Polls Get Jumpy: Penn State 14th in AP, 12th in Coaches

by Kevin HD on Oct 4, 2009 3:36 PM EDT in Football Comment 42 comments

After taking care of business against Illinois, Penn State moves up to 14^th in the AP poll. They were jumped by Miami, who registered a primetime win against Oklahoma, and also Oregon, who beat a 1-4 Washington State team. I get the first one, not the second.

Jumps of note:

Cincinnati jumped Ohio State with a win over also in-state Miami Don't Call Us "Of Ohio"
The Boise State thrill ride is already on its way down; Virginia Tech needed only an underwhelming win over hapless Duke to jump the mid-major
More of a fall than a jump, but now #19 Oklahoma continues to feed off of the preseason hype - they are the only two-loss team in the poll

Penn State moves up to 12 in the Coaches' Poll and remains curiously ahead of the Hawkeyes, although it's getting harder to feel bad for Iowa when they keep skirting by their pay check teams. Paterno and Ferentz have played very similar schedules, and while Penn State has looked much better against their cupcakes, it doesn't change the fact that Iowa is 5-0 and owns the head-to-head.

A note on the computers. I've always used Sagarin as my go-to computer ranking, useful for trying to describe teams not in the top 25 of the human polls, but consider me off-the-bat skeptical so far. I know computers need data to have a chance, and even a full season of college football isn't really enough for them to get comfortable, but like, really Sagarin:

Sagarin Rank*

1. Southern Cal

2. Alabama

3. Florida

4. LSU

5. Oregon

*This is combined rank, the one he likes best that includes "all" the data.

A note on the SEC-Bloc in the middle: LSU, Alabama and Florida have, between them, only played one game against an SEC team ranked in the top three in their division standings; LSU's win this week against Georgia is the exception.

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wow... I have no words after seeing USC at 1 in the Sagarin

what a crock. I hate rankings and polls. I am totally pulling for Cincinnati from here on out

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm more concerned with Okie State

At what point do we stop ranking based on “expectations” and more on what the team has actually accomplished this season? Let’s take a look at Okie State’s resume:

A win over a at-the-time ranked, now unranked BCS team in Georgia.
Wins over a non-BCS team and a FCS team.
A loss to a then-unranked, now-unranked non-BCS team in Houston. (Note that all 4 games are home games.)

Compare to a team that is also 3-1:

Wins over a non-BCS team and a FCS team. (Both at home)
Loss on the road to a then-unranked, now top-15 ranked BCS team (on the road).
Win over a (BCS) conference opponent – also on the road.

Somehow this team (Arizona) only received 2 votes in each of the media and coaches polls. Getting a little more love was Stanford at 4-1 – 3-0 in conference play, and their lone loss was on the road to a albeit less-than-stellar Wake Forest team. (Stanford maxed out at 50 votes in the media poll, good enough for 29th.)

I’m still a believer that there are only a small number of “elite” teams this year, and then about 30-40 teams that can beat any other team on any given weekend. My gripe is that the pre-season polls – ones based solely on speculation – create way too much poll inertia early in the season. We’re 1/3 of the way through the season – at what point do you stop ranking teams on “what they might be” and start ranking based on what they’ve actually done?

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Oct 4, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2005 was a perfect example of this....

Had PSU gone undefeated it would still have been Texas vs. SC. I think PSU could have beat either team.

Never mistake effort for achievement.

by Esteban d' Amur on Oct 4, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

at what point do you stop ranking teams on "what they might be" and start ranking based on what they’ve actually done?

I’m no expert, but from what I’ve seen for a couple of decades, the answer is never. Pisses me off.

It never gets to be easy

by chitownhawkeye on Oct 4, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Polls are so unreliable when the top is so inconsistent

by Mr. Rosewater on Oct 4, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Work it girlfriend, work it!

I love how that’s actually included as an instruction on that guide to pole dancing.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what the coaches say as they fill in their ballot

by Mr. Rosewater on Oct 5, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some Things

-I’m sick of hearing about the AP Poll. It doesn’t count in the BCS poll, so in my mind, it’s irrelevent. We’re #12, not #14.

-I’m in the minority when I say we should be ranked ahead of Iowa, I guess. Look, give them all the credit. They came in here, they made a play, they made us scramble, and they made the most of our mistakes. They beat us fair and square. But I don’t think they’re a better football team than we are, much like they weren’t last year.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Oct 4, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I should point out then

that we’re 13th in the Harris. And way behind in just about all of the computers that I’ve seen.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Oct 4, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see how you can say "they beat us fair and square", then assume we're better than them, all while they're 5-0 against arguably better opponents

They beat us. They’re undefeated. Simple.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the thing that puts them ahead of us in my book is not just the win but they did it in our house

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They Do Preseason Rankings For A Reason

There was a reason we were ranked as far ahead of them as we were. While head-to-head should ultimately decided it if we finish the same record, other than that, it’s irrelevent. Whoever wins the most games is the better team. I’m convinced we’re going to win more, and obviously the pollsters are too. That’s all I’m saying.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Oct 5, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This still doesn't make sense

We may win more than Iowa, but until we do they should be ranked ahead of us on account of beating us down in our own stadium, and for having more wins than us.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It Depends How You View The Rankings

I tend to look at them as how you’d expect things to play out over the rest of the season. Others, like you, see them as how the teams have played to this point, and I guess that’s what makes it fun.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Oct 5, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Were you drunk when posting this?

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the pollsters aren't convinced of that

The coaches are.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, you are in the minority

Iowa’s looked shaky in two of their wins, to be sure (shakier than PSU did in their nonconference snoozefests). But they’re still wins, and they beat a decent Arizona team and an Iowa State team that, while incompetent most years, is off to a reasonable start for a change. Depending on your opinion of Illinois, it’s entirely possible that Iowa has four wins better than PSU’s best (PSU and Arizona for certain, maybe Iowa State and Northern Iowa, who’s ranked #1 in 1-AA).

PSU may be better (although they certainly didn’t look it in their one test to date). But there’s no way they should be ranked higher based on on-the-field results.

by SpartanDan on Oct 4, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping that's a PSU fan anomaly

To suggest one’s team is ‘better’ than an opponent who beat one’s team, by double-digits, in one’s own house, is the frivoliest of fanly preposterations.

Worse even than other common PSU fan minimization comments on the refs and the weather.

/turning off wordmakeup machine.

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting Link

We’re 17th in the composite rankings at:
http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Hatch has us at 32!!

"What we've got here is a failure to communicate" Cool Hand Luke

by OlderBudweiser on Oct 4, 2009 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow... that just makes my head hurt...

Michy at 39 but ~~squad de Jtot~~ Notre Dame 27? ok… I guess…

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 4, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

+1 for "squad de Jtot"

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seconded

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Oct 5, 2009 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oooh sweet! Now I'm French?

and am cheering for TCU? Or is it Spanish, and I’m now a fan of a mid-sixties Bobby Bowden opponent?

by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, man, ask Erik not me

I don’t post ’em, I just rec ’em.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But I'm a Commenter!

Not a blogger.

by jtothep on Oct 6, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that the facial expression you had when Washington hit that FG to force OT?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 9, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh heh heh

wondered how long it would take you to catch up to this

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 5, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I'll root for

Frogs or Mexicans. Anything to shake the stank of this dirty Irish rep I’ve gotten (even tho I’m only one Cheeseburger Call and an OMG Freshman Wunderkind Lives For IT Moment away from fruition of my preseason irish pre dick shun).

by jtothep on Oct 6, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lmao... nice

laughed my ass off with that one, Jtot! I owe you a beer for that

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member

by TheMightyErik on Oct 7, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eh

At this point we know pretty damn well we’re not going to the BCS NC game, which means win the B10 or bust. The polls really don’t matter unless everyone else loses 2 games.

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Oct 4, 2009 8:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well we know florida, alabama and lsu will probably each have a loss

coming from each other. maybe florida escapes without a loss, but i seriously doubt it.

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 4, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Polls don't matter as far as PSU is concerned, maybe.

I still like to see fairness no matter who’s involved, though.

by jimbo2psu on Oct 4, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good luck with that

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Basically

the only way the pollsters aren’t going to put Florida in the championship is if Tebow dies or something. Kinda like LSU in 2007. They were the media’s darlings the whole season, but somehow even when they blow it at the end of the season, and it looks like they’re out of the championship, they somehow jump 11-2 Oklahoma and 10-2 Georgia and somehow within a weeks time are suddenly the best two loss team in the nation.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 4, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon Dawson, that doesn't make sense

If Tebow died, the media would put Florida in the championship game as a tribute.

It’s the “something” where we make our money here.

THINGS THAT COULD KEEP FLORIDA OUT OF THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME…..

- Tebow sued for malpractice by Mike Patrick after botched circumcision.
- Florida moved to Big Ten mid-season.
- Tebow filmed urinating on cross.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Oct 4, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

this line of logic should get its own fanpost

We decide when you hear the snap count...

by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1 for reasons 1 and 3

Those two events would be among the greatest events I’ve witnessed in my life.

by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 5, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In all fairness, they were the best two-loss team in the nation

Both losses in multiple OTs to teams that would finish 8-5, Georgia got blown out by Tennessee and lost to a 6-6 South Carolina team, Oklahoma lost to freakin’ Colorado, USC lost at home to Stanford, and West Virginia got Wannstached at home. (Missouri might have been a reasonable argument, except that there’s no way they could have gone ahead of Oklahoma, who beat them twice. Likewise, Kansas ain’t going ahead of Missouri, who beat them in the only real game they played that year. And Hawaii never lost, but that’s because their strength of schedule wouldn’t have been top 40 in 1-AA.)

LSU jumping everybody at the end for no apparent reason was more because the polls were wrong the first time around than anything else.

by SpartanDan on Oct 5, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As for Sagarin ...

His formulas are still in “Bayesian” mode (meaning there’s still input based on last season). That should change shortly (probably next week). If his rankings still look goofy then, by all means have at it. (They’ll never be as bizarre as Billingsley’s, though.)

by SpartanDan on Oct 4, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Pac-10

Year in and year out they play the hardest non-conference schedule as a group it pays off for them in early season computer rankings.

It makes sense, and they deserve it.

by NittanyBadger on Oct 4, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Computer Rankings

Hey this is the Hatch that has the computer system that was referenced above. I want to make 2 points:

1 – No computer ranking system can be fully reliable until at least 6-7 games are played by each team. Sagarin’s ratings (and all reliable rankings) will sort themselves out as more data becomes available, i.e., more games are played. Current computer rankings shouldn’t concern fans as much as human polls because they work on a different logic than the polls. In the Coaches Poll if #5 loses, #6 moves up and unless #7 notches a very win, in the next poll they’ll only move up one place. Computer rankings reassess all of the data every week, so one big result later in the season can have more impact over all computer rankings than it will over the human polls.

2 – I’m actually a rather big Penn State fan. The ranking of 32nd is indicative of nothing more than Penn State having played 4 very bad teams and losing to the only decent opponent that they played at home by more than 10 points. Penn State won’t get much of a computer boost based on their schedule until early November in any rankings.

by hatch on Oct 5, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs