Ok, this isn't well researched, so feel free to correct, but isn't 14 where you have to be to be BCS eligible?
The BCS has us at 18.
The BCS bowls need to account for 6 conference champions, so for the sake of this argument, take Florida, Texas, Cincinatti, Georgia Tecch, Oregon, and Ohio St. and move them into the safe column.
That leaves (BCS Ranking):
#2 Alabama, #4 TCU, #6 Boise St., #8LSU, #9 USC, #10 Iowa, #12 Pitt, #14 Miami, #15 Houston, #16 Utah, #17 Arizona and us for the 4 BCS at-larges. 11 teams, all ahead of us, for 4 spots? Yikes, but if the chalk at the tops of the conferences were to hold we KNOW:
Pitt would have to lose to Cincinatti
Iowa with an injured Stanzi loses to OSU.
Arizona loses to Oregon
Loser of Utah vs. TCU falls.
No way one loss Houston gets a BCS bid.
So winning out banks we finish at least at #14, with Houston probably out of the race regardless of its ranking.
That leaves 7 teams (including us) for 4 spots. The schedules of the teams ahead of us (assume TCU beats Utah).
TCU: at 4-5 Wyoming, vs. 0-9 New Mexico.
Boise St.: vs. 7-3 Idaho, at 2-7 Utah St., vs. 5-3 Nevada, vs. 3-6 New Mexico St.
USC: vs. 6-3 Stanford, vs. 4-5 UCLA, vs. 6-2 Arizona
LSU: 3-6 La. Tech, at 6-3 Ole Miss, vs. 5-4 Arkansas.
Alabama: at 4-5 Mississippi, Chattanooga, at 7-3 Auburn
Miami: at 6-3 North Carolina, 5-4 Duke, at 6-2 South Florida
I think we can pretty confidently move TCU and Alabama into the "safe" column, and LSU would be eliminated by the 2 teams per conferece rule (Thanks IcersGuy) so that leaves USC, Miami, Boise, and us for the final 2 at-larges. Is it a long shot? Probably, but stranger things have happened. I'm not giving up hope until December 5.
I'm not sure anyone saw the Boise game the other night, but they barely got out of there with their lives. The toughest teams on their schedule remain (Idaho and Nevada), and maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time seeing them get out of this unscathed. Maybe they do, but then that begs another question: Does the BCS want two non-BCS conference teams? I don't know. If it is all about the $$$$ I'd have to say no.