Minnesota Preview By The Numbers
by BSD on Oct 14, 2009 12:01 PM EDT
in Game Previews
22 comments
Legend
Difference <25 in National Rank = Push
Difference >25 in National Rank = 
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Differences >100 in National Rank =
Note:The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.
More analysis after the jump.
Advantages For Minnesota
Clearly, the Gophers will have an advantage in the kicking game. Usually this is just a function of Penn State being really bad, but in this case the Gophers are also really good ranking in the top 25 in net punting, punt returns, and kickoff returns. It would not surprise me one bit if Minnesota got a special teams touchdown.
I've been scratching my head trying to figure out why Penn State's net punting number is so bad when Jeremy Boone is averaging 48.1 yards per punt with only five returns on the year, and then I realized the 53 yard blocked punt against Iowa counted as a punt return pulling Boone's numbers down like cement shoes. So the advantage for Minnesota in returning punts may be a bit skewed.
Advantages For Penn State
Just about everything other than special teams. It kind of looks like Minnesota can hold their own on defense, but if you look more closely at the rankings, there are several categories where Penn State is just one or two rankings away from earning another .
Looking at Minnesota's offensive numbers just confirms what I've already suspected. They are a one dimensional team that revolves around Eric Decker. Their rushing offense is terrible. Their overall passing numbers are so-so, but Decker's individual numbers are unreal (46 catches, 689 yds, 5 TD). To give you a sense of how big that is, quarterback Adam Weber only has 1224 yards and 6 TD, so Decker is obviously his favorite target. If the Penn State defense can't shut down an offense like this, I'll be shocked.
The glaring advantage I see for Penn State is on third down conversions. Penn State is ranked #3 on offense while Minnesota is ranked #112 on defense. In the redzone, Penn State scores touchdowns 65% of the time while Minnesota gives up touchdowns 65% of the time. The NCAA doesn't track this statistic, but I think this is a big advantage for Penn State. It tells me Penn State should be able to put together some long sustained drives and control this game rather easily.
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my gawd
I just don’t understand how we can be THAT bad in punt/kick return
99th in punt and 119th in kickoff returns?
someone give me an excuse for that please.
return plays and return blocking needs intense hard hitting guys. are we a soft team?
by hbeach08 on Oct 14, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This year vs Last year
- Mauti and Colasanti and Stupar = owned 100% of the special team BEASTS last year
- this yr: Mauti (obvious knee injury/out) and with Lee’s sprain recovery, CC and Stupar have moved up in the LB depth chart
"...Drink'n Blue Kool - Aid; One Sip @ a Time..."
by BlueWhiteLife on Oct 14, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's one excuse
and thank you, good points.
by hbeach08 on Oct 14, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hate to think of it as an "excuse"
PSU should have the capacity to load special teams every year with the young dynamos that are a bit buried in the depth charts. No doubt, some guys are just gunners. We just happened to be fortunate to have 3 that were extraordinary at not only being fast, but having the full capacity to consistently take-off @ the kick, avoid tie-up blocks and then carry the speed/momentum to track-down the returner and consistantly lay the smack-down on them!
/ yeah, I recall and miss ^THIS just a little…
"...Drink'n Blue Kool - Aid; One Sip @ a Time..."
by BlueWhiteLife on Oct 14, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
^THIS
I did an interview with The Daily Gopher this week where I made that exact point. Mauti and Stupar were monsters on special teams last year along with Knowledge Timmons and A.J. Wallace as the gunners. With the linebacker and cornerback depth issues this year those guys have been pulled for some younger players who aren’t getting the job done.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Oct 14, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gerald Hodges
We think Hodges’ future probably will be at linebacker, to answer that in a quick way. I think he’s a big kid who likes to hit people, and he can play in space. Nowadays with all of the spreads that you’re looking at, you’ve got to have a linebacker who can handle some of the offensive sets at that position, which basically takes a kid who is a pretty good athlete, who is close to being a strong safety.
I feel like I’ve seen him out there a few times but if this true, is it asking too much that he follow the progression of Stupar, Mauti, etc. and be the next player to fit the role of special teams beast?
by LegalLion on Oct 14, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we have a special teams coach?
The answer was no in 2005, and I haven’t thought about again until now.
by Mr. Rosewater on Oct 14, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Straight from the gopsusports roster..
Joe Paterno – Head Coach
Dick Anderson – Asst. Coach, OL/Guards & Centers
Tom Bradley – Asst. Coach, Defense/Cornerbacks
Kermit Buggs – Asst. Coach, Safeties
Galen Hall – Asst. Coach, Offense/Running Backs
Larry Johnson – Asst. Coach, Defensive Line
Bill Kenney – Asst. Coach, Off. Tackles/Tight Ends
Mike McQueary – Asst. Coach, WR/Recruiting Coordinator
Jay Paterno – Asst. Coach, Quarterbacks
John Thomas – Strength and Conditioning Coach
Ron Vanderlinden – Asst. Coach, Linebackers
Deus nobiscum, quis contra?
by chocochuck02 on Oct 14, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
But most, if not all, college programs don’t have special teams coaches due to coaching staff size limitations.
At PSU, different coaches are in charge of different aspects of special teams. Fran Ganter used to be in charge of the place kickers, for example.
I think the main special teams coaches currently are McQueary and LJ.
by jtw126 on Oct 14, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buggs was doing kickoffs at one point
Not sure if he still is
by speedomike on Oct 14, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lynn vs. Decker
I’m excited to see Lynn shut down another great WR, after he did extremely well against Benn.
I’ll have to rewatch the Illinois game but it’s my memory that Benn basically disappeared when Lynn was covering him — and that the big plays by Benn were when he was in the slot and a LB or Safety had to cover him (also Timmons struggled to tackle Benn).
Anyway, this is another ideal matchup to see exactly where Lynn stands — because thus far I’ve been extremely impressed with him.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
by millzners on Oct 14, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good point
I’ll keep an eye out for that as well. He has been extraordinary in his composure out there so far!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
by jtothep on Oct 14, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I may go for the 8 for my next jersey
I think Lynn has a chance to be a special player
"Wherever you go, Penn State will go with you. You are now a part of her. Her image will be cast in your image. Your reputation will become her reputation."
by noodlebucket on Oct 14, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The gunners
The gunners on the opposing team are not getting bumped at the line and are there for the tackle as soon as the ball is caught. We need to slow them down at the line to give our punt returner space.
by ageing lion on Oct 14, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Has there been any rules
changes for this year where our coaches have been slow to adapt?
The NFL only allows a 2 man wedge vs. 3 last year.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
by rahpsu92 on Oct 14, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ranked 3rd
In Penalty Yds/Game. I knew we weren’t committing many penalties but wow, impressive.
by jigalion on Oct 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
37-13
That’s Phil Steele’s prediction.
by speedomike on Oct 14, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mike
Do you think Minnesota’s Snob-O-Meter gives them an advantage?
I guess reality hurts
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh well
Just callin’ it like I see it. I guess I should give boring interviews like Joe Paterno or something.
Mike
Black Shoe Diaries
by BSD on Oct 14, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That buddylee guy is the same guy who was trying to trash talk on BHGP...
…after Iowa had won 55-0 over Minnesota.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 14, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Snob-O-Meter"
I’m not ashamed, I do look down on the Gophers. They’re a bunch of frozen hillbillies (I know they are not really, I just love that phrase). Also, currently 63% of the posts in that thread are from you guys.
"It was an attrition football game and you know we like that."
by showtime on Oct 15, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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