Nitt Picks Is Wondering About Iowa

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Yes I love these things.

Fun with whatifs.  I hate to even do this, but I got to thinking after this lead in from TDG:

Penn State is halfway through the season sits at 5-1 having beaten nobody significant.

Certainly true, especially with the epic FAIL of Illinois, but like, since BHGP is playing the whatif game (as in: what if Stanzi wasn't Stanzi and didn't throw so many Stanziballs):

In those three games [where Stanzi was being Stanzi], each of whom was an unranked opponent now and at kickoff, the average margin of victory has been five points. Obviously, you can't take points off the board in the middle of the game and expect the rest of it to play out exactly the same, but if Iowa wins all three of those games by an average of 12 points instead, we've got a much better comfort level and maaaaybe a better ranking thus far.

Let's try this on: what if Penn State won that wretched game?  Would we still be considered a team with a good record and no quality wins?  Depends on whether you would say that about Ohio State, because their best win is against Wisconsin.  And guess what:

Iowa (non-PSU) wins (ranks are from Sagarin):

1 point win over vs. 68  Northern Iowa
32 point win over vs. 80  Iowa State
10 point win over vs. 20  Arizona (generous, I think)
3 point win over vs. 98  Arkansas State
2 point win over vs. 37  Michigan

Wisconsin's wins:

8 point vs. 59  Northern Illinois
3 point vs. 34  Fresno State
30 point vs. 169  Wofford
8 point vs. 44  Michigan State
3 point vs. 54  Minnesota

To summarize:

Team Avg. Opp. Rank Median Opp. Rank Average MOV
Iowa 60.6 68 9.6
Wisconsin 72.4 56 10.4

 

In other words: Iowa = Wisconsin.

And guess what, they play this week in Madison.  The line?  Wisconsin is favored by three points, which also happens to be the bump for home field advantage.  In other words: Iowa = Wisconsin.

Speaking of mixed emotions.  TNIAAM is a great blog, effing hilarious, but I take no joy in this news:

Syracuse is talkng with Penn State and Miami (as in the U) about future games.

Virginia is our "marquee" game in 2012 and 2013, Rutgers in 2014 and 2015; this better be an addition to one of those seasons and not a standalone feature for 2016 and 2017.

Pressin'. Detailing a Paterno press conference isn't much fun, but luckily there are about two dozen people that do it for us.  Highlights of the highlights:

Joe gave great praise to Bill Kenney, offensive line coach, saying; "I hate to admit that about an Irish guy but that’s what you gotta do once in awhile."

Knowledge Timmons should be OK this week.

Hull is the perfect person to have on this team, good leader, student, solid football player.

Ryan Breen likely will not overtake Colin Wagner as the kickoff man, Joe says he has a great leg but he is too inconsistent.

Here's more if you just can't get enough.

Mumme Poll is out.  Via GTP:

Rank Team Votes (top five)
1 Alabama 444 (443)
2 Florida 444 (441)
3 Texas 440 (400)
4 Virginia Tech 433 (350)
5 Southern Cal 399 (165)
6 Iowa 386
7 Boise State 377
8 Cincinnati 350
9 Miami 348
10 Ohio State 323
11 LSU 298
12 Oregon 271
13 TCU 264
14 Nebraska 113
15 Penn State 92

 

Just to clarify, the mission statement:

The Mumme Poll is an ongoing attempt… to construct a viable method to rank Division 1 college football teams without the bias and potential conflicts of interest that affect other polls, particularly the USA Today Coaches Poll.

The idea would be to let coaches vote this way rather than the traditional method, which would simplify the process, make it more difficult (although probably not impossible) to game, and still produce a sane result.  I find the current Mumme Poll very sane.

I will say this, though: I'm surprised people are willing to give VT, USC and in many ways Oregon a pass on their loss but insist on being stubborn with Iowa.  I'm probably not helping with segments like the one above, but they are undefeated and have a quality win.

In scores of other games.   Rushing plays from the shotgun average more than passing plays?  Bowman on the NFL.

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