On Pace for 10-2

by georgialion on Oct 4, 2009 11:04 AM EDT Comment 62 comments

With the win next week vs. Illinois 2A, State will be 5-1, which leaves us on pace for 10-2.

What team will we lose to get that mark? Minny, homecoming game 3-2, sorry Decker, PSU wins. At ScumRod, they lose next week to Iowa, and their confidence starts fading. We win that one by 10, and we STILL have the biggest stadium, so choke on that. At Northwestern, hmm, they sit at 3-2. Trap game between Scum and Tosu, could be here. Tosu, wish it was a night game, like 8 oclock. 50-50 here on W-L. Beat Indiana at home and then beat the scowl in East Lansing, and call 17 timeouts at the end while winning by 50.

Does 10-2 get us in the BCS? Right now, Iowa and Tosu would be ahead of us. What about Wisky? Waiting for their mid-season meltdown to start any game now..

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I tend to agree

Not because I think we’re great (I DO think we have the talent at the skill positions, but the lines both need to get better), but because OSU is the only remaining team that scares me. Meatchicken is not as good as tWWL would have us believe, MSU MAY be decent by the time we get them, but I don’t think so. Minn. lost to a Cal team that is clearly not even decent.

by psume06 on Oct 4, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

10-2 = no bcs

OSU is the clear favorite but they are far from unbeatable. I thought for sure we ran into an unexpectedly nasty defense last week and that Iowa would surprise some people…now it looks like they’re going to drop at least 1 or 2 games they shouldn’t, plus Ohio State. How do you play so dominant on D one week and then suck so bad against two of the worst teams anyone in the Big Ten plays this year?

BSD

by Kevin HD on Oct 4, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree...

I think we need to win-out to make a BCS game. If we are 6-2 in the maligned Big-11, we will not make a BCS game (unless by some quirk, we win the conference at 6-2).

However, it is way too early to worry about that. We need to take care of what we control and win each week. We’re only in fourth place in the Big 11 right now. Big hill to climb.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Oct 4, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa played down to the level of their opponent again

According to comments at BHGP, they were sloppy, the run blocking was so-so, and the linebackers are still so-so in pass coverage. Basically, the way Iowa usually plays against cupcakes.

Also, one guy over there said “I kinda want Stanzi to get hit by a car.”

FWIW.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

Did we play down to Iowa’s level last week, or did they play up to us?

From where I sat, I thought Iowa was very strong and talented on defense. But, obviously, they aren’t garnering any respect outside Happy Valley. Sounds like even not much respect in Iowa City.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Oct 4, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They played up to us

They always do, don’t they?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think and hope you're right

I was very impressed with our performance against a poor Illinois team. But if we all remember, that was one of the games that scared us all Summer.

If we can get Lee healthy and playing with Bowman and, gotta give him credit, Hull, I think our defense will be very nasty. The DE’s showed up last night.

Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi

by PaJoe on Oct 4, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In defense of our worry about Illinois

we had no idea they’d be THAT bad, especially on D. Good Juice showed up for a good bit of our game yesterday, which was a good test, but Bad Juice has been playing the rest of the games.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We gave up

Iowa started to catch up and then go ahead, and the team thought, “here we go again.”
You could see it in our guys faces and body language—especially Clark.

by confirmy on Oct 5, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa had a let down game

After beating us they were bound to look bad against whoever they played next. I know this is pointless, but if we had not beat Ohio State last year, instead beating another average team we would have won that game. Iowa will look good again next week.

"How many things do you do where you are involved with 110,000 other people on the same page? Unless you're in an English class cheating with 30 other guys."

by psu on Oct 4, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still don't think we would have won against Iowa

Not with Concussed Clark.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I picture "Concussed Clark" as Daryll's evil twin

I hate that guy.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the difference

Between Concussed Clark v Iowa 2008
and
Wet Clark v Iowa 2009?

Shouldn’t we just call that evil twin ‘Playing Against Iowa Clark?’

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shit, you're right

We should bring back Morelli or even Kevin Thompson. At least they could beat Iowa.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kevinlolzthompsonhardyhar

that’s scary that that is true.

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just checked the stats on that game for morelli

233 yds, 2 ints, 2 sacks, 1 td (to d-will)

rodney kinlaw – 168 yds
royster – 88 yds

2 kevin kelly field goals

…wait what was my point? this looks like one of morelli’s better games! can plum put him on loaner next season?

