Penn State Polls And Vegas Lines

by Kevin HD on Nov 1, 2009 9:29 PM EST in Football Comment 27 comments

Penn State jumped two spots to #11 in this weeks BCS rankings and holds the same spot in the irrelevant poll. The computers peg the team anywhere from 10 to 13.

Iowa loses some computer love to Florida and now sits with the second best 1/0 average. That hurts their chances of jumping Texas if it came down to picking between several undefreateds.

Vegas has opened most of this week's lines as well. Through Penn State's loss to Iowa, Ohio State falling to USC and their inexcusable stumble against Purdue, the related lines seemed to suggest the two teams are nothing but equal.

For example: Penn State was a 3-point favorite in the preseason "Games of the Year" odds; both were 17-point home favorites against Minnesota; there was a 6.5 point difference between the lines against Illinois, however adjusted for home field (three point swing either direction from "neutral"), and it's within half a point.

It looks tonight to be settling right around Penn State -3.5, or put another way, with Penn State maybe a half point better but holding home field advantage.

0 recs | Comment 27 comments | Add comment | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Oh, I can't wait to pick us to cover

I’m really confident about this one. Ohio State’s D will shut us down early, but they’ll get tired unless Ohio State suddenly develops a run game.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 1, 2009 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The public seems to like OSU

which surprises me. But then again maybe not.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 1, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate humans

Humans are vastly inferior.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 1, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was actually more worried about jNW than this game.

Deus nobiscum, quis contra?

by chocochuck02 on Nov 1, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

First thought was "uh-oh, OSU always plays us tough"

But thats not true. We always play OSU tough, even when we aren’t the greatest. jNW always plays us tough, even when they suck. Thats trending that makes a team dangerous.

Deus nobiscum, quis contra?

by chocochuck02 on Nov 1, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and Michigan is a 3.5 point fav over Purdue at home.

Michigan = Purdue LOL

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 1, 2009 9:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hummmm...

i was thinking it’d be 5 or 5.5.. has anyone in vegas seen tressel ball outside the last 2 games?

by mbailey71 on Nov 1, 2009 10:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you guys are going to murdelate tOSU. Well PSU -14 anyway. Have the guys who know things actually watched these 2 teams play? While your team is at it, I wouldn’t mind if you pounded them senseless, causing Pryor to play meek and confused in 2 weeks.

by txhawkeye on Nov 1, 2009 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ummm

Pryor always plays meek and confused.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 1, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

A week ago I would have said that about Chappell.

Deus nobiscum, quis contra?

by chocochuck02 on Nov 1, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But how can that be?!

He was supposed to be their savior. The answer to all that omgSEC speed that kept embarrasing them come January. What they forgot to check was that he could, you know, throw a football. It turns out that the ability to throw is a prerequisite to being an effective QB. God I hope you guys win by 432. Just crush his confidence beyond repair that way he can be added to the Iowa bitchmade collage the following week.

Fuck tOSU

by ajs1122 on Nov 1, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heh. Look at what we did for Illinois yesterday.

I’d settle for 63-14 again.

Deus nobiscum, quis contra?

by chocochuck02 on Nov 1, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sooner or later

the houdini act is going to bite the hawkeyes in the ass.

by mbailey71 on Nov 2, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The spread for the Buckeyes game is KILL

by Mr. Rosewater on Nov 2, 2009 12:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Then I sincerely hope we obliterate the spread

Deus nobiscum, quis contra?

by chocochuck02 on Nov 2, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

okay, the spread: Penn State - KILL.5

by Mr. Rosewater on Nov 2, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah i agree with you sir.. hard not to throw down on this one

by mbailey71 on Nov 2, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surprisingly low spread

I’m not prone to overconfidence when it come to PSU, but this is one where I think -4.5 or -5.5 would be more appropriate. I feel good about this game, kind of like the 2005 game. Last year I was more nervous.

PSU seems to be trending towards consistency, especially when it comes to turnovers. OSU’s biggest wins have been the result of big defensive plays. Certainly I’d expect PSU’s offense to struggle, but Clark won’t be throwing pick 6’s left and right like Wiscy’s QB. Put Bowman as a spy on Pryor, and I’m seeing PSU’s defense having an edge over OSU’s. Something like 21-13 or 17-10 would be my guess. Not at all one-sided, but one PSU wins as long as they stay even or better in turnovers.

by gcdyersb on Nov 2, 2009 12:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

USC

I find it hilarious how much love they get in the polls even after a bad loss like that (worst in Carroll’s career).

They’ve now lost two games in which they were favord including a 20 point blowout, their defense has given up like 120 points in 3 games, and they’re still 5 spots ahead of the nearest other 2-loss team (Miami) who has a much better resume.

"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.

by millzners on Nov 2, 2009 6:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't sell Oregon short!

It was a 27 point blow out. That stat about their defense is kind of shocking, and awesome. Especially considering prior to it they had only given up 43 points in 5 games, then 110 in the next three. Absurd.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 2, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kill Ohio State?

Let’s think about this.

Michigan is awful, worse than last year, I don’t care what their record is.

We just carried Northwestern for three quarters; Kafka doesn’t get hurt that’s a one score game. The special teams are a level of bad they need to invent a new word for. Let’s start off with a plan for how we recover when Ohio State blocks a kick and runs it in for a touchdown.

Illinois, Minnesota, Syracuse, Akron, Temple, Eastern Illinois….sucks.

Iowa beat us in typical Iowa fashion, which means we’re no different than say Northern Illinois or Indiana.

And we’re gonna kill Ohio State? This game has rude awakening written all over it.

Beat Northwestern.

by jesse. on Nov 2, 2009 8:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Debbie Downer showed up early this week

Michigan is awful, worse than last year, I don’t care what their record is.

Brian Cook on line 1 for you. Says he has something to talk to you about regarding Nick Sheridan and suicide kitten.

Illinois, Minnesota, Syracuse, Akron, Temple, Eastern Illinois….sucks.

PSU won easily against Temple. Temple beat Navy. Navy took Ohio State to the limit at the Shoe.

By the transitive property of football, that equals KILL. Just drink the Kool-Aid already.

by Kunk on Nov 2, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We certainly aren't going to be "killing" a team with this kind of defense.

But I’m also not sure OSU has done anything to convince me they are capable of blowing us out either. They snuck by Navy, lost at home to a USC team that was blown the F out on Saturday, did the same exactly work to Illinois and Minnesota that we did, and have that whole “lost to Purdue” thing to explain.

And I stand by the suggestion that Kafka wasn’t going to continue to hit 80% of his passes for the whole game like he did through 1.5 quarters. Combine that with the better tackling we saw and I still think we see almost the same exact result. There backup wasn’t exactly incompetent.

BSD

by Kevin HD on Nov 2, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

we are 4-0 ATS last 4 games...

…I’m riding the streak!!!

I’ll take PSU all the way up to -6.5

by hbeach08 on Nov 2, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Generally I agree, especially about 'kill' and Spec. Teams

Kill is an extremely strong word whenever we’re playing tOSU. Aside from 1994, which by definition was EPIC KILL. And special teams have been horrendous.

I’m not so sure about Kafka though. He was good, and I’d be willing to bet they’d have scored more points, but after being down at the half and adjusting for the second, I think the same thing would have happened: the defense adjusts, catches on to NW’s gameplan, and shuts them down. Like wise, we changed things up a bit on offense, and wore down the defense.

But anyway, despite the struggling offense of tOSU, I see this is as a defensive game like it was last year. If we get enough time for Clark to make plays, and pick apart their secondary, which, along with their LBs are probably their defense’s weakest point. I really won’t be comfortable until I see Clark throwing/completing successfully (meaning the O-line is holding their ground), and Royster being able to run strong.

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 2, 2009 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think OSU's place kicker

being injured is a much bigger deal than people are crediting for. In a slug fest between to great defenses like this game, the kicking game plays a huge advantage.

However, I’m still not high on the kool-aid like everyone above seems to be. tO$U didn’t play to their potential against usc or purdue.

Our special teams right now are, by far, our biggest liability. Blocked punt against Iowa (led to the game being won by them), blocked punt against michigan (almost let them back into the game), terrible returns, and you see where I’m going.

I’ll take the spread, but i’m not sold on it.

Meadville, PA born and raised.

by mikeissurreal on Nov 2, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs