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Around SBN: Sean Keeley's Week 12 College Football Buffet

Northwestern Preview By The Numbers


Penn State

Value (Nat'l Rank)

Value (Nat'l Rank)

Northwestern

Advantage

Rushing Offense (ypg) 184.4 (29) 117.9 (39) Rushing Defense (ypg) Push
Passing Offense (ypg) 243.8 (37) 220.3 (68) Passing Defense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Pass Efficiency 145.5 (21) 130.3 (73) Pass Efficiency Defense Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Total Offense (ypg) 428.1 (23) 338.1 (46) Total Defense (ypg) Push
Scoring Offense (ppg) 30.3 (32) 23.6 (61) Scoring Defense (ppg) Psulogo_medium
Rushing Defense (ypg) 79.8 (4) 122.3 (92) Rushing Offense (ypg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Passing Defense (ypg) 160.5 (9) 270.4 (23) Passing Offense (ypg) Push
Pass Efficiency Defense 91.7 (4) 132.1 (53) Pass Efficiency Psulogo_medium
Total Defense (ypg) 240.3 (3) 392.6 (49) Total Offense (ypg) Psulogo_medium
Scoring Defense (ppg) 8.9 (1) 27.3 (57) Scoring Offense (ppg) Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Net Punting Yds 32.4 (110) 6.2 (91) Punt Return Yds Push
Punt Return Yds 5.4 (99) 31.8 (116) Net Punting Yds Push
Kickoff Return Yds 17.5 (116) 21.9 (68) Kickoff Return Defense Northwestern_wildcats_logo_mediumNorthwestern_wildcats_logo_medium
Kickoff Return Defense 22.6 (83) 19.1 (103) Kickoff Return Yds Push
Turnover Margin 0.38 (45) 0.13 (61) Turnover Margin Push
Penalty Yds/Game 35.9 (4) 46.1 (27) Penalty Yds/Game Push
Sacks 3.25 (8) 2.25 (78) Sacks Allowed Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Sacks Allowed 1.13 (20) 2.50 (36) Sacks Push
Redzone Offense (%) 0.85 (44) 0.72 (15) Redzone Defense (%) Northwestern_wildcats_logo_medium
Redzone Defense (%) 0.59 (1) 0.90 (19) Redzone Offense (%) Push
Redzone TD % 0.64 0.60 Redzone TD % Defense Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
Redzone TD % Defense 0.29 0.60 Redzone TD % Psulogo_medium
3rd Down Conv. % 53.6 (3) 37.3 (57) 3rd Down Defense % Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium
3rd Down Defense % 30.4 (11) 51.1 (6) 3rd Down Conv. % Push

Legend

Difference <25 in National Rank = Push

Difference >25 in National Rank = Psulogo_medium

Difference >50 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Difference >75 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Differences >100 in National Rank = Psulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_mediumPsulogo_medium

Note: The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgement.

More analysis after the jump.

Star-divide

Worst Matchup

Both teams are terrible in the punting game. This is nothing new for Penn State, but maybe they can improve their numbers this week against the Wildcats.

Best Matchup

Northwestern has a surprisingly potent passing attack. Believe it or not, Northwestern is the highest rated passing team Penn State has faced this year. Unlike Michigan and Illinois who run the spread to set up the running game, Northwestern uses the spread to set up the passing game. This will prove to be the new secondary's toughest test to date.

Advantages for Northwestern

Kickoffs...AGAIN!

Just like every week, Penn State is at a disadvantage in returning kickoffs. Thankfully, due to the defense not giving up a lot of points, they only have to return two or three kicks per game. So this isn't a huge advantage.

I was pretty impressed with Northwestern's stingy redzone defense ranked #15 in the nation, but when I broke it down to see what percentage of opponent trips came away with touchdowns I wasn't so impressed. Three out of every five trips for the opponent ended in six points. That's not very good.

Advantages for Penn State

Pretty much everything on offense and defense. Northwestern is a very good 5-3 team, and they have the stats of a 5-3 team. Nothing attrocious, but nothing they can clearly dominate you with either.

On offense, Daryll Clark should have success in passing the ball against a less than average Wildcat secondary. This should open things up for Royster to have a pretty good day, though probably not spectacular.

On defense, I don't see any point in Northwestern even trying to run the ball. They are not very good to begin with, and against the Penn State defense it will basically be a wasted down.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments  |  Add comment |

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Kafka is starting right?

So we should basically go with the same D theory as against “The Best QB in the Big Ten” and use the four down linemen to collapse the pocket, but contain him in it, and blitz on occasion to shake things up.

On a side note, does anyone else think of Kefka from FFVI when they see this dude’s name?

by psume06 on Oct 28, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Too bad real best quarterback and "The Best QB in the Big Ten" aren't the same thing.

Wasn’t Pryor already named BTPOTY? Or was he already named preseason BTPOTY for next year? I get confused easily. Like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli.

by PSUJunny05 on Oct 28, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dumbest award ever

Do we really need a preseason player of the year? What is the purpose? The only thing it can do is blow up in your face.

by BSD on Oct 28, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That IS the purpose

It’s all a practical joke

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 28, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In that case...

it’s HILARIOUS.

May no act of ours bring shame.

by mushdamma on Oct 28, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dumbest award

Isn’t that the modern Heisman?

by STU Boy on Oct 28, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Matt Millen

dis-respectfully disagrees with you

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 28, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope, I think of Franz Kafka.

I imagine the entire offensive line waking up Saturday morning to find that they have turned into a monstrous insect.

by Cairo on Oct 28, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Ugh.

I read it has a college sophmore. I can’t imagine reading it when I was 14.

by Cairo on Oct 28, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kafkaesque = jNW

from Wikipedia:

The adjective refers to anything suggestive of Kafka, especially his nightmarish type of narration, in which characters lack a clear course of action, the ability to see beyond immediate events, and the possibility of escape.

Sounds about right for a jNW QB.

by Aaron PSU on Oct 28, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I pretty much

expect to see opposing team pictures on most/all of the special team categories. (Barely) Pleasantly surprised.

by GreatScawt on Oct 28, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If ever there was a week to get our punt return game going

this would be it. Also, does PSU still remember how to play in weather other than cold rain? They may be confused by the shiny sphere in the sky.

by cpm126 on Oct 28, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

zOMG what's that flaming ball of fire hovering over us

EVERYBODY RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!!!

"Every player we have, someone—maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone—poured their life and soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world." - Joe Paterno

by Horse N Buggy on Oct 28, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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