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was the game where many fans booed him when he missed a wide open Kinlaw on a 3rd down.

I will never forget that.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm surprised you can remember one specific bad pass

when there is just a treasure trove of other greats to choose from!!

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was just too surreal and too much an encapsulation of that season

Kinlaw was WIDE OPEN, Morelli missed him by a mile, and then he trudged with head hanging to the sideline as the crowd lustily booed him.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now that that's out of my system, I'll go back to forgetting that any of that happened

Thanks.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

for ‘lustily’

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$$$

Never underestimate the power of money. 10-2 can get us a BCS bid (depending on who else is 10-2, of course). We travel too well to be not in the conversation.

by The Mess on Oct 4, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Iowa will lose to UM this week

Iowa will finish behind us in the Big Ten this year just like they did last year after they defeated us. We will finish either 2nd or 1st in the Big Ten with either a 10-2 or 11-1 record depending on whether or not we show up for the OSU game. Last week’s loss to Iowa will have the same impact as last year’s loss t Iowa did. It will keep us out of the MNC picture but it won’t hurt us beyond that IMO.

by RNF18 on Oct 4, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that

MSU’s defense has been bad most of the year, and they stuffed Forcier & Co. until late in the game. Iowa’s defense is quite a bit better all around. They were sloppy against Arky State, but they only gave 14 points (Stanzi threw a pick six, and a missed FG hurt them), and they really missed their corner, Prater, who Ferentz says will be back.

And if Stanzi can his head out of his ass they can certainly throw the ball on that porous secondary.

Iowa will drop 1, maybe 2 just because they play down to their opponents far too often for their own good.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Iowa’s weakness might be offensive consistency, but I don’t see Michigan being able to handle their defense, or Michigan’s D doing anything impressive against Iowa’s O.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa ...

… wins the Big Ten.

"I want to eat some dessert." - Brandon Ware

by The Man with One Black Shoe on Oct 5, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said this to Joe from Boalsburg, and I'll say the same thing here

lets not let one win against a team with a crappy defense and a “let’s roll the dice and decide how we play this week” offense give us too much hope or overconfidence. I’m excited by our improvements, but it’s far to early to be discussing bowls, be it BCS or tie-in. Yes, 10-2 is still quite possible, and is what I thought we would go this year, but let’s focus on the improvements of the team and not the record, it can only lead to disappointment. Save the bowl predictions until after MSU.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's never too early to discuss bowls

Didn’t SI make their bowl picks back in August?

"The sea was angry that day, my friends." G. Costanza

by NJ lion on Oct 4, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are using too much rational thought

As fans it is our duty to completely overreact to every single win and loss as if the world depended on it. You cannot change this.

"How many things do you do where you are involved with 110,000 other people on the same page? Unless you're in an English class cheating with 30 other guys."

by psu on Oct 4, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why save predictions

dawson is a debbie downer. predictions are what makes college football FUN. After all have we not been talking about Alabama next year? Talk about team improvements and You speculate, revise, and repeat..

by georgialion on Oct 4, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't like being a downer

One, it makes taking any loss a little easier (assuming we have any others). I got too sure of the team before Iowa and took that loss pretty hard.

Second, I just want to keep a level head. I’m extremely excited that we showed a ton of improvement in the last game, I just don’t let one game go to my head and automatically lead me to believe that we’re going 10-2 or better (and if you honestly wanted my gun-to-my-head prediction at the moment, it would be 10-2). If we show the same sort of consistency and blow out EIU and Minny, then my confidence level in the team will go up, but right now I think it’s too early to make predictions when the team has literally just shown dominance in one game against a mid-level Big Ten team (no offense to Illinois who could be a top B10 team minus Zook).

I’ve been burned by overconfidence in the past, and it hurts and leaves scars.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"I just don't let one game go to my head"

yet that’s exactly what you’re doing. You are letting the Iowa game get to your head. While we can still obviously lose to any other team on our schedule (though some are more likely than others) I still think we’re as good or better than any of the other teams on our schedule. I’d say the scariest game is OSU, but they look like we do: good defense, with a lot of problems on offense, and it will come down to how the teams play that day.

Michigan is scary just because they always seem to find a way to beat us unless they’re having the worst season in their history, and it is at Michigan. I don’t believe they’re as good as people think, though. Northwestern could be a trap game, and we seem to not play well in Evanston even with our wins. MSU, well if they can improve a lot by then, then maybe. I’d hope we improve too. Also an away game for us, though.

