened to match up with our greatest weakness. That, and they outcoached the crap out of us (agaaaaaaaaaaain.), especially with respect to noticing that Nick Sukay had been getting pushed back on his punt protection in previous games.
by Run Up The Score on Oct 14, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions
Yeah, but who (outside of Bama, Florida, and Texas) is that impressive?
A long season to go. I happen to think Iowa will win this weekend, and am now feeling pretty solid about that due to their being an underdog.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe they're an underdog.
That might be some sweet action.
by Jeff Junstrom on Oct 14, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree
I’m really starting to think MSU will beat them, not Wiscy. I just can’t trust Bielema as a favorite.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm starting to sign in with this too
We need quite a few more losses to occur, but I’m still not sure which is more reasonable to hope to occur:
- Wiscy beating Iowa and losing to Meatchicken or;
- Iowa beating Wiscy and losing to OSU AND Sparty (or Minny)
Obviously, I’ll take either.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
I’m not trusting Sparty to do anything they are suppose to.
Right now we got to root for our chances we we have them. Chances of the tiebreaker (if it comes to that, I’m not expecting it to) boiling down to the BCS rank are very good. If that’s the case, Wisconsin doesn’t stand a chance. You’ll have a couple of one loss teams with Penn State being the first one to lose, that helps in the human polls big-time.
BSD
I’m not trusting Sparty to do anything they are suppose to.
That’s a wise man, right there.
I’m less concerned about bowl games and tiebreakers, more immediately interested in a Big Ten Championship. One I can guiltlessly rock a teeshirt to. A three-way tie that includes Iowa would leave me more than a little conflicted, but in any case, we need them to lose at least once, else…moo.
Also moo: if we do not win out. I think we can. But I need to see more. Starting this weekend with Minny. Who I freakin Hate!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
has anyone heard how long caper is gonna be out?
they lost that nichol kid…and cousins still has a bum ankle but will play. looks like even though they had about 1000 injuries last week, other than the kid who’s out for the season, they might not be that bad off.
We decide when you hear the snap count...
3 point underdog, FWIW
.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
But isn't that fishy
That looks like the classic bet of Vegas trying to sucker people into betting on Iowa. I know I am reading too much into this, but there’s a reason sports books never ever lose.
yep, and that reason is they make money on both sides of the bet
and more often than not turn a profit. Sports books DO lose on individual games, though.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 14, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
No one in the BT
is without a glaring weakness. I’d say we’re screwed because we lost to a questionable Iowa team, but the more I think about that game the less concerned I am about what it taught us.
BSD
I just wander if weather had anything to do with it.
If you replay that game on a dry field and no rain does our spread HD run better. That being said if we didn’t face the cupcakes at the beginning of the year would it have been different. Just some thoughts to wander about.
I doubt it.
The o-line’s footwork and leverage looked fine against Michigan State last year. It was horrible this year. It’s not the arrow (the field), it’s the shooter (the o-line).
Ton make a tangential point: you know what would be nice at some point? Some sunshine. This may end up being the worst year for weather in PSU football history.
I agree
remember we had a totally different O-line last year. I just think playing those teams that we did at the start of the year really didn’t work our O-line much. I don’t know how much of a different in size and strength Illinois’s D-line compares to Iowa’s D-line but what a difference one game makes.
That field is in better shape than you think.
I think it was just a matter of not being good enough on the offensive line and trying to be too cute with using Clark as a runner. That’s it. That’s your game.
by Run Up The Score on Oct 14, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Our field better be in the best shape all the time
With the excellence that we have at PSU in the turfgrass field, we better have the best damn playing surface there is. (unless another school hired PSU grads to do their turf too that is)
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
don't we actually have a pretty crummy field?
with terrible drainage? I know our crew is really good at protecting it, but I recall reading a few articles saying how bad the drainage is on the field (like the game in 93, was it?)
Of course, maybe that’s what makes the program so good, having to do exceptional work on a less than stellar field.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 14, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If i recall correctly (which I likely don't)
Many of those issues have been rectified? I think the field is in a lot better shape than it used to be.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
It's not the field...
Football Fields “live” for something like 4-5 years. They’re essentially giant fishbowls, and every now and then you have to change the water.
And yes, I do this for a living (Golf Course Super…)
by stonewall435 on Oct 14, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Me too, actually
Aside from possible DC composure issues in the OSU game. I do think we’re improving, and will continue to. Troutman seems far more capable than Stank, and I can see some synergy evolving from Landolt across to My Boy Lou. Talent, experience and injuries leave a gaping question mark at RT, but I’ve actually seen improvement (and Lou whiffing less on his pull blocks—he’s really more tough guy than athlete) across the line. TE’s are beginning to dominate, and DC seems more inclined to use them in checkdowns after watching the Iowa film. Royster seems to be settling into a rhythm with his blockers as well. Chaz Powell keeps shaking off the flu, Justin Brown continues to power-block downfield and maybe overtake Zug on the depth chart, things could be looking up.
Switching fields, I think I see Lattimore growing his performance into his Jersey Look; Jordan Hill looked like he fits real nicely into LJ’s rotation as the 4th DT (damn, he gets low); and Sukay has enough film of himself closing with poor angles, that I won’t be surprised if he gets a little better. And getting Lee back to play alongside Bowman is gonna do wonders for the attacks Scrap can send in.
This weekend’s performance will tell me much more, but I’m guessing it may allow me to have a tiny sip of KoolAid.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
I think we roll this weekend.
I’m not sure who, other than Ohio State, has the defense for me to expect major issues. Not saying we can’t lose to everyone left on the schedule save Indy and NW, but no one has all the tools right now.
BSD
Also, someone is going to reply to this and say we better beware of NW. They (1) lost to ’Cuse and (2) have beat their 2 MAC opponents by a combined 13 points. Those two MAC opponents are likely to finish at the bottom of the MAC standings this year.
BSD
Its not the "Who" for NW
but the “where” and “when.”
PSU has an atrocious record the second of back-to-back conference road games. It’s something like 2-8, and one of those wins was MRob at Illinois in 2005 in the most lopsided PSU win this decade.
Of course I'm home. I'm always home. I'm uncool.
by WestPointLion on Oct 14, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Have faith in the coaching staff.
Illinois 2009 proved to me that they can break a game open on the road in the second half. No reason they can’t do that in Evanston too.
1 game against an awful defense
does not fath make.
Northwestern's defense isn't all that good either, is it?
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, I'm not even that worried about tOSU, worried but not that much
Yeah their defense will likely stop our O, but I am very confident that our D can stop their O just as easily. Our secondary might not be stout, but does anyone believe Pryor will make us pay there? I’d say we match up evenly, give the nod to us because it is at home.
I would put our front seven(as long as Lee is in there) up against anyone else’s in the league, maybe possibly in the country even(I don’t watch enough games outside the big ten to say).
The only way we lose again is if we hit a crazy hot QB a la Mark Sanchez.
Hot as in playing well, not charming good looks.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
ah, I thought you meant hot as in "police on their tail"
y’know, cuz everybody kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever.
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 14, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
By the time Nov 7th rolls around
Our offensive line could be in pretty good shape. I still wonder how that Iowa game would have played out if it was later in the season. 3 games into the season with a pretty green offensive line just spelled disaster.
They’ve improved each week, so there’s no reason to think that their progress won’t continue.
Agreed x's 10 Ruts...
“WHY” our coaches DIDN’T call a T.O. when they SHOULD HAVE seen the huge miss-match on Sukay just pisses me off to no end!
"...Drink'n Blue Kool - Aid; One Sip @ a Time..."
by BlueWhiteLife on Oct 14, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
It's extremely fair to wonder about Iowa
We have not looked impressive most of the year. And while it’s all well and good to talk about being undefeated, if (when) we do lose, it’s going to come down hard.
The problem then is how badly it’s going to reflect on everybody. The national perception is going to be just as bad as always, as any loss by PSU or Iowa will simply throw gas on the perception that neither of us are very good.
It never gets to be easy
by chitownhawkeye on Oct 14, 2009 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Not related to this post, but it is football...
USC or Notre Dame?????
"The sea was angry that day, my friends." G. Costanza
I want them both to lose...
it is somehow more satisfactory to see Fat Charlie and squad de Jtot Notre Dame get buried, though
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Oct 14, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The plague
But if I have to pick one, USC, just to get Lou Holth to shut up (even if only temporarily). USC’s already had their point-and-laugh moment, Notre Dame needs one.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
SHOP THE BLACK SHOE DIARIES STORE
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
