Posting On The Fly [UPDATE]

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 5:23 PM EST Comment 26 comments

Ok, this isn't well researched, so feel free to correct, but isn't 14 where you have to be to be BCS eligible?

The BCS has us at 18.

The BCS bowls need to account for 6 conference champions, so for the sake of this argument, take Florida, Texas, Cincinatti, Georgia Tecch, Oregon, and Ohio St. and move them into the safe column.

That leaves (BCS Ranking):

#2 Alabama, #4 TCU, #6 Boise St., #8LSU, #9 USC, #10 Iowa, #12 Pitt, #14 Miami, #15 Houston, #16 Utah, #17 Arizona and us for the 4 BCS at-larges. 11 teams, all ahead of us, for 4 spots? Yikes, but if the chalk at the tops of the conferences were to hold we KNOW:

Pitt would have to lose to Cincinatti

Iowa with an injured Stanzi loses to OSU.

Arizona loses to Oregon

Loser of Utah vs. TCU falls.

No way one loss Houston gets a BCS bid.

So winning out banks we finish at least at #14, with Houston probably out of the race regardless of its ranking.

That leaves 7 teams (including us) for 4 spots. The schedules of the teams ahead of us (assume TCU beats Utah).

TCU: at 4-5 Wyoming, vs. 0-9 New Mexico.

Boise St.: vs. 7-3 Idaho, at 2-7 Utah St., vs. 5-3 Nevada, vs. 3-6 New Mexico St.

USC: vs. 6-3 Stanford, vs. 4-5 UCLA, vs. 6-2 Arizona

LSU: 3-6 La. Tech, at 6-3 Ole Miss, vs. 5-4 Arkansas.

Alabama: at 4-5 Mississippi, Chattanooga, at 7-3 Auburn

Miami: at 6-3 North Carolina, 5-4 Duke, at 6-2 South Florida

I think we can pretty confidently move TCU and Alabama into the "safe" column, and LSU would be eliminated by the 2 teams per conferece rule (Thanks IcersGuy) so that leaves USC, Miami, Boise, and us for the final 2 at-larges. Is it a long shot? Probably, but stranger things have happened. I'm not giving up hope until December 5.

Updated Thoughts:

I'm not sure anyone saw the Boise game the other night, but they barely got out of there with their lives. The toughest teams on their schedule remain (Idaho and Nevada), and maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time seeing them get out of this unscathed. Maybe they do, but then that begs another question: Does the BCS want two non-BCS conference teams? I don't know. If it is all about the $$$$ I'd have to say no.

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One small note

If you’re putting Bama and Florida in the “Safe” columns, LSU is automatically kicked out of the running for a BCS bowl bid (the 2 teams max per conference rule).

IMO, I don’t want a BCS bowl this year. At this point, I’m very hesitant to put this team on the national stage against a solid opponent again this season.

"In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move."

by IcersGuy on Nov 8, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Haha Just Running The Scenario

Not sure I disagree with you, just pointing out the possibility.

I’ll make that correction though, thanks.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

/novel

Well BCS is out now and we’re 18

I’m thinking the PAC-10 only gets one spot.

Arizona and USC, Arizona and Oregon, Oregon and Oregon State, USC and Stanford, all look like games that can shake things up. The only way they get two is the scenario you lined up where Oregon wins it, and USC is selected as an at large. But if Oregon loses @ Zona (who beat the Stanford team that just beat them), then the winner of Arizona vs. USC wins the Pac -10, which, no matter who wins, means all Pac-10 teams but the winner of this match have 3 losses.

So, root for Oregon to lose to Arizona!

Stanford could win out, but they’re outside the Top 25 right now, a 9-3 Stanford probably won’t be in the Top 14. Same with Oregon State, except they’re in the Top 25 right now, but they might not finish Top 14 and I don’t think they get ahead of 10-2 us.

I think I’ve covered my bases… so yeah, if Arizona beats Oregon @ Arizona, the Pac-10 will only get one BCS birth, whether it be USC or Arizona.

If Oregon wins.. well, then like you’ve pointed out above, USC needs to lose and unfortunately they have no away games left but it could happen.

With that (I’m banking on it) and LSU being out for the reason IcersGuy mentioned above, that’s 5 teams for 4 spots granted all else lined out above happens, which actually, isn’t too far of a stretch (Cinci should probably beat Pitt.. probably, TCU should beat Utah, Stanziless Iowa should lose to OSU). I also really like Miami’s chances to lose at UNC or at South Florida (this one especially).

Anyone think there is a possibility that Iowa falls to OSU and is still ahead of us? IMO they probably should be, but, whatever.

I think you can also move Boise State into the safe column. And I’d also like to add the possibility of a need to worry about Wisconsin and Okie State.