But still, I’d expect us to be favored in all but OSU, and even OSU we might still get the nod.

So really right now we are still on pace for 11-1. Do I expect that? Not really, but I don’t expect 10-2 any more (and I expect 9-3 even less). All are possible.

So yeah, don’t let one game go to your head.

by The JuggerNitt on Oct 5, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll say it for rambler

carr beats penn state. michigan does not.

is that about right?

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Carr owns Penn State, Michigan does not. There’s a difference. I don’t think Paterno will coach the same way. It was a matter of pride for him.

Hopefully, we’ll win so I can mock M fans for saying “We’ve won 8 out of the last 10” as if means crap. CFB is a vacuum.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To clarify

Michigan can beat Penn State, but neither Moeller nor RichRod have the same mental edge that Carr had.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll just call it on myself

EPIC RAMBLER QUOTE FAIL

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

10-2 only guarantees you a BCS bid if you are an SEC team... you know better than to ask that

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's all really dependent on what everyone does

But two Big Ten teams in the BCS is a very safe bet because so many of the top Big Ten teams have huge fan bases that travel well. About the only way it doesn’t happen is if a non-BCS conference champ gets an autobid (which usually happens, but Boise looked shaky this week vs. an FCS team, and TCU has some tough MWC games coming up) and ND is BCS eligible (which they may be if they keep winning, but the way they’re playing, I just can’t seem them doing that; going 3-1 in relatively high-scoring one-score games against average teams doesn’t bode well) and the Big Ten doesn’t get a team in the title game (a Big Ten team in the title game doesn’t seem likely right now, but it’s not too improbable).

by drothgery on Oct 4, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm, didn't tOSU get in the Fiesta last year with 10-2?

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was being a smartass...

that and tOSU always gets a BCS bid so they can be sacrificed to some SEC / Big 12 team…

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

As soon as I re-read your post, I saw the sarcasm. My bad.

And good point on tOSU being the sacrificial lamb.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no sweat... yeah, them BCS planners know that tOSU travels well

and loses well, to boot… I wish I had a decent editor cause this thing would be wearing a Buckeye helmet

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No it's not a good point

Ohio State won their first four BCS games (2 vs. Big 12 teams) before dropping three in a row from 2006-2008.

by drothgery on Oct 5, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

besides that MNC with that wonderful PI call against Miami

the only other game I remember is the Hawk and Brady Quinn’s sister deal… I honestly cannot remember any other game and neither does anyone else outside of that fanbase. People do, however, remember the MNC games v the SEC and how it has shaped the current image of the Big11

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 5, 2009 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2004 Fiesta Bowl, Kansas State

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And they remember the LSU game as something that didn't happen, too

Mythology says it was a beatdown like the Florida game, rather than the reality where it was a game decided by two touchdowns that OSU was in for pretty much the whole game.

by drothgery on Oct 5, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My gawd

Now here’s an argument that’s already been beat to death.

Calling JNitt…

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I smell 9-3

We drop tOSU and either Minny or NW

We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.

by psuwxman on Oct 4, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As long as we then win our bowl game, i will be fine with that.

a 10 in the win column just looks so much prettier than a 9.

Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

by Roland86 on Oct 4, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

We would likely be in… what, the Outback Bowl at 9-3? Or the Champs Sports?

I guess that would hinge on how the conference standings shook out and how many Big Ten teams made a BCS game.

We are gonna shock them with 5,000 mega watts of raw ROO POWER.

by psuwxman on Oct 4, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

blasphemer!

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BCS History

Two Big 10 teams have made it to BCS Bowl games in four consecutive seasons and 8 times in 11 years. Since the BCS was expanded to 5 bowl games the Big 10 has sent 2 teams every season. If PSU is eligible to be an at large BCS team the only way they aren’t selected is if ND blocks them. The Lions are way too popular to get passed over. If PSU goes 10-2 they will go to a BCS bowl game as an at large.

2008: PSU & OSU
2007: Illinois & OSU
2006: Michigan & OSU
2005: PSU & OSU
2004: Michigan
2003: Michigan & OSU
2002: Iowa & OSU
2001: Illinois
2000: Purdue
1999: Wisconsin & Michigan
1998: Wisconsin & OSU

by catesinator on Oct 5, 2009 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i like osu is always listed last

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question is....

if PSU, Iowa and OSU finished tied for the conference, which two go to the BCS? I presume Iowa goes to the Rose since they haven’t been there since about the Eisenhower administration. Would the Sugar bowl like a PSU v. Bama or OsU v. Bama (or who ever loses the SEC title game) more? Who would the Fiesta prefer (both PSU and OSU have had great success there)? This all presumes ND and/or Boise isn’t/aren’t a candidate.

Never mistake effort for achievement.

by Esteban d' Amur on Oct 5, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Official Big Ten Tiebreaker

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/102204aad.html

         1. An ineligible team shall not be considered in the standings for determination of the conference representative.
         2. If there is a tie for the championship, the winner of the game between these two teams shall represent the conference.
         3. If there is still a tie, or if the tied teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on the percentage basis of all games played.
         4. If there is still a tie, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.
         5. If more than two teams tie for the championship, the same selection procedures shall be followed with the following exceptions:
               1. If three teams are tied, and if one team defeated both of the other teams, then that team shall be the representative.
               2. If three teams are still tied, and if two of the three teams defeated the third team, the third team is eliminated, and the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
               3. If three teams are still tied, and there is a tie game between two of the three teams, or if two or all three of the teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage basis of all games played.
               4. If three teams are still tied, and one of the three teams is eliminated through the percentage basis of all games played, the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
               5. If three teams are still tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.
         6. If four or more teams tie for the championship, the following selection procedure shall be followed:
               1. If one team defeated each of the other three teams, then that team shall be the representative.
               2. If two of the four teams defeated each of the other two teams, the latter two teams shall be eliminated, and the two remaining teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
               3. If three of the four teams defeated the fourth team, the fourth team is eliminated, and the remaining three teams shall revert to the three-team tie procedure.
               4. If there is a tie game between two of the four teams, or if two of the four teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage basis of all games played.
               5. If one of the four teams is eliminated through the percentage basis of all games played, the remaining three teams shall revert to the three-team tie procedure.
               6. If all four teams are still tied and have the same winning percentage of all games played, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.

If we all finish tied, subsection 4 of section 5 finishes it. OSU would be eliminated as their win % would be lower than ours and Iowa’s (with the loss to USC) , and then we’d be eliminated on the head to head with Iowa. I know this doesn’t change WHO gets it, just that they won’t get it on the haven’t been to the Rose Bowl in forever rule, which incidentally, I’ve heard of, but don’t see in that list.

If Bama is the opponent, we’ve got the history, and the fact that they can hype next years game with this. I think we’d win that one. We’ve got more history with the Fiesta, and the 1987 game basically put them on the map as the fourth major bowl. If they consider that, we probably win that one. Problem is the selection order for 2010 is Orange, Fiesta, then Sugar. If OSU gets chosen in the Orange, we’re out. Other problem is SOMETHING is going to happen to make this all moo.

by PSUisMyHeart on Oct 5, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about this situation

iowa beats us
we beat osu
osu beats iowa

if we all end up 10-2, then whoever is ranked higher in the BCS rankings represents the conference. iowa’s late loss to osu takes them out of the race, but i bet osu would still somehow trump us in the standings. still, i guess that would probably get us an at-large bid.

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we're all 10-2

OSU would be 7-1 in conference (or 8-0 if they lose to New Mexico State… lol), ahead of us and Iowa at 6-2 and go to the Rose Bowl. That is, unless we lose to Eastern Illinois next week, in which case we’d be 7-1 in conference, but Iowa would still be 6-2 since they have no more non con games left. That would mean we’d get the Rose Bowl by virtue of the head to head with Ohio State.

by PSUisMyHeart on Oct 5, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well then i guess we better win out

or iowa needs to play scUM and tOSU like they are non-conference 1-AA opponents…one can only hope

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding me?

Sorry, man, but I cannot bear the thought of Brent Musburger (and, hell, Brian Cook for that matter) waxing poetic over the brave true freshman from California, Tate Forcier, who bested the Hawkeyes.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

man i am off today

need to start contemplating the repercussions/results of my actions/statements

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like

Somebody needs a time out.

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa/Penn State finish

Iowa will lose Wisconsin,Ohio State, and a home game they should win but they will choke.
Penn State will be fired up for the big home game against Ohio State, they will win. The Lions will probably lose a “trap game” they should win. Like Northwestern, or Minnesota. In other words, Penn State will choke somewhere along the way. This will give Ohio State yet another Big Ten conference championship.

by mr green on Oct 6, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs