BCS Scenario [BCS Poll Update]
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 12:21 AM EST
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PrintScratch USC, Arizona, Miami, Houston, and Utah. The BCS poll at this moment:
1. Florida, 2. Alabamas, 3. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincinatti, 6. Boise, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. LSU, 9. Pitt. 10. Ohio St., 11. Oregon, 12. Oklahoma St., 13. Iowa, 14. Penn State, 15. Virginia Tech, 16. Wisconsin
Florida, Oregon, Cincinatti, Georgia Tech, Ohio St., Texas are projected to be safe as conference champions.
Take Bama and TCU and put them in the safe column baring nutso upsets.
Take out LSU, because the SEC can't have 3 teams.
Take out Pitt because for Cincinatti to win, they'd have to lose.
That leaves Penn State, Boise, Oklahoma St., Wisconsin, and Iowa for the last two spots.
UPDATED THOUGHTS
-Forget what I said about Wisconsin.
-Oklahoma St. jumping us was a surprise for me at least. They haven't beaten anyone better than 6-4, and I'm not sure how beating Texas Tech dramatically increased their stock. Anyone have answers?
-Iowa is ahead of us as expected, but as has already been pointed out, it's largely irrelevent. We're in the top 14 and eligible, and that's all that matters at this point. If you'd have told me last week we'd be in this situation, I'd have been extremely happy and I remain so. There's still 3 weeks of football left, and we're already where we need to be.
-This thing boils down to us vs. Iowa. We've talked it to death, so I'll stop beating a dead horse.
The big question remains whether the Big Ten will get a second team in a BCS bowl for the fifth consecutive season. Saturday's national results certainly helped the Big Ten, as both USC and Miami are now out of the at-large mix. Unless the Big East gets two BCS entries or Texas stumbles in the Big 12 title game, the Big Ten should once again send two to the big bowls.
Last week, I projected Penn State, but Iowa's strong showing in Columbus under difficult circumstances has changed the picture. If Iowa can beat Minnesota next week to finish 10-2, I like the Hawkeyes to end up with an at-large berth.
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Yeah, it'll be close
I don’t think it’s significant though. Who is ranked where isn’t answering any questions for the bowl committes.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
Hard to say, how often are the polls that rational? Also, when you’re dealing with multiple losses for both teams, a common recent loss, and one team lost more recently to an average team (jNW) I don’t know that you absolutely must rank them ahead of us.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I would though
they by far outperformed us against OSU. Apparently voters disagree though.
by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 15, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
If we win next week, the only thing that keeps PSU out of a BCS bowl is the bowls choosing Iowa over us. Period. A Big Ten team will be on of the at large teams.
Oh, and there’s no well in hell that Cinci will be chosen as an at large team, even at 11-1. The have virtually no following — the Orange Bowl couldn’t give away tickets last season and the bowl had horrendous TV ratings. The loser of Pitt/Cinci is going to the Gator not be an at large BCS team.
Let's Hope You're Right
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
this is ABSOLUTELY right...
Cinci was part of the lowest rated BCS game in history – and nobody cares about Pitt. No way the non-winner goes.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
this year more than others.
They are going to be scared that people won’t travel.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Iowa will go ahead of us
However, you also have an Iowa team that will have lost two of it’s final three games and has an injured quarterback.
The bowl people will probably overlook Vandenberg’s true freshman performance against Northwestern, and look at his excellent performance against Ohio State. Iowa looked great tonight. They’ll have Stanzi back anyway.
I won’t count out a loss to Minnesota, although they’re not playing great football now.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions
You are saying a lot of things, but I don’t see anything there that has to do with “revenue” or “TV ratings” or “selling tickets”. Those are the things that bowls care about, not stuff like head to head results or conference placement or how a freshman QB looks.
Iowa is a pretty good draw and I could see a bowl choosing them over us in deference of their head to head win. But I would doubt it. Especially when you consider that their fan base has to be deflated coming off 2 straight losses after they looked like they were cruising towards a conference championship and even possibly a BCS championship berth (if things fell right).
by Laaaaazzz on Nov 15, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know I wasn't pointing out those things
I’m saying I don’t think they’ll care about the injured quarterback thing.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Basically, we have a similar opinion
I wasn’t as detailed.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
If Texas loses the Big 12 championship, they will get an at-large bid… that’s one less spot for us. They should play a fairly weak Nebraska team… but if Netrashka wins, they would screw us yet again.
Well Yeah
There are countless ways this could blow up, but this is assuming the chalk holds, this is the scenario.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
Big Ten still gets an at large bid. That scenario was certainly a concern before today but with USC and Miami-FL losing, that basically wiped out other contenders for at large spots.
Right now for at large spots, you have one SEC team (the championship game loser) and TCU/Boise St. The other two spots will be a Big Ten team and some other team (Oklahoma St? Virginia Tech? Oklahoma St? Maybe Pitt or Boise St?). If Texas loses in the Big 12 championship and steals an at large, it will come from the latter team, not the Big Ten one.
IMHO, the only way the Big Ten doesn’t get an at large bid at this point is if PSU, Iowa and Wisconsin all lose next week.
Yeah
Take a 2nd Big Ten team to the bank. The question is who it is.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
Except the Big 10 makes the Big 12 North look like a DIII school (does that even exist?)
They are horrible.
by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 16, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Certainly this year that's true (it's also true of the Big 12 south)
I wish KSU played Texas in the regular season. I’ve always respected Bill Snyder and unless Pelini actually fixes the Blackshirts, I think KSU could have a chance at taking over that crappy division.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 16, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
Except for, you know, Illinois...
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
You know what's funny? (Don't read that as smartassed sarcasm, it's literally funny)
I just looked at the conference standings last night, and Illinois is AHEAD of Michigan, despite overall records being different.
Oh, Rich Rod, you thought you’d come so far, and now you’re not even going to be bowl eligible after this week (barring some crazy Pryor-FAIL).
Funny story
I was just checking because I was curious, but if Kansas had beaten KSU 2 weeks ago, Colorado would still be in the running for the Big 12 North title. Technically, they could finish the season at 5-7 and still end in a tie with KSU and Nebraska for the Big 12 North title (KSU would still win).
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
#9,10,14,15,16,17 All lost
We should at least be up to 15 if not 14 this week.
I think Iowa (10) moves to 13, but USC goes to 18, Miami(14) goes to 17, Houston (15) goes to 20, Utah (16) goes to 19, and Cal (17) goes to 21.
PSU 14.
PRAY TO ZUG WE GET A BCS BOWL
B/c LSU is going to the Cap1 bowl and if we face them, there’s no chance we’ll win. It’d be Iowahiostate all over again.
"We hugged as grown men do. It was a great moment. Then, it was business as usual." -- LJ Sr.
I would love to draw Boise State, Georgia Tech or the Big East rep.
Basically, these teams kinda suck compared to the rest of the field (including us, I believe), and none have a viable D-Line. As we’ve seen, its the D-lines that kill us.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
I think Boise and the Big East are lose lose.
Tech would be awesome. Although I think they are VERY good, I think it would be a fun game.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
I agree with what you are saying (though I think we would match up okay with LSU too) but the problem is that IMHO the way things now look, we are most likely to go to the Fiesta if we make the BCS and will be paired with TCU. And I don’t like that matchup nearly as much as one with Georgia Tech, Boise St or Pitt/Cinci.
You so sure?
Their sacking defense is almost out of the top 100. And someone here was saying their fans were disappointed with their lack of pressure.
Their offense has been inconsistent all year.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
LSU?
The team that was losing in the second half to Louisiana Tech?
by gumbercules on Nov 15, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I was about to make that argument,
and it’s certainly still valid but LA Tech is probably a bit underrated. Their 7 losses have come to teams that are a combined 50-23, 6 of which were on the road, and the one that wasn’t on the road was Boise State.
That said, no Top 10 team should struggle against a 3-7 WAC team. EVA!
by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 15, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
So,
I think my point is that people can’t have it both ways on here. Either the WAC is underrated and we walk into an undeserved Fiesta Bowl ready to be pancaked by a Top 5 Boise State team, or we match up in the Cap One against an LSU team that suffers from many of the same problems we do. I much prefer the latter, but also I’m not in charge of balancing the ledger.
Also
The role reversal that comes with seeing a perennial national power travel 2,000 miles to pick up a paycheck and get pounded by an obviously superior mid-major team is the sort of story college football writers dream about. I would very much like to avoid writing this one for them.
WAC
The WAC is pretty bad and I think we’d solidly beat Boise St… but it won’t come to pass because it’s more likely that we’d face TCU in the Fiesta Bowl, not Boise St (who probably won’t get to a BCS bowl).
Where we would play the number one team in the country
it’s bullcrap that they aren’t ranked number one right now
whats funny is
didn’t joe talk about how they tried to get TCU on the schedule to replace E. Ill. before this years final schedule was released?
by whiteoutonly on Nov 15, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Don't sleep on Iowa
Our only chance for BCS is for Iowa to lose next week. Even assuming the B10 gets a second bid (which is a reasonable conclusion given the top 25 carnage yesterday), I can’t imagine a scenario where Delany lets a BCS bowl choose PSU over Iowa. PSU may be a better draw nationally but Iowa is not Utah and the Hawk’s did beat PSU in Beaver Stadium.
If they were hammered by OSU yesterday, it would be a different story but they took OSU to the wire. They won’t drop below PSU in the BCS rankings and they’ll place above PSU in the conference standing. There’s no way the powers that be let a lower team be chosen over the other within conference given the circumstances. BCS bowls may be all about the money but Delany’s job is try to maintain the mirage of prioritizing the conference results. Really, it’s only the right thing.
Delaney has no say. This is not the Rode bowl, so he has no pull here.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
We're ahead of them
in the AP and Coaches’ polls. I guess we’ll see if the computers bump them ahead of us in the BCS standings.
Luring recruits with my new "Posting HD" scheme since '08.
Irrelevant. Final BCS standings are only important for determining who is eligible for an at large bid, not who gets chosen. If both Iowa and PSU are ranked in the top 14, what determines who would go to a BCS bowl is simply who the bowl choosing a team prefers.
That said, if we both win next week, I expect PSU to end up higher in the BCS rankings than Iowa — despite the head to head results — though it will be close in all likelihood.
BCS standings don’t determine bids but they are a factor. I don’t think there have been many instances of bowls passing over eligible BCS conference teams for a much lower ranked BCS conference team. A quick wiki check shows the previous two worst at-large teams being ND at #11 and Ill at #13. Illinois snuck in the Rose bowl only because of our conference affiliation (can’t happen this year) and ND is ND (we’re not in THAT league for draw).
by 16andCounting on Nov 15, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant. The AP poll means nothing. You might as well site your own poll.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Relevance
I’d argue that sighting my own pole is completely relevant, if only to me alone.
Reminds me of that old Dennis Miller bit: nothing is less interesting to me than your sex life and nothing is more interesting to me than mine.
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
You have convinced me.
Your poll would be better than the AP.
by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 15, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant. We’re ahead of them in the Coaches, Harris, AP, and Miss Johnson’s fifth grade poll.
Deus nobiscum, quis contra?
by chocochuck02 on Nov 15, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant
Miss Johnson has a fifth grade pole. Decidedly NOT hot!
"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69
Irrelevant
Iowa is clearly better than you, but the media hates Iowa.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
Damn, I forgot to log in as Bad Rambler
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yup, but that's the messed up system we have...
Iowa loses late in the season, so they “must be punished in the polls.”
by NoLimitLion1 on Nov 15, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Although...
it’s all of 1 week after us, and to the same team we lost to, and by less, and on the road, and with a backup QB, and….
Looking ahead at the BCS rankings for tonight
It looks like Sagarin will be our dropped statistical ranking – ELO Chess has us ranked at #30 (meaning 0 points). If it’s any consolation, he was the one we dropped last week as well (also at 0 points).
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
Yeah
At this point, I think our ranking is irrelevent as long as we’re in the top 14. It’s all dependent on Iowa at this point. Are they even going to be eligible? At this point I still think they will, but the coach’s poll did not go well for them.
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
And it all depends on whether we can win at MSU.
I’m not speculating anything until we have a W out of Lansing…which, I’m not quite sure we can pull off right now.
by NoLimitLion1 on Nov 15, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
We need more pressure up front. Cousins has been great this year (Best QB in the Big Ten)
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 15, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well It's Not Fun To Talk About The Difference Between The Cap One and Outback
God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...
by Adam Bittner on Nov 15, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
If they follow the same procedure as last year
They’ll announce everything on Sunday, December 6th. The final games of the season (including conference championship games) are played on December 5th this year. This gives the voters, statistical rankings, and bowl game officials the time to digest the results and locked-in conference champions, and make the decisions on the at-larges from there.
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
Iowa beating us will have very little to no bearing on our situation
Remember Kansas getting picked over Missouri? I am sure it has happened a few other times too.
It’s all pointless anyways, still one more game for each team, plus all the other teams ahead of us still have to play to.
Black Shoes. Basic Blues. No Name. All Game.
"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."
Iowa 13th
we are 14th in BCS
How could Nixon know so little about Watergate and so much about football ?
yeah
somehow Ok state snuck up there. Guess the computers like em. Too bad Oklahoma will wipe there asses with em 2 weeks
by whiteoutonly on Nov 15, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Nope, just a lot of losses
Last week’s #9 USC, #10 Iowa, #14 Miami (FL), #15 Houston, #16 Utah, and #17 Arizona all lost. Only Iowa remained in the top 14.
yes but
OkSU was ranked behind PSU last week
by whiteoutonly on Nov 16, 2009 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
No Wisconsin in this poll???
They keep hanging around. Hell, they would be part of a 4-way tie for the Big Ten title if Ohio State lost to Michigan next week right?
Does anybody fear that USC will somehow jump back into the top 14 and shaft us?
I can see it happening.
"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."
-J.V.Pa.
No, because they'll lose to Arizona final week
and be completely out of the running.
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
What are the chances of USC going to the Sun Bowl?
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 16, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Definitely feasible
At the same time, it’s feasible that they get skipped over and end up in an even lower bowl game.
I’m still predicting Oregon State wins the Pac-10, so they’ll take the Rose Bowl. If Stanford wins out they might get into the BCS running, which would make everything crazy. But for my sanity, let’s say they don’t get into the BCS, which means the Pac Life Bowl would grab them quickly. Next is the Sun Bowl – they’ll take either Oregon or Arizona. And it’s feasible for the Emerald Bowl to pick the other (I figure one will take Arizona since both bowl games are played in Texas). That means USC would slide all the way to the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl, which is rather fitting, and Cal getting sent to the Poinsettia Bowl.
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
by IcersGuy on Nov 16, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In case you haven't noticed
I’ve become a bit of a Pac-10 junkie.
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
Eh
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl is good, but Christmas in El Paso would be awesome.
DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?
by ReadingRambler on Nov 16, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'm under the line of thinking
that the glitzy and glamorous Petey and friends would have “fun” time in Sin City.
"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."
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