hypothetical-ness...because i feel like it

by afields16 on Nov 17, 2009 5:48 PM EST Comment 55 comments

My TV didn't work on Saturday. A major storm knocked out my cable, and i was left to frantically refresh my blackberry for PSU updates. This afforded me plenty of time to let my mind roam a little bit. And I may have come up with a few hypothetical topics for discussion. I'll air them out there and see what you all think about it. Here we go...

1.) 4-win Purdue played 5-win Michigan State. Purdue needed to win their last two while MSU needed just one. Had Purdue won that game, both would have been 5-win teams, needing a win this Saturday. Purdue against Indiana (a possible win) and MSU against PSU. Now, it didn't work out that way, so this is a moo point, but if Purdue had won and become bowl eligible, MSU could add another Big Televen team to the bowl season. We all know that more B10 bowls means more conference money in the pot, and the B10 shares its money among its teams (I believe). What are the odds that Penn State (or any team in this scenario, since we know JoePa would never allow this) would allow MSU to "pull off the upset" and become bowl eligible? OSU, Iowa, Wiscy, and PSU all stand to go to high-payout games in the Outback ($3million+), CapOne ($4million+), Rose ($17million+) and Fiesta/Orange/Sugar ($17million+) any any debatable order. Northwestern is a lock for Alamo ($2million+) and MSU for the Champs Sports ($2million+). If Purdue were to join the mix, they could be invited to the Insight ($1million+). Theoretically, if MSU were to "pull the upset" against PSU, the conference would stand to profit. Obviously this can't happen now, but it could have. What are your thoughts? Discuss.

2.) A little research yielded these trends. The Big Ten is likely looking at 4 10-win teams. The SEC could get 3 if LSU beats both Ole Miss and Arkansas. The Nintendo 12, Big East, MWC, and MAC are all looking at 2 10-win teams (likely). However, the Big Ten will only have 5 7-win teams. This is fewer than the ACC (6), Nintendo 12 (7), the SEC (8), and PAC-10 (6), and even with the likes of the Big East, C-USA, and MAC. Only the MWC, WAC, and Sun Belt stand to have fewer 7-win teams (as expected). What does this say about our conference? Top-heavy or just mediocre and fat on an awful bottom half? Looking at our showing in big games, and other teams' reputation for the same, I'd consider joining the club that our conference is flat out lousy for the foreseeable future, with few "prove-it" opportunities to change the national perspective (except PSU-Bama, which could be VERY interesting the next two years). Is our conference's strength at the top just smoke and mirrors?

3.) If Michigan can surprise OSU this Saturday,

there could possibly be a 4-way tie for the conference title. I know the BCS is already decided, but has anything like that ever happened, where more than 1/3 of the conference shares the conference title?

Everyone chew on that for a little while. I'm gonna get some Advil.

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As for us having fewer 7 win teams...

I frankly believe that it would be a sign of depth – aside from a low-tier team (Minnesota) losing to Cal (CLOSE) and OSU losing to USC (not as impressive now, huh?), the Big Ten acquitted itself OOC as well as any, including a Michigan win over a then-impressive ND and Iowa’s beating of Zona. Then, we got to the IC games, and we saw that there are 2 teams ahead of every one (OSU/Iowa) and 2 teams ahead of everyone else (Wisc/PSU). As far as I’m concerned, in a year when there are no elite teams (IMO), the Big Ten has 4 good teams, where other conferences have 2 or fewer (SEC: Bama/UF; Big XII: Texas; Pac 10: Nobody; ACC: Nobody; Big East: MAYBE Cinci; Mountain West: TCU)

"Every player we have, someone-maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone-poured their soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world."

-J.V.Pa.

by psume06 on Nov 17, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Big East has two

I think Pitt counts.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 17, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are being a Homer...

Unfortunately PItt does count, and you can’t leave LSU out of the discussion if you are including PSU and Wisconsin in the Good pile.

I feel like its been argued before about LSU being not very good, but I really dont think we are that great either, either way you need to include them, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Maybe Va Tech and Pitt in the discussion.

I know a lot more than they know. I'm going to do what I believe is in the kid's best interest. That's what this whole thing is about.-Joe Paterno

by JoePaPa on Nov 17, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oregon in Pac 10...

….the Ducks are very good and will probably be favored in the Rose Bowl.

WE ARE.......PENN STATE!

by Nick7 on Nov 18, 2009 7:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In 1990, the Big Ten crown was tied between MSU, Iowa, UM, and Illinois

The Big Ten is top heavy. So are the Big 12 (One very good team, one good team, a couple of mediocre teams, a couple of terrible teams) and the SEC (Two very good teams, one good team, then a sea of mediocrity). While no one in CFB can match the competition of the, IMO, Pac 10, the Big Ten isn’t as bad as people think. I think we have more good teams than the SEC. We’re better than the Big 12 by far.

And I think we’re on our way back. Ohio State is Ohio State, Iowa will be loaded next year and possibly in 2011, and we’re doing well. That’s a solid upper level.

Dantonio signed a good class. Bielema is evidently not collapsing. Danny Hope looks competent. Who knows what will happen with Michigan.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 17, 2009 6:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

By "match the competition"

Do you mean top to bottom good teams, or just that they are all on the same level and hence have good competition.

I know a lot more than they know. I'm going to do what I believe is in the kid's best interest. That's what this whole thing is about.-Joe Paterno

by JoePaPa on Nov 17, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A combination of both, perhaps

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 17, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the athletic directors were in charge of who won and who lost

then maybe they’d let MSU pull off the upset, but there are probably very very few coaches who’d do that.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 17, 2009 7:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

So you think Curley is going to be wearing green on Saturday?

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Nov 18, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Delaney

were Fidel Castro, that could happen. But he ain’t.

by jimbo2psu on Nov 18, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not the athletic directors

But if the referees and replay officials were in charge it might happen.

"I want to eat some dessert." - Brandon Ware

by The Man with One Black Shoe on Nov 18, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

HHMMM

I’d say that the Big 10 has so many teams with 10 wins because we play so many cupcakes…. 4 of our wins at least were this….. right? and then we played the bottom half of the big ten as well….

I don’t think a lot of those other conferences have so many cupcakes on their schedule…..

For the Glory of Old State

by PSULion29 on Nov 17, 2009 8:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

look at Texas' out of conference opponents

or even Florida, the only team they play with a pulse is FSU and that is debatable.

by whiteoutonly on Nov 17, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Add Bama too that list too, other than V-tech, they're abysmal

And honestly V-tech has been ACC’d already, so even they probably shouldn’t look like as good of a win as they are.

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 17, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Va Tech destroys any game we, Florida, or Texas have played.

I think they should be left out of this. That’s a solid game and solid win. They certainly didn’t have to schedule it, see every other team.

by PSUinBOSSton on Nov 17, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop. No really. Stop.

I don’t want to get snarky, but people really need to stop with this complaint. Yes, the schedule sucked this season, but we’re not some sort of anomaly. Nor is the rest of the Big Ten. And funny story – this information is available on this intarwebs thing I hear the kids talking about. (Thank you Colley)

Here’s the first breakdown. Here are the conference totals for games played so far against FCS and non-BCS teams (including all Independents)

Big XII – 37
SEC – 32
Big X – 31
ACC – 29
Big East – 25
Pac-10 – 18

From there, I’ll take some liberties. I’ll remove any games played against Notre Dame, TCU, Boise State, Utah, BYU, and Houston. This list format is “conference – games against ‘tough’ Non-BCS teams – adjusted cupcake number”:

Big XII – 3 – 34
SEC – 1 – 31
Big X – 3 – 28
ACC – 4 – 25
Big East – 2 – 23
Pac-10 – 5 -13

So we’re still mid-pack. Not the least, not the most. What about games against just FCS teams? Only the Pac-10 had fewer games (4) against FCS teams. the Big 10 and Big 12 both had 9 games, SEC and Big East played 10 games, and the ACC played 14.

I’m not in the mood to play the “well, what about sucky BCS teams?” game. What constitutes a crappy BCS team? If you’re going to say Syracuse, I’ll have to adjust for games against Vandy, Maryland, Illinois and Colorado at the minimum (all ranked lower than ‘Cuse, at least according to Colley). And heck, teams like Indiana, Michigan, and NC State aren’t far behind either. But that’s just according to Colley – we could play this game with all 6 statistical rankings if we needed to.

At the end of the day, it’s completely unfounded to believe that the Big 10 is playing more cupcakes than the other conferences. All the conferences play at least 60% of their OOC games against non-BCS conferences, with the Pac-10 being the only conference that plays less than 50% against “cupcake” non-BCS opponents. We’re on par with or better than the SEC and Big 12 in cupcake scheduling. Face it – this is a giant business, and all the top programs will try to schedule whoever they can for the cheapest price to make the most money. That’s just the way of the game right now.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 17, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs

Well said sir, and a +1

by jimbo2psu on Nov 18, 2009 8:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While the Pac10 does

deserve credit for a better OOC schedule, they also play a round robin which allows only 3 OOC games vs. 4 for most everybody else. Would be interesting to see who they would schedule if they had that extra game to deal with.

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Nov 18, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that as well

that’s why I started going into some of the percentages, and the Pac-10 still plays a smaller (the smallest of the 6 BCS confs) percentage of their games against “cupcakes”. Mistakenly, I deleted the file where I did all the work for this, so I can’t really recall the other conferences’ percentages.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 18, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why don't you reprogram Rambler to seek and deliver it for you?

"For me the game wasn’t grounded in reality. It was about the uniform you put on that turned you into a warrior. It was about the mythology of the battle, the victory, the defeat, the struggle." - Mike Reid, PSU '69

by jtothep on Nov 18, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's impossible to reverse engineer me

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at the conferences that play 4 OOC games

(The Pac-10 and Big East unbalanced schedules gives each member another home game every other year, so you’d need to look at a two-year time frame to account properly.)

Big XII: 12 teams * 4 OOC games/team = 48
SEC: 12 teams * 4 OOC games/team = 48
Big Ten: 11 teams * 4 OOC games/team = 44
ACC: 12 teams * 4 OOC games/team = 48

Since I’m too lazy to look up all those schedules, I’ll just make the obviously incorrect assumption that all OOC games have been played.

% BCS Conference opponents (obviously off for above reason)
Big XII: (48-37) / 48 = 23%
Big Ten: (44-31) / 44 = 30%
SEC: (48-32) / 48 = 33%
ACC: (48-29) / 48 = 40%

% Adjusted Good opponents (again, off due to assumption)
Big XII: (48-34) / 48 = 29%
SEC: (48-31) / 48 = 35%
Big Ten: (44-28) / 44 = 36%
ACC: (48-29) / 48 = 48%

Not bad, but not as good as it could be.
Hypothesis: More basketball revenue allows for better football scheduling? More data required to test this…

by Aaron PSU on Nov 18, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember all of them

I believe the Big Ten has at least 3 more OOC games (Wiscy vs. Hawaii, Illinois vs. Cincy, Illinois vs Fresno State); SEC has I think 5 (FLA vs FSU, FLA vs FIU, Bama vs Chattanooga, UGA vs GTech, and SC vs Clemson, I think). I don’t think the Big XII has any more, and I can’t recall if the ACC had anymore beyond the ones mentioned against the SEC.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 18, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice

Good, strong finish as well.

by jtothep on Nov 18, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so to speak

by jtothep on Nov 18, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

TWSS

"God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy"

by NJ lion on Nov 18, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldn't mind....

seeing a 4 way tie.. Maybe the powers that be would see that a championship game is not too bad an idea.

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There's nothing to be afraid of"

by psu in the w-b on Nov 17, 2009 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Please please please

Michigan beat OSU

"God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy"

by NJ lion on Nov 17, 2009 9:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For what?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 17, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

cause it would be funny

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There's nothing to be afraid of"

by psu in the w-b on Nov 17, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

I don’t want to see those guys with the Corn and Blue Star Wars helmets happy

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

can neityer team win to be honest

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There's nothing to be afraid of"

by psu in the w-b on Nov 18, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

neither

"No, Donny, these men are nihilists. There's nothing to be afraid of"

by psu in the w-b on Nov 18, 2009 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know better than to hope, of course

But it would be funny. As it stands, I’m only realistically hoping that Brandon Graham destroys Justin Boren.

by jtothep on Nov 18, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why care at this point

Yes, having a 3-loss tOSU team in the Rose Bowl getting their asses stomped by whoever is going to win the PAC-10 would be hilarious, but honestly, I’ll get just as much joy out of seeing tOSU fail again on the big stage like they always do (yeah, I know, conference loyalty, but I simply cannot convince myself to cheer for evil)

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 17, 2009 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so who will you root for on saturday?

A-Mmmmmmmiiiiii….sigh
B-aOSUck
C-disappearance of all land west of PA, East of Indiana, North of that river connecting Pittsburgh and St. Louis, and South of Canada

"They stalk their prey to within two or three great leaps and then launch a lightning-fast charge, striking their prey. Victims are most often killed by suffocation with a prolonged bite..."--Hinterland Who's Who

by afields16 on Nov 18, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C probably isn't the best option

as Penn State will be on that land this Saturday (also, I don’t particularly want do disappear, either)

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 18, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can understand your not wanting to disappear

But remember that it would be of your own doing.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A and B

I would prefer tOSU win, but look bad doing it. But honestly I really don’t care at this point, I just want to hate all of them.

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 18, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how about Michigan wins

but then winds up having to forfeit the game for some NCAA violation

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 19, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not forfeit, vacate

We don’t want tOSU getting the win later.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 19, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

So long as it doesn’t somehow make me like or respect either of them, and doesn’t cut in to the monumental Mt. Everest of Hate I have for both of them, do whatever you’d like, I really couldn’t care less.

Btw, that like or respect thing would take something like the two teams defeating an army of Klan and Neo-nazis lead by the zombie of Adolf Hitler who was threatening to shoot a bunch of kittens with a machine gun, while kicking puppies off a cliff, and then somehow diffuse a nuclear bomb strapped to a baby (I don’t see how this part is remotely possible with the “educations” they give their players, I’m guessing they couldn’t even spell nuclear, let alone know what to do with it)

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 22, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In a perfect world

tOSU loses to Michigan, then wins the Rose Bowl. The Big Ten comes away with that signature win and an overall winning record in the bowls, and people (the media) start to admit the conference isn’t actually the Big East. I’ll be rooting for Michigan to start the ball rolling on all that….

by jimbo2psu on Nov 18, 2009 9:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Could you just explain that, please?

Why do you want Michigan to win?

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to understand it myself

On one hand, if Michigan wins, maybe Iowa, aOSU, IPFW, and Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College will let us see the trophy every other weekend. On the other hand, if I’m reading this right, if aOSU loses, they drop out of the BCS top 14 for sure yet still eat one of the spots, letting another team (USC, Va Tech, Wiscy) slip right into 14th that maybe normally wouldn’t and make it another hurdle for us to jump over.

by MadLionChuck on Nov 18, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Michigan wins ...

… aren’t we Big Ten Champs? I know this is lame. But it would be amusing that Tressel claims to have won 5 straight titles, and we would have won 3 out of the last 5.

"I want to eat some dessert." - Brandon Ware

by The Man with One Black Shoe on Nov 18, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then we would be in the same boat they were in last year

We would look like jackasses if we claimed a tie. Yes, I know it’s the Big Ten’s rules, but Ohio State still has tiebreakers over everyone. Also, I don’t need to tell you what happened in Beaver Stadium two weeks ago.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, what happened two weeks ago?

I had a vague memory of something bad happening, but I figured it was just a repeat of the time that I passed out at the donkey show and woke up in a Tijuana jail cell. Good times.

"I thought the kid we were using had the potential to be a good quarterback, and I blew that one." - Joseph V. Paterno

by leeharvey418 on Nov 18, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I blame Iowa for

this mess. Stupid Stanzi.

One man doing the work of 100's for the good of 1000's

by rahpsu92 on Nov 18, 2009 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanzi? Hell, you can't even blame Vandenberg

Trey Stross and Daniel Murray, man.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 18, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about Ferentz?

There was enough time at the end of regulation to at take a shot at trying to close enough to giv Murray another shot. What he didn’t want to see him sliding across his knees at midfield this year or something?

"the secret to loving your job is having a hobby that you really despise"

by nitwit86 on Nov 18, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, I have no idea why they were running out the clock

they got the ball back with about a minute left…wtf

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 18, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I really REALLY hope Pitt loses the rest of their games

i’m SO tired of hearing about how great Pitt FOOTBALL and basketball is this year for the simple fact that they’re ranked above Penn State…. PLEASE!!! somebody roll up Pitt and smoke the mess out of them!!

For the Glory of Old State

by PSULion29 on Nov 18, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

It won’t happen until, at least, the Cincy game. Their lock-down corner, Berry, is hurt and will, likely, not play against WVU. But WVU doesn’t really throw the ball. As much as I hate to admit it, Dickerson and Baldwin are pretty unreal. And Stull has been pretty efficient. Of course, he’s due for a 3 int meltdown performance. I’m hoping that the atmosphere in Morgantwon will provide the perfect backdrop for an upset. Although, I don’t think Bill Stewart is capable of a big win.

by Spats on Nov 19, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs