IBM Presents: You make the (coaching) call
by PSU Mudder on Oct 5, 2009 12:25 PM EDT
38 comments
While watching RichRod kick the extra point to send the UM/MSU game into overtime on Sat, I wondered: Why didn't he just go for two points and the win right then and there?
After a team scores a touchdown at the end of the game where the 6 puts you one shy of tying the game, as a coach you have two choices: kick the extra point and send the game to OT, or go for the two-point conversion and the win right then and there. I think most coaches play it conservative and kick in order to avoid the second guessing, but is this really the best strategy? If you go for the two, you have the ball on the 3 yard line with one shot to make those 3 yards, and no chance of the other team's offense getting on the field. If you go into OT, you have a coin toss, and one way or another you both get the ball at the 25, meaning you have to move the ball a bunch on plays that have to average more than 3 yards each anyway, and you also have to play defense at some point.
Now I know the counter-argument is that by going for two, you only get one shot, and if something goes wrong, you don't get another play to make up for it. But so many things could go wrong on the extra point, on offense, on defense, that I think the odds are strongly in your favor to simply man up and take that single shot from the 3 yard line. I don't know the stat on percentage of two-pointers successfully converted, but unless your game played out in a defensive struggle where the only 2 TDs were scored by the respective defenses, I can't see how going to OT gives you a better chance of winning.
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If anything, he should have gone for 2 after the first TD
I wouldn’t have gone for it the second time because, as Cook said, Forcier was pretty gassed.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll buy that in that specific situation
with the rain and everything else up to that point, there were certainly some variables to RichRods call. But it seems in general coaches go for the less likely to win but less likely to get skewered for the loss option, which is to kick.
by PSU Mudder on Oct 5, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically
you should probably go for it, especially if you have a play in your back pocket, like most coaches do, that will probably work. Usually, it’s the play fake bootleg to the right, with the TE going for the back corner and a FB in the flats (seriously, it works, like every time), but if you go for it and lose, you look like an idiot. Coaches are wussies, and they play not to lose, more often than not.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Oct 5, 2009 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
RichRod is not out of the dog house enough pull a stupid stunt that could potentially lose them a game against Michigan State. Not that kicking helped in the end.
Where’s the Beer and the Bar-b-Que?
by jesse. on Oct 5, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a stupid stunt...
….like fake punting inside your own 30 yard line?
by hbeach08 on Oct 6, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a bad read!
Not RichRod’s fault!
/mgoblog’d
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 6, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the name of their special teams coach?
I want to know what name to put on the card this year when someone “retires” after taking responsibility for the team underperforming the expectations their fans had, even though it was totally not the defense that lost them all those games last year
by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 6, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 pt %
2 pt conversions are around a 40% chance of working. Unless you have a very good 2 pt conversion team, I’d go for the 50-50 shot in OT every time.
by gcdyersb on Oct 5, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is really situationally dependant
I didn’t get to watch the game, so I don’t know the specifics, but here’s how I see it.
If you are on the road (especially if you are the underdog), and you score at the end of a game where a kick ties, and a 2-pt will win or lose it, I’d reccommend going for 2 every time. You have the momentum on your side, and took the wind out of the other team, and if it goes into overtime your chances are less than 50/50 anyway.
This game wasn’t quite like that, though, as Michigan looked like the better team beforehand, and they have the big brother/little brother syndrome going on. If they miss the 2 pt, people would call DickRod an idiot for taking a risk like that against the little brother.
I still probably would have gone for it, though, unless Forcier was really that gassed (did they have any timeouts left?)
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 5, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Go for 2
I said they should have gone for it, and run a play for Denard, since Tate did look like he needed some time off. OT favored MSU for several reasons:
1. They lost a safety on the last drive and had to stick some guy in, who then blew the coverage on the TD. The break gave them time to regroup.
2. They have a better kicker.
3. They outplayed UM for roughly 90% of the game.
4. Tate was gassed, and hurt a little, and I think you try to shorten the game at that point.
5. With the way the game had gone to that point, a 2 point try for the win was like house money. Do it.
by Wlvrn99 on Oct 5, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
without a doubt kick it.
75%
Kick, and go to OT
36 votes
especially when tate is exhausted. you just scored, you have the momentum, why not ride it into ot. imo, they should’ve called a to during the ot drive to let the offense rest up more.
Meadville, PA born and raised.
by mikeissurreal on Oct 5, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No timeouts
Also, Tate being exhausted is one more reason to go for the win, I think. OT just means more plays to run, especially since they lose the toss and the offense had to come right back out.
by Wlvrn99 on Oct 5, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this I thought was very interesting on Spartys part. Why throw your D back out there when they just spent 2 minutes running around and getting scored on. Why not give them a rest. It paid off for them but I thought that was a strange decision
by farrellpsu on Oct 5, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The advantage to going second in OT is just too big to ever give up. You potentially get an extra down on each series if you know you need a TD compared to going first. And you know if a FG is all you need to win, and can call plays accordingly.
by Wlvrn99 on Oct 5, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is not physically possible
for tater force to be tired.
We decide when you hear the snap count...
by thedrizzle on Oct 5, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He lives for moments like these!
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dude... nice pull there... lol
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member
by TheMightyErik on Oct 7, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking the same thing while watching the game. they had the momentum. also, if you are willing to run a fake punt on your own 20 with one of the worst designed run/punt options, why not try to win a game you clearly shouldn’t have
by farrellpsu on Oct 5, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ever since Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
I’ve been a fan of going for 2 to win the game. That was so awesome.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
by millzners on Oct 5, 2009 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it's a lot easier to make that call:
1) when you hung with a team that nobody thought you should’ve all game long.
2) when losing means absolutely nothing to a coach’s/team’s image (even if they failed that 2 pt they would still be considered the “winners” of that game)
3) when your job does not ride upon every loss (like drod)
Meadville, PA born and raised.
by mikeissurreal on Oct 5, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like Droid?
/cornfused.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DickROD
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Oct 5, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your mom!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
by jtothep on Oct 5, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my mom is dead
Leukemia. you asshole.
/seriouslydeadbutnotseriouslypissedatyou
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Oct 5, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your sister!
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
she's got her own issues
seriously “your dad” would probably be the best to roll with.
NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.
by PSUdevon on Oct 5, 2009 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your dad's mother's mother's grandmother!
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Oct 5, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends
way too much on the situation. In most situations, I’d kick it. In this situation, I would go for two.
Michigan had the momentum going for them right then, but MSU had been dominating most of the game. Sending it to overtime was a chance for the momentum to die down and let MSU get it back together. When I was watching the game, I was almost 100% sure DRod would go for two, it felt like the right decision in that moment.
by PSUisMyHeart on Oct 5, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I never thought he would go for two
Tate was almost out on his feet. I thought five minutes in the oxygen tent before the OT started might have revived him enough to be productive.
Too many “bad” things can happen on a two point conversion…muffed snap, linebacker blows up a block, back slips on a cut…..or, as Tate showed in OT, a freshman QB tries to force the ball to the receiver.
Yeah, bad snaps happen on kicks also, but it is about 95% chance versus about 40% as somebody noted above.
Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.
Vince Lombardi
by PaJoe on Oct 5, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2 pt
on the road, go for the win
Bleeding blue and white and black and gold.
by raimman on Oct 5, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Special Situation
This situation was special. It’s UM vs. (as TWWL wants to keep reminding you) “little brother” MSU.
If Rich Rod chooses to go for two and they lose, the UM fans and alumns will point fingers directly at him for dropping the game to a rival school. If he goes for the easy kick there’s much less flack if he loses in OT.
Going for the extra point isn’t exactly the best move EVERY time, per say, but in this situation it was a must for a guy riding the fence as far as continuing a career at UM goes.
by smashtheguitar on Oct 6, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And that's one of the cancers for football coaches
when you are making game decisions not based on what is the best for that situation, but based on whether you will get fired if things don’t fall into place just the right way, then you aren’t coaching to win anymore, just coaching to hope to not lose, and that isn’t a very effective way to coach.
As Wlvrn99 says, run a Denard play if Tater is so gassed. The MSU defense was probably pretty gassed at that point, and Denard would have come in fresh. Sure his shoe might slip off, and everyone will know he’ll be running, but maybe he scores there.
Percentage-wise they’re not that much worse of going for 2, especially with momentum on their side (in a hostile environment).
by The JuggerNitt on Oct 6, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the bastiche isn't
going to tie his shoes I say send him in barefoot. It worked for Abebe Bikila & Zola Budd.
I’m just surprised UM didn’t go for two, cause they always seem to make that kind of crap at the end of games out of spite for me and crush all the negative juju I was sending their way.
One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's
by rahpsu92 on Oct 6, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, scUM only exists because of negative juju
Why do you think Ann Arbor was such a filthy, filthy whore?
by dawsonPSU10 on Oct 6, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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