Wow, this could actually happen, and it doesn’t seem too far fetched. Personally, I’d like to see us sneak into the BCS and get lucky, facing a team we match up really well with (someone without a nasty d-line please). But if we’re going to the BCS to die against a good team.. I’m with IcersGuy and wouldn’t really want to be in the BCS bowl.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 8, 2009 6:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think PSU (or another similarly situated BCS team)

would get in ahead of a second non-BCS team

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 8, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd hope, but I dunno

We’d definitely be banking on the greediness factor of BCS bowl selection.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 8, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's like banking on the greediness factor of Microsoft

seriously, basically the main opponent to having a playoff in the biggest college sport in the country is the greediness factor of BCS bowl selection. The reason Utah and Boise St and Hawaii routinely get snubbed from the BCS is in part because of the greediness factor of BCS bowl selection.

I’m not saying it will be PSU, but some BCS school with a huge fan base, even with 2 losses, is likely going to jump a second non-BCS school. (Heck, if the BCS had the choice, and wasn’t scared of the anti-trust lawsuits, they would probably exclude all of the non-BCS schools). I’m sure people will justify it saying “well Boise St hasn’t played anyone” but it will really be because of the $$$

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh, and I'm not saying that we DESERVE to get in ahead of them

just what I’m predicting will happen. I actually hope we go to the Capital One bowl, but for selfish reasons. First, I probably can’t go to the bowl game this year because of time and $ constraints, and if it was a BCS bowl I’d feel worse about missing that than the Capital One. Second, I would rather play LSU or whoever the #3 SEC team turns out to be than whoever they’d match us up with in the BCS as it currently stands.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol you're probably right

I just won’t feel confident about it until it actually happens. And yeah, we probably wouldn’t deserve getting in over them. LSU wouldn’t be too bad. I hear their d-line is struggling to get pressure on QBs. That’s the biggest thing I wish for in an opponent in our bowl game, a d-line that’s not that good. That’s easily our biggest weakness.

by PSUisMyHeart on Nov 9, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Iowa

I don’t see a 2 loss, Stanziless Iowa getting in over us. If he’s healthy, perhaps, but they’ll have lost 2 of their final 3, and have all those close wins haunting them from early in the season. When you’re undefeated, it’s easy to say “They find a way to win”, but when you limp to the finish, it’s more than likely you’ll be perceviced as lucky than anything else.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanzi’ll be healthy in time for the bowl. Iowa will get in ahead of us.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 8, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be close

First there is no guarantee that Iowa won’t lose to Minnesota as well. Plus, if OSU happens to give them a real beatdown this weekend then I think there is a good chance that they will fall behind us in the polls, possibly to stay, if we can win the next two games.

I think that Iowa will travel well but PSU fans also obviously travel well. The determining factor may be that this is more of a rarity for Iowa fans to go to a big bowl, but a lof of people made the trip from PA to the Rose Bowl last year, and with the season considered a disappointment by most, I’m not sure if the excitement will be there for people to make the road trip again this year for PSU’s bowl game.

by mundyscorner99 on Nov 8, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There is no guarantee that Iowa won't lose to Minnesota

But I find it quite unlikely, even with Stanzi out (which he may not be anyway). Win over MSU aside, Minnesota is falling apart. Weber is looking bad and they just took a beating from Illinois.

Iowa fans probably travel about as well as we do. However, in the end, I think that although the bowls would like our “name recognition” better the head to head win may determine it.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 8, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Disagree

When it comes to the BCS, the only tie-breaker is $$$$$$. It’s not about who deserves it, in which case you’d be right, it’d be Iowa hands down.

Just look at the Rose Bowl last season and the rating it drew. Against anyone but one of the mid-majors, you could expect something comparable in a BCS bowl with us involved. Could you say the same for Iowa? I doubt it.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you underestimate Iowa's draw

In 2005 they were picked by the Outback over Michigan because they draw better. Despite the fact that Michigan had the head to head.

DO YOU HAVE PRIDE, DANNY?

by ReadingRambler on Nov 8, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll See I Suppose

If we’re picking the bigger cash cow, I have a hard time seeing anyone pick Iowa over Penn State.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 8, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm, does Iowa really draw better?

especially for a national TV audience? Just curious about this, as I’m not disagreeing with you, but it just doesn’t seem “right” at first glance.

by The JuggerNitt on Nov 9, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Think The Question Is...

…are they comparable enough to us to warrent getting in over us? They probably deserve it more than we do, but the tie-breaker is the money we’d pull in.

God Created the World Out Of Nothing, Paterno Built A National Superpower On Cow Fields...

by fugimaster24 on Nov 9, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs