The Endgame (Outside Projections Added)

 It's unfortunate that every "good" weekend for Penn State since the beginning of the year has had to do mostly with other teams losing, allowing us to move up instead of us making our own statements, or taking our destiny into our own hands, but this weekend was a good one for Penn State nonetheless.

-Pitt's already microscopic at-large chances went out the window after losing to West Virginia

-Oklahoma State went fetal against Big Game Bob, eliminating the 'pokes from the BCS chase.

-Georgia Tech lost to Georgia, which, regardless of what happens in the title game, likely makes the ACC a one bid league.

So...

-Florida, Texas, Cincinatti, Oregon, Georgia Tech, and Ohio State are projected to be safely in the BCS as conference champions.

-The following teams are still in the hunt for the remaining 4 BCS spots (ranking reflects week 13 ranking until new standings are released): #2 Alabama, #4 TCU, #6 Boise State, #11 Iowa, #13 Penn State, #14 Virginia Tech.

-Only 3 games remain that could shake up the BCS picture: Oregon vs. Oregon St. in the Civil War on Thursday, Texas vs. Nebraska in the Big XII Championship Saturday, and Pitt vs. Cincinatti in the "River City Rivalry"/Big East Championship on Saturday.  If Oregon were to lose, Oregon St. would play in the Rose Bowl, and Oregon would enter the at-large pool, and would pretty much bet a slam dunk to steal a bid.    A Texas loss sends Nebraska to the Fiesta Bowl as Big XII champ and Texas to the at-large pool where they too would be a virtual lock to be selected. Finally, a Pitt win over Cincinatti throws the Bearcats into the at-large mix, but their lack of a following makes their status more uncertain than Oregon's.

Remember, ACC champ is tied to the Orange Bowl, Pac-10 and Big 10 to the Rose Bowl, Big XII to Fiesta, and SEC to Sugar (though SEC champ will surely play for MNC).

So, let's go through the scenarios:

Scenario One: Chalk Holds

Under this scenario, Oregon goes safely into the Rose Bowl, Texas into the MNC, and Cincinatti takes it's place as a "floater" because the Big East has no BCS tie in.  I would project the picks to go as follows:

Pick 1-Sugar bowl picks loser of SEC Championship.  Pick 2-Fiesta chooses between Penn State and Iowa (Big 10 can't have more than 2 teams in the BCS).  Pick 3-Orange selects TCU or Cincinatti.  Pick 4-IF Orange selects TCU, Fiesta chooses between Boise St. and Cincinatti.  IF Orange selects Cincinatti, Fiesta takes TCU as the highest ranked non-qualifier.  Pick 5-IF Orange selects TCU, Sugar chooses between Cincinatti or Boise St., whichever Fiesta does not select, and Virginia Tech.  IF Orange selects Cincinatti, and Fiesta selects TCU, Sugar chooses between Boise St. and Virginia Tech.

My bowl projections:

MNC: Texas vs. Florida/Alabama

Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Fiesta: Iowa/Penn State vs. Cincinatti

Orange: Georgia Tech/Clemson vs. TCU

Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs. Boise St.

Scenario 2: Ducks Hunted

If Oregon enters the at large by losing to Oregon St., but Cincinnati and Texas hold on, things get more interesting.  Either PSU/Iowa or Boise St. will lose a bid, and because of Boise's non-qualifier status, I project it to be Boise.

Pick 1-Sugar selects SEC championship loser.  Pick 2-Fiesta chooses between Iowa/Penn State and Oregon.  Pick 3-Orange selects either PSU/Iowa or Oregon, whichever Fiesta doesn't select.  Pick 4-Fiesta selects TCU or Cincinnati.  Pick 5-Sugar selects either TCU or Cincinnati, whichever Fiesta doesn't.

My projections:

MNC: Texas vs. Florida/Alabama

Rose: Oregon St. vs. Ohio St.

Fiesta: Oregon vs. TCU

Orange: PSU/Iowa vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson

Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs. Cincinnati

*Note: The Fiesta's selection between Oregon and PSU/Iowa would be a virtual toss-up.  My belief is that Orange would prefer PSU/Iowa to Oregon more than the Fiesta would prefer Iowa/Penn State to Oregon, and that the Orange and Fiesta bowls would strike a deal to make the above scenario happen, but that's just me.  It could go either way.

Scenario Three: Longhorns Lose

This scenario assumes Texas loses, and Cincinatti and Oregon hold.  This would make things pretty clear cut,, as Nebraska would move into the Fiesta Bowl as part of the Big XII's tie-in, and Texas into a very muddled at-large pool.  Though there will likely be an argument whether current #4 and non-qualifier TCU deserves a BCS title bid or not, for the purposes of this discussion, we'll assume they'll play for the MNC

Pick 1-Sugar selects loser of SEC Championship.  Pick 2-Orange selects Texas.  Pick 3-Fiesta selects PSU/Iowa  Pick 4-Sugar selects Cincinnati.

Bowl Projections:

MNC: Florida/Alabama vs. TCU

Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. PSU/Iowa

Orange: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson

Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs. Cincinnati

Scenario Four: Bearcats Busted

This scenario assumes Oregon and Texas hold, while Cincinnati falls to Pitt.  The Bearcats would enter the at-large pool, but there'd probably be a debate as to whether they'll stay in it as a one loss Big East team with a small following.  However, considering Cincinnati's competition would be a non-qualifier in Boise, and considering TCU, another non-qualifier will be safely ranked ahead of Boise, I'm projecting the Bearcats will just make the cut.

Pick 1-Sugar selects SEC Championship loser.  Pick 2-Fiesta selects PSU/Iowa.  Pick 3-Orange selects Pitt or TCU.  Pick 4-Fiesta selects Pitt or TCU, whichever Orange does not select.  Pick 5-Sugar selects Cincinnati or Boise St.

Bowl Projections:

MNC: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas

Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Fiesta: Pitt vs. Iowa/PSU

Orange: Clemson/Georgia Tech vs. TCU

Sugar: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Scenario Five: Oregon AND Cincinnati lose

This scenario will eliminate either PSU/Iowa or Cincinnati.  We'll assume it'll be Cincinnati because of the lack of a following compared to PSU and Iowa.

Pick 1-Sugar selects SEC Championship loser.  Pick 2-Fiesta selects PSU/Iowa or Oregon.  Pick 3-Orange selects PSU/Iowa or Oregon, whichever Fiesta does not.  Pick 4-Fiesta selects Pitt or TCU.  Pick 5-Sugar selects Pitt or TCU, whichever Fiesta does not. 

Bowl Projections:

See scenario #2.  Replace Cincinnati with Pitt in the Sugar Bowl.

Scenario Six: Texas AND Cincinnati lose

Here, things look much like scenarios #5 and #3, in that Cincinnati likely hits the bricks.

Pick 1-Sugar selects SEC Championship loser.  Pick 2-Orange selects Texas.  Pick 3-Fiesta selects PSU/Iowa.  Pick 4- Sugar selects Pitt.

Bowl Projections:

See scenario #3, and replace Cincinnati with Pitt in Sugar Bowl.

Scenario 7: Texas AND Oregon lose

This scenario means only Oregon OR Penn State/Iowa will make the BCS.  It also eliminates Cincinnati in the event of a loss to Pitt.

Pick 1-Sugar selects SEC Championship loser.  Pick 2-Orange Selects Texas.  Pick 3-Fiesta selects Oregon OR PSU/Iowa.  Pick 4-Sugar selects Cincinnati/Pitt, whichever wins the Big East.

Bowl Projections:

MNC: Florida/Alabama vs. TCU

Rose: Oregon St. vs. Ohio St.

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. PSU/Iowa

Orange: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson

Sugar: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati/Pitt

So if you're Penn State, what scenarios are you hoping for most?  Well, it seems the consensus is that Fiesta likes Iowa more than Penn State, and Orange likes Penn State more than Iowa.  While that's all speculation, for the purposes of this discussion, we'll assume it's well-grounded and make it our frame of reference.

As a Penn State fan, any scenario that gives Iowa/Penn State a chance at the Orange is best.  A scenario with Pitt winning the Big East and in the Fiesta Bowl would probably be the next most desirable, because the Fiesta Bowl would probably prefer a Pitt/Penn State matchup to a Pitt/Iowa matchup from a marketing perspective.  Finally, and scenario where Fiesta is choosing between Pitt and Penn State to play either a non-qualifier or Cincinnati is probably least desirable. 

Remember, none of this is binding.  The bowls can do pretty much whatever they want, but using what we know, I'd say the odds are very good that we see one of the seven scenarios I listed above playing out between now and December 6 when the BCS bowls are announced.

Overall, I'm pretty bearish on our BCS chances.  Five of the seven scenarios have either of the Big 10 teams in the Fiesta Bowl, where we're believed to be behind Iowa, and I would only consider Penn State to be ahead of Iowa in three of the seven (2, 4, and 5).  We'll see though, I suppose.

And finally, if you find fault with this, realize that it's 3 AM, and that I might have missed something.  I'm not an idiot, I'm just tired...

UPDATE: Here are CBS's projections, and here are ESPN's.  Both are pretty much in lock step with Scenario #1, only none have Penn State being chosen.  It's time to start rooting for upsets.

At this point, as I said earlier, Scenarios 2 and 5 are most advantageous for Penn State.  It might be a long shot that Oregon could open up the Orange Bowl, but there's a chance they could, so hope for that.

If Oregon wins, I see Scenario 4 as the next best.   Though there has been considerable debate as to how much weight Pitt could have in the Penn State/Iowa selection, even odds as low as 1% are better than what Penn State faces in the other scenarios.  However, IcersGuy adds a new scenario in the comments below, which I'm pulling up here:

I’m adding a new scenario, and one that makes a few large assumptions. Lets assume Texas, Oregon, Cincy, and Clemson win their respective conferences next week. Now for the big assumptions:

1st – The bowls are willing to overlook Boise State and their undefeated season in order to get a better selling match-up.
2nd – The loss by Georgia Tech slides them out of the top 14 in the BCS. With the #15 and #16 teams losing (Pitt and Oregon State), SWAG U slides into the top 14. I hope you’ve now guessed where I’m going with this….
3rd – The Orange Bowl agrees to take TCU or Cincy, because they’ll be getting an undefeated team. Ok, it’s really just for argument’s sake, but I was trying to find a reason.

This would be the bowl breakdown:

MNC: Texas vs. Florida/Alabama
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Fiesta: Iowa/Penn State vs. Miami (FL)
Orange: Clemson vs. TCU/Cincy
Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs. TCU/Cincy

A certain "rematch" in the Fiesta Bowl? Why not?

It's a longshot too, but in keeping with the "Dumb and Dumber" theme of the week so far, I'm "sayin' theres a chance!!!"

And for those of you who've been making fun of me in the Paul Jones fanshot...