Best Case Scenario?

by 16andCounting on Nov 8, 2009 11:16 AM EST Comment 21 comments

Everything always feels a lot worse that it really is the day after a crushing defeat. After reading the throw-in-the-towel-and-start Newsome post, I thought it might be useful to look at some bowl scenarios to highight why all is not lost. Everyone should remember is that this is college football and things never end up as they had previously seemed. Teams always lose games that you had projected as wins. Nobody should assume that the standings today will represent the standings two weekends from now. The consensus seems to be that PSU's best shot is the Outback, but I believe they have a chance to improve and make the Capital One. (I'm ruling out BCS bid btw because I just don't see it happening but in order to not violate my own rules, I guess it COULD happen under the "train wreck" scenario.)

Capital One: "Selects" the #2 B10 team vs #2 (really 3) SEC team. The belief is that this will be the loser of the Iowa/OSU game next week. Assuming that PSU wins out, a few not unrealistic scenarios could unfold for PSU to make the Capital One. All of these also leave out Wisconsin who I believe will end up with 2 losses but is least attractive. The "Select" portion here is very imporant because most scenarios require PSU to get chosen over a team that beat us - may or may not be realistic. The likely opponent will not be the loser of the Alabama/Florida game who will get BCS bids - my guess would be LSU who I believe would be a great opponent. This is the next best thing to a BCS bid. A win would turn the season from mediocre to very good.

Very possible: Iowa loses to OSU but wins the final game against Minnesota. PSU and Iowa tie for 2nd. I would guess that the Capital One would PREFER PSU but may be pressured to take Iowa. Either way, there's no guarantee Iowa gets the Cap One under this scenario. They would have lost 2/3 last games and probably be ranked lower than PSU.
Reasonably possible: A Stanzi-less Iowa gets crushed by OSU and faces a Minnesota team that potentially needs a win to become bowl eligible. All PSU fans know what happens when the team is thinking MNC and loses a devastating game late (see '99). Iowa loses last 3 games, PSU wins out and makes the Cap One as the #2 team in the Big 10.
Less likely: OSU beats Stanzi-less Iowa and then loses to Michigan OR Iowa beats OSU and wins out. Capital One selects from PSU/OSU who both have 2 losses. Considering they haven't been to Orlando in while, the Capital One would love to get OSU here I believe. I really don't see Iowa winning next week and I know UM has been playing very poorly but this game is at Ann Arbor and crazier thing have happened in rivalry games. Keep in mind, OSU just lost to Purdue so while they appeared invincible yesterday, they're no juggernaut.
Least likely: OSU and Iowa finish top 15 BCS, OSU gets BCS selection again and everyone in the B10 moves up one slot.

Outback: Selects #3 B10 team vs #3/4 SEC. Nobody wants to play in the Outback but most would agree that at least it is a New Years Day bowl and against a quality opponent. There are no guarantees that PSU gets the Outback but assuming they win out (which by no means do I think is a guarantee), this is the most likely destination. Likely opponent would be Auburn/Georgia.

Champs/Alamo: #4/5 B10 teams play ACC #4 or B12 #4/5. Since I believe this scenario requires another PSU loss, I don't want to discuss. On the plus side, my wife went to VTech and I could possibly make a nice trip to Fla and settle a long standing family dispute. Downside is that it's the Champs Bowl and nobody gives a rats ass about it (nor should they). Other possible opponents include: UNC, Clemson, practically any ACC team since they're all about tied, Okla. State, Nebraska, Texas Tech.

The summary is that while it FEELS like all is lost today the reality is that if PSU wins out and finishes with 2 regular season losses, they have a decent chance at getting quality opponent to finish the season. No matter how good the opponent, I like our team's chances with the reigns let loose and a senior QB in his last game. So cheer up and let's hope the guys rebound to CRUSH Indiana and Mich State!

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Comments

To Be Honest

I think Outback is the best case scenerio only because I’d rather go to Tampa than Orlando. The difference between the two is a two hour start time, but a drive to the beach in minutes rather than hours.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree. And, I can afford the Outback Bowl more than I can afford the Capital One Bowl.

"Want a donut go to dunkin donuts, want a linebacker go to Penn State."
- Cris Carter, NFL Draft, 4/25/09

by kmblue on Nov 8, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus the stadium is way awesomer

Went to the outback bowl when we played Tennessee and had a great time.

"Every player we have, someone—maybe a parent, a grandparent, someone—poured their life and soul into that young man. They are handing that young man off to us. They are giving us their treasure, and it's our job to make sure we give them back that young man intact and ready to face the world." - Joe Paterno

by Horse N Buggy on Nov 9, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got news for you dude

You ain’t goin’ to the Beach in Tampa in January. Your absolute best case on the weather is 70’s. The last two times I’ve been down there the weather was downright crappy. 50’s, cloudy, crappy.

It’s Florida, but it’s not Miami.

Beat Indiana, I guess.

by jesse. on Nov 9, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent Write Up

I’m in complete agreement with you here. I think there is a standing chance of getting into the Capital One Bowl against LSU- which I would LOVE to see. BamaHawkeye over at The Rivalry Esq. agrees with you, at least in post week 10. I am still strongly in mourning today after yesterday’s disappoint- and I live in Columbus. Which means I will not be able to escape it until next weekend. Odds a Stanzi-less Iowa wins out? I would love to see them steal the B10 title from Ohio State… I don’t think I could bare for them to even have a share of it again.

Joe Paterno is my adopted grandfather.
Nittany Lion Love,
Meredith

by PaternosGranddaughter on Nov 8, 2009 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you're overreacting to a loss...

… just like USC fans were last week, and not looking at the big picture. Because the Big 12 doesn’t have a serious candidate for a second BCS bid (Oklahoma State has an outside shot if they win out, but still has to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma; that’s it), and the big fanbase teams in the Big East and ACC (West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson) are nowhere near the top 14, while 2-4 non-BCS conference teams will be in the final top 14 (Houston and Utah are #15 and #16 this week), and Notre Dame’s loss to Navy (and forthcoming losses to Pitt and at least one of Stanford or UConn) has dropped them out of BCS possibliites, there are very few options that look as good to a BCS bowl as a two-loss Big Ten team. And even a two-loss Pac 10 team looks better than taking any of the Big East, ACC, or non-BCS teams that look likely to be available (hence even though Oregon seems likely to win the Pac 10, if USC wins out, they’re going to the BCS).

And because the Ohio State / Iowa loser is likely to drop out of the top 14 at least for a week (and drop behind Penn State), the BCS teams from the Big Ten will likely be the Ohio State / Iowa winner and Penn State.

by drothgery on Nov 8, 2009 6:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I'm still in depression land (actually I know I'm still there)

but I almost don’t want a BCS bowl. The fact that Ohio State has a clear, and almost definite path to being the Big Ten Champion makes me sick. I will be rooting for Iowa, but with Stanzi hurt (not the biggest loss in the world, but starting QB none the less) I don’t see them coming through with the win. In fact the only way I’d be happy right now is if Iowa beats tOSU, tOSU becomes a three loss team, and out of contention for a BCS game, and we win out, possibly (big possibly at that) allowing us to sneak in to a BCS game. And at this point with Pitt being higher ranked than us (UGH), the possibility of a Pitt PSU BCS bowl might actually be more realistic if we both win out.

But as much as I’ll be hoping for it to happen, I don’t think we get the BCS bid before Iowa or tOSU. So, for the next few weeks I’m siding with Rambler as a Hawkeye fan because my hatred of tOSU could not be greater.

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 8, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're underestimating the severity of the loss

That was a smack down on national TV by a team that most people nationally don’t think is a real powerhouse (fair or not). Not just any loss. In fairness, I wrote this before finding out we only dropped to 17, which is generous in my opinion. I understand BCS bids are about money and not necessarily performance but I think this may be the year the B10 doesn’t sneak in a team ranked 14th in the BCS. Too much negative national publicity and the only reason it happened to Ilinois was because the Rose Bowl was making the call. Assuming the B10 winner goes to the Rose, we’ll be at the mercy of the other BCS bowl who are not in bed with the B10.

by 16andCounting on Nov 8, 2009 9:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who else is going to get the spot?

A second non-BCS team? Pitt? Miami? The BCS rules put very strict limits on who can go to BCS bowls, and half of the options for at-large spots are going to be teams the BCS bowls won’t take if they have any other option. Whereas a Big Ten team will sell tons of tickets.

by drothgery on Nov 8, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if Texas craps the bed in the Big 12 championship

they’d still likely get a BCS at large. Texas has to win out to ensure the extra at large bid.

by Spats on Nov 9, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess we still get a share of the title if this happens right??

think about it if OSU beats Iowa and then loses to michigan. that gives them 2 loses if IOWA loses there next 2 games that gives them 3 loses. Is there any way we can go to the rose bowl? It just shows you how bad the big10 is this year.

by jetskijoe on Nov 8, 2009 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No Rose Bowl for you

The Iowa/Ohio State winner wins a two-way tie with Penn State due to head to head, and wins a multi-way tie with Penn State, Wiscy, and/or the Iowa/Ohio State loser due to a head-to-head sweep (since the Ohio State/Iowa winner cannot finish worse than 6-2 in the Big Ten, the other 7 schools are out of it).

I mean, I suppose hypothetically carnage of epic proportions among the top teams could put 10-2 Ohio State in the BCS title game, but that’s about the only even remote possiblity.

However, you would get a share of the Big Ten title if you win out and the Iowa/Ohio State winner loses the next week.

by drothgery on Nov 9, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The scenario you just described is completely impossible

And I don’t think we deserve to go to a BCS bowl. Let tOSU choke again in the spotlight. With the problems our team is having, I don’t want to be on the highlight reel of Suck.

by dawsonPSU10 on Nov 9, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BCS? Are you kidding?

That’s just silly. If we win out, we’re going to the capital one bowl. Iowa was just In Tampa last year, and Penn State has’t been to Orlando since 2002. If we drop another, we’re in Tampa.

We’re a big prize for either of those two bowls.

Beat Indiana, I guess.

by jesse. on Nov 9, 2009 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

BCS Bowl Matchups

So here’s what I have. Tell me where I go wrong.

National Championship Game: FloriBama vs. Texas
Big Ten Automatic Berth – OSU/Iowa
ACC Automatic Berth – Georgia Tech
Pac 10 Automatic Berth – Oregon
Big East Automatic Berth – Cincinnati

BCS Bid #1 – Floribama
BCS Bid #2 – TCU
BCS Bid #3 – USC

So who gets the last BCS Bid? I know the rankings would tell you Boise St. but that’s not how the selection process works. It’s who puts the most asses in the seats and most eyes on the television screen. So Boise St. is no lock to get a BCS bid.

So who does that leave? Can’t use LSU because you can’t have 3 teams from one conference. Same with Arizona if they win out. The loser of Ohio State and Iowa will drop outside the top 14 with little chance to climb back in with only one game left to play. Cincinnati winning the Big East means you assume Pitt lost which means they probably fall outside the top 14.

So what are you left with?
- Boise St.
- Miami
- Houston
- Penn State
- Oklahoma St.

Penn State is a legit option under those circumstances. Fair or not, it is what it is.

by catesinator on Nov 9, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs